Photo Source: Environment Canada. 2009.

Honours Thesis Proposal Jacqueline Wightman

Environmental Planning Dalhousie UniversityFebruary 7th, 2013

Development Trends and Vulnerability To StormsCase Study Analysis of a Community in Nova Scotia

Outline Background

Storms in Nova Scotia Coastal Development Trends What is vulnerability?

Research Problem Goals and Objectives Method Expected Findings Implications of Study

Storms in Nova Scotia

10 Years of Hurricane Tracks: 1992 - 2001

Nova Scotia

Storms in Nova Scotia

Land-falling Hurricanes 100 Years of Tracks in Nova Scotia

Photo Source: Environment Canada, 2012.

Storms in Nova Scotia Land-falling hurricanes are not the only problem Extratropical storm remnants can also do damage

Photo Source: CBC News Online, 2012.

Remnants of Hurricane Noel (2007)• Damaged property and

roads,• Caused power outages

to homes and businesses in Nova Scotia

Storms in Nova Scotia Winter storms can do a lot of damage

Photo Source: Fundy Group Publications LTD, Groundhog ‘76

Groundhog Day Storm, 1976• Blow to Yarmouth

fishing industry• Thousands of dollars

of damage to this wharf alone

Storms in Nova Scotia

Climate change will increase storm risk: Storm surges will reach further inland due to sea level

rise Possibility of more frequent, intense storms

Coastal Development Trends

Number of people on the coast is increasing More people exposed

Use of coast in the 19th and early 20th century: infrastructure (wharves, docks, railways, etc.)

Today: residential, recreational, commercial and

institutional uses

What is vulnerability?

RISK is the product of Hazard – How big is the storm? Exposure – Will the storm hit us? Vulnerability – Can we withstand it?

All of these factors determine the RISK of damages

What is vulnerability?

The amount of destruction is determined by: Magnitude of the storm Our location in relation to the storm Infrastructure and development patterns

Research Problem

How has vulnerability to storms in a community in Nova Scotia evolved over time due to changes in development patterns?

What do these trends imply for future storm risk?

Goals

Goal 1: Conduct a historical case study analysis of the effect of land use change on vulnerability

Goal 2: Determine how the community can minimize its vulnerability to future storms

Map development changes over time including type, density, use and form.

Interpret land use change from a vulnerability perspective: Determine and identify vulnerable land uses at each

point in time. Identify the damages associated with every storm.

Compare past to present vulnerability, and make recommendations based on past trends.

Objectives

Method

Chose a community that is vulnerable to storms and has undergone significant land use change.

Yarmouth, Nova Scotia Strongly affected by storms Data available

Method: Land Use Change Over Time Spatial analysis of land use

change using GIS:

Geo-reference and map historic fire insurance

maps Aerial photos Current Zoning maps

Section of 1891 Yarmouth Fire Insurance Map Courtesy of Yarmouth Planning Department

Method: Land Use Change Over Time Categorize buildings based

on attributes that affect vulnerability: Use Building materials Permanency Investment

Interpret change in vulnerability over time due to changes in land use

Section of 1938 Yarmouth Fire Insurance Map Courtesy of Yarmouth Planning Department

Method: Storm Damage Analysis Create a list of major storms

that hit community: Environment Canada News articles

Compare storm damages to land use at the time, make correlations if possible

Storm Date 1900 1976 2001Damages- $$- injuries

- $$- injuries

- $$- injuries

Land Use

Method: Vulnerability to Future Storms

Analyze current vulnerability to storms Based on historic trends and current land use maps

Identify areas of concern

Expected Findings

Historic trends Vulnerability increases as the coast becomes more

developed More storm damages in areas where development has

changed from infrastructure/industrial to residential/commercial/recreational

Future storm risk Development occurring in a way that increases

vulnerability

Change in hazard? Fires more of an issue in the 19th century Flooding a bigger issue today than in the past

Implications of study

Understanding the past is key to planning for the future.

Past: The influence of a community’s development on its vulnerability

to storms

Present: Trends show an increase in vulnerability, how can we change this?

Future: Climate change

increase in storm extent = more damage potential