DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF ESTONIAN DISTRICT HEATING …€¦ · Estonia More then 1/3 of district...

TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

Dr.sc.ing. Anna Volkova, senior researcherAss.prof. Eduard Latõšov, prof.Andres SiirdeDepartment of Energy Technologies Tallinn University of Technology

DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF ESTONIAN DISTRICT HEATING REGIONS

25.09.2019

TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGYTALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

25.09.20195th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems 2

MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH

Estonian energy policy

DH inEstonia 65%

ObligotaryDH regions

Consumerinforming isimportant

Promotingmobile APP for DH inEstonia

1•Current DH

2• Individual heating

3•Future DH Planning:

*consumption*transition*production


CHARESTERISTICS OF DH REGIONS

• 145 regions have been analysed• from 0.25GWh to 1 585 GWh• medium sales 225 GWh• price ~53 €/MWh


LENGTH OF DH REGION PIPES


CHANGES


consumption transitionproduction

New consumers

Energyefficiencyincrease

Network renovation/replacement

Temperaturelowering

Productionefficiencyincrease energy

mix


Consumption will be decreased by 30% in 2030(Estonian Energydevelopment plan) renovation of existing building new building are nearly zero energy


consumption

Decrease of consumption will not be so fast Buildings with individual heating in DH region will have to connect to

DH New urban areas

Heat production in Tallinn district heating region: forecasts and reality


Collected data: yearly relative heat losses, length and average diameter of the networks, the share of pre-insulated pipes, supply and return temperature

Assumptions All old pipes will be

renovated and replaced by pre-insulated pipes

Supply and return temperature will be reduced

25.09.2019 6

transition

*V.Mašatin, E.Latõšov, A.VolkovaEvaluation Factor for District Heating Network Heat Loss with Respect to Network Geometry, Energy Procedia, 95, 2016

pre-insulated <20%

21.6%

Pre-insulated from 20% to 50%

22.3%preinsulated from 50% to 80%

22.3%

Pre-insulated >80%

33.8%

SHARE OF PRE-INSULATED PIPES

5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems


25.09.2019 7

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

current after renovation after renovation& toC lowering

Heat losses in district heating networkswith length <1000m



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40


Heat losses in district heating networkswith length 1 000…10 000 m



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Heat losses in district heating networkswith length >10 000 m


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Generator and coke oven gas 1010 1070 1050 1090 3280 4069 3876 3248 2056 2397Heavy fuel oil 176 143 174 66 31 13 9 13 41 25Diesel oil 1 11 9 112 120 169 158 195 85 109Shale oil 2423 2204 2468 3007 2853 1951 1876 1634 1386 1047Natural gas 17509 15494 16324 14933 15746 12244 12023 10021 9429 9233Oil shale 5154 4531 4790 4077 4046 3695 3665 3261 2858 3012Peat 1687 1648 1649 1419 1211 1074 1011 950 1006 1137Biogas 50 52 51 53 51 182 136 258 126 68Other biomass 500 300 400 937 1002 1312 1314 1296 1309 3009Wood 8216 9300 11664 13638 11462 11375 11773 12484 18865 18684

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Fuel consumption for heat generation, TJ

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production



Wood fuel >80%no Wood fuel <80%no noWood fuel 100%

Productionefficiency

is high

yes

Recalculatefuelconsumption

no

Additionalinnovative

options

yes

yes

Wood fuel ↓Non-fuel source ↑

yes

Wood fuel 100%

no

No need inpeak

boilers

yes

yes

Can bereplacedfully bywood

yes

yes

Can bereplacedpartly by

wood

Cannot bereplaced by

woodno no

Additionalinnovative

options

Existing fuel mix↓Non-fuel source ↑

yes

Existing fuel mix isthe same

no

Productionefficiency

is high

yes

Recalculatefuelconsumption

yes

3-5 large regions, calculatedmanually

yes

no

yesyes

production


WHY CANT BE REPLACED

25.09.2019

5th International Conference on Smart Energy

Systems

12

• Peat production -7 DH regions

• Oil shale power plant -1 DH region

• Shale oil production plant: waste heat /gas 6 DH regions

• Biogas -2 DH regions


RESULTS


MWh/MWh fin.consumed

a- current situationb- consumption decreasec- consumption and heat losses decreased- consumption, heat losses decrease and efficiency increasee- d + fuel replacement if possible


SHARE OF CARBON NEUTRAL DISTRICT HEATING REGIONS (145 DHR)


34%

Current situation

47%

Consumption is reduced

50%

Consumption and heat losses are reduced

72%

11%

Consumption and heat losses are reduced, fuel replaced


CONCLUSSION

Heat consumption reduction in building and network sector can make DH region carbonneutral without changes in heat production

Wood conversion (boilers and CHP) is still the priority option for sustainable DH inEstonia

More then 1/3 of district heating regions in Estonia are already decarbonized

When due to consumption and heat loss reduction, there is still need for low capacity peak boilers it will not be replaced and fossil fuel boilers remain for reserve and peak loads

Based on collected data (for mobile app) regarding existing situation generalisedapproach has been developed for calculating parameters, needed for app module


TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGYDepartment of Energy [email protected]

DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF ESTONIAN DISTRICT HEATING …€¦ · Estonia More then 1/3 of district...

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