Development of a water temperature model to predict life-history expression and production of Oncorhynchus mykiss

in the John Day River basin, Oregon

Jeff Falke & Kris McNysetNational Research Council & NOAA-Fisheries

Chris JordanNOAA-Fisheries

NRCNRCRAPRAP

Conservation and Management

ThreatenedSpecies of concernProposed threatenedListing not warrantedJohn Day basin

Current DPS Status

• O. mykiss life histories•Anadromous form listed• Resident form not listed

• VSP & recovery (McElhany et al. 2000)

• Population size• Population growth rate• Spatial structure•Diversity

• Diversity benefits•Ability to exploit habitat across scales• Persist through disturbances• Stay viable under long-term

environmental changes• Sockeye salmon (Greene et al. 2009)

Environment and Life History Expression

• Life history expression in O. mykiss• Little genetic evidence of reproductive isolation•Migration a flexible response to variable environment•Growth rate & efficiency, energy allocation control decision to migrate

• Need for a spatially and temporally continuous temperature model•Matches broad scales at which fish carry out their life histories•Entire life cycle influenced by cumulative temperature effects over time

Spawn timing Emergence Juvenile rearing Migrant

Temperature

Resident

“Decision”

John Day River, OR

Study Area

Water Temperature Data•Large spatial extent(584 sampling sites)

• Long time period(1991 – 2009)

• Lots of data! (~1757 loggers)

•Mean daily water temperature (MDWT)

John Day River basin

Land Surface Temperature (LST)

NASA

• MODIS Satellite Data (NASA)• Measures land surface emissivity (LST)• Spatially and temporally continuous

July 26, 2001

Stream Network• Spatial grain – stream segment (1-10 km)• DEM (30 m) & NHD (1:100k)• Network – ArcGIS and FLoWs v 9.2• Reach contributing area (RCA)• Catchment area• Linked temperature data to RCA

Modeling Stream Temperature•LST

•Interpolated for cloud cover temporal interpolation•Looked at time lags in daily data none•Aligned Land Surface Temperature to Mean Daily Water Temperature

•Water Temperature•QA/QC – excluded problem sites and/or days•170 sites available in 2001•Filtered data >150 days •Modeled 50 sites

Photo: J. Monroe

Modeling Stream Temperature

Observed data

Missing data

Temporal prediction

Modeling Stream Temperature•LST

•Interpolated for cloud cover spatially and temporally•Looked at time lags 0•Aligned Land Surface Temperature to Mean Daily Water Temperature

•Water Temperature•QA/QC – excluded problem sites and/or days•Training data >150 days (50 sites)

•Linear model for each RCA•MDWT = β0 + β1 (LST)•Fit daily for entire year at 50 locations

Photo: J. Monroe

Model Results

Model Results

Photo: J. Monroe

Model Results

Photo: J. McMillan

PredictionsMean dailywater temperature (°C)<predicted>

< 0

0 -1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

8 - 9

9 - 10

10 - 11

11 - 12

12 - 13

13 - 14

14 - 15

15 - 16

16 - 17

17 - 18

18 - 19

19 - 20

> 20

PredictionsMean dailywater temperature (°C)<predicted>

< 0

0 -1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

8 - 9

9 - 10

10 - 11

11 - 12

12 - 13

13 - 14

14 - 15

15 - 16

16 - 17

17 - 18

18 - 19

19 - 20

> 20

PredictionsMean dailywater temperature (°C)<predicted>

< 0

0 -1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

8 - 9

9 - 10

10 - 11

11 - 12

12 - 13

13 - 14

14 - 15

15 - 16

16 - 17

17 - 18

18 - 19

19 - 20

> 20

DiscussionPotential covariates to add?• Physical aspects (Static)

• Elevation• Catchment area• Gradient

Benefits of continuous predictive temperature models• Large-scale prediction useful for conservation and management

• Identify gaps in conservation efforts• Map species distributions• Assess human impacts • Target restoration opportunities

• Calculate useful metrics for fish biology• GSDD (Spawning timing & Emergence)• Classify thermal regimes• Bioenergetics

• Climate (Dynamic)• Precipitation• Runoff • Snowmelt timing

Photo: J. Monroe

Future Directions

Stream Temperature Food Availability

Growth Potential

Riverscape

Bioenergetics

Life-history Expression

Acknowledgments

Funding

Data/Analysis/Ideas Carol Volk (NWFSC), Jon Malmstedt (NWFSC)Marc Weber (EPA), Tom Kincaid (EPA) Jason Dunham (USGS), Gordon Reeves (USFS)

Photo: J. McMillan

Questions?