Developing the UK Energy System Energy System Modelling ......Focused on the integrated UK energy...
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©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies. Developing the UK Energy System Energy System Modelling Environment (ESME) Jo Coleman, Deputy Strategy Director
Transcript of Developing the UK Energy System Energy System Modelling ......Focused on the integrated UK energy...
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 1
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Developing the UK Energy System Energy System Modelling Environment (ESME) Jo Coleman, Deputy Strategy Director
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 2
ETI Delivery of engineering demonstrations of innovative low
carbon energy systems
Viable commercial operation
Setting strategic direction Creating commercial confidence
Innovative technologies, sub-systems and information
Which energy technologies do we need and when?
World-class ETI capability in energy system modelling and
strategic analysis
ETI - Addressing 2020 and 2050 energy challenges by...
Focused on the integrated UK energy system – power, heat, transport and
associated infrastructure
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What might the UK energy system look like in 2050...
• Decided by global developments – not just UK events, decisions and policy
– UK and global economy
– Industry and technology developments
– UK demand changes – scale and segmentation
– Global socio-political events
– ...
• The future is uncertain and we need energy system designs that allow for this
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Energy System Modelling Environment
• Addressing the energy trilemma
– Affordable, secure, sustainable
• Distinctive modelling approach
– Least cost optimisation (policy neutral) – Probabilistic treatment of uncertainties – Includes temporal variations – Considers geographic factors
• Internationally peer reviewed
• Informed by ETI members, advisors and
ongoing ETI projects
A national energy system design tool; integrating power, heat, transport, industry and infrastructure
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Offshore Wind
Marine
DE
CCS
Transport
Bio Energy Buildings
ESD
ESME integrates knowledge from across ETI programme areas
Local authority GIS Waste resource modelling tool Bio Value Chain Model
Single Building Thermal Efficiency model Buildings Thermal Efficiency Stock Model
Transport LDV Cost model Benchmark models of IGCC/CCGT/ USCPC 2050 Energy Infrastructure cost model
PLEXOS dispatch model Macro DE Heat Network Costing model PerAWAT Marine Array Modelling Suite Tidal Resource Continental Shelf Model Offshore Wind Energy cost model
In place Under development
Models informing ESME:
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ETI Members are using ESME and exploring ways to leverage further
• Underpinning business strategy and technology development choices
• Informing UK Govt policy – Renewable Energy Review – Technology Investment Needs Assessment’s – The Carbon Plan – Bioenergy Strategy
• Individual Members are developing own versions for specific countries of
interest
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Typical ESME Outputs
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New Peak Energy Model: Electricity Peak Reserve Margin vs Typical Demand by Technologies (mean)
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Waste Heat collection Rail (Passenger Electric) Lighting (CFL) Industry Heat Pump (Ground Source) Heat Pump (Air Source) Floorspace (Public) Floorspace (Commercial) Electric Resistive Heating Cooking (Electric) Car Petrol PHEV Car Diesel PHEV Car Battery Appliances Pumped Storage of Electricity Compressed Air Storage of Electricity Battery Storage of Electricity Wave Power Tidal Stream PC Coal with CCS Onshore Wind Offshore Wind OCGT Nuclear Macro CHP Interconnector Nordel (Electricity) CCGT Anaerobic Digestion CHP Plant IGCC Coal with CCS IGCC Biomass with CCS Hydro Power H2 Turbine CCGT with CCS
ESME results shown from development model: ESME v2 + peak energy modules, ESME v2 data
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Electric Vehicles - Home is the best recharge point location; duplicate or public recharge points add little
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PHEV Battery Range (Miles)
Work Recharge Point Only
Home Recharge Point Only
A Recharge Point at Both Home and Work
Able to Recharge Everywhere (Unlimited Recharge Rate)
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Food Shop
% of cars making 2+ trips to locationin a given week
Source: ETI analysis of DfT National Travel Survey
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0102030405060
Elec
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Largest Capacity Margin Day[29 Aug 10]
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Elec
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Minimum Peak to Trough Delta in Day[12 Apr 08]
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Elec
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d (G
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Maximum Morning Demand Delta Within 30 Mins[06 May 08]
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Elec
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Maximum Afternoon Demand Delta Within 30 Mins[07 Dec 11]
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Elec
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Maximum Peak to Trough Delta in Day[02 Nov 09]
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Elec
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Smallest Capacity Margin Day[20 Dec 10]
Dynamic demand control will be needed to fit vehicle recharging around variable national electricity demand
Existing Demand Profiles
Minimum ‘Ordinary’ Peak EV Demand Day
Maximum ‘Ordinary’ Peak EV Demand Day
Design target: (1) don’t add new peaks; and (2) improve system efficiency by levelling demand
Sour
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TI a
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of N
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d da
ta [J
an 2
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to D
ec 2
011]
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2050 CO2 target is unaffordable with today’s technologies
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on Climate Change target
Current technology capability
UK Energy GHG Reduction (including aviation and shipping)
2050 marginal UK system cost 2010 £/Te CO2
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ETI projects focus on reducing these
levels further
Successful technology selection, innovation
and development
2050 abatement costs can be acceptable if...we develop and apply the optimum technologies
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on Climate Change target
Current technology capability
Expected improvement in technology
capability
UK Energy GHG Reduction (including aviation and shipping)
2050 marginal UK system cost 2010 £/Te CO2
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Potential implications and development priorities for the UK Efficiency measures Waste heat recovery, building insulation, and efficient vehicles make a contribution under all emission reduction scenarios. ETI targeting through ‘Smart’, (including vehicle electrification infrastructure) and HDV projects
Nuclear Mature technology and appears economic under most emission reduction scenarios - primarily an issue of deployment (planning / licensing, supply-chain, finance etc) Cost impacts post-Fukushima need clarification – international approach needed ETI contributed to Nuclear roadmap & TINA
CCS A key technology lever given potential wide application in power, hydrogen and SNG (gas) production, and in industry sector ETI investing in separation, storage and system design – for coal, gas and biomass, also hydrogen turbine limits ETI developing business models and commercial frameworks to enable deployment
Bioenergy Major potential for negative emissions via CCS through a range of conversion routes – H2, SNG, process heat ETI investing in science, logistics and value models
Offshore Renewables Offshore Wind is the marginal power technology and an important hedging option ETI developing over £30m in next generation, low cost, deepwater platform and turbine demonstrations ETI developing marine modelling tools and technology
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For the latest ETI news and announcements email [email protected]
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