Developing the SEIS-Forward System in support of environmental assessments

Forward looking information and scenarios EIONET meeting

Prague 14-15 Sept 2009

Owen WhiteCollingwood Environmental Planning (CEP)

o.white@cep.co.uk / www.cep.co.uk

Developing the SEIS-Forward System in support of environmental assessments

Project has 4 objectives:

Support the EEA in publishing overview of forward-looking studies

Compile a catalogue of scenarios and develop criteria for scenario analysis and quality assessment

Provide quality assessment of forward-looking indicators Identify European megatrends

Developing the SEIS-Forward System in support of environmental assessments

Compile a catalogue of scenarios and develop criteria for scenario analysis and quality assessment

Provide quality assessment of forward-looking indicators

Compilation of forward looking

studies / scenarios

“Factsheet” completed for each scenario

Development of criteria to assess

scenarios

Assessment of scenarios and

catalogue

QA assessment of indicators not

already evaluated

Identification of gaps in indicator

coverage

Elements of scenarios

1. Description of initial situation / baseline2. Drivers for change / driving forces3. Description of changes (time steps)4. Description of future situation (based on 1,2

and 3)

Generally scenarios are developed in sets Scenarios are not meant to be “accurate” but

help users understand / gain insight into future developments – they inform rather than lead

Forward looking scenario “factsheets”

Factsheets have been completed for 72 scenario studies in total:

12: Ecosystems14: Climate

Change Adaptation

18: EECCA (E. Europe,

Caucasus and C. Asia)

20: “Pan-European” and

global8: SE Europe

Example of forward looking scenario “factsheet” (partial)

text text text

Scenario QA criteria - discussion

Many factors (e.g. theme, scale) not suitable for “value” judgements

Information available does not allow full or robust evaluation of quality of individual studies

Decision that a means of identifying the potential uses and usefulness of the scenarios is key

However, issues such as transparency & evaluation remain important

And, there is a link to evaluation criteria for forward-looking indicators (Table 2.1 in discussion paper)

There are 12 evaluation criteria for forward looking indicators

This text represents thoughts in progress, and helped identify

possible QA criteria for the scenarios

Common terms / names were identified where

possible for consistency

Suggested QA Criteria Possible Identification / Icon

Parentage A – Academic, I – Industry etc.

Type (narrative / modeling) “storyteller” / graph / both

Thematic focus Images representing themes

Specific issue(s) Images representing issues

Spatial coverageEU / Region / Country nomenclature (e.g. CZ)

Temporal coverage Date / date range

Language Language nomenclature

Status ?

Transparency Proposed 2 or 3 point scale

Accessibility and cost€, € €, € € € - and indication of access

Evaluation Y / N

Sustainability integration Env / Soc / Econ

Engagement (analytical / participative)

Book / group

May be difficult to represent visually,

unless broad categories are

used

Transparency indicates whether method is clear

and “replicable” – considered

important but difficult to assess

in practice!

Thematic focus also enables

assessment of whether scenario

addresses key EEA / EU policy

area

Status is intended to indicate if scenario is

updated or a one off

Criteria … to … “decision tree”

The scenario factsheets are to be uploaded into a web-based “catalogue”

Each criteria to be assigned “icons” to enable easy identification of scenario characteristics and quality

Using (e.g.) drop down menus, users can quickly identify scenarios suited to their needs

Next steps

Finalise factsheetsAgree scenario assessment criteriaDevelop icons or clear identificationUpdate factsheets to searchable

catalogue

This meeting is a key opportunity for expert feedback, ideas and opinion

Thank you for listening

For follow up and further information

Owen White

Collingwood Environmental Planning (CEP)

o.white@cep.co.uk

00 44 (0) 203 0044 727