Developing Climate Change Adaptation Options

March 15/2011

NEXT STEPS:

Prioritizing Options andDeveloping the Strategy

Our Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

Ecological Services

Climate ChangeVulnerabilities

Potential Climate Change Risks

SRD 2010-13 Business Plan•Core Business•Goals•Strategies

Climate change adaptation framework

Potential Climate Change Adaptation

Options

Step 1: Scope and Preparation

Sensitivity

Adaptive Capacity Analysis

Stakeholder Engagement and Communication

Step 2: Vulnerability Assessment

Likelihood

Adaptive Capacity

Scope & Scale

Current and Projected Climate Change Impacts

Ecosystem Services &

Socio-Economic Sectors

Current Adaptation Activities

Data & Information

Data & Information

Framework Terms of Reference

Assessed Vulnerabilities

PriorityRisks

Consequence

Governance Technology

People Process

Adaptation Options

Step 4: Adaptation

Options

Step 3: Risk

Assessment

Adaptation Options

• Purpose – identify a wide range of potential adaptation options that are appropriate under current and future climate conditions

• Outcomes of developing Adaptation Options will provide a toolkit of ways to achieve objectives by enabling the identification of policies, programs, projects, research, technologies

• Early adaptation increases adaptive capacity while reducing vulnerabilities and demonstrates effective risk management

Organizational capabilities for adaptation

• Depend on four critical areas:

• Governance

• People

• Technology

• Process

Governance

• Management, policies and processes to direct the activities of the organization

• Eg. Policy, resource decisions, licensing, approvals, compliance, quotas etc.

People

• Organizational staff or external stakeholders are responsible for managing risks.

• Eg. Training, recruitment and retention, performance management

Technology

• Refers to the application of science to adapt to the environment.

• Eg. Climate modelling, GIS applications, field and monitoring equipment and infrastructure

Process

• Describe how work is done. 1. Develop and deploy strategies2. Identify and assess risks3. Respond to risks4. Design and test measures5. Monitor6. Reevaluate progress7. Sustain and continuously improve

Key Projected Climate Change Impacts

Risk Potential Adaptation Options

Shifting vegetation and grazing zones

H People  Active involvement of the ranching community to address carrying capacity changes

Process Shift grazing zones from highly sensitive areas to adaptive areas (ie sandy areas)

Technology  Use modelling software to identify areas where grazing is more suited

Governance Alter rangeland management practices to target species at the edge of their range where early impacts will be evident

Adaptation Options Grassland exampleAdaptation Options Grassland example

Key Projected Climate Change Impacts

Risk Potential Adaptation Options

Drought H People  Educate policy/decision makers and the public to increase awareness of drought risks

Process Planting of drought tolerant tree species/provenances in areas expected to experience increased drought.

Technology  Development and use of techniques that can rapidly and efficiently identify drought tolerant tree species/provenances/genotypes.

Governance Amending Standards for Tree Improvement in Alberta, strata balancing policies, and regulations regarding planting of non-native trees on crown lands

Adaptation Options Forestry exampleAdaptation Options Forestry example

Key projected climate change impacts common to each business area in SRD

• Water quantity/quality (would encompass things like loss of wetlands, changing flow patterns, etc.)

• Habitat loss/change (including shifting vegetation zones, loss of species and genetics)

• Increased invasive alien species• Increased probability of extreme

conditions (drought, flooding)

SRD case studies• SRD climate change Technical team wants to test the use of the Adaptation

Framework by developing adaptation options for 4-5 projected climate change impacts

• Fiscal year 2010/111. Changes in forest cover in southern fringes of the Boreal Forest ( John Stadt

and Mark Johnston) 2. Shifts in vegetation zones and productivity in grasslands (Mike Willoughby

and Jeff Thorpe)• Fiscal year 2011/123. Changes in length and severity of fire seasons (Cordy Tymstra and Mike

Flannigan)4. Climate change impacts on habitat and how it impacts species at risk

( invasive species) Will be narrowed down (Lisa Matthias and to be identified)

5. Loss of locally adapted gene pools on commercial forestry (Deogratias Rweyongeza and Andreas Hamann)

 

Next Steps for today

• As a large group let’s discuss if we have captured all of the organizational capabilities (ie are we missing something other than people, process, governance or technology)

• Split into two groups (forestry, grassland) and discuss and capture adaptation options for 1. shifting of forest edge north in the boreal 2. shifting vegetation zones and carrying capacity for grasslands

• Within each group capture potential adaptation options for people, process, governance, technology or other?.