Developing an Integrated Developing an Integrated Urban Model for a Small Urban Model for a Small to Medium Sized MPOto Medium Sized MPO

Michael J. Clay, Ph.D. &Michael J. Clay, Ph.D. &Kimberly Mullins, Graduate StudentKimberly Mullins, Graduate Student

Community Planning ProgramCommunity Planning ProgramAuburn UniversityAuburn University

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TransportationTransportationPlanningPlanningProcessProcess

Requires “land use” Requires “land use” forecastforecast

No method is No method is without significant without significant efforteffort

Current method Current method uses information but uses information but does not return any does not return any informationinformation

Image from the ITE’s Transportation Planning Handbook, pg.97

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Planning ContextPlanning Context

““There is a dynamic relationship between There is a dynamic relationship between transportation and land use, as each transportation and land use, as each influences the other.” influences the other.” (ITE, Transportation Planning (ITE, Transportation Planning Handbook, 2Handbook, 2ndnd Edition, pg. 399) Edition, pg. 399)

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Planning ContextPlanning Context

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Integrated Models in Use or Integrated Models in Use or DevelopmentDevelopment

Salt Lake City, UTSalt Lake City, UT

Sacramento, CASacramento, CA

Portland, ORPortland, OR

Seattle, WASeattle, WA

Denver, CODenver, CO

Houston, TXHouston, TX

Dallas, TXDallas, TX

San Antonio, TXSan Antonio, TX

Detroit, MIDetroit, MI

Baltimore, MDBaltimore, MD

Phoenix, AZPhoenix, AZ

Ohio DOTOhio DOT

Oregon DOTOregon DOT

California DOTCalifornia DOT

Montgomery, ALMontgomery, AL

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Integrated Models: What are they?Integrated Models: What are they?

  

  

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Economic and land use choices of Economic and land use choices of interestinterest

LEVEL 1: Location choice

LEVEL 2: Technology Choice

LEVEL 3: Buying & Selling Exchange Choice

Exchange locations

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Land Use OutputsLand Use Outputs

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Case StudyCase Study

Montgomery, Alabama MPOMontgomery, Alabama MPO Montgomery, Autauga, Elmore CountiesMontgomery, Autauga, Elmore Counties

Population: 333,000Population: 333,000 58% White, 42% Black58% White, 42% Black 2.5 Average Household Size2.5 Average Household Size $38,000 Median family income$38,000 Median family income

Metropolitan Planning OrganizationMetropolitan Planning Organization One full-time transportation plannerOne full-time transportation planner Budget: $400,000 annuallyBudget: $400,000 annually Existing, 3-step Travel Demand ModelExisting, 3-step Travel Demand Model Some GIS data already createdSome GIS data already created

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Study Area

Alabama

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Basics of the StudyBasics of the Study

Funding: Funding: MPO has put up $150,000 for the first yearMPO has put up $150,000 for the first year Auburn University has put up $50,000 of “in kind” Auburn University has put up $50,000 of “in kind”

contributioncontribution

ScheduleSchedule Estimated 2 to 3 years to finish the projectEstimated 2 to 3 years to finish the project Year 1 will produce a prototype, demonstration model Year 1 will produce a prototype, demonstration model

calibrated with local datacalibrated with local data Year 2 will further improve the data and model Year 2 will further improve the data and model

calibrationcalibration Year 3 will develop a graphic user interface (GUI) for Year 3 will develop a graphic user interface (GUI) for

the PECAS model the PECAS model

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MethodsMethods

Gathered informationGathered information GIS FilesGIS Files

TAZ boundaryTAZ boundary ZoningZoning Land useLand use Transportation NetworkTransportation Network MPO Boundary MPO Boundary Municipal BoundariesMunicipal Boundaries Employment CentersEmployment Centers ParksParks Airport locationsAirport locations Building FootprintsBuilding Footprints Retail EmploymentRetail Employment Rivers/Lakes/StreamsRivers/Lakes/Streams School locationsSchool locations

Data FilesData Files

Census Transportation Census Transportation Planning Package Planning Package (CTPP)(CTPP)

InfoUSA Employment InfoUSA Employment InformationInformation

Building Permit dataBuilding Permit data PUMS dataPUMS data Rent Prices by type by Rent Prices by type by

zonezone

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GIS Data Autauga

Elmore

Montgomery

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Progress to DateProgress to Date

Currently we have an operational Activity Currently we have an operational Activity Allocation Model integrated with the Space Allocation Model integrated with the Space Development ModelDevelopment Model

Integration with travel demand model is Integration with travel demand model is currently done by hand—soon to be currently done by hand—soon to be automatedautomated

Current model runs from base year of Current model runs from base year of 2000 to 20102000 to 2010

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Future StepsFuture Steps

Further calibrate the model with better Further calibrate the model with better data—data improvements are on-goingdata—data improvements are on-goingAutomate integration between PECAS and Automate integration between PECAS and MPO travel demand modelMPO travel demand modelHold developer conference to get actual Hold developer conference to get actual building cost data—currently have decent building cost data—currently have decent estimates from building professionalsestimates from building professionalsCreate a mode share model for the local Create a mode share model for the local travel demand modeltravel demand model

Thank youThank you