Developing a Roadmap for Integrating Computational and In ...
Transcript of Developing a Roadmap for Integrating Computational and In ...
Developing a Roadmap for Integrating Computational and In Vitro Approaches in Risk-Based Chemical Safety Decisions
Rusty ThomasDirectorNational Center for Computational Toxicology
SSCT-SweTox WorkshopOctober 14, 2015
ToxPi
PRIORITIZATION
Interactive Chemical Safety for Sustainability Web
Application
TOXCAST iCSS v0.5
Tool TipDescription of Assays (Data) or whatever is being hovered over Prioritization Mode
Desc Summary Log
80-05-7 80-05-1 80-05-2 80-05-3 80-05-5
CHEMICAL SUMMARY
CASRN ChemicalName
80-05-7 Bisphenol A80-05-1 Bisphenol B80-05-2 Bisphenol C80-05-3 Bisphenol D80-05-4 Bisphenol E80-05-5 Bisphenol F80-05-6 Bisphenol G80-05-7 Bisphenol H80-05-8 Bisphenol I80-05-9 Bisphenol J
A B C D E G HF
1 1 1 1 1 1 11
SCORING
APPLY
Stud
ies
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. EPA
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Multiple Destinations Necessary to Address Diverse Regulatory Needs…
• Multiple drivers shape assessment needs– Regulatory demands– Economic considerations– Multiple applications
• Chemical assessments are “fit-for-purpose”– Prioritization (e.g., EDSP, PMN, SNUR)– Screening-level assessments (e.g., CCL,
GreenChem)– Provisional assessments (e.g., PPRTVs)– Toxicity assessments (e.g., IRIS)– Risk assessments (e.g., MCLs,
pesticides)
National Center forComputational Toxicology
2
Common Elements are Considered Across Many Decision Contexts
Phys-Chem Properties
HazardDose
Response
PKExposure
Uncertainty & Variability
ScreeningAssessment
PrioritizationRisk
Assessment
National Center forComputational Toxicology
But, the Current Infrastructure is Antiquated and Inefficient
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Perc
ent o
f Che
mic
als
Acute CancerGentox Dev ToxRepro Tox
Judson, et al EHP (2010)
... and cannot efficiently assess safety of all the existing chemicals or keep pace with those being developed
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010| | | | | | | | |
Acute toxicity studies (LD50) developed to
standardized batches of pharmaceuticals
Genotoxicityassays
developed
Draize test introduced for eye
irritants
Rodent cancer bioassay
introduced
Continuous breeding studies for reproductive
toxicity
Thalidomide led to testing of
pharmaceuticals for developmental
toxicity
Current testing paradigm does not incorporate advances in technology and does not provide mechanistic data
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Infrastructure Must Be Flexible and On a Scale Not Yet Employed in Tox
National Center forComputational Toxicology
5
Need to Start With High Quality Chemical Foundation
Quality of Structure-CAS Mappings Chemical Structure & Property Database
• DSSTox database of over 1 million chemical structure-ID mappings
• DSSTox QC flags indicate confidence in structural associations
• Database of phys-chem property predictions and experimental measurements with QC flags (coming soon)
0% 1% 3%
10%
56%
30%DSSTox_High
DSSTox_Low
Public_High
Public_Medium
Public_Low
Public_Untrusted
National Center forComputational Toxicology
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Need to Start With High Quality Chemical Foundation
Pass = C (75%) or greaterFail = D, F, Ac, Bc, Cc
52%
6%3%
39%
Pass Fail Degrade ND
Analytical QC of Chemical Library
• EPA ToxCast chemical screening library of 3,729 unique chemicals
National Center forComputational Toxicology
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Biological Responsecell proliferation and death
cell differentiationEnzymatic activity
mitochondrial depolarizationprotein stabilization
oxidative phosphorylationreporter gene activationgene expression (qNPA)
receptor bindingreceptor activitysteroidogenesis
Target Familyresponse Element
transportercytokineskinases
nuclear receptorCYP450 / ADMEcholinesterasephosphatases
proteasesXME metabolism
GPCRsion channels
Assay Designviability reporter
morphology reporterconformation reporter
enzyme reportermembrane potential reporter
binding reporterinducible reporter
Cell Formatcell free cell lines
primary cellscomplex cultures
free embryos
High-Throughput Bioactivity Screening as an Indicator of Hazard
ToxCast
Concentration
Res
pons
e
~700 Cell & biochemical
assays
~2,000 Chemicals Hazard
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Lots of Possible Research to Highlight
Promiscuity
Estrogen Receptor
Thyroid Peroxidase
National Center forComputational Toxicology
9
Most Environmental Chemicals are Nonselective for Biological Targets
ToxCast
Concentration
Res
pons
e
~700 Cell & biochemical
assays
~2,000 Chemicals
0.01 0.1 1 100.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Concentration to Activate First AssayConcentration to Activate 10% of Assays
Cum
ulat
ive
Frac
tion
of C
hem
ical
s~80% with < 3-fold ratio
Nonselective
Selective
National Center forComputational Toxicology
In Vitro Assay Selectivity as a Starting Point for AOPs
Selectively Activated In Vitro Assays
Selective Chemical
DefineMode-of-Action
Confirm Human Relevance and Derive
Point-of-Departure
Key Events
0.01 0.1 1 100.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Concentration to Activate First AssayConcentration to Activate 10% of Assays
Cum
ulat
ive
Frac
tion
of C
hem
ical
s
~80% with < 3-fold ratio
Nonselective
Selective
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Computational Modeling to Integrate Upstream Events in ER AOP
ER Receptor Binding(Agonist)
Dimerization
CofactorRecruitment
DNA Binding
RNA Transcription
Protein Production
ER-inducedProliferation
R3
R1
R5
R7
R8
R6
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
N6
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A12
A13
A14
A15
A16
ε3
A11
Receptor (Direct Molecular Interaction)
Intermediate Process
Assay
ER agonist pathway
Interference pathway
Noise Process
ER antagonist pathway
R2
N7
ER Receptor Binding
(Antagonist)
A17
A18
Dimerization
N8
N9DNA Binding
CofactorRecruitment
N10AntagonistTranscriptionSuppression
R4
R9
• 18 ToxCast/Tox21 in vitro assays measure ER-related activity
• Screened ~2,000 total chemicals• 38 in vitro reference chemicals• 39 in vivo reference chemicals
Judson et al., Tox Sci. In Press
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Computational Modeling to Integrate Upstream Events in ER AOP
ER Receptor Binding(Agonist)
Dimerization
CofactorRecruitment
DNA Binding
RNA Transcription
Protein Production
ER-inducedProliferation
R3
R1
R5
R7
R8
R6
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
N6
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A12
A13
A14
A15
A16
ε3
A11
Receptor (Direct Molecular Interaction)
Intermediate Process
Assay
ER agonist pathway
Interference pathway
Noise Process
ER antagonist pathway
R2
N7
ER Receptor Binding
(Antagonist)
A17
A18
Dimerization
N8
N9DNA Binding
CofactorRecruitment
N10AntagonistTranscriptionSuppression
R4
R9
18 ToxCast/Tox21 In Vitro Assays Measure ER-Related Activity True Positive 26 (25)
True Negative 11 (11)
False Positive 1 (0)
False Negative 2 (2)
Accuracy 0.93 (0.95)
Sensitivity 0.93 (0.93)
Specificity 0.92 (1.0)
True Positive 29 (29)
True Negative 8 (8)
False Positive 5 (1)
False Negative 1 (1)
Accuracy 0.86 (0.95)
Sensitivity 0.97 (0.97)
Specificity 0.67 (0.89)
In Vitro Reference Chemicals*
In Vivo Reference Chemicals*
Judson et al., Tox Sci. In PressBrowne et al., ES&T. 2015
*Values in parentheses exclude inconclusive chemicals
National Center forComputational Toxicology
AOP Network for Thyroid Hormone Disruption
Paul et al., In Review
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Identification of Selective TPO Inhibitors
Paul et al., In Review
National Center forComputational Toxicology
What About the Non-Selective Chemicals?
?????????
Nonselective Chemical
Define Point-of-DepartureBMR
BMDBMDL
0.01 0.1 1 100.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Concentration to Activate First AssayConcentration to Activate 10% of Assays
Cum
ulat
ive
Frac
tion
of C
hem
ical
s
~80% with < 3-fold ratio
Nonselective
Selective
Most sensitive response generally protective on a
dose level
Specific adverse outcome not reliably
predicted
Absence of activity difficult to interpret
National Center forComputational Toxicology
16
Efforts to Ensure HTS Data Quality and Increase Transparency
• Public release of Tox21 and ToxCast data on PubChem and EPA web site (raw and processed data)
• ToxCast data analysis pipeline has been completely revamped
• More statistically rigorous and less prone to outliers
• Data quality flags to indicate concerns with chemical purity and identity, noisy data, systematic assay errors, and activity in range of cytotoxicity
• Available for download as an R package
• Release of ToxCast “Owner’s Manual”• Chemical Procurement and QC
• Data Analysis
• Assay Characteristics and Performance
• External audit on ToxCast data and data analysis pipeline
• Continued offering of webinars and workshops to educate stakeholders on high-throughput screening data analysis and interpretation
FLAGS:Only one conc above baseline, activeBorderline active
National Center forComputational Toxicology
17
Efforts to Address Metabolism Challenge
ToxCast
Concentration
Res
pons
e
~700 Cell & biochemical
assays
~2,000 Chemicals
Limited Xenobiotic
Metabolism
National Center forComputational Toxicology
18
Efforts to Address Metabolism Challenge
In Development
P450 Glo IPA Assay
National Center forComputational Toxicology
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Efforts to Address Limited Biological Coverage
ToxCast
Concentration
Res
pons
e
~700 Cell & biochemical
assays
~2,000 Chemicals
In DevelopmentGene Coverage
Pathway Coverage*
ToxCast
Not in ToxCast
*At least one gene from pathway represented
Multiple cell lines/types
~2,000 Chemicals
High-Throughput Transcriptomics
Lamb et al. Science (2006)
Concentration
Res
pons
e
• Low-cost• Whole genome• 384-well• Automatable
National Center forComputational Toxicology
20
Efforts to Address Limited Biological Coverage
Illumina RNA AccessL1000 Illumina Low Coverage WT
Log2
FC
L10
00
Log2 FC Affymetrix Log2 FC Affymetrix Log2 FC Affymetrix
Log1
0 FC
RN
A Ac
cess
Log1
0 FC
Low
Cov
erag
e W
T
r2 = 0.03 r2 = 0.60 r2 = 0.63
National Center forComputational Toxicology
21
Developing a Broad Hazard Screening Platform
Tier 1
Select In VitroHTS Assays
Non-Selective Interacting Chemicals
Tier 0High-Throughput Transcriptomic
Assay
Selective Interacting Chemicals
Tier 2Organotypic Assays and Virtual Tissue
Modeling
Estimate Point-of-Departure Based on AOP
Estimate Point-of-Departure Based on Biological Activity
ConfirmationScreen
Discriminate Perturbation from Adversity and
Estimate Inter-Individual Variability
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Integrating High-Throughput Pharmacokinetic Approach
Rotroff et al., Tox Sci., 2010Wetmore et al., Tox Sci., 2012
Reverse Dosimetry
Oral Exposure
Plasma Concentration
ToxCast AC50 Value
Oral Dose Required to Achieve Steady State
Plasma Concentrations Equivalent to In Vitro
Bioactivity
Human Liver Metabolism
Human Plasma Protein Binding
Population-Based IVIVE Model
Upper 95th Percentile CssAmong 100 Healthy
Individuals of Both Sexes from 20 to 50 Yrs Old
309 EPA ToxCastPhase I Chemicals
PK
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Integrating High-Throughput Pharmacokinetic Approach
Rotroff et al., Tox Sci., 2010Wetmore et al., Tox Sci., 2012
Reverse Dosimetry
Oral Exposure
Plasma Concentration
ToxCast AC50 Value
Oral Dose Required to Achieve Steady State
Plasma Concentrations Equivalent to In Vitro
Bioactivity
~700 In Vitro ToxCast Assays
Least Sensitive Assay
MostSensitive
Assay
Human Liver Metabolism
Human Plasma Protein Binding
Population-Based IVIVE Model
Upper 95th Percentile CssAmong 100 Healthy
Individuals of Both Sexes from 20 to 50 Yrs Old
309 EPA ToxCastPhase I Chemicals
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Comparing with Exposure for Risk Context
Rotroff et al., Tox Sci., 2010Wetmore et al., Tox Sci., 2012
Reverse Dosimetry
Oral Exposure
Plasma Concentration
ToxCast AC50 Value
Oral Dose Required to Achieve Steady State
Plasma Concentrations Equivalent to In Vitro
Bioactivity
~700 In Vitro ToxCast Assays
Least Sensitive Assay
Ora
l Equ
ival
ent D
ose
(mg/
kg/d
ay)
What are humans exposed to?
?
?
?
Chemical
In VitroBioactivity
MostSensitive
Assay
Human Liver Metabolism
Human Plasma Protein Binding
Population-Based IVIVE Model
Upper 95th Percentile CssAmong 100 Healthy
Individuals of Both Sexes from 20 to 50 Yrs Old
309 EPA ToxCastPhase I Chemicals
Exposure
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Comparing with Exposure for Risk Context
Wetmore et al., Tox Sci., 2012
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National Center forComputational Toxicology
Certainly the Road Less Traveled…
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Biphenyl
6-Pro
pyl-2-t
hiouracil
Diphenyle
nemeth
ane
Isoeu
genol
Dibenzo
furan
3-Buten
-2-one,
3-meth
yl-4-(
2,6
Acenap
hthylene
Acenap
hthene
4-(2-m
ethylb
utan-2-
yl)phen
ol
Diethyls
tilbes
trol (D
ES)
Octrizo
le
4-Octy
lphenol
4-(1,1
,3,3-T
etram
ethylb
utyl)ph
Carbosu
lfan
Dieldrin
Kepone (
Chlordec
one)
Tebuco
nazole
Benodan
il
4-Aminoaz
obenze
ne
Propan
ol, 1 (o
r 2)-(
2-meth
oxym
4,4'-m
ethyle
nebis(
N,N-dim
ethyl
2,4,6-
Trimeth
ylphen
ol
N-Ethyl-
3-meth
ylanilin
e
2-Hyd
roxy
-4-(octy
loxy)ben
zophe
Chlorpyri
fos
Zamife
nacin
2,6-D
imeth
ylanilin
e
2,4-D
initrotoluen
e
Ethoxyquin
2,4,5-
Trichloro
phenol
Diisobutyl
adipate
2,4,6-
Trichloro
phenol
Carbofuran
Benzo
phenone
p,p'-DDD
Fluoranthen
e
4,4'-O
xydian
iline
Proges
terone
Diphenhyd
ramine h
ydro
chlorid
e
methyl
1H-ben
zimidaz
ol-2-yl
car
2,6-D
i-tert-
butylphen
ol
Fluconaz
ole
2-(2-B
utoxyeth
oxy)et
hanol
2-meth
oxy-5-
nitroan
iline
2-Chloro
-2'-deo
xyad
enosin
e
1,5-D
iaminonap
hthalene
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000 Gen. USMHE
Ora
l Equ
ival
ent D
ose
or E
stim
ated
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
/day
)
N-[(3R
)-1-az
abicy
clo[2.
2.2]oct
(2S,3S
)-N-[2
-meth
oxy-5-
(triflu
o-Tolidine
1,2-D
initroben
zene
Nitroben
zene
Predniso
ne
4-(Butan
-2-yl)
phenol
4-Meth
ylphen
ol
Phosmet
Quinoline
Volinan
serin
Cyclopam
ine
Methyl
octanoate
Butylpara
ben
4-tert
-Butyl
phenol
2,6-D
initrotoluen
e
N-Nitr
osodi-N
-butylam
ine
1,5,9-
Cyclododec
atrien
e
3,3,4,
4,5,5,
6,6,7,
7,8,8,
8-Trid
Methyle
ugenol
Methylp
araben
N-Phen
yl-1,4
-benze
nediam
ine
3,3'-D
imeth
oxyben
zidine)
2,6-D
imeth
ylphen
ol
(-)-C
otinine
4-Nitr
otoluene
Oxytet
racyc
line h
ydro
chlorid
e
Eugenol
2,4-D
i-tert-
butylphen
ol
N,N'-M
ethyle
nebis(
acryl
amide)
Candoxa
tril
p-Cres
idine
Propylp
araben
Dibutyl hex
aned
ioate
Ethylpara
ben
Tannic
acid
Resorci
nol
Dimeth
yl glutar
ate
N,N-D
imeth
ylocty
lamine
Erythro
mycin
Triethyle
ne Glyc
ol Diac
etate
Triethyl
citrat
e
Diallyl
phthalate
Dimeth
yl su
ccinate
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000Gen. USMHE
Ora
l Equ
ival
ent D
ose
or E
stim
ated
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
/day
)
1-Hyd
roxy
pyrene
Azelai
c acid
di(2-et
hylhex
yl)
Tridem
orph
Anthracen
e
Triamcin
olone
Acetam
inophen
Octhilin
one
2-Ben
zylid
eneo
ctanal
Tri(eth
ylene g
lycol) b
is(2-e
th
N-Nitr
osodiphen
ylamine
Aldrin
Phorate
2,6-D
iethyla
niline
Vernolat
e
Genist
ein
5-Hep
tyldihyd
ro-2(
3H)-f
uranone
Terbuthyla
zin
Mepan
ipyrim
2-Anisi
dine
Tributyl
phosphate
Pyrene
3-Hyd
roxy
fluoren
e
Pyrimeth
amine
2-Nap
hthylamine
Bisphen
ol B
Rifampici
n
Di(2-et
hylhex
yl)ad
ipate
Simva
statin
2-tert
-Butyl
-4-meth
oxy-phen
ol
Monuron
N,N,4-
Trimeth
ylanilin
e
1,3-D
iphenylg
uanidine
Flutamide
Heptac
hlor
Benzid
ine
Caffein
e
Haloperi
dol
Lovasta
tin
Carbam
azep
ine
PK 1119
5
Chlorthal-
dimeth
yl
Butam
8-Hyd
roxy
quinoline
3-Nitr
otoluene
2-Meth
ylphen
ol
4,4'-M
ethyle
ne bis(
2-meth
ylani
Androste
nedione
Diisopro
pyl meth
ylphosp
honate
Phenolphthale
in0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000Gen. USMHE
Ora
l Equ
ival
ent D
ose
or E
stim
ated
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
/day
)
Bioactivity from Wetmore et al., Tox Sci., 2015
National Center forComputational Toxicology
27
Developing High-Throughput Exposure Models
(Bio) Monitoring
Dataset 1
Dataset 2…
e.g., CDC NHANES study
Wambaugh et al., Environ Sci Technol., 2014
Predicted Exposures
…
Use
Production Volume
Inferred Exposures
Pharmacokinetic Models
Estimate Uncertainty
Calibrate models
Infe
rred
Exp
osur
e
Predicted Exposure
National Center forComputational Toxicology
28
High-Throughput Exposure Heuristics
Wambaugh et al., Environ Sci Technol., 2014
Heuristic DescriptionACToR “Consumer use &
Chemical/Industrial Process use”Chemical substances in consumer products (e.g., toys, personal care products, clothes, furniture, and home-care products) that are also used in industrial manufacturing processes. Does not include food or pharmaceuticals.
ACToR “Chemical/Industrial Process use with no Consumer use” Chemical substances and products in industrial manufacturing processes that are not
used in consumer products. Does not include food or pharmaceuticals
ACToR UseDB “Pesticide Inert use”Secondary (i.e., non-active) ingredients in a pesticide which serve a purpose other than repelling pests. Pesticide use of these ingredients is known due to more stringent reporting standards for pesticide ingredients, but many of these chemicals appear to be also used in consumer products
ACToR “Pesticide Active use” Active ingredients in products designed to prevent, destroy, repel, or reduce pests (e.g., insect repellants, weed killers, and disinfectants).
TSCA IUR 2006 Total Production Volume Sum total (kg/year) of production of the chemical from all sites that produced the
chemical in quantities of 25,000 pounds or more per year. If information for a chemical is not available, it is assumed to be produced at <25,000 pounds per year.
National Center forComputational Toxicology
29
Comparing Bioactivity with Exposure Predictions for Risk Context
Wetmore et al., Tox Sci., 2015
Chemicals
National Center forComputational Toxicology
30
Work In Progress to Address Exposure Data Gaps
ExpoCast
Estimate Uncertainty
EDSP Chemicals
QSARs and HTE Data
BiomonitoringData
Infe
rred
(Rev
erse
) Exp
osur
e
Model 1
Model 2…
Calibrate models
Apply calibration and uncertainty to other chemicals
Evaluate Model Performanceand Refine Models
Forward Predictions
Exposure Inference
Dataset 1
Dataset 2…
• Limited domain of applicability of existing biomonitoring data
• Limited knowledge of qualitative and quantitative composition of chemical ingredients and emissivity of consumer products and home goods
• Limited experimental measurements of physical chemical properties
National Center forComputational Toxicology
31
Non-Targeted Analysis of Consumer Products (Baby Products Pilot)
Brand #1 Brand #2 Brand #3 Brand #4 Brand #5
Category Number Peak Area Number Peak Area Number Peak Area Number Peak Area Number Peak AreaReported peaks with reviewed library matches 98 430366619 106 123796416 114 1439691153 67 189430603 56 88784398
Reported unknowns (>500,000) 11 138064492 40 67604884 27 473487828 0 0 1 961833Confirmed Hydrocarbons (n-alkanes) 7 4549995 5 85130984 20 14500452 20 28668397 21 30176895Unconfirmed Hydrocarbons C10-C16 171 96701978 245 992103366 141 116097791 117 50621285 109 83257076Unconfirmed Hydrocarbons C17-C32 -- -- -- -- 181 107558101 261 155810354 243 142323751Unresolved C17-C32 2457 116556867334 1934 67979297371 -- -- -- -- -- --
Excluded unknowns (<500,000) 37 5917014 120 21963344 66 10205424 52 7493668 48 6471715
Excluded non-specific (<500,000) 1 391747 0 0 11 425378 17 1038180 14 1169202Excluded trace (<100,000) and similarity < 850 36 2259514 32 1795899 118 7218428 116 7015017 123 6698879
Excluded artifacts 1 393278 4 2172274 34 162097507 16 10001825 7 11311153Total 2819 117235511971 2486 69273864537 712 2331282062 666 450079329 622 371154902
• Solvent extracted followed by GCXGC-TOFMS• A total of 306 unique compounds identified across all toys, including 102 Tox21
chemicals. • Bisphenol A found in “BPA free product”
National Center forComputational Toxicology
32
Pulling the Pieces Together for Regulatory Application
Phys-Chem Properties
HazardDose
Response
PKExposure
Uncertainty & Variability
Phys-Chem Properties
Hazard
Dose Response PK
Exposure Uncertainty & Variability
National Center forComputational Toxicology
33
Application to Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program
• ER, AR, and exposure modeling approaches underwent FIFRA SAP review
• FR Notice published for using ER assays and models to replace subset of Tier 1 assays
• Work continues on AR, steroidogenesis, and thyroid
Phys-Chem Properties Hazard
Dose Response PK
Exposure Uncertainty & Variability
National Center forComputational Toxicology
34
Application to Risk AssessmentPhys-Chem Properties Hazard
Dose Response PK
Exposure Uncertainty & Variability
• Semi-automated assessment workflow
• Dashboard interface
• Two case studies
National Center forComputational Toxicology
35
• Dealing with the “V” word• Defining a fit-for-purpose framework(s) that is time and resource efficient (e.g.,
Judson et al., ALTEX 30(1):51-6, 2013)
• Role of in vivo rodent studies• Accepting and incorporating the inherent uncertainty of the in vivo studies
Challenges
National Center forComputational Toxicology
36
Owens and Koëter, Environ Health Perspect, 2003 Kleinstreuer et al., EHP In Press
Dealing with the “V” WordOriginal OECD TG 440 Validation Concordance of In Vivo Uterotrophic Studies
Active
Inactive
Predictive Performance of In Vitro Assays for In Vivo Uterotrophic Studies
True Positive 29 (29)
True Negative 8 (8)
False Positive 5 (1)
False Negative 1 (1)
Accuracy 0.86 (0.95)
Sensitivity 0.97 (0.97)
Specificity 0.67 (0.89)Browne et al., ES&T. 2015
National Center forComputational Toxicology
37
• Dealing with the “V” word• Defining a fit-for-purpose framework(s) that is time and resource efficient (e.g.,
Judson et al., ALTEX 30(1):51-6, 2013)
• Role of in vivo rodent studies• Accepting and incorporating the inherent uncertainty of the in vivo studies
• Moving from an apical to a molecular paradigm and defining adversity
• Legal defensibility of new methods and assessment products
• Predicting human safety vs. toxicity
• Systematically integrating multiple data streams from the new approaches in a risk-based, weight of evidence assessment
• Ensuring a comprehensive screening and testing paradigm
• Quantifying and incorporating uncertainty and variability
• Application to cumulative risk/mixtures
Challenges
National Center forComputational Toxicology
38
Acknowledgements
Tox21 Colleagues:NTP CrewFDA CollaboratorsNCATS Collaborators
ORD Colleagues:NERLNHEERLNCEA
Alice Yau - SWRI
EPA’s National Center for Computational Toxicology
National Center forComputational Toxicology
39
New Dashboards Provide Improved Access to the Data
iCSS Dashboard
http://actor.epa.gov/dashboard2/
EDSP21 Dashboard
http://actor.epa.gov/edsp21/
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Extra Slides
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Eigenvalues from Principle Component Analysis
Data Matrix
Cell Lines
Gen
es
Data Matrix
Cell Lines
Gen
es
OR
National Center forComputational Toxicology
All Genes(20,960)
Druggable 1(3845)
Druggable 5(237)
NCI60(59)
1755%
1757%
2166%
Cancer Atlas(1036)
15466%
16571%
20298%
Primary Cells(303)
3983%
4083%
4686%
Combined(1398)
17272%
18777%
21199%
Dimensionality and Fraction of Variance Explained
# genes# cell lines #
eigenvalues ≥ 1
• Dimensionality is relatively constant within cell lines
• Dimensionality increases (slightly) as # genes decrease
National Center forComputational Toxicology
As Many Genes ‘On’ as Possible
Toy Example: Call a gene ‘on’ if its expression is in the upper 20th %-ile of its distribution across cell lines.
cell_linesgenes A B C D E F
a 0.250 -0.960 -0.570 0.60 -0.25 -1.300b 3.300 -0.380 -0.980 -0.59 1.90 1.100c -0.042 2.200 0.130 1.80 -0.68 2.900d -1.100 0.200 0.240 -0.18 0.77 0.013e -0.310 -1.100 1.000 -0.45 -0.58 -0.490f 0.600 0.520 -0.011 0.83 1.70 0.270g -0.610 -2.400 -0.290 0.45 -0.33 -0.130h 1.000 -0.011 0.990 -0.82 -2.90 0.420
cell_linesgenes A B C D E F
a 0 0 0 1 0 0b 1 0 0 0 0 0c 0 0 0 0 0 1d 0 0 0 0 1 0e 0 0 1 0 0 0f 0 0 0 0 1 0g 0 0 0 1 0 0h 1 0 0 0 0 0
cell_linesgenes B C D E F
a 0 0 1 0 0c 0 0 0 0 1d 0 0 0 1 0e 0 1 0 0 0f 0 0 0 1 0g 0 0 1 0 0
cell_linesgenes B C F
c 0 0 1e 0 1 0
cell_linesgenes B C E F
c 0 0 0 1d 0 0 1 0e 0 1 0 0f 0 0 1 0
Result:Cell Lines A, D, and E cover 6 of 8 genes.
National Center forComputational Toxicology
Fraction of Genes ‘On’ in At Least One Cell Line