DEVELOPING A LOGIC MODEL - PAVRO Logic Model prese… · Logic Model - Definition •“defined as...

DEVELOPING A LOGIC MODEL

Siu Mee Cheng

Point Consulting Services

PAVRO 2017, Toronto

June 22, 2017

Objectives / Outline

• Definition

• Purpose and theory behind logic models, and their benefits;

• 3 logic model approaches

• Examples of actual logic models from the not-for-profit sector (health and social services sector)

• Components related to a logic model;

• Exercise to do a logic model (for their own organization or other);

• Limits of logic models;

• References & resources availableLogic Model June 2017 2

Logic Model - Definition

• “defined as a picture of how your organization does its work – the theory and assumptions underlying the program. A program logic model links outcomes (both short- and long-term) with program activities/processes and the theoretical assumptions/principles of the program”

• “Is a systematic and visual way to present and share your understanding of the relationships among the resources you have to operate your program, the activities you plan, and the changes or results you hope to achieve”

• (W.K. Kellogg Foundation, 2004, p.iii, 1)

Logic Model June 2017 3

WHAT STANDS OUT?

• Relationship between resources, processes and results

• Illustration of relationship

• Other?


PURPOSE

• Communication tool: provide stakeholders with a “map of describing sequence of related events connecting the need for the planned program with the desired end results”. (WKKF, 2004, p. 3)

• Allows program planners & stakeholders to test ideas, concepts, programming components.

• Support key program-related activities:

– Grant-applications, business cases

– Program planning, management & evaluation

• Offers up learning opportunities by allowing better understanding of a program/initiative.


WHAT IS MEANT BY A “PROGRAM”• Characteristics of a “program”:

1. Program produces something (product, service)

2. Program serves clients / customers / patients

3. Program engages in activities in order to produce things

• Examples of “programs”: – Direct service interventions

– Community mobilization efforts

– Research initiatives

– Policy development activities

– Communication campaigns

– Infrastructure building projects

– Training and education services

– Administrative systems; and

– Others


BASIC LOGIC MODEL COMPONENTS

Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impact


LOGIC MODEL APPROACHES

• Three approaches to logic models:

1. Theory Approach

2. Outcomes Approach

3. Activities Approach


THEORY APPROACH

• What?

– Provide detailed explanation of the reasons for the origins and rationale to create a new program.

– Links theoretical ideas together to explain underlying program assumptions.

– It is about the big ideas and not about specific program components.

• Focus?

– The problem/issue that the program is meant to address.

– Emphasis on the Theory of Change.

• Benefit?

– Used to make a case in grant proposals, business plans.


Theory of Change• Theory of change is a foundational concept that provides an

understanding of the pathway to bring about change.

• In practice, a Theory of Change typically:

– Gives the big picture, including issues related to the environment or context that you can’t control.

– Shows all the different pathways that might lead to change, even if those pathways are not related to your program.

– Describes how and why you think change happens.

• Could be used to complete the sentence “if we do X then Y will change because…”.

– Is presented as a diagram with narrative text.

– The diagram is flexible and doesn’t have a particular format


Outcomes Approach• What?

• Displays inter-relationships between Specific program activities and their outcomes.

• Emphasizes linear linkages thought to exist among program components.

• Provides details on the outcomes and impact over time.

• Focus?

– Shows which sets of activities are believed to contribute to intended results.

• Benefit?

– Useful for designing evaluations.


Activities Approach• What?

• Connects program resources & activities to desired results, but in great detail in a linear format.

• Points out what program activities need to be monitored and what kind of performance measures might indicate progress toward results.

• Focus?

– Focuses in on each outcome and how resources & activities are linked.

– Causal linkages: zero-in on each outcome and how resources & activities are linked

• Benefit?

– Used to support program implementation.


LOGIC MODEL OVERVIEW

• What will be the systems changeWhat is the Impact

• What is the long-term benefits of the programLong-Term Outcomes

• What is intended result following reaction?Intermediate Outcomes

• What is the immediate reaction by clients?Short-Term Outcomes

• What are the goods / services of the program?Outputs

• What are the program’s operations / processes?Program Processes / Activities

• What is resources are put into the program / service?Program Inputs


• The programs vision, mission & goals guide the model

Program’s Vision, Mission and Goals

LOGIC MODEL OVERVIEW - INPUTS

Impact

Long-Term Outcomes

Intermediate Outcomes

Short-Term Outcomes

Outputs

Program Processes / Activities

• What resources are put into the program / service to produce results?

• Resources:• Finance

• Human Resources

• Information & Information Technology

• Expertise

Program Inputs




INPUT SAMPLES

HR: Staff, expertise, consulting services

Funds: grants, donations, sponsorship

IT/IM: PCs, Databases, Software, Internet

Facilities: Buildings, rooms, venues, etc.,

Other?



•What are organizational, community or system level change?Impact

•What is the long-term benefits of the program?Long-Term Outcomes

•What is intended result following reaction?Intermediate Outcomes

•What is the immediate reaction by clients?Short-Term Outcomes

•What are the goods / services of the program?Outputs

• What are the program’s operations / processes?

• How are the resources being used, and processed in order to produce the outputs (goods & services)

• Speaks to operations of the program


•What is resources are put into the program / service?Program InputsLogic Model June 2017 16





•What is the long-term benefit of the program?Long-Term Outcomes



• The goods / services of the program.

• Should be quantifiable• How many clients served

• Units of services/goods distributed

Outputs

•What are the program’s operations / processes?Program Processes / Activities




LOGIC MODEL OVERVIEW – SHORT-TERM OUTCOMES




• The immediate reaction seen among those receiving service / products delivered by program?

• Usually expect to see changes within 1yr.

• Usually see an immediate (client) reaction:

• Behaviour

• Knowledge

• Feeling / Client Satisfaction

• Skill

• Attitudes

Short-Term

Outcomes



•What is resources are put into the program / service?Program Inputs

Logic Model June 201718

•The programs vision, mission & goals guide the model


LOGIC MODEL OVERVIEW – INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES



• What is the intended the result following reaction?

• See desired changes in 2-3 years

• Usually see changes in the way people / organizations behave:

• Conditions that can change in 2-3 years: health, social, behaviours, etc.,

Intermediate

Outcomes







LOGIC MODEL OVERVIEW – LONG-TERM OUTCOMES

•What is the impact to the organization, community, system?Impact

• What are the changes that we aspire to see in the next 6-10 years.

• Changes may not be directly within control of the program.

• Changes occur at a higher level:• Health status

• Social-economic state

Long-TermOutcomes







LOGIC MODEL OVERVIEW - IMPACT

• What are the fundamental changes occurring in the organization/community/system that are as a result of the program activities and inputs?

• These are usually seen / expected over a long period of time (ex: 10 years).

• Usually refer to Social, Economic, Health and Environmental conditions/capacity/policy that have changed.

Impact








EXAMPLE: STAGES OF OUTCOMES TO

IMPACT – KID’S HEALTHY EATING

PROGRAM

Short-term Outcomes

1.Kids attend class.

2. Knowledge increases about healthy eating.

3. Eating healthier.


1. Healthier Weights

2. % of BMI down

3. Incidence of obesity down.

Long-Term Outcomes

1. Incidence of heart disease down.

2. Incidence of diabetes down.

Impact

Longer life expectancy


AUDIENCE EXERCISE 1

What is the Impact

Long-Term Outcomes


Short-Term Outcomes

Outputs


Program InputsLogic Model June 2017 23

AUDIENCE EXERCISE 2

What is the Impact

Long-Term Outcomes


Short-Term Outcomes

Outputs


Program InputsLogic Model June 2017 24

LIMITATIONS OF PROGRAM MODELS


Sphere of influence / span of control may not be proven, especially for long-term outcomes.

Based on causal relationship assumption.

Starting point: outcomes vs. process

Inability to outline complexity of program’s relationship with stakeholders (i.e.,other pg partners).

Difficult to understand.

Time-consuming.

ATTRIBUTION V. CONTRIBUTION

Impact

Outcome

Output/Productivity

Process / Efficiency

Input


How much influence does your initiative have over the results of the indicator / measure: Attribution or Contribution (Sufficiency & Necessity)

A POINT ON MEASUREMENT

• Logic models generally used to assist in developing performance measures for the program/initiative of interest.

• Principles:– Valid: measure refers to input / processes / outputs / outcomes in

question

– Reliable: collects the data consistently

– Timely: data can be collected on timely basis

• Proxy measures may be required if cannot directly measure input / processes / outputs / outcomes in question.

• Leading and lagging measures will need to be considered.

• Lag time: some outcomes take time to show.


LEADING VS. LAGGING INDICATORS

Lagging Indicators Leading

Indicators


Measures that report on outputs

/ inputs / activities / outcomes

that have already happened.

Ex: Wait times (reporting of past

quarter waits for patients who

already had surgery)

Measures that report on outputs /

inputs / activities / outcomes that

are anticipated to happen.

Ex: projected service volumes.

Prospective wait times (estimating

wait times with current wait lists)

NOTE BENE

• When identifying your inputs, outputs, activities, outcomes and impact – you will need to be mindful of how you will measure them.

• Logic models will (and should) change over time (because programs change over time).

• Logic modelling is a group exercise, all program stakeholders should be involved.

• Not intended for unstable programs: transitioning, undergoing change, etc.

• K.I.S.S.


RESOURCES• WK Kellogg Foundation. Logic model development guide

[Internet]. Detroit, MI: W.K. Kellogg Foundation; 2006 [cited 2016 Jan 11]. Available from: http://www.wkkf.org/resource-directory/resource/2006/02/wk-kellogg-foundation-logic-model-development-guide

• Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion (Public Health Ontario), Abdi S, Mensah G. Focus On: Logic models-a planning and evaluation tool. Toronto, ON: Queen’s Printer for Ontario; 2016.

• Taplin, D.H., Muamer, R. (2012). Facilitator’s Source Book: Leading Theory of Change Development Sessions. ActKnowledge.

• Siu Mee Cheng, Point Consulting Services, [email protected]


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