Deterrence & Brutalization Three meanings of deterrence: Specific deterrence – one person General...

Deterrence & Brutalization

Three meanings of deterrence:

Specific deterrence – one person

General deterrence - deters others Theory - "logically" punishment should deter

Marginal deterrence - statistical Research - how much change, if any?


Traditionally, general deterrence has been the main justification for the DP -

the idea is that criminals should be executed to prevent crime –

fear of punishment “should “ lead to “second thoughts” by potential criminals.


Theory of deterrence is philosophical- based on “rational man” view of “human nature”

Humans consciously weigh alternatives and make rational choices based on costs and benefits (“pain and pleasure” in some older versions).


Criminologists have long pointed out that many different social factors influence homicides and homicide rates and that “rational man” ideas and deterrence theory are overly simplistic ...

and that most human behavior is either routine/unconscious or impulsive ---- not rational!!


Meanwhile, most research has found that deterrence doesn’t work in practice - virtually all older studies failed to find deterrent effects of any legal policies - and other research indicates that punishment in general has a mixed impact on behavior - often making problems worse rather than better. SHORT TERM/LONG TERM EFFECTS


Most academic “debates” regarding the theories of deterrence have involved the “philosophy” on one side (deterrence shouldwork) and “the research” on the other side (deterrence doesn’t work).

Meanwhile, there is another theory that has been mostly ignored by both sides.


Brutalization Theory refers to a mixed set of claims (and sometimes research) that the DP/executions actually lead to increases in homicides.

Karl Marx George Hunt

“Culture of violence” theories


Deterrence research before the 1990s:

• Contiguous states studies• Before and after studies• Econometric studies

Inconclusive results – no evidence of deterrence

William Bowers 1980 reexamined data - discuss!


Breakthrough research in the 1990s -- Cochran, Chamlin Oklahoma study Hypothesis that both theories correct --

Executions might deter “rational homicides”-- and lead to more “impulsive homicides”


“Disaggregation”

“Rational” and “Impulsive” homicidesExample: Felony vs Stranger

(Also age, type of weapon, etc.)

Their Results


FBI Supplementary Homicide Reports made more/better studies possible --

data on many characteristics of homicides

Our studies of Arizona & Calif --

Before/After Return to execution


First, we basically replicated the Okla categories

Table compares findings


But then we added two more analyses:

Race and Race Combinations (explain rationale)


And then age - with most interesting results


Although homicide rates had been dropping in Arizona before the Harding execution, we found increases in every category following the return to execution in Arizona --

But, consistent with Brut Theo, the biggest incr by far were impulsive homs!!

especially teens!!


We also had FBI-SHR data for California,so we decided to replicate our Arizona study and expand it to a few more areas.

SHR Data most complete for city of L.A.

Robert Alton Harris and Calif’s return to execution


Here are the overall results


There is some evidence (old and recent) that there might be short term deterrent effects of executions even if in the long run homicides increase - so we tested that too - the “death dip” hypothesis.


We now had a set of basic patterns

• Rational - death dip then return to normal• Impulsive - no death dip, large increases• Very large increases among teens!!

Then we went looking for more evidence - and found a report on teen hom rates - we added the info on DP and executions


Then a couple of years later, a new study appeared using a different method --

a huge contiguous counties study that found consistently higher homicide rates in counties in states that execute.

explain methodology


Meanwhile, there was a series of school shootings that erupted across the country-- by juveniles

-- every one of the school shootings was in a state that executed!!

Coincidence???


Bottom Line:

• No overall deterrent effect

• Likely small short term decreases

• Long term larger increases, esp teens


Comment on recent econometric studies


Two more points (to complicate things!!):

• Death dip and “scheduled executions”

• Policy mistakes from short term dip

Deterrence & Brutalization Three meanings of deterrence: Specific deterrence – one person General...

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