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ti :

H thng ti chnh - tin t th gii t sau ichin TG II n nm 1972

T cui i chin th gii th 2 cho n cui nm 1972, th gii t bn t c stng trng thu nhp thc t nhanh cha tng thy. (Sau s hi nhp ca Trung Qucvo h thng t bn ch ngha thc y ng k s tng trng ca c h thng.)Trong nhng thp k sau chin tranh th gii hai, kinh t th gii v h thng tin t cthay i ln lm tng nhanh tm quan trng v thch hp trong vic p ng mc tiu caIMF (Qu Tin T Quc t ), nhng iu cng c ngha l yu cu IMF thch ng vhon thin ci t. Nhng tin b nhanh chng trong k thut cng ngh v thng tin linlc gp phn lm tng hi nhp quc t ca cc th trng, lm cho cc nn kinh tquc dn gn kt vi nhau cht ch hn.

I.Lch s hnh thnh h thng Bretton Woods:

-S sp ca ch tin t Gi n: Ra i sau CTTG1 nhm thit lp 1 quan h mudch tn dng tin t quc t nhm khi phc kinh t sau chin tranh. 1922 ti thnh phGi-n(Italia)

=>cc quan h ti chnh trn th gii tr nn ri ren=>hnh thnh mt s lin minh tin t do 1 s nc t bn u s cm u: khu vc

ng Ph-rng Php, khu vc ng Bng Anh, khu vc ng $ M.

- Khu vc ng la do M cm u tn ti bn cnh cc i th khng hn km lkhu vc ng Bng Anh v khu vc ng Ph-rng Php. Nhng sau i chin th giiln th II, M tr thnh mt cng quc mnh nht th gii v ngoi thng, v tn dngquc t v l nc c d tr vng ln nht th gii (chim khong tng d tr vngca ton b th gii t bn). y chnh l nhng yu t to nn th mnh cho ng laM trn trng quc t, a ng tin ny ln ngi ng tin ch cht ca th gii.

thng 7/1944, li dng i v kinh t ca mnh ,Hoa K triu tp hi ngh tin t-tichnh quc t ln 2 ti thnh ph Bretton Woods vi s tham gia ca 44 nc thnhvin.Cuc hp ko di trong 22 ngy

Hi ngh k kt mt Hip nh quc t bao gm v vic thit lp cc quan h tin t -ti chnh quc t mi cho thi k sau chin tranh th gii th hai. c gi l h thngBretton Woods.

Cng ti y , Qu Tin T Quc t (IMF) v ngn hng ti thit v pht trin quct(IBRD - sau ny l Ngn Hng Th gii WB) c thnh lp. IMF gi vai tr trng titrong h thng mi v WB c thit lp nh mt c ch cp vn a phng h tr tintrnh pht trin ca cc nc thuc th gii th ba.

http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%87_nh%E1%BB%8B_th%E1%BA%BF_chi%E1%BA%BFnhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Thu_nh%E1%BA%ADp_th%E1%BB%B1c_t%E1%BA%BF&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trung_Qu%E1%BB%91chttp://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=K%E1%BB%B9_thu%E1%BA%ADt_c%C3%B4ng_ngh%E1%BB%87&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Th%C3%B4ng_tin_li%C3%AAn_l%E1%BA%A1c&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Th%C3%B4ng_tin_li%C3%AAn_l%E1%BA%A1c&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%E1%BB%8B_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Dnghttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%87_nh%E1%BB%8B_th%E1%BA%BF_chi%E1%BA%BFnhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Thu_nh%E1%BA%ADp_th%E1%BB%B1c_t%E1%BA%BF&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trung_Qu%E1%BB%91chttp://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=K%E1%BB%B9_thu%E1%BA%ADt_c%C3%B4ng_ngh%E1%BB%87&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Th%C3%B4ng_tin_li%C3%AAn_l%E1%BA%A1c&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Th%C3%B4ng_tin_li%C3%AAn_l%E1%BA%A1c&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%E1%BB%8B_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Dng

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II.c im ca h thng Bretton Woods:

1.Tha nhn $ l ng tin chun ,lm tr ct cho ch tin t ny.

$ l phng tin d tr v thanh ton quc t, ng vai tr quan trng trong cc quan htin t, thanh ton v tn dng quc t.=> ch tin t Bretton Woods cn c gi l ch bn v $.Thc cht:

-Cc nc c nh t gi hi oi ca ng tin nc minh theo ng $.-Cc nc vn phi xc nh ni dung vng ca ng tin nc mnh nhng ch l

hnh thc.-ng tin cc nc khng t do chuyn i ra vng.mun c vng trc ht phi

chuyn thnh $, ri t $ chuyn ra vng theo t gi chnh thc 35$/1ounce vng.

2.Ch t gi c nh:

-Phi xc nh v cng b cho IMF ni dung vng ca ng tin nc mnh.-Khng c tng gim ni dung vng ca ng tin nc mnh trong phm vi 10%

nu khng c IMF ng .Trong trng hp mt cn bng nghim trng trong cn cn thanh ton, cc quc gia

c th tin hnh ph gi hay nng gi ng tin vi bin nh hn 10% trc khi IMFcan thip.

-Ngn hng trung ng cc nc thnh vin ca IMF phi can thip cho t gi hioi trn th trng bin ng khng vt qu bin 1% .

3.D tr quc t:

-Cc quc gia cn c lng d tr ln v vng v ngoi t.IMF cung cp cho cc nc thnh vin mt mc hn mc tn dng thng xuyn titr cho cn cn thanh ton, trnh tnh trng ph gi hay nng gi ng tin.

+Cc quc gia ng gp vo IMF theo t l l ti sn d tr (ch yu l vng), lng tin quc gia.

+ Khi gp kh khn, mi thnh vin c rt 25% hn mc trong ln u, sau mun rt thm phi tun th nghim ngt cc chnh sch do IMF a ra, c th rt trong4 ln, mi ln 25%.

4.Kh nng chuyn i ca cc ng tin:

- Cc quc gia tham gia vo IMF hay hip nh chung v thng mi v thu quanGATT phi cam kt chuyn i khng hn ch ng ni t i vi nhng giao dch trongcn cn vng lai (c th hn ch kim sot chu chuyn vn nhng khng kim sot ccchuyn i tin t phc v cho mc ch thng mi.)

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III.Hot ng ca h thng Bretton Woods:

Thi gian tn ti v hot ng ca h thng BWs c th c chia thnh 2 giai on: giaion i $(1945-1958) v giai on bi thc $(1959-1971)

1.Giai on i $ (1945-1958):

- Sau chin tranh th gii th 2 cc nc Ty u b tn ph nng n=>c mt nhu cu tn dng ln nhp khu nhng g cn thit cho cng cuc tithit.Trong k hoch ti thit Chu u-Marshall(1948-1954), 17 t $ M c avo 16 nc Ty u.

K hoch Marshall (Marshall Plan) l mt k hoch trng yu ca Hoa K nhm tithit v thit lp mt nn mng vng chc hn cho cc quc gia Ty u, y lui ch

ngha cng sn sau Th chin th hai. Mang tn chnh thc "K hoch phc hng Chuu" (European Recovery Program - ERP), nhng K hoch Marshall thng c githeo tn caNgoi trng MGeorge Marshall, ngi khi xng v ban hnh khoch. K hoch Marshall l thnh qu lao ng ca cc quan chc B Ngoi giao HoaK, trong ghi nhn s ng gp c bit ca William L. Clayton v George F.Kennan.

-Nhng bt ng ln trong phe ng Minh chng Pht Xt bt u xut hin. Lin x ctham gia vo hi ngh Bretton Woods nhng li t chi tham gia vo IMF. c bittrong khng kh cng thng ca chin tranh lnh , M phi chi tr mt khon ln choqun s. Do cui nm 50 u nm 60 M xut hin mt s du hiu khng hong.

Chin tranh Lnh (19451991) l tnh trng tip ni xung t chnh tr, cng thng quns, v cnh tranh kinh t tn ti sau Th chin II (19391945), ch yu gia Lin bangX Vit v cc quc gia v tinh ca n, vi cc cng quc thuc th gii phng Ty,gm c Hoa K.

2.Giai on bi thc $ (1959-1971):

-Nn kinh t cc nc Ty u dn i vo n nh v pht trin=>ngun d tr $ ngn hng cc nc ny tng ln vi tc khng mong mun, ccngn hng bt u tm cch chuyn i $ ly vng.

-Trong khi M li ang xut hin nhng du hiu khng hong: thm ht cn cn cbn trung bnh 3,5 t USD ,n nm 1970 lng vng d tr ca M ch cn 11 t USDso vi s lng ban u l hn 26 t=>Cc nc Ty u mt dn lng tin vo ng USD.Cc nc c lng d tr lnUSD u mun tm cch i ra vng.-Th trng vng kp xut hin m khong cch gia gi vng trn th trng t do v givng do ngn hng trung ng quy nh chnh lch nhau ln

http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C3%A2y_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%E1%BB%A7_ngh%C4%A9a_c%E1%BB%99ng_s%E1%BA%A3nhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%E1%BB%A7_ngh%C4%A9a_c%E1%BB%99ng_s%E1%BA%A3nhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%87_nh%E1%BB%8B_th%E1%BA%BF_chi%E1%BA%BFnhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%E1%BB%99_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Fng_Ngo%E1%BA%A1i_giao_Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Marshallhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%E1%BB%99_Ngo%E1%BA%A1i_giao_Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%E1%BB%99_Ngo%E1%BA%A1i_giao_Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=William_L._Clayton&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=George_F._Kennan&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=George_F._Kennan&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Qu%E1%BB%91c_gia_v%E1%BB%87_tinh&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%E1%BA%BF_gi%E1%BB%9Bi_ph%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_T%C3%A2yhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C3%A2y_%C3%82uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%E1%BB%A7_ngh%C4%A9a_c%E1%BB%99ng_s%E1%BA%A3nhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%E1%BB%A7_ngh%C4%A9a_c%E1%BB%99ng_s%E1%BA%A3nhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%90%E1%BB%87_nh%E1%BB%8B_th%E1%BA%BF_chi%E1%BA%BFnhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%E1%BB%99_tr%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Fng_Ngo%E1%BA%A1i_giao_Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Marshallhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%E1%BB%99_Ngo%E1%BA%A1i_giao_Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%E1%BB%99_Ngo%E1%BA%A1i_giao_Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=William_L._Clayton&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=George_F._Kennan&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=George_F._Kennan&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Qu%E1%BB%91c_gia_v%E1%BB%87_tinh&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%E1%BA%BF_gi%E1%BB%9Bi_ph%C6%B0%C6%A1ng_T%C3%A2yhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoa_K%E1%BB%B3

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=>cc nh u c mua vng ngn hng trung ng v bn trn th trng t do.-Ti khi nn kinh t Ty u v Nht Bn pht trin mnh m, gi tr ng tin ca ccnc ny tng=>lng tin vo $ gim st =>dng vn khng l bng $ c chuyn dn sang cc ngtin mnh hn.

Thng 9/1971: +M tuyn b ngng i $ sang vng.35$/1ounce 38$/ounce.+Mt s ng tin Mc c, yn Nht, franc Thy S tng gi trung

bnh 8% so vi ng USD+Mc dao dng xung quanh t gi c nh vi $ tng t 1% 2,25%

Nm 1973: do khng hong ng $ nn cc nc cng nghip ch cht bi b mcngang gi chnh thc vi $, thc hin th ni c lp ng tin ca mnh. M ph gi $ln 2=>h thng Bretton woods sp .

IV. ngha ca h thng Bretton Woods:

1. u im:- Mang li s n nh t gi- Loi b c s bt n i vi cc giao dch bun bn v u t quc t.- Thc y kinh t pht trin v em li li ch cho tt c cc nc thnh vin.

2. Nhc im:- Hu ht chnh ph cc nc thnh vin khng mun gn chnh sch tin t ca mnh vivic duy tr sc mua ng tin nh cam kt khng hong t gi.

- M khng th gi gi vng n nh mc 35 USD/ounce v chnh ph phi chi tiu

nhiu cho vic leo thang chin tranh Vit Nam, sau chin tranh th gii th 2, kinh tChu u, Nht Bnc phc hi, gia tng sn xut lm d tr ngoi t USD tngtrong khi M cam kt bn vng vi gi c nh v th cc nc ny s dng d trngoi t tn cng vo kho vng ca M lm cho d tr vng ca M gim dn; cc ncEuro, Nht, Thy S t chi p t t l lm pht ca M ln ng tin ca h theo gi cnh nn la gim mnh

- Ch tin t Bretton-Woods ly USD lm chun. Thc cht, cc nc c nh tgi hi oi ca ng tin nc mnh theo ng la. Tuy cc nc vn phi xc nhni dung vng ca ng tin nc mnh, nhng ch l hnh thc. ng tin cc nckhng t do chuyn i ra vng, mun c vng th cc ng tin trc ht phi chuyn

thnh USD, tc l cc nc s phi c USD, t USD s chuyn c thnh vng theo tgi chnh thc (gi vng chnh thc) 35 USD = 1 ounce vng. V l , ch tin tBretton-woods c gi l bn v vng-hi oi da trn USD, cn gi l ch bn v la.- Ch bn v la lm cho s lin h gia ng tin cc nc vi vng li mtbc na b ni lng. Ch tin t ny hp php ho, bin ng tin ca M thnhng tin quc t. Chnh v th khuyn khch Hoa K lm pht la. Tnh trng ny

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ko theo s lm pht quc t, trc ht l nhng nc thnh vin ca ch tin tny.V.S sp ca h thng Bretton Woods:

Nguyn nhn:

1.Vn thanh khon:

Khi khi lng USD (c pht hnh) cao hn khi lng vng d tr ca M th M khng cn kh nng thanh ton tt c USD bng vng theo t l 35USD =1 ouncevng. dn n vic M phi chn 1 trong 2 chnh sch l: ph gi ng $ vi vnghoc khng i $ ra vng na. Tuy nhin c hai chnh sch ny u dn n vic h thngbretton woods sp do t gi c nh b ph v

Bng sau ch ra t l d tr bng vng v ti sn n thanh khan ca M. BWS hotng rt tt nhng nm 1950 nhng mt dn lng tin trong nhng nm 1960 khi lng

vng d tr ca M khng thanh khon cc khan n. T nm 1962-1972, tnhhnh tr nn v cng ti t v li that cui cng ca BWS l s sp v lc y ngtin mu xanh y uy lc ny khng cn g m bo na, ngoi chnh sc mnh kinh tv chnh tr ca M.

NmT l vng/USDNmT l vng/USD19502.72 19660.5819522.38 19660.5019541.84 19680.4119561.59 19700.3119581.34 19720.1619600.92 19740.1419620.71 19760.22

Ngun: Milner an Greenawway,1979.

2.Gii thch theo quy lut "ng tin xu ui ng tin tt":

Theo chnh ph M quy nh 35 $=1ounce vng (lu thng tin t )Theo cung cu th trng th 35$< 1 ounce vng (th trng hng ha)nu theo t gi do M quy nh th vng b nh gi thp, cn $ th c nh gi cao tronglu thng tin t. to iu kin mi ngi kinh doanh chnh lch t gi: mua vng vigi 35$ lu thng tin t v bn vi gi cao hn th trng hng ha, lc ny ai cngli tr mi chnh ph M. iu ny l cho lng vng d tr ca chnh ph M ngy

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cng cn kit => khng th duy tr c t gi c nh m bretton woods theo ui =>Bretton Woods sup

3.S thiu vng mt c ch iu chnh:

Bretton Wood cho php iu chnh t gi chnh thc nh l bin php cui cng iuchnh s mt cn i c bn trong BOP(cn cn thanh ton) ca cc nc thnh vin. Tuynhin trong thc t cc quc gia c BOP mt cn i t ra rt min cng khi thc hincac bin php nh: ph gi, nng gi, hay cc chnh sch kinh t khc nhm duy tr trngthi cn bng ca BOP.

V pha M: Cho d t l lm pht sau nhiu nm tuy c cao, nhng chnh ph M khngth ph gi USD i vi vng c, bi v nu ph gi s lm xi mn lng tin vo tonh thng Bretton Woods. Hn na, gi s chnh ph M ph gi USD so vi vng thcng khng ci thin c sc cnh tranh thng mi quc t nu nh cc bn hng vnduy tr t gi c nh i vi USD. Nh vy, duy tr v kim sot c thm ht BOP

chnh ph M buc phi p dng cc chnh sch thiu pht nn kinh t.i vi cc nc c BOP thm ht: R rng hnh ng ph gi l phng thuc cuicng ci thin BOP ca cc nc b thm ht. Nhng thc t ch ra rng cc nc cBOP thm ht li t ra rt min cng khi ph gi ng tin ca mnh, bi v ph githng c xem l biu hin yu km ca chnh ph v ca c mt quc gia. Mt khicc quc gia c thm ht BOP min cng p dng cc chnh sch thiu pht nn kinh tcng nh ph gi ng bn tin t, c ngha l h thng Bretton Woods phi trng chvo cc nc c thng d BOP lm mt ci g BOP ca h gim xung.

i vi cc nc c thng d BOP nh c, Nht, Thu S... cng mun chng t rngvic nng gi ng tin ca h cng kh khn v min cng chng km g cc ncphi ph gi ng tin. iu ny xy ra l v khi ng tin ca h tip tc c nh githp s cho php duy tr tc tng trng cao trong xut khu v hng nn kinh t vosn xut hng xut khu. H lo ngi rng nu nng gi ng bn t s khin cho tngtrng xut khu chm li, tht nghip gia tng bi v cc ngnh sn xut hng xut khuphi co li. Hn na, cc quc gia ny khng d g p dng chnh sch m rng tin tnh l cc bin php gim thng d BOP bi v h lun lo ngi v nhng hu qu calm pht c th gy ra.

Trong ch t gi c nh, p lc lun nng ln con n phi tin hnh bin php iuchnh no bi v nu khng d tr ngoi hi s cn kit bo v t gi.

4. V c quyn pht hnh USD:

Vai tr c tn ca USD bao hm rng, nc M l ngi cung cp ngun thanhkhon quc t ch yu di ch Bretton Woods. c c ngun d tr quc t,phn th gii cn li (khng phi M) phi duy tr BOP lun trng thi thng d, trongkhi M phi duy tr mt BOP lun thm ht. iu ny c ngha l phn cn li ca th

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gii phi tiu dng t hn nhng g m chnh n sn xut ra, trong khi nc M c cquyn l c th tiu dng nhiu hn nhng g m chnh nc M sn xut ra.

5. nh hng ca ch tin t BWS n ngy nay:

H thng BWS cha bao gi l mt h thng mang tnh n nh v phi chnh tr . Hthng ny khng th v khng ngn chn c cc ng tin khi vic b vt qu gitr hoc l di gi tr thc t. Tuy nhin, mc d c tc dng ko di thi gian giamt cuc khng hong ny cho ti cuc khng hong tip theo th h thng BWS cng hat ng v tn ti gn nh ton b mt na th k sau CTTGII. V ch c 1 l do duynht gii thch ti sao h thng ny hot ng (mc d khng my hiu qu) l camkt ca h thng M v sc mnh ca ng la M vi t cch l ng tin ch otrn th gii.