Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

Destiny shared:

Our Common Futures –

Human Capital beyond 2020

by

Anis H. Bajrektarevic,

IMC University Austria – Europe

5th GLOBAL TECH LEADERS SYMPOSIUM

Intl. Corporate Leaders Program

– Singapore & Shanghai, 12–20 March 2005 –

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

Revisiting and Rethinking development

Humans are on Earth for about 100,000 years – very short time in

relation to the age of the Universe (app. 15 billion years), or even to the

existence of our planet (some 4,6 billion years);

Civilization developed only 10,000 years ago, and the wheel was

invented 4,000 years ago;

If we made a clipping of the history of Earth into a movie lasting

exactly 1 year (by running 146 years per second of movie-clip), life

would not appear until March, multicellular organisms not until

November, dinosaurs not until December 13 (lasting until the 26th

only), mammals not until December 15.

Homo Sapiens would come 11 minutes to midnight of the last day, and

civilization just one minute ago. Yet in a very short time, less than 200

years (a mare 0,000002% of Earth’s life), humans have become capable

of seriously altering the entire biosphere – more profoundly than it has

changed in the past billion years.

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

Development: Economic & Human dimension

Since the industrial revolution (slightly more than 200 years ago), we have

improved a general well-being and standards of living dramatically;

In the last 100 years only, we have invented so much;

– electricity, light bulb, telephony, cinema, R&TV, automobile, airplane, spaceship,

refrigerator, air conditioner, skyscraper, antibiotics, heart transplant devices, birth

control pill, face-lifting & beauty-cosmetics, microwave oven, H–bomb, N–energy,

digital computer, Internet, cell phones, Bio-informatics, Nanotechnology …

– Science and technology enabled millions of peoples of Earth to live with

more freedom, power and knowledge.

Yet with this new freedom, power and knowledge has come a dark side of

our stage: we frequently started to question our economic development –

– how sustainable is it (life in all it forms is sustainable, but are we) ?!;

– how much does it consider essential human component ?!;

– do we compromise our own existence on the planet’s surface in a long

run?!

Before giving some answers to these questions, let‟s see the state of our

human capital which is a prime force and main beneficiary of development.

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

Population Growth – Outlook

Source: UN, World Population Change 1950 – 2050 (the 2004 Revision), Division on Global Population Trends.

The world’s population – at 6,5 billion by July 2005 – is growing

by almost 10,000 an hour.

World Median Fertility rate: 2,6 – today; 2,05 – by y2050.

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Anis - March 2005

Telescoping the World Population

World Population – Y2020: 7,8 billion. Projection per 100 persons:

Asia 56

Africa 19

Americas 09

EE and CIS 06

WE 04

Middle East 05

Out of which:

19 Chinese, 18 Hindu, 5 Pakistani

14 sub-Saharian Africa

04 United States

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Anis - March 2005

Overpopulation – Density

Underpopulation – a definition

Condition in which the amount of land and other resources

available in an area could support a larger human population.

Overpopulation (vs. density) – a short definition

The area‟s population carrying capability is exceeded.

The key for understanding:

– capacity of environment to sustain human activities;

– the relation between available resources and its population

(has nothing to do with the particular population density).

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Anis - March 2005

Urbanization

Urban Population by Region:

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Anis - March 2005

Roman Empire: LE about 22 to 25 years

LE rose rapidly in the 20th century

Worldwide: male – 61 years

female – 63 years

Russia – a huge LE gap between male & female: 14 years

Outlook – WHO estimates LE for Y2020:

– 82 for the OECD countries and 65 for the III World

– EU/OECD: LE rising at rate of 1,5 extra years per decade.

Life Expectancy – History and Outlook

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Anis - March 2005

Life Expectancy – Global

Life Expectancy - Highlights

- Highest LE – Microstates

- Andorra: 83,5 years

- San Marino: 81,1 years

- Japan: 80,7 years

- Lowest LE – least developed

- Zambia: 37,2 years

- Mozambique: 37,5 years

- Malawi: 37,6 years

Between 1998 & 2003

23 countries increased LE

21 LE dropped

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Anis - March 2005

Life Expectances and Migratory Forces

Human Development and the Map of Armed Conflicts 1994 - 2004

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Anis - March 2005

Poverty and Ecological disasters as the

migratory driving force

Poverty today 1.1 billion < 1 $/ day

2.7 billion < 2 $/ day

Poverty beyond Y2020 over 50% of all world„s poorest will

be situated in Sub-Saharan Africa

Rural poverty:

– lack of arable land;

– lack of basic infrastructure;

– extremely water stressed;

– exposure to CC and diseases;

– civil unrest and wars;

Urban poverty:

– influx of jobless rural population;

– poverty rings around major centers;

– lack of basic infrastructure, water and sanitation;

– criminality, prostitution, drugs, AIDS.

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Anis - March 2005

Migratory Push effect

Malnutrition and the lack of Arable land.

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Anis - March 2005

Migratory Push effect

WHO estimates: 80% of the worldwide illnesses and

deaths are caused by usage of contaminated water.

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Anis - March 2005

Migratory Push effect Energy and Climate Change

Increased consumption of Biomass for cooking and heating by

the III world’s rural population will cause coupling effects:

deteriorating CC as well as the rural-urban and trans-border migrations.

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Anis - March 2005

Global Demographic Trends

Main Migratory Causes and Patterns

Domestic Rural–Urban Mega Moves:

Apart from unprecedented achievement of lifting as many as

400 million people out of poverty (less then 1$ a day), China has

to absorb the 300 million peasants expected to move into its

industrial and service (urban) sector over the next generation.

About the same patterns are evident in other ‘mega-

demographics’ of primarily Asia, such as India, Pakistan,

Indonesia and like.

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Anis - March 2005

Demographic Imbalances: Current Policy Response

Migrations „Asylum is a right, economic migration is an opportunity“,

– ex EU JHA Commissioner Antonio Vitorino

– opportunity for go-getters from developing world;

– easing the social and economic pressures for the III world countries;

– remittances/hard currency back to country of origin;

– compensation for the WE labor and demographic shortages;

– maintenance of the tax, consumer & social welfare bases of ageing

western societies;

– BUT: often the obsession is with settlement not work itself.

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Anis - March 2005

Migratory Pull effects

2000

2050

2020

More than 15% of

population over the age 65

(past the prime age)

Ageing: Y2k, Y2020 and Y2050

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Anis - March 2005

Migratory Pull effects: Low Fertility Rates

Selected OECD countries –

Expected population decline between 2000 & 2050:

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Anis - March 2005

Fertility Loaming

The fertility rate (the no. of children per woman‟s life span) is the ultimate

driver of the old-age dependency ratio (population size and composition)

– birth-rate plus eventual immigration/naturalization, minus mortality is a net

increase of population.

In the decade 1993 – 2003, the EU–15 population was officially estimated to

have risen by 10,4 million people. But only 3,0 million can be attributed to an

excess of births over deaths – meaning the rest should be ascribed to

naturalization.

The EU–12 total fertility rate was about 2,5 in the early „970s (baby-boomers

generation), and has fallen – in a straight line – to 1,5 in the late „990s –

crossing the 2,1 replacement ration in about 1976.

(in 2001 – France and UK: 1,7; Germany: 1,4; Italy and Spain: 1,2; etc.)

Why our fertility has started loaming … ?!

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Anis - March 2005

Fertility crisis

Spirit of our age is that woman should achieve equality with man: thus social policies are designed to permit/encourage greater participation in the labor force by women – of all ages.

Social pressures to remain an active part of the labor force through a cross-gender equality of (economic) activity – officially encouraged – are raising the economic cost of the woman‟s career-break to have children:

– Current response is to postpone starting family, and therefore CFS (complete family size) is in the end lower than intended/hoped

(e.g. EU median age of woman giving the first birth is already close to 30)

Answering the question of what is to be a dominant driver of population (composition) dynamics – fertility or immigration, takes us to two taboo subjects:

– The (current and future) role of woman in society, and

– Societal readiness for a (further) migration/naturalization in-takes (including the limits of social absorptions – social cohesion threat).

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

The Ageing Challenge: Current Policy Response

Instruments used:

Increase in output and rates of growth or/and the higher taxation;

Equilibration of labor market/s:

– Raise of retirement age above 65 or/and trimming the leave benefits

incl. balanced PAYG (Pay-as-You-Go) pension systems;

– Increase in integration/naturalization and /or immigration quotas;

– Promotion of circular migration (incl. right to return / right to regret);

Family planning strengthening – adjusted social engeneering

– Support for partners/parents to combine work and family:

• Woman easier re-entering the labor market after maternity leave;

• More flexible parental leave for fathers; etc.

– Financial incentives supportive to parenting and more children (over

2,2 replacement ratio)

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Anis - March 2005

Fluctuation of Our Human Capital beyond 2020

The EU–25 is at the same time challange and opportunity for both

the EU–15 and New EU–10:

The new Member States represent 20% of the population of the present EU–15, but only 5% of their GDP. Meaning that on enlargement, total inequality came to about 20% - twice as much as the increase in inequality due to Spain, Portugal and Greece accession in the 1980s.

– ERGO: on a short run, the Western Europe may expect same or

increased influx of migrants, asylum seekers, daily or weekend

commuters from CEE/CA. The CEES will suffer additional brain-drain.

However the ratio of annual economic growth of the New EU-10 is twice that of the EU–15 Member States.

– ERGO: on a mid/long run most of the Prime-age CEE labor-force will

respond to domestic opportunities and will not migrate. Finally, CEES

will eventually attract additional labor-force from non-European

demographic pools (incl. CA/ME, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa).

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

Decline in the Native-born Workforce

The fundamental change in age-distribution facing Europe over the

next 50 years will cause economic, political and social implications:

– The EU will have an extra 40 mil. people aged over 60 and an absolute

reduction of 40 mil. in the number of prime-age people (15-60);

– The combination of falling birthrates and increased life expectancies has

dramatically shifted the EU age distribution

(e.g. soon the medial age in Germany will be 48, in Spain 51; in Italy

by Y2050, only 5% of all children will have any collateral relatives);

– The EU Commission predicts that the ageing itself will be a prime factor

for the declining EU growth rate from 2,1% to 1,3% per annum.

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

Transatlantic demographic discrepancies

Current transatlantic Demographic differences:

US has entirely different demographic prospect: it„s younger and more

dynamic country with the higher birth rate and far more (im)migation

– its growth rate will soon carry on at about 2,5%;

How comes the discrepancy:

– the average fertility rate in the US is 2,1 (around replacement ratio),

almost 50% higher than in the EU–25;

– The “support ratio” (ratio of workers paying into retirement plans to

retirees) will erode more quickly in the EU–25 than it will in the US .

The last decade‟s annual GDP growth: the US – 3,3%, and 2,1% EU–15.

Per capita GDP has been very similar; 1,8% for US and 1,7% for EU–15.

– ERGO: The main factor driving higher US economic growth is not

greater productivity gains; it is a more rapidly expanding population.

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Anis - March 2005

Fundamental change facing Europe

The fundamental change in age-distribution facing Europe over the next 50 years will cause economic, political and social implications:

US population will overtake Europe„s in about 2030. By 2050 America„s economy will be an even bigger share of the world economy than today – most likely from present 23% to 26%, even beyond;

EU–25 (28 or 33) by contrast will have fallen from 18% to 10% share.

(Dislike the US, social absorption of immigrant labor force reaches the limits in each of the Western European states, irrespectively of what the domestic economic conjunctures need.)

– Economies like India and China are growing 4 to 5 times as fast as the EU;

– Economies like US, Japan, Korea and Malaysia spent over 3% of GDP for their R&D (twice to what the EU currently spends).

This is why the age composition of the population matters: by 2050 Europe will have over-aged and shrinking population, low growth rate, failing pension/social systems and a falling share of world output.

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

CEE: Donald Rumsfeld‘s „New Europe“

the worst demographic crisis is looming in the CIS and CEE countries:

Donald Rumsfeld„s „New Europe“ is even older than the “old Europe”;

their population could be shrinking faster & deeper than the WE – causing the total collapse of already twisting social welfare systems.

for the observed period 2005-2050, the EU-15 may expect population decline of some 5%, but most of CEE between 15% up to 20% projected for Ukraine and Russia;

(currently the CEE fertility rate is less than1,2 – almost 50% bellow the replacement ratio; net migration rate is negative – ranging from 0,4% for Poland up to 6,3% for Estonia; median age for most CEE will well cross age of 50 by year 2050 with the Slovenia being the eldest European nation of median 53,1).

due to instabilities and conflicts, the SEES suffered huge loses (some getting literally empty, e.g. Albania) and will soon transform from sending to net receiving migrant counties.

– most likely they will turn to Turkey, the Muslim East and North Africa

as the main source of fresh labor-force to fill their demographically

collapsed societies (the SEE average median age is in early 40s – of ME in early 20s)

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Anis - March 2005

CEE: Pan–European Tasks

Rapid ageing in CEE – Three dimensional challenge for Europe:

Security, Economic, HR

Depleted demographic pool within the CEE/SEE/CA and/or NA/ME:

only available migrants from the sub-Saharan Africa and mainland Asia;

bringing back to Europe – in addition to already existing ethnic frictions –

the new dimension of divide: racial tensions and serious disturbances

More political and social instabilities surrounding WE;

as CEE/SEE could move into a right-wing exclusivity and xenophobia-like

nationalistic demagogy (dislike most of WE, the CEES mostly represent

societies with the historically lower institutional response to domestic

multicultural challenges, practically inexperienced with the racial

questions, with the exception of Russia only.)

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Anis - March 2005

Limits of Ad Hoc Responses – Intakes

Limits of non-combined policy – uncontrolled migrant intakes

Rapid ageing of western societies gives additional element to already dangerous dividing line between the developed West (of median age close to 50) and the III World (with the median age in the early 20„s).

with the increased migrant intakes (non-combined with other domestic measures), such an age-divide is inevitably imported in each and every of the Western European socieites;

– domestic/indigenous population dominated by elderly females

(well-off; employed and otherwise socially protected); and

– immigrant population dominated by young angry males

(as oft unemployed, marginalized and /self–/isolated on linguistical,

cultural, racial and religious ground).

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Anis - March 2005

Limits of Ad Hoc Responses – Ageing

Limits of non-combined policy – unchecked ageing

Humans are by nature social/status-conscious animals who tend from an early age to arrange themselves in a variety of dominance hierarchies – many of these hierarchies are age-graded.

(Age-graded hierarchies make functional sense insofar as age is correlated with physical prowess, learning, experience, judgment, achievement. But, past a certain age, the correlation between age and ability begins to go in the opposite direction.)

In case of unchecked societal ageing, the natural tendency of one generation to get out of the way of the newly coming one will be replaced by the simultaneous existence of three, four or even five generations.

Political, social and economic change (including the major technological breakthroughs) primarily occurs at generation intervals (people born in the same age cohort experience major life events, and once the life‟s views and preferences have been formed by these experiences, they only adapt to new circumstances in small, modest ways).

With three or more generations active and working at the same time, the younger go-getters will never constitute more than a small minority, and generational change in future will never be fully decisive.

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

Limits of Ad Hoc Responses – Ageism

Limits of non-combined policy – from ageing to ageism

As known, later stages in life do not bring a high mobility:

If/when the median age crosses the age of 50 and beyond, the overall social mobility could seriously slow-down (given the rough global competitiveness and the accelerating rhythm of technological change).

Consequently, the elder people will have to move down the social hierarchy not just to retrain (life-long learning), but to make room for new generational entries coming up from the bottom. If they miss to do so, generational warfare will join class and ethnic conflicts as a major dividing line in society.

Getting elder people out of the way of younger ones will become a significant struggle, and societies may have to resort to impersonal, institutionalized forms of AGEISM in a future world of unchecked (regional and soon to be) global ageing.

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Anis - March 2005

Outlook for Asia

Social engeneering: from state-sponsored to parental eugenics

Due to a strict family planning (mostly in lieu of one child policy or/and sterilization), the mainland Asia and SEA will be lacking around 500 million females by y2020;

Economic vs. Political dynamism

Asia is the most economically dynamic region of the world – such a growth is the economic success story without parallel in human history;

Europe is the most multilateralized region of the world of impressive (socio-) political dynamism;

Long-range stability and security

Dislike WE/CEE, most of Asia (Caucasus, CA, continental Asia, including the sub-continent, and SEA) beyond 2020 shall be seen as a region/s of intensified nationalism, increasing population (and to it related urbanization), growing modernization and economic prosperity, expanding societal expectations (including the generational shuffles), shortage in natural resources, and overlapping power aspirations.

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Anis - March 2005

How do we register claims on future resources

Be the world Kantian or Hobbesian (thus, be it driven by the sense

of higher civilizational mission or by the need to soften the

external dependencies including those of energy), the very

projection of Europe beyond its borders especially as regards the

EU political model heavily depends on its economic might – and

this one is closely conditioned by the Europe’s social cohesion

and demographic composition.

That’s why the future composition of our Human capital poses a

three-dimensional challenge:

– Security (it‟s both components: external and internal/JHA);

– Economic (including the hindrance of sustainable development);

– Socio-political – therefore, Human Rights– related.

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Anis - March 2005

How do we register Our Claims

To address the three-dimensional challenge (Security, Economic, HR) we need a coupling effort:

– to decontaminate the expectations of Europe„s electorate from anti-politics of so-called „right-wing“ xenophobia-fixated parties; and

– to re-focus it on long–range policies (effective security is NOT restriction, but promotion).

To develop the long range-policies, we need both institution and instruments, that are:

– Pan-European; and

– Possibly dimensional as linking/including the Mediterranean, Asian and trans-Atlantic stake-holders.

Institution and Instruments comprehensive enough as to offer:

– Basic principles and framework for non existing (national) policies

including the Early warning (i); Conflict prevention (ii) and Crisis management (iii) Capacity;

– Clearing House for the harmonization among and adjustment of the existing policies; as well as the

– Monitoring of compliance (in operationalization of policies).

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Anis - March 2005

Our Future – Choice You Make Today

Besides a “walk on the edge” between selection and interpretation, this presentation is meant to be both predictive and prescriptive.

Way the leverage of such a prediction vs. prescription will be calibrated in future – is actually depending on choices you are about to make today.

The minimum my generation can do for your generation is to openly speak out the shortcomings of our (and past) age. Residual morality and the sense of ethic‟s verticality is what kept insofar generational contract working. As representing generation that was so rich on possibilities and is getting short on probabilities, let me show choices I deem you have:

Which societal engeneering you will support and contribute to:

– Static/Status Quo concept: individualism, consumerism and escapism (coupled/boosted by the security obsessed, self-isolated and in-ward looking nation-states);

– Concept of Social dynamism (based on multilateral and multicultural political institutions build-up undertakings of inclusive, just and knowledge-based societies and economies that make no trade-off between economic growth, social cohesion and environmental protection)

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Anis - March 2005

Concept of societal dynamism

Three goal orientation – Economic, Social & Human dimension:

Prosperity: Support to all three sides of the knowledge triangle: research (creation of knowledge); development/innovation (application of knowledge); education (dissemination of knowledge);

Solidarity: developmental solidarity of (primarily human dimension) through promotion of cohesion policies. This is also about preserving and developing cultural and environmental diversities;

Security: Enhancing the Human-centered safety, based on freedom, justice and inclusive collective security.

Be it external or internal, effective long-range security cannot be based on restriction and denial but on promotion and inclusion (active, not reactive).

The very same could be told for other two dimensions: prosperity and solidarity.

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Anis - March 2005

Ending this ...

... and wishing the far-reaching deliberations of our GTL Symposium:

„Let‘s be clear: in a globalized world the EU guarantees cultural diversity. To those critics who complain that Member States are losing sovereignty, I fell like saying: take your sovereignty and try seeing what you can do with it.“

– JHA Commissioner A. Vitorino, `The future European Constitution´ Barcelona, 20 OCT 03

„Let’s stop pretending that Europe doesn’t need immigrants now and in the future. Or that we don’t need a new immigration policy. … The welfare state needs to adapt to population trends too. In addition to the social pact that binds people together today, we mustn’t forget the pact between generations and the responsibility we all have towards our children. (…) That is how we can defeat those who play on people’s fears with the politics of scare-mongering and rejectionism. Such groups and their backward-looking views are the true threat to our deepest values.“

– EC President Romano PRODI, `The future of the Union of 25´ Strasbourg, 23 SEP 04

I thank for Your

attention !

Destiny Shared

Anis - March 2005

Tragicomic side of Stereotyping …

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Anis - March 2005

Speaker‘s Biography

Anis H. Bajrektarevic (1964, Sarajevo)

Former legal practitioner and the president of Young Lawyer Association of BiH Bar (late ’80s). Former MFA official and career diplomat (early ’90s). Research Fellow at the Institute for Modern Political-history analyses, Dr. Bruno Kreisky Foundation (mid ’90s). Legal and Political Advisor for CEE at the Vienna-based Political Academy, Dr. Karl Renner (late ’90s).

From February 1996 to December 2001, he served as a Senior Legal Officer and Permanent Representative to the UN Office in Vienna (ICMPD Liaison unit with Governments and IOs) at the Vienna based HQ of the Intergovernmental Organization ICMPD (International Centre for Migration Policy Development).

Between 1994 and 2002, he additionally served on a consultancy basis following entities: the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins SAIS – Washington; the Malaysian Chamber of Commerce; the Council of Europe, Directorate of Legal Affairs – Strasbourg; and the American Bar Association CEELI/ALC – Washington.

(Consultancies also include the ongoing capacity of Expert of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe /OSCE – EEA/ for 2004 – 05.)

Attached to the IMC University, Department EXP EU – NAFTA – ASEAN, apart from teaching subjects of Geo-political Affairs, International Strategies, International Law, and Ethics (dept. of Biotechnology), since September 2002 he serves as a Chairman for the International Law and Global Political Studies.

Prof. Bajrektarevic is the author of dozens JHA– and SD–related presentations, publications, speeches, seminars and research colloquiums. He lives in Vienna, Austria.

Contact: anis.bajrektarevic@imc-krems.ac.at