Destination Management Forum Research Update · % Businesses Reporting Change in Visitor Numbers...
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Sharon Orrell October 2013 Destination Management Forum Research Update
Transcript of Destination Management Forum Research Update · % Businesses Reporting Change in Visitor Numbers...
Sharon Orrell October 2013
Destination Management Forum Research Update
£19.5
£48.5
£16.3
Tourism Spend in England 2012 (£bn)
Domestic Overnight
Domestic Day Trips
Inbound
Source: GBTS 2012, GBDVS 2012, IPS 2012
Total tourism spending in England in 2012 was c.£84bn – 10% up on 2011
1%
4%
-16%
-3%
4%
13%
-4%
-1%
Outbound Trips (Jan - July)
Inbound Tourism (Jan - July)
Tourism Day Trips (Jan - July)
Domestic Overnight (Jan-June)
Tourism Performance H1 2013
Value Volume
Poor weather at the start of the year has impacted domestic results
Source: GBTS / GBDVS / IPS
0
5
10
15
20
25
Seaside Large Town / City Small Town Countryside / Village
Domestic Overnight Trips January - June
2011 2012 2013
Like last year, trends have varied by destination type Trips
(m)
Source: GBTS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
South West South East North West London Yorks &Humb
WestMidlands
East EastMidlands
North East
Domestic Overnight Trips January - June
2011 2012 2013
...and this is reflected in regional results Trips
(m)
Source: GBTS
(39%) (50%) (10%)
Weather on England Good Mixed Poor holiday
(36%) (55%) (9%) (2010)
(2009)
(39%) (54%) (7%) (2011)
(31%) (57%) (12%) (2012)
56% 40% 2013 holiday
4%
But then....
Source: Staycation Research, Sept 2013
(39%) (50%) (10%)
Weather on England Good Mixed Poor holiday
(36%) (55%) (9%) (2010)
(2009)
(39%) (54%) (7%) (2011)
(31%) (57%) (12%) (2012)
56% 40% 2013 holiday
4%
But then....
Source: Staycation Research, Sept 2013
81
2
17
80
16
4
It hasn't affected how I feel about takingholidays in England next year
It's put me off taking holidays in Englandnext year
It's made me more likely to take holidays inEngland next year
Impact of Weather on Future Holiday Intentions
2013
2012
Some of our visitors will always be influenced by the weather - though most aren’t
Source: VE Staycation Research
33 30
23 22
33 32 28
44
54
39 40
28
36 40
43
35
49
66
April 2012 Jun-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13
% Businesses Reporting Increased Visitors in Recent Period
Accommodation Attractions
Summer 2012 business performance results the most positive since starting this survey
Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor
73 51
39 56 55
84 62
15 17 27 27 32 10
25
Hotels GuestHouses /
B&Bs
Self-Catering Caravan /Camping
IndoorAttractions
OutdoorAttractions
MixedAttractions
% Businesses Reporting Change in Visitor Numbers – Summer Holidays 2013
Increased Decreased
...though trends differ by business type
Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Ap
r-0
6
Jun
-06
Au
g-0
6
Oct
-06
Dec
-06
Feb
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Jun
-07
Au
g-0
7
Oct
-07
Dec
-07
Feb
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jun
-08
Au
g-0
8
Oct
-08
Dec
-08
Feb
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
Oct
-09
Dec
-09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jun
-10
Au
g-1
0
Oct
-10
Dec
-10
Feb
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jun
-11
Au
g-1
1
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Domestic Tourism in England – Rolling 12 Month Trend Trips
(m)
The longer term view shows stability in leisure travel since 2009
Source: GBTS
Holiday
VFR
Business
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
UK GDP by Quarter
It seems the economy is finally emerging from recession
People are now less concerned about the economy than they were – but over half are still worried about making ends meet
70
75
63
58
61 64
74 72
70
67 69
61
53
59 60
65 66
65 64
66
60
52 54
47 49
54
57
60 61
59 58
59
55
Oct/Nov08
Feb/Mar09
Jun-09 Oct/Nov09
Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Sep-13
% strongly / slightly agree
Very concerned aboutit
Concerned about jobsecurity
Worried about makingends meet
Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research
25 27 25 25 24 24 20 19 17 18 17 15
55 52 53 51 52 54 51 53 52 50 52
47
10 13 13 15 17 16 20 16
14 19 22 28
10 8 8 9 6 6 9 12 17 13 9 10
Sep-13Feb-13Sep-12Feb-12Sep-11Mar-11Sep-10Feb-10Oct-09Jun-09Feb-09Oct/Nov08
Seriously affected Affected a little Hasn’t affected, but concerned Hasn’t affected, not worried
And the numbers affected by the downturn haven’t shifted much (38% of families still “seriously affected”)
Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ... 2023
UK Domestic Holiday Trips 2006 - 2023
What happens next???
Source: GBTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Outbound Trips by UK Residents 1989 -2012
The growth of outbound travel started during the last recession
Trips
(m)
Source: International Passenger Survey
Recession Recession
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Domestic Overnight Tourism Trips 1989-1998 (Millions)
Total UK UK Holiday (Pure Holiday + VFR Holiday)
...but domestic travel also grew from 1993 onwards
Source: UKTS/GBTS Note: a 3% upweight has been applied to 2010-12 data in place of Northern Ireland results
Recession
Among 2013 “switchers” (those who took a domestic holiday instead of going abroad...)
52%
49%
It made me want to take more holidays inEngland
It made me want to take a holiday abroadnext time
% Agree
55%
49%
Sept 2012
Among 2013 “switchers” (those who took a domestic holiday instead of going abroad...)
52%
49%
It made me want to take more holidays inEngland
It made me want to take a holiday abroadnext time
% Agree
55%
49%
Sept 2012
Coming Soon....
• VE have commissioned research looking at trends affecting domestic tourism in the medium to long term, working with futures consultancy Trajectory
• Launching at the Visitor Economy Conference (5th December)
• Deliverables are still being developed, but alongside a traditional report, we’re looking at a microsite / online discussion forum / webinar / workshop pack and more...
• We’ll want to work with you to make sure you and your stakeholders can use this to plan for the next few years
Just a taster...
