Designing Sustainable Low-Carbon Transport Systems ...
Transcript of Designing Sustainable Low-Carbon Transport Systems ...
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UNCRD workshop (13/5/30)UNCRD workshop (13/5/30)
Designing Sustainable LowDesigning Sustainable Low--Carbon Transport Carbon Transport Systems integrated with Regional Systems integrated with Regional
Development in AsiaDevelopment in Asia
Prof. Yoshitsugu HayashiDr. Kazuki Nakamura
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya UniversityInt’l Center for Sustainable Transport and Cities
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Risk of rapid growth in CORisk of rapid growth in CO22 emissions in emissions in developing countries in Asiadeveloping countries in Asia
Per C
apita
GHG Emission
Low Carbon SocietyBackcastingDeveloping Countries
Leap‐frog
Developed Countries
Framework of Backcasting Approach to Developing Framework of Backcasting Approach to Developing LowLow--Carbon Transport SystemsCarbon Transport Systems
•Travel Distance•Modal Share•Emission Factor by mode
•Travel Distance•Modal Share•Emission Factor by mode
Travel Demand(Habits)•Necessity to Travel•Local Travel•Diverse Destination•Mode Preferences
Travel Demand(Habits)•Necessity to Travel•Local Travel•Diverse Destination•Mode Preferences
Economic Growth
Economic Economic GrowthGrowth
Innovation in ICT
Innovation Innovation in ICTin ICTAgeingAgeingAgeing
Employment
Education
Safety Health Environment
Life Style•Information Dependence•Community •Leisure•Sharing
Life Style•Information Dependence•Community •Leisure•Sharing
Socio-Economic Systems
GDP QOL CO2
Land-use Transport Policies
Land-use Transport PoliciesOther PoliciesOther Policies
Financial & Institutional Coordination(Domestic & International)
Financial & Institutional Coordination(Domestic & International)
Elements
Indicators
Other Systems Land-use Transport System
Future Vision ScenariosPolicy D
esignPolicy D
esign
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
per‐capita GDP (1000 US$)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Popu
lation
(1000 pe
ople)
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
per‐capita GDP (1000 US$)
Economic Growth in Japan
Economic Growth in Asia (Forecast)
x 4.5
China (x 5.5~8.9)
SocioSocio‐‐Economic Trends in AsiaEconomic Trends in AsiaPopulation Growth in Japan
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Popu
lation
growth ratio from
2010
Japan
China
Thailand
Population Growth in Asia (Forecast)
x 1.36
(x 1.03)
(x 0.97)
(x 0.86)
Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision
Thailand (x 3.7~8.1)
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時間
Visioning Future Transport Systems with Key IndicatorsVisioning Future Transport Systems with Key Indicators
時間
GDP・・・
London
(2008)
Tokyo
Reference
(2007)
Car Bus Rail Walk
CO2
1989 2005 2050
Car56%
Bus38%
Rail4%
Walk2%
Car43%Bus
41%
Walk16%
BAU
Leap‐Frog
What are necessary policies to realize it?
What are necessary policies to realize it?
Avoid Unnecessary TravelShift to Low‐Carbon Mode
Improve Transport Emission intensity
AVOID
SFHIT
IMPROVE
Ageing
Bangkok
Policy/technology optionsPolicy/technology options((CUTE MatrixCUTE Matrix))Strategies
MeansAVOID SHIFT IMPROVE
Technologies
• Transport oriented development (TOD)
• Poly-centric development• Efficient freight distribution
• Railways and BRT development
• Interchange improvement among railway, BRT, bus and para-transit modes
• Facilities for personal mobility and pedestrians
• Development of electric vehicles
• Development of biomass fuel
• "Smart grid“ development
Regulations • Land-use control
• Separation of bus/para-transit trunk and feeder routes
• Local circulating service• Control on driving and parking
• Emissions standards• “Top-runner" approach
Information• Telecommuting• Online shopping• Lifestyle change
• ITS public transport operation
• "Eco-driving"• ITS traffic-flow management• Vehicle performance labeling
Economy • Subsidies and taxation to location
• Park & ride• Cooperative fare systems among modes
• Fuel tax/carbon tax• Subsidies and taxation to low-emissions vehicles
Trip Frequency
Built‐up Area Public Transport Network
Traffic Speed
Fossil Fuel Share
Road Network
Urban Compactness
× ×
Travel Demand Car Dependency Technology(Travel Distance)
GDP GDP
(CO2 Emission Factor)
GDP
(Modal Split)=
AVOIDAVOID SHIFTSHIFT IMPROVEIMPROVEMitigationMitigation
Car Ownership
LEV Share
Dynamic Tracking of Transport Related Emission Mechanism Dynamic Tracking of Transport Related Emission Mechanism
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Feasibility of Policy ImplementationFeasibility of Policy Implementation
[Billion USD]
Increasing limitation to transport investment due to ageing and population decline
Increasing public investment in economic growth
Thailand Japan
What are necessary frameworks to implement policies to realize the future vision?
What are necessary frameworks to implement policies to realize the future vision?
[Billion USD]
Current GDPTotal budget
Share of transportation budget
Current GDPTotal budget
Share of social welfare budget
Share of public work budget
Steps of the Backcasting ApproachSteps of the Backcasting Approach
Capturing Key Causal Relationship of CO2
Emissions from Transport
Selecting Effective Policy Packages to Realize
the Vision
Examining the Feasibility of Policy
Implementation
Visioning Low Carbon Transport Systems
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Steps of the Backcasting ApproachSteps of the Backcasting Approach
Capturing Key Causal Relationship of CO2
Emissions from Transport
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Causal Relationship of TransportCausal Relationship of Transport‐‐related COrelated CO2 2 Emissions in AsiaEmissions in Asia::Vicious Circles between Motorization and Urban SprawlVicious Circles between Motorization and Urban Sprawl
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Economic growth
Income growthIncome growth
Higher car ownershipHigher car ownership
More car use
More car use
Urbanization
Urbanization
Larger built-up
area
Larger built-up
area
Longer travel
distance
Longer travel
distance
Road-oriented development
Road-oriented development
Traffic congestion
Traffic congestion
Economic Damage
Economic Damage
Environmental Problems
Environmental Problems
Technology level
Technology level
More energy consumptionMore energy consumption
Poor access to public transportPoor access to public transport
Motorization (SHIFT)
Urban Sprawl (AVOID)
Disadvantages (IMPROVE)
Car plate auction
Freight traffic restriction zone
Railway/BRTdevelopment
Station‐area development
Emission standards
Expressway development
Car plate restriction
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Excessive car-park provisionExcessive car-park provision
The Trend of Car Ownership GrowthThe Trend of Car Ownership Growth
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Per capita GDP [Constant 2003 USD]
Car ownership rate [cars/ 1000 inhabitants]
2011
2010
2010
2006
2010
2010
Nagoya
Tokyo
Shanghai
Beijing
Bangkok
Delhi
The Trend of Traffic CongestionThe Trend of Traffic Congestion
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0246810
k
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Bangkok
Tokyo
London
Nagoya
1972
1986
1993
1971
1988
1972
1987
1993
1972
1988
1972
1986
1993
1972
1993
1971
1988
Ro
ad
len
gth
pe
r ca
r(m/c
ar)
Car ownership(car/1,000 inhabitants)Speed (min/km)
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The Trend of Road DevelopmentThe Trend of Road Development
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Length (%
of the
current levels)
GRP per capita (US$)
Tokyo
20052000
198019701960
1960
1970
1980
1990
19902000
Road
Rail
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Length (%
of the
current levels)
GRP per capita (US$)
Bangkok
Rail
Road2011
1990
2001
1995
20082004
20031999
2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Length (%
of the
current levels)
GRP per capita (US$)
Shanghai
Road
Rail
2007
2006
2006
2003
2003
2000
1997
20001993
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Length (%
of the
current levels)
GRP per capita (US$)
Beijing
20092006
2005
1997
1978
1978 1986‐19911992‐1998
2002
Road
Rail
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20002000 20102010 FutureFuture
Development of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT)Development of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT)1
0 10 20 30 405km
Ü
123km
0 10 20 30 405km
Ü
20km
4,835km
6,641km 11,974km
Megacities in Asian developing countries have started MRT development since the early 2000s
Megacities in Asian developing countries have started MRT development since the early 2000s
4,392km
22.9km 73.3km509km(plan)
0 10 20 30 405km
Ü Ü
4,835km
Ü
~5,000 ~10,000 ~30,000 ~50,000 ~100,000Population[person]
2000 2005 2010
Shanghai (6,400km2)
Pop[million] Rail length[km]
Rail length
City center(114km2)
Urban fringe(550km2)
Suburb(5,737km2)
2000 2005 2010
Bangkok (7,650km2)Pop[million] Rail length[km]
City center(129km2)
Urban fringe(1,051km2)
Suburb(6,473km2)
Rail length
Changes in Urban FormsChanges in Urban Forms1
Steps of the Backcasting ApproachSteps of the Backcasting Approach
Visioning Low Carbon Transport Systems
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Vision 2050: Urban TransportUrban Transport
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Hierarchically Connected Compact CityHierarchically Connected Compact City
railway, bus rapid transit, conventional bus, para‐transit, personal mobility
small vehicle, renewable energy
+ biomass fuel
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Key Options of the Vision (Urban Transport)Key Options of the Vision (Urban Transport)
Safe Transport to Secure Safe Transport to Secure Communal EducationCommunal Education
Reliable Transport to Reliable Transport to Support Economic GrowthSupport Economic Growth
Diverse Transport to Diverse Transport to Contribute to Healthy LifeContribute to Healthy Life
To form habits not to use carsTo form habits not to use cars
Sub CentersSub Centers
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CBDCBDTransitTransit‐‐Oriented Polycentric SystemsOriented Polycentric Systems
MultiMulti‐‐Purpose Purpose Transport SystemsTransport Systems
Quality MRT SystemsQuality MRT Systems
A
B
C
Policy Package of Transit-Oriented Polycentric Developmentfor Early-stage Developing Cities with Land-use Control
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Transit-Oriented Sub Center Development
MRT developmentIntegrated fare system among modesIntegrated fare system among modesComfortable bus stopsComfortable bus stops
Value CaptureValue Capture
Development axes
Curitiba BRT
2 A
Provision of local employment & educationProvision of local employment & education
Policy Package of Quality MRT Developmentfor Early-stage Developing Cities without Land-use Control
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MRT Infrastructure/ Management Improvement
Bogota BRT
Traffic controlTraffic controlICT-based operationICT-based operationExpress lines, Large capacity carriersExpress lines, Large capacity carriers
2 B
(Sun, G., LTA)
Punggol LRT• Orbital local network
• 10km, 15 stations
• Connection to MRT
• Automatic operation
Policy Package of Multi-Purpose Transport Developmentfor Developing Mega-cities
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Feeder Transport ImprovementProvision of feeder circular routesProvision of feeder circular routes
Suburban Urban-Village Development
Singapore LRT
2 C
Neighborhood design connected to transit servicesNeighborhood design connected to transit services
Street improvement for personal mobility & pedestriansStreet improvement for personal mobility & pedestrians
Multi-socioeconomic neighborhood developmentMulti-socioeconomic neighborhood development
Steps of the Backcasting ApproachSteps of the Backcasting Approach
Selecting Effective Policy Packages to Realize
the Vision
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Testing Development Scenarios of Megacities; Testing Development Scenarios of Megacities; Bangkok, ThailandBangkok, Thailand
20052050 Road‐oriented Development Scenario
2050 Rail‐oriented Development Scenario
SHIFT(Rail Network)
AVOID(Spatial Distribution of Population)
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Is Rail development more effective than Road development?Is Rail development more effective than Road development?
Estimated Time Saving from Road and Rail Estimated Time Saving from Road and Rail Development (Bangkok)Development (Bangkok)
25
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Develop
men
t cost
(billion US$)
Dra2
Sra1
Sra2
Rail‐oriented
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Average
trip rim
e (h/trip)
Transport volume(million trips)
Rail transport
Do Nothing
*1 In the Do-Nothing case, no investment in transport development would be made from 2005 to 2010.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Develop
men
t cost
(billion US$)
Rail‐oriented
Do NothingSro1
Sro2
Dro2Dro1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Average trip tim
e (h/trip)
Transport volume (million trips)
Road transport
Road‐oriented
Estimated COEstimated CO22 Mitigation in BangkokMitigation in Bangkok
8.1%
8.1% 55.8
%
55.8%
2005 2050 Rail‐Oriented Development
2050 Road‐Oriented Development
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Car59%
Rail2%
Bus29%
Walk10%
Car97%
Rail0.2%
Bus3%
Walk0.4%
Car32%
Rail66%
Bus2%
Walk0.4%
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首都:バンコク首都:バンコク
Khon KeanKhon Kean
200km450㎞ from BangkokPop 240,000Area 230 km2
5 Routes of BRT Planned to operate from 2022
Testing Development Scenarios of MiddleTesting Development Scenarios of Middle‐‐sized Cities;sized Cities;Khon Kean, ThailandKhon Kean, Thailand
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ZONE境界
幹線道路
CBDエリア
2km
ZONE境界
幹線道路
CBDエリア
ソンテウルート
2km
BRT Pink LineBRT Blue LineBRT Green LineBRT Red LineBRT Yellow Line
ZONE境界
幹線道路
CBDエリア
2km
BangkokBangkok
3
(Nihon Univ.)
The Future Vision of Khon KeanThe Future Vision of Khon Kean
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Seamless &Hierarchical
Transportation System
Leverage Advanced
Technologies
Hierarchical Compact City
Bio Ethanol Production and Ethanol Bus Introduction
ImproveShiftShiftAvoidAvoidWith TOD case in 2022
3
(Nihon Univ.)
Shift
Avoid
Improve
72.6%
Ethanol
HV
38.5%PV->BRT
Estimated COEstimated CO22 Mitigation in Khon KeanMitigation in Khon Kean
29
3
(Nihon Univ.)
Policies Policies in previous studies on Vientianein previous studies on Vientiane3
(Nihon Univ.)
Map of Bus lines
BRT 1
BRT 2
BRT 3
National University of Laos
Friendship Bridge
Map of proposed BRT lines
Development Scenarios of MiddleDevelopment Scenarios of Middle‐‐sized Cities;sized Cities;Vientiane, LaosVientiane, Laos
3
(Nihon Univ.)
LowLow‐‐Carbon Urban Transport Mode by Region Carbon Urban Transport Mode by Region in Thailandin Thailand
Railway (4 cities)LRT (2 cities)BRT (16 cities)
Car (7 cities)
150300
600
Population of a region
[x10,000]
32
3
Steps of the Backcasting ApproachSteps of the Backcasting Approach
Examining the Feasibility of Policy
Implementation
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Identifying Necessary Levels Identifying Necessary Levels of of MRT DevelopmentMRT Developmentto achieve 70% to achieve 70% COCO22 mitigation target in Urban mitigation target in Urban
TransportTransport
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Mitigation Scenario
70%
CO2排出量[Gt-CO2/year]
Avoid
Shift
Improve
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Mitigation Scenario
70%
CO2排出量[Gt-CO2/year]
Avoid
Shift
Improve
ThailandChina
・・・
4
Length of additional MRT development in Thailand
Rail
LRT・BRT
Length of MRT (Rail, LRT, BRT) in each city
km
AVOID : land‐use control (5%/year less expansion of built‐up area) IMPROVE: Increasing LEV share (EV76%, HV23%),
Improving Energy Efficiencies (by 28%)Improving power generation efficiencies (17.6 times)
Development Cost
2010 2050
International Support
Domestic Investment
Examining Financial Feasibility of the MRT Examining Financial Feasibility of the MRT DevelopmentDevelopment
The Marginal Mitigation Cost decides Effectiveness of Investment depending on Sectors and Regions.
The Marginal Mitigation Cost decides Effectiveness of Investment depending on Sectors and Regions.
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Effective Investment in the Transport Sector
Urban Transport($/t‐CO2)
All‐Sector Average($/t‐CO2)
741 816
Estimated Marginal Mitigation Cost in Thailand in 2050
9.2% less
DiscussionDiscussion
• What is the challenges of developing low‐carbon transport systems integrated with regional development in Asian developing countries?
• What is the visions of the desirable system?
• How can we realize the vision with measuresin a leapfrog manner?
• Is it feasible to implement such measures?
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