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Transcript of Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the...
![Page 1: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development)
Decisions for the Decade
?All Partic
ipate
(...expect confusion...)
How do we make smart long-term decisions?
![Page 2: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Country 1
Country 2
Country 3
Provinces
![Page 3: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
2. Decisions are individualNo consulting with others on Provincial DecisionsDo collaborate during National Decisions
BASIC RULES
1. Simplification of realityNo challenging the rules!
3. We will play 4 decades of decision makingEach round is 10 years
![Page 4: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
DEVELOPMENT InvestmentEarn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTIONIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS 3. OBSERVATIONS 4. RESULTS
FLOODProtection
(0 - 9)DEVELOPMENT
(1 - 10)DROUGHTProtection
(0 - 9)ChooseRobust Option?
Annual Precipitation #Crises
#Prosperity
PointsDecade
1
2 Yes / No
3 Yes / No
4 Yes / No
TOTAL:
How to Win
Winning Provinces• Fewest Crises out of ALL players• Max 1 provicial winner per country• Tiebreaker within country:
province with most prosperity points
1 Winning Country:• Most Prosperity Points• Tiebreaker: country with fewest
crises
![Page 5: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
DROUGHT PROTECTIONIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DEVELOPMENT InvestmentEarn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no crisis
![Page 6: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
DEVELOPMENT InvestmentEarn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTIONIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…
![Page 7: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
DEVELOPMENT InvestmentEarn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTIONIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…
![Page 8: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
DEVELOPMENT InvestmentEarn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTIONIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
If just 1 drought occurs……we get 9 Prosperity Points!
![Page 9: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
DEVELOPMENT InvestmentEarn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTIONIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
But, what if we had a second drought?Not enough protection…
…means a humanitarian crisis …and 0 prosperity points!
Each shortage of protection is a new crisis!
![Page 10: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
1. Scientific InformationProbabilities, Predictions, Etc.
3. ObservationsRains, Teammate Decisions
4. ResultsCrisis….or Prosperity Points?
2. DecisionYour 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection
![Page 11: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1. Scientific InformationProbabilities, Predictions, Etc.
3. ObservationsRains, Teammate Decisions
4. ResultsCrisis….or Prosperity Points?
2. DecisionYour 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection
![Page 12: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Dro
ught
Sev
erity
Rati
ng
1. SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION
![Page 13: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
1. Scientific InformationProbabilities, Predictions, Etc.
3. ObservationsRains, Teammate Decisions
4. ResultsCrisis….or Prosperity Points?
2. DecisionYour 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection
![Page 15: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS 3. OBSERVATIONS 4. RESULTS
FLOODProtection
(0 - 9)DEVELOPMENT
(1 - 10)DROUGHTProtection
(0 - 9)ChooseRobust Option?
Annual Precipitation #Crises
#Prosperity
PointsDecade
1 0 9 12 Yes / No
3 Yes / No
4 Yes / No
TOTAL:
DEVELOPMENT InvestmentEarn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTIONIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
2. DECISIONS
![Page 16: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Province 1 Province 2
![Page 17: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1. Provincial decisions are independent
2. National decisions require teamwork• Default is to invest in development• Consensus to invest in protection
National and Provincial Decisions
![Page 18: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
1. Scientific InformationProbabilities, Predictions, Etc.
3. ObservationsRains, Teammate Decisions
4. ResultsCrisis….or Prosperity Points?
2. DecisionYour 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection
![Page 19: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
3. OBSERVATIONSTen years of rainfall occur
![Page 20: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
3. OBSERVATIONSTen years of rainfall occur
2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS 3. OBSERVATIONS 4. RESULTS
FLOODProtection
(0 - 9)DEVELOPMENT
(1 - 10)DROUGHTProtection
(0 - 9)ChooseRobust Option?
Annual Precipitation #Crises
#Prosperity
PointsDecade
1 0 9 1 1, 4, 3, 3, 2, 5, 1, 3, 5, 4
2 Yes / No
3 Yes / No
4 Yes / No
TOTAL:
![Page 21: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
1. Scientific InformationProbabilities, Predictions, Etc.
3. ObservationsRains, Teammate Decisions
4. ResultsCrisis….or Prosperity Points?
2. DecisionYour 10-Year Investment in Development and Protection
![Page 22: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
4. RESULTS
Province 1 Province 2
4. RESULTS
#Crises
#Prosperity
Points
0 6
TOTAL:
![Page 23: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
4. RESULTS
4. RESULTS
#Crises
#Prosperity
Points
0 6
TOTAL:
4. RESULTS
#Crises
#Prosperity
Points
1 0
TOTAL:
Province 1 Province 2
![Page 24: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Let’s Play!!!
![Page 25: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
1. SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION Historical Rainfall
= Drought
= Flood
![Page 26: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Robust OptionGuarantees: ? points
Costs: 10 beans
![Page 27: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Have you heard about…
CLIMATE CHANGE?
= Drought
= Flood
1
6 7 8
![Page 28: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
We have a NEW MODEL for climate change...
Normal
Flood
Drought
![Page 29: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Final Results: Decades 1-3 ONLY
2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS 3. OBSERVATIONS 4. RESULTS
FLOODProtection
(0 - 9)DEVELOPMENT
(1 - 10)DROUGHTProtection
(0 - 9)ChooseRobust Option?
Annual Precipitation #Crises
#Prosperity
PointsDecade
1
2 Yes / No
3 Yes / No
4 Yes / No
TOTAL:
![Page 30: Designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce35503460f949ae9c4/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
This game was designed by Pablo Suarez and Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre) for the World Bank Chief Economist for Sustainable Development, with additional support from the American Red Cross and CDKN.
The development process was part of a research grant to the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre from the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN Action Lab Innovation Fund). As such, it is an output from a project funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Netherlands Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS) for the benefit of developing countries. However, the views expressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of or endorsed by DFID, DGIS or the entities managing the delivery of the Climate and Development Knowledge Network, which can accept no responsibility or liability for such views, completeness or accuracy of the information or for any reliance placed on them.