Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems
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Transcript of Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems
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biosecurity built on science
PBCRC 2110 Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems
Michael Renton and Maggie Triska
Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre
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biosecurity built on science
Problem being addressed
Optimal surveillance design
(what’s the best way to look for something you don’t want to find)
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biosecurity built on science
Problem being addressed
What is the best design for a surveillance system?
- Number of samples (traps etc)
- Location of sampling
- Frequency of sampling
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biosecurity built on science
General methods specific applications
Three case studies
- Grape phylloxera
- PCN
- Fruit fly
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biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera
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biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera
High virulenceLow virulence
High suitabilityMedium suitability
Low suitability
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biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera
Standard
↑↓ Density
Target high
suitability soil
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biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera results
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biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera results
Surveillance design based on soil types
- More efficient
Sampling density
- Relatively minor effect
Low virulent genotypes in low suitability conditions
- Many, many years before detection
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biosecurity built on science
Vic statistical areas
Properties
Movement
Fresh Seed
PCN
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biosecurity built on science
Spread simulations
Infested Detected
- Predict spread under different surveillance strategies
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biosecurity built on science
PCN results
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biosecurity built on science
PCN summary
Survey density ↑
- ↓ infested properties
Survey arrangement (with fixed density)
- variation between strategies
Detection
Surveillance: Region +
Random
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biosecurity built on science
Fruit fly
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biosecurity built on science
Individual
trees
Orchards
High risk
introduction
sites
Initial
Incursion
Initial
Incursion
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biosecurity built on science
Surveillance (trapping) designs
grid random
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biosecurity built on science
adhockmeans
firstfirst
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biosecurity built on science
Results!
Better!
1 10 100 1000 10000
N trees
pro
ba
bility
0.0
00
10
.00
10
.01
0.1
1
gridadhoc
firstfirstkmeansrandom
0 100 200 300 400
days to detection
pro
ba
bility
0.0
00
10
.00
10
.01
0.1
1
gridadhoc
firstfirstkmeansrandom
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biosecurity built on science
NZ MPI: Q-fly case study
Data from 2015 Q-fly incursion
Analysis of surveillance to confirm eradication
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biosecurity built on science
Open questions and next steps
Practicality and adoption of designs?
Ease of use (training module for fruit fly)
Ease of generalisation
- to new locations, species, organisms, situations…
Effects of biology and spread?
Effects of better detection?
- Better traps (sooner, longer distances, mobile, adaptive)
- Better sampling/diagnostic methods
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biosecurity built on science
Thanks!
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biosecurity built on science
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biosecurity built on science
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biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera
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biosecurity built on science
PCN
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biosecurity built on science
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biosecurity built on science
Probability of detection from active and passive surveillance increasing as a function of time since first infestation of a field.
0 5 10 15
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
t
p
active
passive
Detection and diagnostics?
1 5 10 50 500 5000
N trees
pro
ba
bility
0.0
00
10
.00
10
.01
0.1
1grid
adhocopt_timeopt_ninfs
firstfirstkmeansrandom