Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris Remediation ...B. Noble, Y. Almanee, A. Shakir, S. Park...
Transcript of Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris Remediation ...B. Noble, Y. Almanee, A. Shakir, S. Park...
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• In the last 10 years, the number of satellites has grown 59%
from 819 to 1305, and revenues have risen 92% from $105.5
billion to $203 billion.
• Current space environment is overpopulated which leads to an
increase in collision risk
• FurtherresearchanddevelopmentisrequiredtobringelectromagneticdesignstoareasonableTRLforimplementation
• Furtherresearchintode-orbitingtechniquesandratesofmass-lossforaccuratede-orbiting
Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris Remediation SystemB. Noble, Y. Almanee, A. Shakir, S. Park
System Engineering & Operations Research, George Mason University
Context Method of AnalysisProblem / Need
Conceptual results:
>>Read in TLE data>>Read in parameters from DOE>>OUTPUT:>>Deploy NET to remediate object 00011 at time 0>>Deploy NET to remediate object 01584 at time 543>>Deploy NET to remediate object 01314 at time 674>>Deploy HARPOON to remediate object 04964 at time 721>>etc…
These results feed into our utility analysis and value hierarchy
Recommendations
• Post Mission Disposal (PMD) alone is not sufficient to control debris environment; remediation will be necessary.
• In order to maintain a sustainable space environment, there is a need to remediated at least 5 high-risk object per year
Design Alternatives
Utility vs Life Cycle Costs
Result I Result II
Design: Utility/Cost:
ThrowNet 5.74
Harpoon 61.79
EDDE 0.45
Design: Utility/Cost:
Inflatables 0.55
Propulsion 4.66
EDDE 0.45
Infl.+Prop. 1.20
1. Launch and Rendezvous: Convert TLE data to state vectors.
2. Grapple: Takes in metrics and outputs objects score.
3. De-tumble: Debris will cease rotation.
4. De-orbit: Time to de-orbit decreases as is increases
1.Launchand2.Rendezvous Designs
Name: Stage: Mass (kg): CosttoLEO($/kg):
Delta IV 1 6,747 $13,0722 301
Atlas V 1 5,479 $13,1822 166
Falcon 9 1 418,100 $4,1092 96,570
CONOPSStep: DesignAlternatives:1. Launch Chemical Propulsion
2. Rendezvous Electric PropulsionChemical Propulsion
3. Grapple
Robotic ArmThrow NetHarpoonCOBRA IRIDES
4. De-tumble Electric PropulsionChemical Propulsion
5. De-orbit
EDDEInflatablesElectric PropulsionChemical PropulsionElectromagnetic
3.GrappleDesigns
Name: TRL:Mass (kg):
Target Mass (kg):
Robotic Arm 6 80 7000Throw Net 5 60 10000Harpoon 4 9.3 9000COBRA IRIDES 3 140 150EDDE 2 76 8300
5.De-orbitDesigns
Name: Description:Mass (kg):
EDDE Systemofelectrodynamic tethers 80
Inflatables Add foamtodebris toincreasesurfacearea 1000
Propulsion Modify thealtitude 314DeltaIV Harpoon
EDDE
Design: Recommended: Cost:
Launch and Rendezvous Falcon 9 $61.2M
Grapple Harpoon $7.96M
De-orbit Propulsion + Inflatables $40M
Total $109.16M
Value Hierarchy
Throw Net Weight Value
Attribute
s
Performance 0.47 7.01545Object Scores 0.86 8.1575Delta-V Cost 0.14 0
Risk 0.19 2.128Safety 0.80 2.24Reliability 0.20 1.68
TRL 0.14 5Political Viability 0.20 2.154
Agreeability 0.86 1.65Verifiability 0.14 5.25
Utility 4.8312356
Harpoon Weight Likely
Attribute
s
Performance 0.47 8.3463Object Scores 0.86 9.705Delta-V Cost 0.14 0
Risk 0.19 1.52Safety 0.80 1.6Reliability 0.20 1.2
TRL 0.14 4Political Viability 0.20 0.735
Agreeability 0.86 0Verifiability 0.14 5.25
Utility 4.918349417
Business Case
• 385satelliteownersoperatingover1200satellites
• Thegoalistocapture36%ofthismarketoverthenext20years
• Pessimisticestimateof13%
• Optimisticestimateof99%
Duration Pessimistic Expected Optimistic Stock Market
5 years -79% 29% 354% 128%
10 years 88% 484% 1675% 163%
15 years 389% 1255% 3852% 208%
MarketSize
ReturnonInvestment
SCAN for further details