Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris...
Transcript of Design and Evaluation of an Orbital Debris...
DesignandEvaluationofanOrbitalDebrisRemediationSystem
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CollisionRisk
RemediationDesigns
DebrisRemediationSystems
UtilityvsLCC
ADRDesignEvaluation
*Spaceobjectsnottoscale
Agenda
• Background• ProblemStatement• DesignAlternatives• MethodofAnalysis• ResultsandRecommendations• BusinessCase
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UsesofSpaceandRevenue
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Source:SIASSIR,2015
OperationalSatellitesbyFunction (left)andGlobalSatelliteIndustryRevenues(right)
ContributionstoSpaceDebrisRisk1. State-sponsoredactiveanti-satellitemeasures– ChineseASATmissile,2007
2. Randomcollisions,explosions,andmalfunctions– Iridium33andCosmos2251,2009– 3000piecesofdebris
4Source:T.S.Kelso,2013
DebrisCloud 3HoursPostCollision DebrisCloud 27Months PostCollision
PopulationGrowth• 90%PostMission
Disposal(PMD) doesnothaltgrowthofpopulation
• 90%PMDalongwith2high-riskobjectsremovedperyearslowsbutdoesnothaltgrowth
• 90%PMDcoupledwith5high-riskobjectsremovedperyearleadstoastableenvironment
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Source:J.C.Liou,2011
OrbitalMechanics[1]• Inordertoattainorbit,alargehorizontalvelocityisrequired
• DuetothecurvatureoftheEarth,thegroundwill“fallaway”fromtheobjectasitmovesfast
• Bymodifyingthisvelocity,theorbitcanbemodifiedaswell
6Source:S.M.Kanbur,2006
OrbitalMechanics[2]• AsthemassofthesatelliteisnegligiblecomparedtothatoftheEarth,thevelocityofacircularorbitwithanaltitudeR(inkilometers)isfoundby:
𝑉 =398,600𝑘𝑚
+
𝑠-6378𝑘𝑚+ 𝑅
• Example:circularorbitwithanaltitudeof2000km:
𝑉 =398,600𝑘𝑚
+
𝑠-8378𝑘𝑚 = 6.8976
𝑘𝑚𝑠
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OrbitalMechanics[3]
• Changeinvelocity:∆𝑉 = 𝑉4 − 𝑉-
• Counterangularvelocity:
6𝜏(𝑡) = −𝐼𝜔=>=?=@A
• Atmosphericdrag:
𝐹C =𝜌𝑉-𝐶C𝐴
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Agenda
• Background• ProblemStatement• DesignAlternatives• MethodofAnalysis• ResultsandRecommendations• BusinessCase
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UnitedStates
Russian
China Europe
(1)NationalGovernments (2)CivilOrganizations
NASA ESA
RFSA CNSA
IADC
(3)CommercialindustrySystem
ManufacturersTransportCompanies
InsuranceCompanies
XLCATLIN
STARR
SpaceX
ULA
OrbitalSciences
LockheedMartin
Boeing
Airbus
Spacecraftlaunchservices
Contracts Contracts
Research,collectdataandprovideoverallguidance
Financialissue
Tensions
Objectives
Politicalissue
StakeholderRelationships
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Spacecraftlaunchservices
Approvespacepolicy, andprovidefunding
ProblemStatement
• PostMissionDisposal(PMD)aloneisnotsufficienttocontroldebrisenvironment;remediationwillbenecessary.• Need:consensusonthebestremediationstrategyfororbitaldebris.
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GapAnalysis
Todatenoclearremediationsolutionprioritizationhasbeenperformedtoinclude
cost,effectiveness,andtechnologyreadinesslevel.
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NeedStatement
Remediationofatleast5high-riskobjectsperyearisrequiredtomaintain
asustainablespaceenvironment
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ProblemSummary
Problem:Debrisremediationmustoccur,butthecommunityisunsurehowtoproceed
Solution:Performacomprehensiveanalysisofremediationdesignalternatives
ExpectedResults:Provideafoundationofworkthatenhancescurrentcapabilitiesandcatalyzesthecommunitytooperationalizeremediationsolutions
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ScopeandAssumptions
• Orbitalplanechangesareincrediblyexpensiveintermsofdelta-Vcost
• Thegoalistominimizedelta-Vcost,andanystrategythatinvolvesplanechangeswillbevastlymoreexpensivethanthosewithoutplanechanges
• Therefore,orbitalinclinationscanbepre-selectedtohavethelowestdelta-Vcostsandthehighestmassderelicts
• Threehigh-densityinclinations:71°,74° and81°
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ADRMissionRequirements• MR.1TheADRsolutionshallfocusremediationeffortsinLEO(below2000km).
• MR.2TheADRsolutionshallselecthigh-riskobjectsasafunctionofmassandcollisionprobability.
• MR.3TheADRsolutionshallde-orbitatleast5high-riskdebrisobjectsperyearfor10years.
• MR.4TheADRsolutionshallreleasenomoreobjectsorvehiclesthanitrecovers.
• MR.5TheADRsolutionshallexecutede-orbitmaneuverwithin2monthsofend-of-life.
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ADRFunctionalRequirements
• FR.1TheADRsolutionshallbeabletomaneuverthroughoutLEO(upto2000km).
• FR.2TheADRsolutionshallbeabletoengagewithdebrisupto8300kg(drymassofSL-16).
• FR.3TheADRsolutionshallbeabletoremovedebrisobjectsfromorbit.
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Agenda
• Background• ProblemStatement• DesignAlternatives• MethodofAnalysis• ResultsandRecommendations• BusinessCase
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SystemIntegration
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Satelliteowners,operators,
etc.
DebrisRemediation
System
Politicalviabilityandapproval
Insure&Register(OrbitCoordinates)
Runanalysis
Confirm(Location,Time,andTarget)
ManufactureselectedADRdesign(s)
ADRManufacturer
Deploy(Location,Time,andTarget)
insurance&UNregistry
LaunchProviders
Dispose
SatelliteServicesUsers
SpaceDebris
$
$
$
$
$Service
Service
Service
Populationreduction
Risk
Nationalgovernment
Commercial industry
Civilorganizations
OverviewofActiveDebrisRemoval
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ActiveDebrisRemoval(ADR)ConceptofOperations:1. Identifyandlaunchtowardsthetargetobject2. Maneuverandrendezvouswithtarget3. Grapplewithtarget4. De-tumbletarget,ifnecessary5. De-orbittheobjectfromorbit
DesignAlternatives
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CONOPSStep: DesignAlternatives:1.Launch ChemicalPropulsion
2.Rendezvous ElectricPropulsionChemicalPropulsion
3.Grapple
RoboticArmThrowNetHarpoonCOBRAIRIDES
4.De-tumble ElectricPropulsionChemicalPropulsion
5. De-orbit
EDDEInflatablesElectricPropulsionChemicalPropulsionElectromagnetic
1.Launchand2.RendezvousDesigns
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Name: Stage: Mass(kg): CosttoLEO($/kg):
DeltaIV 1 6,747 $13,0722 301
AtlasV 1 5,479 $13,1822 166
Falcon9 1 418,100 $4,1092 96,570
DeltaIV AtlasV
Source:ULA
3.GrappleDesigns
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Name: TRL: Mass(kg): TargetMass(kg):RoboticArm 6 80 7000ThrowNet 5 60 10000Harpoon 4 9.3 9000COBRAIRIDES 3 140 150EDDE 2 76 8300
RoboticArm ThrowNet
Harpoon
Source:ESA
5.De-orbitDesigns
Name: Description: Mass(kg):EDDE System ofelectrodynamic tethers 80Inflatables Add foamtodebristoincreasesurface area 1000Propulsion Modify the altitude 314
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EDDE InflatablesSource:Star-TechInc. Source:ESA
Agenda
• Background• ProblemStatement• DesignAlternatives• MethodofAnalysis• ResultsandRecommendations• BusinessCase
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1.Launchand2.Rendezvous
• 𝑋 𝑡 =
0 𝑥4-(𝑡)𝑥-4(𝑡) 0 ⋯ 𝑥4>(𝑡)
⋮ ⋱ ⋮𝑥M4(𝑡) ⋯ 0
• 𝑥=N 𝑡 = ∆𝑉 = 𝑉= − 𝑉N• ConvertTLEdatatostatevectors• Thesematricesvaryovertime
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3.Grapple• Metrics:
– Mass– Altitude– Rotation
• Output:– 𝑂𝑅𝑆= 𝑋 = 𝑚𝑎𝑠𝑠= 𝑋 +𝑎𝑙𝑡= 𝑋 + 𝑟𝑜𝑡= 𝑋
– 𝑋 isadebrisobjectand𝑖 isangrapplingdesign
• LinearDecreasing:– 𝑚𝑎𝑠𝑠= 𝑋 = 1 − W@XYZ
W@XYW=>where𝑀𝑎𝑥 and𝑀𝑖𝑛aretheboundaryvalues
– Usedwithmass:masshaslineareffectonenergy
• ExponentialDecreasing:– 𝑎𝑙𝑡= 𝑋 ,𝑟𝑜𝑡= 𝑋 = 𝑒Y^Z
where1/𝜆 isthemeanvalue
– Usedwithaltitudeandrotation:velocityhassquaredeffectonenergy
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4.De-tumble
• Debriswillceaserotationwhen:𝜔a=>@A = 0
𝛼 =𝜔a=>@A − 𝜔=>=?=@A
𝑡 ,6𝜏(𝑡) = 𝐼𝛼
6𝜏(𝑡) = 𝐼(𝜔a=>@A − 𝜔=>=?=@A)
6𝜏(𝑡) = −𝐼𝜔=>=?=@A
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5.De-orbit
• Timetode-orbitdecreasesas𝐹C isincreases
𝐹C =𝜌𝑉-𝐶C𝐴
2• 𝜌 = 𝜌c𝑒YdA?=?efg/h– 𝜌increasesasaltitudedecreases
• 𝑉 =+ij,kcclm
nop
k+qjrMsdA?=?efg
– 𝑉 increasesasaltitudedecreases
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Agenda
• Background• ProblemStatement• DesignAlternatives• MethodofAnalysis• ResultsandRecommendations• BusinessCase
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Results[1]
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ThrowNet Weight Value
Attributes
Performance 0.47 7.01545ObjectScores 0.86 8.1575Delta-VCost 0.14 0
Risk 0.19 2.128Safety 0.80 2.24Reliability 0.20 1.68
TRL 0.14 5PoliticalViability 0.20 2.154
Agreeability 0.86 1.65Verifiability 0.14 5.25
Utility 4.8312356
Harpoon Weight Likely
Attributes
Performance 0.47 8.3463ObjectScores 0.86 9.705Delta-VCost 0.14 0
Risk 0.19 1.52Safety 0.80 1.6Reliability 0.20 1.2
TRL 0.14 4PoliticalViability 0.20 0.735
Agreeability 0.86 0Verifiability 0.14 5.25
Utility 4.918349417
Results[2]
Design: Utility/Cost:
Throw Net 5.74
Harpoon 61.79
EDDE 0.45
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Design: Utility/Cost:
Inflatables 0.55
Propulsion 4.66
EDDE 0.45
Infl.+Prop. 1.20
Results[3]
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Design: Recommended: Cost:
Launch andRendezvous
Falcon9 $61.2M
Grapple Harpoon $7.96M
De-orbit Propulsion $40M
Total: $109.16M
Choosethehighestutilitypercostdesignfromeachstageandaggregateintoanoveralldebris
remediationsystem
Recommendations
• Somedesigns,includingEDDE,increaseinefficiencythelongertheyaredeployed
• FurtherresearchanddevelopmentisrequiredtobringelectromagneticdesignstoareasonableTRLforimplementation
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Agenda
• Background• ProblemStatement• DesignAlternatives• MethodofAnalysis• ResultsandRecommendations• BusinessCase
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MarketSize
• 385satelliteownersoperatingover1200satellites
• Thegoalistocapture36%ofthismarketoverthenext20years
• Pessimisticestimateof13%
• Optimisticestimateof99% 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CustomerBase
Pess.Customers Exp.Customers Opt.Customers
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CompetitorsandRoadblocks
• Nocurrentcompetitors• BusinessmodelreliesonregulatoryacceptanceoftheharpoonADRdesign
• Changesinthepoliticalatmospherehaveseriousimpactonthefeasibilityofimplementation
• TheTragedyoftheCommonsdecreasesincentiveforanysinglepurchaser
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BusinessModel
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SatelliteOperators
SatelliteServicesUsers
SatelliteServices
$
SpaceDebris
SafeSpace$
PopulationReduction
Risk
LaunchProviders
ADRManufacturer
Launches$
$
$ ADRComponents
CostsNon-recurring:• Designimprovement,testing,andfinalization:$7,500,000
over2yearsRecurring:• Salaries:5employeesat$75,000=$375,000• Overheadmodifierof2.0:$750,000• ADRdesignpurchase:~$270,000fortheharpoonfrom
Astrium Stevenage• Launchcost:325kilogramdesignat$4109/kg=$1,335,425
perlaunch• Maneuveringfuelcost:$1716-17,160• TotalCost:$1,337,141-$1,352,585
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SalesProfile
• Chargecostplus10%fee:$1,487,843• TotalMarketValue:385*$1,623,102=$572.8billion
• MarketShareValue:TMV*36%=$206.2billion• AnnualRevenue:MSV*2%=$4,124,302
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ReturnonInvestment
• Pessimistic10yearROI:– $6,567,652,88%
• Expected10yearROI:– $36,324,522,484%
• Optimistic10yearROI:– $125,595,132,1675%
• StockMarketover10years(5%annually):– $12,216,709,163%
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OurSolution
• Missioncontrolfordebrisremediationservices
• DeploymentofanADRdesignaccordingtospecificcustomerneeds
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IdentifyHigh-RiskOrbits
IdentifyHigh-RiskDebris
RemediateDebris
SafeSpace
DebrisRisk• Risk=ProbabilityxSeverity
– SpaceDebrisRisk=CollisionProbabilityxMass– Masshasaneffectondamagecausedandcreationofdebris
• Largenumberofsmallobjectsvssmallnumberoflargeobjects
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Source:D.McKnight,2009
GapAnalysisWithoutremediation,thenumberofobjectsandcollisionswillcontinueto
climb,evenwithoutadditionallaunches.
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Source:AAS,2010Source:J.C.Liou,2011