Desegregation and Black Dropout Rates
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Transcript of Desegregation and Black Dropout Rates
Desegregation and Black
Dropout Rates
By Jonathan Guryan
History of Desegregation
Plessy v. Ferguson (1896) Brown v. Board of Education (1954) stated
segregated schools were “inherently unequal”
Over next 30 years, schools implemented desegregation plans
Problem
What was the contribution of court-
ordered desegregation to this decline in dropout
rates?
Background
Previous Work
James S. Coleman (1966) concluded that disadvantaged black school children learn better in well integrated classrooms– Main study behind busing– Criticisms of statistical methodology
Robert Crain and Jack Strauss (1985) randomly offered chance to be bused to suburban school– More likely to work in white-collar, professional jobs 17
years later Michael A. Boozer et al (1992) found that black
students who go to high school with a higher fraction of black students complete less schooling and earn lower wages– Guryan aims to refine Boozer’s study
Desegregation Process
The 2nd Brown decision gave enforcement responsibilities to federal district courts on a case-by-case basis– Timing of integration varied at the school-district level
The 1964 Civil Rights Act allowed US Department of Justice to join suit in non-compliant school districts and prohibited aid for segregated schools
Green v. New Kent County (1968) forced schools to take positive actions to integrate schools instead of simply removing race-based attendance restrictions
Inter - and Intra - Regional Variation of Desegregation
Of 22 districts that desegregated in 1960’s, 7 were outside of the south
Similarly, of the 77 districts that desegregated in the 1970’s, 35 were outside of the south
Variation in timing of desegregation plans, not explained by regional differences
Effectiveness of Desegregation Plans
Effect of desegregation plans on racial composition of school districts– Did desegregation plans lead to more racial
integration?– Did integration happen immediately or over
the course of several years?– Did racial integration last for the ten years that
are relevant for the analysis
“White Flight”
Coleman (1975) suggested desegregation increased white migration out of cities
Later research found that white migration was not enough to fully offset desegregation plans– Welch and Light (1987) - desegregation from 60’s to
70’s decreased dissimilarity index by 20%– Rossell and Armor (1996) - net effect of 10% to 20%
increase in fraction of white students at black students’ schools
– Reber (2002) - immediate integration effects followed by gradual segregation; 2/3 of effects remain after 10 years
Measures of Racial Integration
Black exposure index - measures fraction of white students at typical black student’s school
Dissimilarity index - measures school-level integration (conditional on racial composition of the district)
Results
Role of Legal Precedent
Did civil rights groups focus on districts where desegregation would provide greatest benefit?– Is timing of desegregation a function of time-varying
determinants of student achievement?
Legal precedent played major role in where civil rights groups focused– Brought suit where they had the highest probability of
success
Therefore, to determine the effects of desegregation on dropout rates, must focus on controlling for characteristics that made legal victory more likely there (as opposed to providing most benefit)
Methods
Ways Desegregation Can Affect Black Dropout Rates
1. Reassignment of students affects the peers with which students attend school
2. Desegregation may move black students to better schools
3. Other effects of desegregation plans on black educational outcomes
Data is not available to separately identify these individualeffects. Therefore, the paper must look at the net effect of
desegregation
Other difficulties
There is difficulty differentiating between school integration and the factors that led to desegregation
Data sets are inadequate to estimate year-to-year changes in dropout rates– Too small– Dropout rates by race are not recorded
Data
Use Welch and Light (1987) data for segregated and desegregated school districts
Use census data from 1970 and 1980 to match individuals to school districts– Form consolidated county groups
Lie outside school district boundaries Are larger than school districts
Compare changes in black and white dropout rates in districts that desegregated in the 1970’s with districts that desegregated earlier or later (1960’s or 1980’s)
Difference-in-differences
D = an indicator that equals 1 if high school aged person is not enrolled in school
i = indexes individuals d = indexes decade of desegregation plan (1960’s, 70’s,
80’s) t = indexes time
Fixed Effect Model
X = vector of individual and district characteristics π = vector of coefficients that vary with t Tdt = equal 1 for observations in 1980 in districts
that desegregated in the 1970’s
T, X, , are independent of error term
Fixed Effect Model Assumptions
Assumption that the decade of desegregation isn’t correlated with…– Trends in the dropout rate– Error term is drawn from same
distribution over time Data from City and County Data
Book Similar between 1960 and 1970
Results
Basic Results
Basic Results for Blacks and Whites
How characteristics of desegregation plans effect student outcomes
Length of Exposure
Robustness
Migration
Migration
Census data only has information about migration into districts– Welch and Light (1987) and Rossell and Armor (1996)
show that desegregation plans led to increased speed of white migration out of districts
– Reber (2002) suggests white migration eliminated 1/3 of integration in 10 years
Guryan argues this is not a problem in this study because consolidated county groups incorporate suburban areas
No evidence that desegregation changed population of black students
Timing of Desegregation
Difference-in-difference estimates rely on assumption that without desegregation, black dropout rates would not have differed over the decade of integration
Evidence that this is true– Time-varying covariates that drive dropout rate
variation do not effect estimates substantially– Trends in white dropout rates are the same for
60’s, 70’s, and 80’s desegregators– Entire decline in black dropout rates occurs in
districts that integrated
Timing of Desegregation
IV Estimates
Conclusions
Results suggest desegregation plans led to a 2 to 3% decline in the black dropout rate and had little or no effect on the white dropout rate– Robust to controls for permanent district
characteristics Largest declines in districts that
experienced largest declines in racial segregation
Criticisms
Did migration have some effect? Is it possible that 80’s desegregating schools
could have greatest potential for improving black outcomes?– This would explain changes seen in dropout rate
estimates and invalidate study Why did desegregation effect black student
outcomes?– Exposure to white students could have been related to
more money, etc. Is dropout rate the most appropriate
measurement to evaluate the effect of desegregation?