Derivative & Risk Management
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Transcript of Derivative & Risk Management
1
INTRODUCTION TO DERIVATIVES
& RISK MANAGEMENT
…tool to manage Financial Risk
‘derivatives are something like electricity: dangerous if mishandled, but bearing the
potential to do good’------Arthur Leavitt
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What is a Derivative?
Derivative comes from the word “ to derive”
A derivative is a contract whose value is derived from the value of another asset called underlying asset
If the price of underlying asset/security changes the price of derivative security also changes.
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What is ‘Derivatives’? “A derivative can be defined as a financial instrument
whose value depends on (or derives from) the values of other, more basic underlying variables.” --John C. Hull
“A derivative is simply a financial instrument (or even more simply an agreement between two people) which has a value determined by the price of something else.”
-Robert L. McDonald
The Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 defines "derivatives" to include:
1. A security derived from a debt instrument, share, loan whether secured or unsecured, risk instrument, or contract for differences or any other form of security.
2. A contract which derives its value from the prices, or index of prices, of underlying securities.
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Derivative contd….
Derivative markets neither create nor destroy wealth - they provide a means to transfer risk
zero sum game in that one party’s gains are equal to another party’s losses
participants can choose the level of risk they wish to take on using derivatives
with this efficient allocation of risk, investors are willing to supply more funds to the financial markets, enables firms to raise capital at reasonable costs
Derivatives are powerful instruments - they typically contain a high degree of leverage, meaning that small price changes can lead to large gains and losses
this high degree of leverage makes them effective but also ‘dangerous’ when misused.
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Traded on exchange No compulsory physical trading of
underlying assets All transactions in derivatives take
place in future specific date Hedging Device-Reduces risk Derivatives has low transaction cost Derivatives are often leveraged, such
that a small movement in the underlying value can cause a large difference in the value of the derivative.
Features of Derivatives
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Why Derivatives ???
Speculate Hedge a portfolio of shares, bonds, foreign
currency. Undertake arbitrage- i.e. benefits from
mispricing. Engineer or structure desired positions.
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Need / Purpose of Derivatives
First; prices in an organised derivatives market reflect the perception of the market participants about the future level. The prices of derivatives converge with the prices of underlying at the expiration of the derivatives contract. Thus derivatives help in the discovery of the future as well as current prices
Second; the derivatives market helps to transfer risks from those who have an appetite for them.
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Need / Purpose of Derivatives Third; the derivatives, due to their inherent nature,
are linked to the underlying cash market. With the introduction of derivatives, the underlying market witnesses a higher trading volume. Because of participation by more players who, would not otherwise participate for lack of an arrangement to transfer risk.
Fourth; an important incidental benefit that flows from derivatives trading is that its act as a catalyst for new entrepreneurial activity.
Finally, derivatives markets help increase savings and investment in the long run. Transfer of risk enables market participants to expand their volume of activity.
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Role of Derivatives
Provide global diversification in financial instruments and currencies.
Help hedge against inflation and deflation.
Generate returns that are not correlated with more traditional investments.
Allow fast product innovation because new contracts can be introduced rapidly and can be tailored to the specific needs of any user
1-10Applications / Uses of Derivatives
Derivatives are used by investors for the following:
1. Provide leverage (or gearing), such that a small movement in the underlying value can cause a large difference in the value of the derivative
2. Speculate and make a profit if the value of the underlying asset moves the way they expect (e.g., moves in a given direction, stays in or out of a specified range, reaches a certain level)
3. Hedge risk in the underlying, by entering into a derivative contract whose value moves in the opposite direction to their underlying position and cancels part or all of it out
4. Obtain exposure to the underlying where it is not possible to trade in the underlying (e.g., weather derivatives)
5. Create option ability where the value of the derivative is linked to a specific condition or event (e.g. the underlying reaching a specific price level)
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The Derivative World
ExchangeTraded
OTCStructuredEmbedded
FuturesOptions
ForwardsOptionsSwaps
Securitization
Bonds plusWarrants &
Options
Interest RateCurrencyEquity
Commodity
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Categorization / Types of Derivatives
Derivatives are usually broadly categorized by the: Relationship between the underlying and the derivative
(e.g., forward, option, swap) type of underlying (e.g., equity derivatives, foreign
exchange derivatives, interest rate derivatives, commodity derivatives or credit derivatives)
market in which they trade (e.g., exchange-traded or over-the-counter)
pay-off profile (Some derivatives have non-linear payoff diagrams due to embedded optionality)
There is no definitive rule for distinguishing one from the other, so the distinction is mostly a matter of custom.
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Derivative Market
Two types of Derivative Market namely;
Exchange-Traded Derivatives
Over-the-Counter(OTC) Market
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Exchange-Traded Derivatives
Exchange traded derivatives contract (ETD) are those derivatives instruments that are traded via specialized Derivatives exchange or other exchanges.
A derivatives exchange is a market where individuals trade standardized contracts that have been standardized by the exchange. It could increase the liquidity of the derivatives.
The world's largest derivatives exchanges (by number of transactions) are the Korea Exchange.
There is a very visible and transparent market price for the derivatives.
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Over-the-Counter Market
Over-the-counter (OTC) or off-exchange trading is to trade financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, commodities or derivatives directly between two parties without going through an exchange or other intermediary.
The contract between the two parties are privately negotiated.
The contract can be tailor-made to the two parties’ liking.
Over-the-counter markets are uncontrolled, unregulated and have very few laws. Its more like a freefall.
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Over-the-Counter Exchange-TradedPrivate transaction Public price quote
Credit risk Limited credit risk due to clearing house
Wide range of structures and contract size
Standard contracts and size
Many currencies Major currencies
Any maturity Standard expiration dates
They are Unregulated They are Regulated
Exchange-Traded v/s Over-the-counter contracts
In India, two exchanges offer derivatives trading: the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
OTC derivative trading are considered as illegal in Indian Law.
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What is Financial Derivatives
The financial derivative is an asset whose value is derived from the value of some other asset(s) or derivatives, known as underlying asset(s).
Example:An orange juice can be considered as a derivative of
the oranges since its price can be derived from that of oranges.
An financial contract on selling 100 barrels of crude oil at $70/barrel in three months. (Forward or futures contract)
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Basic Financial Derivatives
Basic Financial Derivatives
Forward
Contract
Future
Contract
Options
Swaps
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1. Forward Contract
A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset on a specified date for a specified price.
One of the parties to the contract assumes a long position and agrees to buy the underlying asset on a certain specified future date, for a certain specified price.
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Contd….
A forward contract is a contractual agreement made directly between two parties, says A and B,
Party A (Long the forward contract/Long position) (Buyer of the forward contract):
He agrees to buy the underlying asset at certain future time (maturity date) for an agreed contractual price (forward price) (delivery price).
Party B (Short the forward contract/Short position) (Seller of the forward contract):
He agrees to sell the underlying asset at maturity date for the forward price.
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Contd….
The underlying asset of the forward contact can be commodities such as live cattle, oil and gold; or financial assets like bonds, currencies, stock indices and even derivatives.
Forward contract is traded in the OTC market.
The terminal payoff of a financial contract is defined as the payoff of the contract at its maturity date.
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Example: Forward Contract
I agree to sell 500kgs wheat at Rs.40/kg after 3
months.
Farmer Bread Maker
3 months Later
FarmerBread Maker
500kgs wheat
Rs.20,000
1-23Salient Features of Forward Contract They are bilateral contracts and hence, exposed
to counterparty risk. Each contract is customer designed, and hence is
unique in terms of contract size, expiration date and the asset type and quality.
The contract price is generally not available in public domain.
On the expiration date, the contract has to be settled by delivery of the asset.
In case, the party wishes to reverse the contract, it has to compulsorily go to the same counter party, which being in a monopoly situation can command the price it wants.
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Limitations of Forward Contract
1. Forward markets are afflicted by several problems:
2. Lack of centralization of trading,
3. Liquidity and Counterparty risk. The basic problem in the first two is that they
have too much flexibility and generality. Counterparty risk arises from the possibility of
default by any one party to the transaction. When one of the two sides to the transaction declares bankruptcy, the other suffers
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2. Future Contract
Future contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the future, at a certain price.
But unlike forward contract, futures contract are standardized and stock ex-changed traded.
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Contd….
The standardized items in a futures contract are:
1. Quantity of the underlying,
2. Quality of the underlying,
3. The date/month of delivery,
4. The units of price quotation and minimum price change and
5. Location of settlement.
1-27Salient Features of Future Contract
Futures markets are designed to solve the problems of trading, liquidity and counterparty risk. Basically, futures markets resemble the forward market
Three distinct features of the futures markets are:
- standardized contracts
- centralized trading
- Settlement through clearing houses to avoid counterparty risk.
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Future Contract Forward Contract
Operational Mechanism
Traded on an organized stock exchange
Over the Counter (OTC) in nature
Nature of the Flexibility
Standardized contract terms, hence, more liquid.
Customized contract terms, hence, less liquid
Margins Requires margin payments No margin payment
Settlement Follows daily settlement Settlement happens at the end of the period
Credit Risk Assumed by the exchange Credit risk depends upon counter party
Delivery Price
The delivery price is the spot price
The delivery price is the forward price
Regulation They are regulated Not Regulated
Distinction between Futures and Forward
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Pay off for Futures
A pay off is the likely profit/loss that would accrue to a market participant with change in the price of the underlying asset. Futures contracts have linear pay off.
Linear pay off:
“ losses as well as profits for both the buyer and the seller of futures are unlimited”
1-30Pay off for Buyer of Futures: (Long Future)
The pay offs for a person who buys a futures contract is similar to the pay off for a person who holds an asset. He has a potentially unlimited upside as well as downside.
e.g. Take the case of a speculator who sells a two month Nifty index futures contact when the Nifty stands at 1220. the underlying asset in this case is the nifty portfolio. When the index moves down the short futures position starts making profits and when the index moves up it starts making losses.
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3. Options
An option is the right, but not the obligation to buy or sell something on a specified date at a specified price.
In the securities market, an option is a contract between two parties to buy or sell specified number of shares at a later date for an agreed price.
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Contd….
There are three parties involved in the option trading, the option seller, buyer and the broker.
1. The option seller or writer is a person who grants someone else the option to buy or sell. He receives premium on its price.
2. The option buyer pays a price to the option writer to induce him to write the option.
3. The securities broker acts as an agent to find the option buyer and the seller, and receives a commission or fee for it.
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Option Classifications
Call Option : an option which gives a right to buy the underlying asset at a strike price.
Put Option : an option which gives a right to sell the underlying asset at strike price.
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Call Option Buying
A Call option buyer basically is bullish about the underlying stock.
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Call Option Example
Right to buy 100 Reliance shares at a price of Rs.300 per
share after 3 months.
CALL OPTION
Strike Price
Premium = Rs.25/share
Amt to buy Call option = Rs.2500
Current Price = Rs.250
Suppose after a month, Market price is Rs.400,
then the option is exercised i.e. the
shares are bought.Net gain = 40,000-
30,000- 2500 = Rs.7500
Suppose after a month, market price is Rs.200, then the option is not
exercised.Net Loss = Premium amt
= Rs.2500
Expiry
date
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Put Option buying
A buyer of put option is bearish on underlying stock.
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Put Option Example
Right to sell 100 Reliance shares
at a price of Rs.300 per share after 3 months.
PUT OPTION
Strike Price
Premium = Rs.25/share
Amt to buy Put option = Rs.2500
Current Price = Rs.250
Suppose after a month, Market price is Rs.200, then the option is exercised i.e. the shares are
sold.Net gain = 30,000-
20,000-2500 = Rs.7500
Suppose after a month, market price is Rs.300, then the option is not
exercised.Net Loss = Premium amt
= Rs.2500
Expiry
date
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Both the Call and Put option buyers are buying the rights, that is they are transferring their risks to the sellers of the option.
For this transfer of risk to the sellers, buyers have to compensate by paying Option Premium.
Option premium is also known as Price of the option, Cost or Value of the option.
Option Classifications contd….
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The other two types are – European style options and American style options.
European style options can be exercised only on the maturity date of the option, also known as the expiry date.
American style options can be exercised at any time before and on the expiry date.
Option Classifications contd….
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Difference between Futures and Options
FUTURES OPTIONS
Futures Contract is an agreement to buy or sell specified quantity of the underlying assets at a price agreed upon by the buyer and seller, on or before a specified time. Both the buyer and seller are obliged to buy/sell the underlying asset.
In options the buyer enjoys the right and not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset.
Unlimited upside and downside for both buyer and seller
Limited downside (to the extent of premium paid) for buyer and unlimited upside. For seller (writer) of the option, profits are limited whereas losses can be unlimited.
Futures contracts prices are affected mainly by the prices of the underlying asset.
Prices of options are however, affected by (a) prices of the underlying asset, b) time remaining for expiry of the contact and c) volatility of the underlying asset.
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4. Swaps
Swaps are contracts to exchange cash (flows) on or before a specified future date based on the underlying value of currencies/exchange rates, bonds/interest rates, commodities, stocks or other assets.
More complex derivatives can be created by combining the elements of these basic types. For example, the holder of a swaption has the right, but not the obligation, to enter into a swap on or before a specified future date.
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Commonly used Swaps
The two commonly used swaps are :
Interest rate swaps: These entail swapping only the interest related cash flows between the parties in the same currency.
Currency swaps: These entail swapping both principal and interest between the parties, with the cash flows in one direction being in a different currency than those in the opposite direction.
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Traders in Derivative Market
Hedgers: They are the players whose objective is risk reduction.
Speculators: They are the players who establish positions based on their expectations of future price movements.
Arbitrageurs: They are the players whose objective is to profit from pricing differentials/mispricing.
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A) Hedgers
The hedgers can use the derivatives to reduce their risk on the unfavorable movement of market variables such as exchange rates and commodity prices.
Example
Suppose ABC Airline Co. knows that it will have to buy on 31 Dec 2011 (date T) 1 million tons of fuel. To hedge against the possible increase in fuel price between today and T, they could
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Hedgers contd…..
long forward contracts with maturity T:
They can lock the fuel price at T with the delivery price (K) of the forward contracts at zero cost today.
long European call option with strike K and maturity T:
If the fuel price at T is higher than K, they can exercise the option to buy the fuel at K. Otherwise, they can buy the fuel from the market at a price lower than K and without exercising the option. In this case, they has to pay the option premium (> 0) today.
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Hedgers contd…..
In summary, forward contracts are designed to neutralize the
risk by fixing price. By contrast, option contracts offer a way for
investors to protect themselves against adverse price movements in the future while still allowing them to benefit from favorable price movements.
Unlike forwards, options involve the payment of an upfront fee.
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B) Speculators
The speculator wishes gain profit from taking the market movement. Either they are betting that the price of the asset will go up or go down.
The financial derivatives allow them to create the speculative position in a much lower cost than by actually trading the underlying asset. This is called leverage.
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Speculators contd….
Example
Today’s price of HSBC: $70 per share
Option price of a 1-month European call option on 1 share of HSBC with strike price $70: $0.5
Initial investment cost: $1,400
To bet on the price of HSBC will risk above $70 one month later.
Strategy 1: Holding stock: 20 shares
Strategy 2: Holding option: 2,800 option contracts
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Speculators contd….
At the end of 1 month:
Stock price = $71
Strategy 1:
Profit from holding stock = (7170)×20=$20.
Strategy 2:
Profit from holding options
= (7170)×2800 – 1400 =$1,400 (70 times of Strategy 1)
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Speculators contd….
At the end of 1 month:
Stock price = $69
Strategy 1:
Loss from holding stock = (7069)×20=$20.
Strategy 2:
Loss from holding options
=$1,400 (70 times of Strategy 1)
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C) Arbitrageurs
An arbitrage is a deal that produces risk-free profit by exploiting a mispricing in the market.
An arbitrageur can purchase an asset cheaply in one location and simultaneously sell it in another at a higher price.
The arbitrage opportunities cannot last for long.
More complicated arbitrage trading strategies can be created from financial derivatives.
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Arbitrageurs contd….
Example
Suppose that China Mobile is traded in China and Hong Kong markets, its price in China and Hong Kong are RMB$120 and HK$130 respectively. We further suppose that the specifications of the share of China Mobile are identical in both markets and the exchange rate (HK/RMB) is 1.1.
In China market: stock price = RMB$120×1.1=HK$132.
In Hong Kong market: stock price = HK$130.
An arbitrageurs could simultaneously buy 100 shares of China Mobile in Hong Kong and sell in China to obtain risk-free profit of
100×(132 – 130) = HK$200. (assume no transaction cost)
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Increased volatility. Exchange rates became floating Active control of interest rates Commodity prices
Increased integration with the international markets.
Development of more sophisticated risk management tools.
Factors Contributing to the Growth of Derivatives
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Globalization Revenues in different currencies Operating Costs in different currencies Liabilities in different currencies
Technological advances Level of computerization Modeling abilities
Regulatory changes
Changes in transactions costs
Factors Contributing to the Growth of Derivatives
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Advantages of Derivative Market
1. Diversion of speculative instinct form the cash market to the derivatives.
2. Increased hedge for investors in cash market.
3. Reduced risk of holding underlying assets.
4. Lower transactions costs.
5. Enhance price discovery process.
6. Increase liquidity for investors and growth of savings flowing into these markets.
7. It increase the volume of transactions.
1-56Disadvantages of Derivative Market
1. Credit Risk/Large notional Value
2. Crimes
3. Interest rate
4. Leverage of economy’s Debt
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The Dark Side of Derivatives
Six examples will be used to illustrate some of the perils, especially ethical perils, in use of financial derivatives: Equity Funding Corporation of America
(1973) Baring Bank (1994) Orange County, California (1994) Long Term Capital Management (1998) Enron (2001) Global Crossing (2002)
Each of them represented an effort to use financial derivatives to produce inflated returns. Two cases were proven to be frauds. Two appear to have been innocent of fraud. Two are still to be seen.
Each was a major financial catastrophe, affecting not only those directly involved but the world at large.
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Criticism of Derivatives
Speculation Comparison to gambling : Derivatives are often
seen as legalized gambling. This is an unfair criticism since derivatives have the benefit of making financial markets work better and provide a means for people to manage risk, whereas it is difficult to argue that gambling improves society as a whole.
Sophistication - potential for huge gains and huge losses, appropriate for only sophisticated investors with a high tolerance for risk.
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Criticism of Derivatives contd…..
Lifespan - as each day passes and the expiration date approaches, more and more "time" premium lose and the option's value decreases.
Direction and market timing - investors must accurately predict the direction in which the market or index will move during a set period of time. A mistake here almost guarantees a substantial investment loss.
Costs - The bid/ask spreads of more common derivatives such as options can be daunting.
Inappropriate use
1-60What are myths behind derivatives?
Derivatives increase speculation and do not serve any economic purpose
Indian Market is not ready for derivative trading
Disasters prove that derivatives are very risky and highly leveraged instruments.
Derivatives are complex and exotic instruments that Indian investors will find difficulty in understanding
Is the existing capital market safer than Derivatives?
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History of Derivatives
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for derivatives trading, became functional in 1848 and by 1865 futures contract in commodities started trading.
In United Kingdom the Call and Put Option trading were introduced in the London Stock Exchange in 1920.
In 1972 the Chicago Mercantile Exchange allowed currency futures, followed by equity options in 1973.
Year 1975 saw introduction to Interest Rate futures on the CBOT.
Currency Swaps were introduced in 1981 and in 1982 Index futures, Interest Rate swaps and Currency Options were started.
In 1983, Index Options and Options on futures were started.
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Worldwide derivatives market
The derivatives market is mostly made up of derivatives based on: Interest rates: ( ~65% of the
market). Currencies: (~25%). Options
and swaps on foreign exchange. Equity: (~5-10%). Index futures,
Index swaps, etc. Commodities: (~0-5%).
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Derivatives in India
In India, derivatives markets have been functioning since the nineteenth century with organized trading in cotton through the establishment of the Cotton Trade Association in 1875.
Derivatives, as exchange traded financial instruments were introduced in India in June 2000. (Nifty 50 index futures contract)
First to be traded were futures contract on Index. After this came, options on individual securities and index Futures contract on individual stocks were launched in
November,2001 In 1999, the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act of 1956, or
SC(R)A, was amended so that derivatives could be declared as “securities”.
The Act considers derivatives on equities to be legal and valid, but only if they are traded on exchanges.
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Derivatives in India contd…..
Derivatives trading commenced in India in June 2000 after SEBI granted the final approval to this effect in May 2000 on the recommendation of L. C Gupta committee.
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) permitted the derivative segments of two stock exchanges, NSE and BSE, and their clearing house/corporation to commence trading and settlement in approved derivatives contracts.
Trading in index options commenced in June 2001, options on individual securities in July 2001 and Futures on individual stocks in November 2001.
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Milestones in the development of Indian Derivative Market
December 14, 1995 NSE asked SEBI for permission to trade index futures.November 18, 1996 L.C. Gupta Committee set up to draft a policy framework for introducing derivativesMay 11, 1998 L.C. Gupta committee submits its report on the policy
framework
July 7, 1999 RBI gave permission for OTC forward rate agreements (FRAs) and interest rate swaps.
May 25, 2000 SEBI allows exchanges to trade in index futuresJune 12, 2000 Trading on Nifty futures commences on the NSEJune 4, 2001 Trading for Nifty options commences on the NSEJuly 2, 2001 Trading on Stock options commences on the NSENovember 9, 2001 Trading on Stock futures commences on the NSEAugust 29, 2008 Currency derivatives trading commences on the NSEAugust 31, 2009 Interest rate derivatives trading commences on the NSEFebruary 2010 Launch of Currency Futures on additional currency pairsOctober 28, 2010 Introduction of European style Stock OptionsOctober 29, 2010 Introduction of Currency Options
FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING IN INDIA
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Products on NSE
Index futures and options on 6 indices: S&P CNX Nifty S&P Nifty Junior CNX IT CNX 100 Bank Nifty Nifty Midcap 50
Futures and Options on individual securities (189 securities)
Interest Rate Derivatives
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Futures and Options on index
S&P CNX Nifty is a well diversified 50 stock index.
CNX Nifty Junior is an index based on 50 stocks.
CNX 100 is an index based on 100 stocks.
CNX Bank Index is an index comprised of the 12 most liquid and large capitalized Indian Banking stocks.
CNX IT Index is an index based on 20 stocks of the IT sector.
1-70Futures and Options on Individual Securities
The futures and options contracts are available on 189 securities stipulated by the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI).
As per SEBI guidelines the stock shall be chosen from amongst the top 500 stocks in terms of average daily market capitalization and average daily traded value in the previous six months on a rolling basis.
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Trading Cycle
3 month trading cycle - the near month (one), the next month (two) and the far month (three)
Expiry day- Last Thursday of the expiry month. If the last Thursday is a trading holiday, then the expiry day is the previous trading day.
On expiry of the near month contract, new contracts are introduced on the trading day following the expiry of the near month contract. The new contracts are introduced for three month duration.
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Options contracts
The options contracts on index are European style and cash settled.
Option contracts on individual securities are American style and cash settled.
1-73
Future of Derivatives Market in India
Future of Indian derivatives market is bright because: SEBI allowed stock exchanges to offer incentives to
brokers for generating volumes in illiquid securities in equity derivatives segment.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) has added 135 stocks to its futures and options segment from August 2011
In only 11 years Indian moves to fifth largest derivatives exchange in the world
India has the highest no. of listed companies on exchanges as compared to the other exchanges of the world.
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THANK YOU