Alice M. Grimm Marcia T. Zilli Federal University of Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Universidade Federal do Paraná Curitiba, Paraná
description
Transcript of Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Universidade Federal do Paraná Curitiba, Paraná
Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversidade Federal do Paraná
Curitiba, ParanáBrasil
Alexandre Guetter
Streamflow Prediction Validation with the Application of Large Basin Rainfall-Runoff
Model
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Overview of the Brazilian Hydropower System
• Total annual power production: 445 TWh
• Annual rate of increase: 6%
• State-run companies: 90%
• Demand:
Hydropower (>30 MW): 72.6%
Hydropower (<30MW): 1.7%
Thermal: 14.7%
Nuclear: 2.5%
Import: 8.5%
Brazil
World
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Overview of the Brazilian Hydropower System
• Electricity Demand per Sector:
Industrial: 47%
Residential: 22%
Services: 14%
Other: 17%
• Hourly Demand Curve
Peak at 6 pm (residential)
Base: hydro+thermal
Peak: hydro
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Power production Integrated System
NO- North
NE-Northeasten
SE – Southeast/ Midwest
SU - Southern
• Different regional climates grouped on a continental scale
• Installed Capacity
Southeastern/Midwest: 63%
Southern: 17%
Northeastern: 14%
Northern: 6%
• Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting Skill
Adequate: SU-NE-NO
Low: SE
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Hydropower Integrated System
SE63%
SU17%
NE14%
NO6%
Capacidade instaladaCapacidade instalada
SE68%
SU6%
NE21%
NO5%
Energia armazenada máximaEnergia armazenada máxima
Installed Capacity
Energy Storage
• Well-defined rainy season
Southeastern/Midwest: SON-DJF
Northeastern: FMAM (largest storage)
• Quasi-uniform rainfall
Southern (smallest storage)
• What do we want to predict:
Southeastern: in August if SON will have little rainfall – energy production
Southeastern: in November if DJF will be very rainy – flood control
Northeastern: in January if FMAM will have little rainfall
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
The size of our problem:
NO- North
NE-Northeasten
SE – Southeast/ Midwest
SU - Southern
• About 60 large hydropower stations: require seasonal streamflow prediction
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Pilot Study: Streamflow Prediction Validation• 20 prediction points in 11 large basins
• 9 basins with 2 points: the most upstream/downstream hydroplants
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Pilot Study: Activities
• Naturalized streamflow analysis (1931-2007)
• Diagnostic study of the association between high/low flows and SST anomalies (what is the climate model skill for such forcings?)
• Data collection: raingauge mean-areal rainfall (variable period)
• Large-scale rainfall-runoff model calibration
• Streamflow assimilation: hydrologic model state updating
• Validation study: use monthly precipitation forecast as input data for the state-updated rainfall-runoff model (1981-2005)
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Naturalized Streamflow Analysis – Iguaçu River
IGUAÇU - FOZ DO AREIA - ANNUAL CYCLE8
48
11
08
98
1
70
0
12
80
13
34
13
34
11
26
15
03
13
95
10
48
83
9
26
8
30
3
31
3
24
1
18
0 24
0
22
3
17
6 23
8 33
7
27
9
21
5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
I
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
MÊS
ST
RE
AM
FL
OW
(m
3 /s)
AVERAGE
85%
15%
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Naturalized Streamflow Analysis – Iguaçu River
IGUAÇU - FOZ DO AREIA - ANNUAL CYCLE
84
8
11
08
98
1
70
0
12
80
13
34
13
34
11
26
15
03
13
95
10
48
83
9
26
8
30
3
31
3
24
1
18
0 24
0
22
3
17
6 23
8 33
7
27
9
21
5
0
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400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
I
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
MÊSS
TR
EA
MF
LO
W (
m3 /s
)
AVERAGE
85%
15%
0
5
6
7 7
6 6
3
6
3
1 1
0 0 0
2
1 1 1
2
0
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1
0 0 00
2
4
6
8
10
12
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100
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STREAMFLOW (m3/s)
NO
. OF
CA
SE
S (
TO
T=
60
)
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
High Flows and SST anomalies – Iguaçu River
High Flows Low Flows
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
High Flows and SST anomalies – Iguaçu River
High Flows Low Flows
ENSO
SouthernAtlantic Run Updated
Hydrologic Model
Ensemble StreamflowForecast
Select Precipitation Data from Historic Record Associated with
Forecast Climate Category
DynamicModelForecast
Streamflow Forecasting Using Either Resampled or Predicted Rainfall
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Rainfall – Runoff Model
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Rainfall-Runoff Model With State-Updating
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Rainfall-Runoff Model With State-Updating
Hydrologic Model State Updating
αu e αp : fatores de ponderação, a calibrar
U : covariance matrix of input errors
W : covariance errors of model parameters
M(t) : input data sensitivity matrix
N(t) : model parameter sensitivity matrix
)t(NW)t(N)t(MU)t(MQ Tp
Tu
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Streamflow Prediction Using Resampled Rainfall
IGUAÇU - FOZ DO AREIA - PREVISÃO: MAR/200540
5
274
206 26
8 397
569
388
404 44
9
851
772
622
542
498
716
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
DE
C(i
-1)
JAN
(i)
FE
B(i
)
MA
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)
AP
R(i
)
MA
I(i)
JUN
(i)
JUL
(i)
AU
G(i
)
SE
P(i
)
OC
T(i
)
NO
V(i
)
DE
C(i
)
JAN
(i+
1)
FE
B(i
+1
)
MÊS
VA
ZÃ
O IN
CR
EM
EN
TA
L (
m3/s
)
CLIMATOLOGY
85%
15%
AVE-ENSEMBLE
MONITORAMENTO PREVISÃO
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
oct
nov
dec
jan
feb
mar apr
may jun jul
aug
sep
Str
eam
flo
w (
cfs)
* This results are not for the Iguaçu BasinHighest Simulation (1981-2005)
Lowest Simulation (1981-2005)
ForecastEnsemble
Streamflow Prediction Using Climate Model RainfallStreamflow Prediction Using Resampled Rainfall
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009
Conclusions and Recommendations
• The diagnostic study of the relationship between high/low flows and SST anomalies was accomplished in year-1;
• The collection of raingauge precipitation data and the rainfall-runoff model calibration was accomplished in year-2;
• The streamflow prediction validation using seasonal rainfall prediction has not been completed yet;
• The sensitivity analysis of energy production to rainfall prediction skill is a task for year-3;
• Selection of period and basin for joint papers.