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    Lake Travis I.S.D.

    Demographic Update

    March 8, 2011

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    Firm OverviewDemographic Approach for L.T.I.S.D.L.T.I.S.D. Student Trends

    Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per Household

    Current Student CharacteristicsProjected Enrollment by Planning UnitLong Range Planning

    Population & Survey Analysts

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    Aldine I.S.D.Allen I.S.D.Anahuac I.S.D.Angleton I.S.D.Bryan I.S.D.

    Carroll I.S.D.Conroe I.S.D.Crosby I.S.D.Dallas I.S.D.Dayton I.S.D.

    DeSoto I.S.D.Elgin I.S.D.Frisco I.S.D.

    Galveston I.S.D.Goose Creek C.I.S.D.Hallsville I.S.D.Highland Park I.S.D.Humble I.S.D.

    Klein I.S.D.Judson I.S.D.Lake Travis I.S.D.Lamar C.I.S.D.Leander I.S.D.

    Lovejoy I.S.D.Manor I.S.D.Marshall I.S.D.Mansfield I.S.D.

    Midway I.S.D.Montgomery I.S.D.Needville I.S.D.New Caney I.S.D.Northwest I.S.D.

    Pearland I.S.D.Richardson I.S.D.Splendora I.S.D.Spring I.S.D.Spring Hill I.S.D.

    Temple I.S.D.Tyler I.S.D.Waxahachie I.S.D.White House I.S.D.

    Recent Clients (2009-2011)

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    Primary vs. SecondaryData Sources

    Secondary Data:

    State Data Center, Capital Area COG (CAPCOG),

    and many others use extrapolation methods

    Primary Data:

    PASA studies the following:

    Leading Indicators of Employment

    Housing Starts and Planning Housing Occupancies

    Ratios of Students per Occupied Home

    Assessment of Regeneration/Decline for Subdivisions

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    Firm OverviewDemographic Approach for L.T.I.S.D.L.T.I.S.D. Demographic Trends

    Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdCurrent Student Population CharacteristicsProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

    Population & Survey Analysts

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    Generate Updated ArcGIS Map Layers

    Geo-Code Every Student

    Analyze Student Population Characteristics byPlanning Unit (ethnicity, econ. disadvantaged)

    Analyze Recent Changes in Student Populationby Subdivision, Apartment -- and Planning Unit(i.e., Student Decline and Regeneration)

    Section A:Assess Current Student Population

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    Section B:Project Future Student Enrollment

    Prepare Projections of New Housing per Yearper Subdivision & Apartment

    Calculate the Ratio of Students per Householdfor All Current Subdivisions and Apartmentsand Assess Trends in Ratios

    Prepare Leading Indicators of Employment

    Generate Projections of Student Populationby Planning Unit for Ten-Year Projection Period

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    Relate Student Projections to Current FacilityCapacities

    Develop Long-Range Plan for the Siting andTiming of New Facilities

    Options for New Attendance Zones

    Real-Time Planning w/Boundary Committees

    Prepare Comprehensive Report and PresentFindings to School Board

    Section C:Long Range Planning

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    Firm OverviewDemographic Approach for L.T.I.S.D.L.T.I.S.D. Student Trends

    Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per Household

    Current Student Population CharacteristicsProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

    Population & Survey Analysts

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    Total Enrollment

    (Pre-PEIMS)4th Week Survey,2010-11

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    Percent Change

    In StudentEnrollmentFall 2009-10

    to

    Fall 2010-11

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    Percent Change

    In StudentEnrollmentFall 2005-06

    to

    Fall 2010-11

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    Absolute Change

    In StudentEnrollmentFall 2009-10

    to

    Fall 2010-11

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    Absolute Change

    In StudentEnrollmentFall 2005-06

    to

    Fall 2010-11

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    Rank District Name

    Total

    Enrollment

    Economically

    Disadvantaged

    Percent

    Disadvantaged1 Highland Park ISD 6,448 0 0.0%

    2 Carroll ISD 7,745 134 1.7%

    3 Eanes ISD 7,498 191 2.5%

    4 Friendswood ISD 5,970 371 6.2%

    5 Coppell ISD 9,982 967 9.7%

    6 Frisco ISD 33,973 4,313 12.7%

    7 Lake Travis ISD 6,577 935 14.2%8 Allen ISD 18,242 2,895 15.9%

    9 Grapevine-Colleyville I 13,671 2,465 18.0%

    10 Keller ISD 31,569 5,834 18.5%

    Economically Disadvantaged Student Population: 2009-10

    * Of 170 Districts with 5,000 or more students

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    Percent ofStudents

    Meeting 2010TAKS

    Standards

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    Rank District Name

    Total

    Enrollment 2010 2009 2008 2007 20061 Highland Park ISD 6,448 98% 99% 98% 96% 97%

    2 Carroll ISD 7,745 97% 95% 94% 94% 93%

    3 Eanes ISD 7,496 96% 95% 94% 93% 92%

    4Lake Travis ISD

    6,57794% 91% 90% 90% 87%5 Coppell ISD 9,982 94% 93% 93% 93% 91%

    6 Friendswood ISD 5,970 93% 93% 92% 91% 89%

    7 Allen ISD 18,242 93% 91% 90% 87% 87%

    8 Frisco ISD 33,973 91% 92% 89% 87% 85%

    9 Boerne ISD 6,392 90% 92% 89% 85% 88%10 Montgomery ISD 6,714 90% 86% 88% 87% 85%

    TAKS Passage Rate Spring 2010

    * Of 170 Districts with 5,000 or more students

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    KindergartenStudents

    as a Percent

    of TotalEnrollment

    Fall 2009

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    Comparison of 1st and 5th Gradeby Attendance Zone

    Yellow = DeclineGreen = Growth

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    Kindergarten Compared to Births

    in L.T.I.S.D.

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    Oct 2009% Chg 09-10 /

    08-09 Oct 2010% Chg 10-11 /

    09-10

    EE/PK 85 N/A 104 22.35%

    KN 481 5.48% 506 5.20%

    1 488 4.27% 507 3.89%

    2 497 5.07% 514 3.42%

    3 495 -2.17% 515 4.04%

    4 549 12.50% 539 -1.82%

    5 519 13.82% 561 8.09%6 487 1.04% 541 11.09%

    7 510 7.82% 521 2.16%

    8 510 8.74% 551 8.04%

    9 539 0.75% 573 6.31%

    10 538 10.93% 542 0.74%

    11 460 5.50% 519 12.83%

    12 419 6.08% 447 6.68%

    Total 6,577 7.05% 6,940 5.52%

    Historical

    GrowthTrends

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    Private Schools

    School GradesCurrent

    Enrollment

    Estimated

    KN +

    Studentsfrom LTISD

    Enrollmentin 5 years

    KN +

    Students

    from LTISDin 5 years

    Abercorn International 2yr - 6t h 22 8 95 34Austin Montessori P K - 9 yr 325 9 345 9Austin Waldorf K - 12th 405 5 415 5Bluebonnet Montessori P K - 4 th 70 15 80 17Cedars Montessori P K - 6 163 3 170 3

    Cypress Creek Montessori 2yr - P K 62 0 100 0Dripping Springs Christian Academy K - 8th 20 0 40 0Hill Country Christian School of Austin P K - 12th 465 2 550 2Lago Vista Academy Inf - 2nd 40 0 80 0Lake Hills Montessori Inf - K 66 0 90 0Lake Hills Montessori Bee Cave Inf - 4 th 115 22 100 19Primrose School of Bee Cave Inf - K

    175 9 190 27Regent School of Austin K - 12th 860 35 880 36St. Gabriel's Catholic School P K - 8 th 369 23 375 23St. Michael's Catholic Academy 9t h - 12t h 420 25 450 27St. Stephens Episcopal School 6t h - 12t h 660 7 680 7Trinity Episcopal School K - 8th 417 36 525 63

    TOTAL 4,632 191 5,070 2402.70% 2.50% Percentage of MISD residents in private schools:

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    Population & Survey Analysts

    Demographic Characteristics ofL.T.I.S.D.

    Employment Trends

    Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdTrends in Student PopulationProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

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    Annual Employment Trends

    December June December 6-Month Annual

    2009 2010 2010 Change Change

    City of Austin

    Employment 406,068 402,620 403,615 -0.85% -0.60%Unemployment Rate 6.2 6.9 6.3

    Travis County

    Employment 527,234 525,438 526,736 -0.34% -0.09%Unemployment Rate 6.6 7.2 6.6

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    L.T.I.S.D., Metro, & State Employment Trends

    L.T.I.S.D. Gained ~20% employment in 3 yrs.

    (American Community Survey) L.T.I.S.D.Potential for new normal due to

    Prolonged higher unemployment Lack of immigration National debt

    L.T.I.S.D. The new hospital (Ph. I & Ph. II) will yield ~2,618 jobsplus associated employment impacts = 3 times that number.(Developers suggest Ph. I & Ph. II will have $172 million directimpact and $222 million total impact)

    L.T.I.S.D. only10% are employed in Government

    Manor I.S.D. (24%) Austin I.S.D. (17%)Hays C.I.S.D. (20%) Eanes I.S.D. (13%)

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    L.T.I.S.D., Metro, & StateEmployment Trends

    Austin Metro Area As of Dec., 2010, Austin has been labeled bymany economists as the healthiest metro area in regard to new

    job formation.

    Austin Metro AreaMoodys Economy (Ed Friedman) suggeststhat Austin has the best fundamentals in the U.S. such asstrong population growth and a well-educated base.

    Austin Metro Area The local economy has grown more than

    any of the largest 100 American metro areas during a periodwhen 95% of these metro economies contracted (BrookingsInstitution).

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    L.T.I.S.D., Metro, & StateEmployment Trends

    Texas Leading in job formations & leading in recovery

    Texas High-tech industries are leading us out of therecession in terms of overall exports from the State

    Texas 3rdto 4thyear of a recovery cycle that took 8-11years(for recovery in the late 1980s & early 1990s downturn)

    Texas Up to 48% of metro jobs (prior to 2007) = were related toconstruction prior to downturn

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    Pie chartEmployment

    L di I di t (Shift Sh ) A l i f

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    Employ. Employ. Abs. Change Pct Change

    2007-09 2018 2009-2018 2009-2018

    Agriculture, fores try, fishing, hunting,

    mining 130 138 8 6%Construction 1,096 1,552 459 42%Manufacturing 1,760 2,538 778 44%Wholesale trade 739 793 54 7%

    Retail trade 1,854 2,550 696 38%Transportation, warehousing, utilities 261 478 217 83%Information 389 692 303 78%Finance, insurance, re al estate, rental,

    leasing 2,170 2,869 699 32%Profess ional, scientific, managment,

    admin., waste m anagement 3,406 7,371 3,965 116%Educational se rvices, health care, social

    assistance 2,607 5,124 2,517 97%Arts, entertainme nt, recreation,

    accomodation, food services 1,228 1,807 579 47%Other services 683 1,057 374 55%Government 712 1,064 353 50%

    TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 17,032 28,036 11,004 65%

    Industry

    Leading Indicators (Shift-Share) Analysis ofEmployment Trends for Residents in L.T.I.S.D.

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    Population & Survey Analysts

    Demographic Characteristics ofL.T.I.S.D.

    Employment Trends

    Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdTrends in Student Population

    Projected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

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    Transitioning Suburbs

    Beginning this decade, a slight majority of suburban districts in theU.S. are transitioning to become homes for a younger, mainlyminority population.

    Travel time to workLake Travis I.S.D. 29 minutes to work

    Leander I.S.D. 27.6 minutesEanes I.S.D. 21 minutes

    But travel times in Lake Travis I.S.D. will become shorter with moreoffice space and retail space opening in the District.

    New housing including apartments being built today in L.T.I.S.D.will, to a great extent, determine the configuration of growth andsocioeconomic composition in the District 10 yrs. forward.

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    Major Aquifers

    inCentral Texas

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    Sq.Mi.%

    District

    Parks 6 5%Preserves 8.5 7%

    Water/Rivers 6.2 5%

    Contributing

    Zone29.3 25%

    Inhibitors to

    Development

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    Student

    Distribution byMunicipalJurisdiction

    JurisdictionLTISD

    StudentCity of Lakeway 30.1%

    City of Austin ETJ 16.5%

    City of Bee Cave ETJ 13.2%

    City of Bee Cave 12.2%

    Unincorporated 10.6%

    Village of The Hills 7.2%

    City of Lakeway ETJ 5.9%

    Village of Briarcliff 3.1%

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    DevelopmentDensity

    Jurisdiction %District

    Built-Out 29%

    Developing 6%

    Planned Dev. 13%

    Undeveloped 32%

    Rural Housing 3%Lakes/Rivers 5%

    Parks 5%

    Preserves 7%

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    Changing Housing Characteristics

    The trend of students moving into existing housing units isconsistently occurring throughout the State.

    Older, built-out subdivisions added 35% of all new students this yr.(Hills of Lakeway, Apache Shores, Lake Pointe The Estates,and Travis Landing)

    Existing apartment complexes, condos, and townhomes alsogained in students adding 10% of all new students.

    New housing developments added the most students (51%)(Apache Shores, Falconhead West, Ridge at Alta Vista,Falconhead, West Cypress Hills, and Paleface Ranch)

    New housing (including apartments) being built today in L.T.I.S.D.will, to a great extent, determine the configuration of growth andsocioeconomic composition in the District 10 yrs. forward.

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    Austin Area Housing Downturn = Still a Challenge

    Ted Wilson of Residential Strategies:Austin area builders started ~1,400 homes 3Q 2010

    2,300 starts in the 3Q 2009Builders are in a recharging mode, since the housing tax creditsexpired several months ago.

    MetroStudys Eldon Rude:

    New home inventory represents the lowest level of inventory in 13 years3,200 new homes in inventory in the 3Q 20109,000 hew homes in 2006

    That 3,200 represents a 6.5 month supply of homes

    Austin has the shortest time on the market of the 5 major metro areas in

    TexasNew home sales are down 60% from 4 years ago.

    There is continuing low consumer confidence and an ever-tighteningmortgage underwriting criteria.

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    Largest Residential Developments

    (Single Family and Multi-Family)

    2010-15 2015-20 2010-20

    3D Sweetwater Ranch (SF) 147 425 5723A West Cypress Hills (SF) 197 335 532

    2C Rough Hollow (SF) 125 357 4825B Alta Vista Reserve (SF) 225 150 375

    3B Sweetwater Ranch (MF) 100 250 350

    3H Cassandra Interests parcel (MF) 100 250 350

    2C Rough Hollow (MF) 70 250 320

    8D Serene Hills (MF) 100 220 3203D Artie, Robert & Grumbles parcels (MF) 50 250 300

    New Housing OccupanciesSubdivisionPU

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    Projected NewHousing

    Occupancies

    December 2010to

    October 2011

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    Projected NewHousing

    Occupancies

    December 2010to

    October 2015

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    Projected NewHousing

    Occupancies

    October 2016to

    October 2020

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    Projected NewHousing

    Occupancies

    December 2010to

    October 2020

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    Projected NewHousing

    Occupancies

    October 2020to

    Built-Out

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    Water, Wastewater, Topographic, and Environmental ChallengesAffecting Housing Construction and Build-Out of the District: Part One

    There are no commitments for water and wastewater available for the majority of theundeveloped parcels remaining in the District.

    And, LCRA is emphasizing that they will soon reach their capacity to provide waterfor as-yet-developed subdivisions.

    Likewise, LCRA seeks to have a lessened (or no) responsibility for water andwastewater supply entities and to concentrate on electrical utility provision.

    The Trinity Aquifer and even the Carrizo-Wilcox Aquifer will become more importantwater sources for the Districts undeveloped parcels.

    The City of Austins Smart Growth Initiative, prepared in 2004, and implemented overthe last 8 years, encourages growth to the east of IH-35. This is both due to theEdwards Aquifer (and its contributory zone), and also the topographic challenges,as well as the general aesthetics of the western portions of the Citys ETJ and of the

    County due to this topography.

    But, despite this emphasis on eastern sector growth, the demand for housing inaesthetically pleasing locations near Lake Austin and Lake Travis has remainedhigh, even during the economic downturn.

    Water, Wastewater, Topographic, and Environmental Challenges

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    Water, Wastewater, Topographic, and Environmental ChallengesAffecting Housing Construction, and Build-Out of the District : Part Two

    Many large tracts, particularly on Lake Austin and Barton Creek, could becomeconservation districts, preserves, or parks. It is difficult to estimate which of theseparcels will be taken out of potential markets for residential development.

    Among these parcels with unknown futures are Patricia Murfins two tracts in PlanningUnits 61 and 5B (on Lake Austin), Patricia and Robert Ayers tracts in 3F and 3E (onBarton Creek), Mitchell Wongs tracts in 3G (on Barton Creek), and other similar parcels.It is likely that some portions of these tracts will be used for residential development,while other portions will be set aside for conservation purposes.

    Some of these tracts listed above are already adjacent to the City of Austin, Travis

    County, or the University of Texas-owned parcels.

    Many parcels west of RR 620 on both sides of SH 71 have no sewer and no water supply.LCRA may provide wastewater pipelines within 5 or more years, and this could drasticallychange the density levels of new housing if this occurs prior to other land uses.

    It should be emphasized that multi-family developments will sprout up within theDistrict in locations where PASA cannot now project with over 50% certainty. In the

    current build-out projections, many of these MF units will be omitted, thus under-estimating total future student population.

    The build-out projections will change on a constant basis, and will have to be revisedregularly. These long-term projections simply point to the locational configuration oflong-term growth.

    N

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    ProjectedNew HousingOccupancies2010 2020

    Year Ending in

    October:

    Single

    Family

    Multi-

    Family

    New

    Housing

    Units

    2011 437 17 454

    2012 549 35 584

    2013 731 51 782

    2014 888 252 1,140

    2015 993 358 1,351

    2016 1,068 355 1,4232017 1,094 324 1,418

    2018 1,016 349 1,365

    2019 1,024 352 1,376

    2020 1,064 324 1,3882010-2015 3,598 713 4,311

    2015-2020 5,266 1,704 6,970

    2010-2020 8,864 2,417 11,281

    H i U it i LTISD

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    Housing Units in LTISDCurrent and Future

    # % # %Most Recent ACS

    (2007-09) 13,562 88% 1,934 12%

    Projected Added

    (2008-2020)9,264 77% 2,717 23%

    Projected Total

    (2020)23,298 83% 4,745 17%

    Multi-FamilySingle-Family

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    Population & Survey Analysts

    Demographic Characteristics ofL.T.I.S.D.

    Employment Trends

    Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdHistorical Trends in Student Population

    Projected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

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    Ratios of Students per Household

    2009-10

    0.44students per home

    0.13

    students per unit

    Single-FamilyHomes

    Apartments

    2010-11

    0.57students per home

    0.11

    students per unit

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    Population & Survey Analysts

    Demographic Characteristics ofL.T.I.S.D.

    Employment Trends

    Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdTrends in Student Population

    Projected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

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    Student Growth by

    Type of Housing

    # %

    Apartments

    143 156 13 9% 3%TH/Condos - built-out 160 189 29 18% 6%TH/Condos - actively building 10 26 16 160% 3%MHP 10 16 6 60% 1%

    Subdivisions - built-out 4,106 4,274 168 4% 35%Subdivisions - actively building 1,604 1,847 243 15% 51%

    Percent

    of

    Growth

    Added Students

    2009 to 2010Resident

    Students

    in 2010

    Resident

    Students

    in 2009

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    Absolute and

    Percent Change

    EE-12

    th

    Gradeby Subdivision

    Fall 2009

    Spring 2011

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    Absolute& PercentChange in

    EE-12th

    GradeStudents

    September

    2009 toJanuary

    2011

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    Absolute

    & PercentChange in

    EE-5th

    GradeStudents

    September

    2009 toJanuary2011

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    Absolute& PercentChange in

    6th-8th

    GradeStudents

    September

    2009 toJanuary

    2011

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    Population & Survey Analysts

    Demographic Characteristics ofL.T.I.S.D.

    Employment Trends

    Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdTrends in Student Population

    Projected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

    Model for Developing Student Projections

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    Model for Developing Student Projections

    New Housing Growth

    454addedhousingoccupancies by Oct. 20114,311 added housing occupancies by Oct. 20156,970added housing occupancies 2016-202011,281 TOTAL ADDED OCCUPANCIES BY 2020

    Increasing Ratios of Students per House2009-10:0.44students per house2010-11:0.57students per house

    Increasing Density of Students in Existing Homes35%of new students last year moved intobuilt-out subdivisions

    M d t G th S i A ti

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    Housing demand increases slightly each year with thecreeping economic recovery

    KN growth remains same but, slowly increases as entry-level mortgages are more available

    Unemployment remains at 7% in Austin and then slowlyreturns to 4% or 4.5% over the next 4 years

    A slight increase in immigration into Austin spawns anincrease in (indirect) demand for housing in L.T.I.S.D.

    Employment growth will reflect increases in specific sectorsand new employment centers (medical/health, for example)

    Interest rates remain within 2% of current levels

    Middle Eastern and other global concerns do not accelerate

    Moderate Growth Scenario: Assumptions

    Projected Enrollment

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    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    8,000

    9,000

    10,000

    11,000

    12,000

    13,000

    14,000

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    20075,871

    20117,4537,3507,247

    20106,940

    20159,8429,263

    8,681

    202013,692

    12,34410,915

    junder

    Three Scenarios of Growth

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    Population & Survey Analysts

    Demographic Characteristics ofL.T.I.S.D

    Employment Trends

    Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdTrends in Student Population

    Projected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

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    ProjectedResident

    EE-5thGrade

    Students

    2011,2015, and

    2020

    Long Range Planning

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    g g gElementary Schools

    ,

    ,

    ,

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    ,

    ,

    ,

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    ,

    ,

    ,

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Projected Students vs. Current Capacity

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Lake Pointe Lake TravisBee Cave

    Serene HillsLakeway

    Capacity = 850

    High Growth

    Moderate Growth

    Low Growth

    2,000

    1,000

    2,000

    1,000

    Long Range Planning

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    g g gElementary Schools

    Projected Students vs. Current Capacity

    High Growth

    Moderate Growth

    Low Growth

    Capacity = 4,250

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    ProjectedResident

    6th-8thGrade

    Students

    2011,2015, and

    2020

    Long Range Planning

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    Long Range Planning

    Middle Schools

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Students Projected 904 939 948 968 1,011 1,061 1,106 1,150 1,200 1,246

    Percent Utilization 100% 104% 105% 108% 112% 118% 123% 128% 133% 138%

    Student Margin -4 -39 -48 -68 -111 -161 -206 -250 -300 -346

    Students Projected 816 896 964 1,000 1,066 1,164 1,271 1,383 1,483 1,584

    Percent Utilization 91% 100% 107% 111% 118% 129% 141% 154% 165% 176%

    Student Margin 84 4 -64 -100 -166 -264 -371 -483 -583 -684

    Practical Capacity 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

    Students Projected 1,720 1,835 1,912 1,968 2,077 2,225 2,377 2,533 2,683 2,830

    Student Margin 80 -35 -112 -168 -277 -425 -577 -733 -883 -1,030

    Hudson Bend Middle School (Capacity = 900)

    Lake Travis Middle School (Capacity = 900)

    Total

    Projected Students vs. Current Capacity

    Long Range Planning

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    Long Range Planning

    Middle Schools

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Students Projected 948 968 1,011 1,061 1,106 1,150 1,200 1,246

    Percent Utilization 79% 81% 84% 88% 92% 96% 100% 104%

    Student Margin -48 -68 -111 -161 -206 -250 -300 -346

    Students Projected 964 1,000 1,066 1,164 1,271 1,383 1,483 1,584

    Percent Utilization 80% 83% 89% 97% 106% 115% 124% 132%

    Student Margin -64 -100 -166 -264 -371 -483 -583 -684

    Practical Capacity 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

    Students Projected 1,912 1,968 2,077 2,225 2,377 2,533 2,683 2,830

    Student Margin -112 -168 -277 -425 -577 -733 -883 -1,030

    Hudson Bend Middle School (Capacity = 1,200)

    Lake Travis Middle School(Capacity = 1,200)

    Total

    Projected Students vs. Alternative Facility Utilization

    Long Range Planning

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    Long Range Planning

    Middle Schools

    Projected Students vs. Current Capacity

    Capacity Capacity

    800

    900

    1,000

    1,100

    1,200

    1,300

    1,400

    1,500

    1,600

    1,700

    1,800

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    800

    900

    1,000

    1,100

    1,200

    1,300

    1,400

    1,500

    1,600

    1,700

    1,800

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Capacity Capacity

    Hudson BendMiddle School

    Lake TravisMiddle School

    HighGrowth

    HighGrowth

    ModerateGrowth

    ModerateGrowth

    LowGrowth

    LowGrowth

    Long Range Planning

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    Long Range Planning

    Middle Schools

    900

    1,000

    1,100

    1,200

    1,300

    1,400

    1,500

    1,600

    1,700

    1,800

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    900

    1,000

    1,100

    1,200

    1,300

    1,400

    1,500

    1,600

    1,700

    1,800

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Lake TravisMiddle School

    Hudson BendMiddle School

    Projected Students vs. Alternative Facility Utilization

    HighGrowth

    HighGrowth

    ModerateGrowth

    Moderate

    Growth

    LowGrowth

    LowGrowth

    Capacity Capacity

    Long Range Planning

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    Long Range Planning

    High School

    Capacity Capacity

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    HighGrowth

    HighGrowth

    ModerateGrowth

    ModerateGrowth

    LowGrowthLow

    Growth

    Capacity = 2,500

    Capacity = 3,500

    AlternativeFacility

    Utilization

    Current

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    Lake Travis I.S.D.

    Demographic Update

    March 8, 2011

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