Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase II August 22, 2012 - North Allegheny School ... · 2012....

Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase II

August 22, 2012

North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2

Agenda

• Introduction • Review of Demographics and Feasibility Study - Phase I • Scope of Work for Demographics and Feasibility Study - Phase II • Review of Technology Upgrades • Review of updated Demographics and Enrollment information • Review of building utilization analysis • Review of estimated costs for building repairs and maintenance at BWE, MES &

MMS and modifications at Hosack and McKnight • Recommendations for building use and next steps • Questions and Comments


Work Accomplished to Date – Phase I

• Reviewed existing conditions at BWE, MES and MMS to identify repairs and provided estimated costs

• Developed projected enrollments for next 10 years • Developed options for building utilization • Recommended a Second Phase study to review and refine options


Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase II

• Review estimates developed during Phase I • Develop cost estimates for District wide technology upgrades • Investigate options for building utilization • Develop estimates for enclosure of classrooms at Hosack and the

build out of 4 classrooms at McKnight • Review and expand demographics information presented in Phase I • Review impact of projected housing development in the District on

future enrollment • Retained Thomas & Williamson in December 2011


Mr. Jon Thomas

Thomas & Williamson


Demographics Analysis

Demographics

Enrollment Projections

Building Utilization

Maintenance & Repairs

Technology Upgrades

Demographic Trends Impacting the North Allegheny School District By Chris Briem

Review of Updated Demographics

• Retained Mr. Chris Briem of Univ. of Pittsburgh to review the following demographics information; – Migration Patterns and Trends – Age of population – Project population – Review of new housing and turnover of existing housing


Outline

• Review of Phase I Demographics Information • Regional and County Population Trends • Population Migration Impacting NASD • Building and Construction • Elementary School Projections


Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Annual Net Migration into the Pittsburgh MSA

Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Estimated Population Age 25-64 Allegheny County, 2000-2011

640,000

650,000

660,000

670,000


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Southwest Planning Commission Projected Population Growth Allegheny County, 2010 - 2040

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

SPC Projected Population Growth 2010-2040 Allegheny County School Districts


0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

CarlyntonSto-Rox

Keystone OaksAllegheny Valley

Penn HillsMcKeesport Area

Wilkinsburg BoroughSteel Valley

Elizabeth ForwardWoodland Hills

RiverviewPittsburgh

Baldwin-WhitehallNorthgate

East AlleghenyNorth Hills

Duquesne CityHighlands

Brentwood BoroughCornell

Bethel ParkUpper Saint ClairSouth Allegheny

Shaler AreaWest Mifflin Area

GatewayMt LebanonClairton City

South ParkPlum Borough

Fort CherryWest Jefferson Hills

Quaker ValleyHampton Township

North AlleghenyChartiers Valley

Moon AreaFox Chapel Area

Deer LakesAvonworth

West AlleghenyMontour

South Fayette TownshipPine-Richland

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Significantly slower rate than 1980 -1990 But greatly outpacing Allegheny County

Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

35019

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

11

McCandless

Marshall

Franklin Park

Bradford Woods


Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

SPC Population Projections by Municipality

Municipality 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Bradford Woods

1,222 1,242 1,273 1,307 1,354 1,414 1,475

Franklin Park 12,446 13,123 13,887 14,755 15,735 16,795 17,943

McCandless 25,831 25,659 25,732 26,036 26,722 27,466 28,279

Marshall 6,763 7,232 7,755 8,344 8,993 9,693 10,442

District 46262 47,256 48,647 50,442 52,804 55,368 58,139


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Proportion of Public School Enrollment North Allegheny School District

33.5%

74.5%

82.4%

89.1% 91.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nursery school,preschool

Kindergarten Grade 1 to grade 4 Grade 5 to grade 8 Grade 9 to grade 12


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Distribution by Single Year of Age for Children moving into North Hills Communities

9.4% 8.9%

6.3% 6.5%

5.4%

6.6%

4.6% 5.0% 4.8%

4.4%

5.9%

4.7% 4.9% 5.3%

5.0%

5.8% 6.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Conclusions

• Past trends are not particularly good predictor of the future. • NA communities have grown and been consistently stable - while

Allegheny County experienced decline. • Population growth in NA has slowed to just 2.3% from 2000 to 2010 • “Aging-in-place” and slower building have depressed enrollment trends • Short term population gains in NA will be minimal • Significant changes in Pittsburgh region and Allegheny County population

trends. • Long term population gains will follow Allegheny County • Marshall will account for 40% of growth, Franklin Park: 60%, Bradford

Woods: no change and McCandless will decline 4% over the next decade. • North Allegheny SD municipalities remain among the most stable in the

county.


Demographics




Technology Upgrades



• Reviewed the Phase 1 enrollment projections • Prepared updated projections with last year’s data • Used the same method – with the following exceptions:

Phase 1 Enrollment Projections:

- Ten-year averages - Birth counts are factored up 12% - One set of retention rates used for all schools - Analyzes Grade K to Grade 1 retention

Phase 2 Enrollment Projections:

- Five-year averages - Birth counts are not factored - Analyzes Birth to Grade 1 retention - 7 unique sets of retention rates used for

elementary – 3 for middle schools

Demographics




Technology Upgrades

1.0694

1.0390

0.9750

1.0256

0.9875 0.9833 1.0147 0.9892 0.9875

+ + + + = 5

0.9925


Cohort Survival Analysis - How it Works

71 x 0.9925

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Cohort Survival Analysis - Correlating Enrollment to Births

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Cohort Survival Analysis

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Demographics




Technology Upgrades


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

BradfordWoodsFranklin Park

MarshallTwp.McCandlessTwp

District-wide Births per Year

Cohort Survival Analysis

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Enrollment Projections – Middle School Grades

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Enrollment Projections – High School Grades

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Enrollment Projections – District Totals

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Housing Developments


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Building Utilization Options


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Building Utilization Options Why are we looking for options?


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Building Utilization Options What options were considered?

• Option #1 – Base Option: Consistent Sections per Grade Level (“rounds”) Using PDE Unit Capacities

• Option #1 – Alternate: Consistent Sections per Grade Level (“rounds”) Using NA Unit Capacities

• Option #2 – Base Option: Peebles Closed, PDE Unit Capacities

• Option #2 – Alternate: Peebles Closed, NA Unit Capacities

• Option #3 – Base Option: K-2, 3-5, Princeton Plan, PDE Unit Capacities

• Option #3 – Alternate: K-2, 3-5, Princeton Plan, NA Unit Capacities


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Building Utilization Options Background


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Building Utilization Options Option 1 - Existing Configuration


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Building Utilization Options Option 2 - Closure of Peebles - Recommended


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Building Utilization Options Princeton Plan


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Building Utilization Options Option #3 – Princeton Plan

Alternate _______

Recommendation

• Option 2 – Closure of Peebles – Adequate Capacity – Lower Operating Costs – Building

• Wood Construction • Less Developable Site • Access • Southern McCandless and 1 mile from Hosack

Recommendation

• Why maintain Bradford Woods Elementary? – Maintenance and repair costs are significantly lower

that the original estimates. – Located adjacent to the growth area of the District. – Modern construction – steel framing

• Why maintain Hosack Elementary? – Modern construction – steel framing – Developable site – Good site access – Minimal cost to enclose open classrooms - $134,800


Building Maintenance & Repairs

Demographics




Technology Upgrades


Demographics




Technology Upgrades

Proposed School Closure Timeline

• Set the date for the Public Hearing in mid-December 2012

• Advertise for Public Hearing in early January 2013

• Hold Public Hearing 15 days after advertisement – Late January 2013

• Formal Board Action for School Closure – Late April 2013

• Closure effective 2013/2014 School Year

Questions and Comments

Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase II August 22, 2012 - North Allegheny School ... · 2012....

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