Demographic Trends and Implications for Development
Transcript of Demographic Trends and Implications for Development
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Demographic Trends and
Implications for Development
John Bongaarts
Population Council
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Outline
• Background: population growth and fertility
• Consequences of demographic trends
• Policy options
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Population growth rates 2005-2010
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0 2 4 6 8Gro
wth
rate
(%)
Births per woman
Population growth by fertility level
1.High fertility/growth
2. Intermediate fertility/growth
3. Low fertility/growth
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Group 1
Demographic consequences of high fertility
• Rapid population growth
• Young age structure
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0
20
40
60
80
100%
of p
opul
atio
n
Population by age (<25,>25)Age
>25
<25
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Rat
io (1
950=
1)
Youth (15-25) by country
Nigeria
Pakistan
India
China
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Group1: Consequences of High fertility and rapid population growth
• Governmental: Lagging investment in education, health services and infrastructure
• Economic: Low wages, unemployment, poverty
• Environmental: Depletion of natural resources, pollution
• Political: Rising political unrest and crime
• Health: High maternal and child mortality
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Group 2: Intermediate/ declining fertility
• Declining population growth rates
• Fewer young people, more workers
• Demographic dividend
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Population by age: Mexico
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Demographic Dividend:
Boosts growth in GDP/cap by raising
1) Relative size of workforce
2) Women’s participation in paid labor force
3) Investments in human and physical capital
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30
40
50
60
70
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
Working age population (%)
Developed world
Demographic Dividend
Developing world
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1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
-%
Gro
wth
rate
GD
P/ca
p
+
Impact of demographic dividend on economic growth rate (GDP/cap)
Developing world
Developed world
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Group 2: Consequences of Intermediate/declining fertility
• Governmental: Large investments in education, health services and infrastructure
• Economic: Demographic dividend
• Environmental: Depletion of natural resources, air, water and soil pollution
• Political: Inequality and disaffected voters
• Health: Declining maternal and child mortality
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Group 3: Low fertility
• Near zero or negative population growth rates
• Rapid population aging
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Population by age: Italy
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1975 2000 2025 2050
Retirees/Worker
ItalySpainGermanyJapanFranceCanadaUKChinaUSA
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1975 2000 2025 2050
Rat
ioPop 65+/Pop 20-64
Japan
Italy
Spain
Germany
France
Canada
China
UK
USA
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Group 3: Consequences of low fertility
• Economic
Unsustainable health and pension costsRising governmental budget deficits
• Political Rising voting power of the elderly
Slower economic growth Slower growth in GDP/capSlower growth in worker productivity (?)
• Governmental
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A. High fertility countries
B. Very low fertility countries
Policy options :
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• Family planning programs to reduce
unplanned pregnancies
• Investments in human capital (e.g. girls
education)
• Delay childbearing
A. Policy options in high fertility countries:
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B. Policy options in aging societies
Demographic optionsEncourage childbearing; permit more immigration.
Pension system options Reduce benefits; raise contributions; raise age at
eligibility; encourage private savings.
Labor force optionsEncourage higher labor force participation
and later age at retirement.
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Conclusions
• Very high and very low fertility have net adverse effects
• Declining high fertility brings multiple benefits for human welfare and the environment
• Policies are available to maximize positive effects and minimize negative effects