Demographic Processes
-
Upload
sr-edith-bogue -
Category
Education
-
view
747 -
download
1
description
Transcript of Demographic Processes
Explanations & Supplemental Informationfor Chapter 19 of The Sociology Project
Population Dynamics
Rate of Population Change
Rate of Population Change
Population Dynamics: Key Terms & Core Concepts
• Understanding of set of processes underlying • Births,• Deaths,• Movement into and out of given population
• Describing change in• Fertility, • Mortality, • Migration
• Understanding what might be causing changes
CORE CONCEPT: MANIFEST and LATENT FUNCTIONSMANIFEST functions of a social pattern
outcomes people consciously intend or predict from the actions they choose
the explanations they give themselvesLATENT functions of a social pattern
the outcomes that regularly occur but are neither foreseen or intended.
must be discovered through researchPOPULATION dynamics stem from BOTH
Factors Affecting FertilityLATENT
PolygynyDowry (economic)Marry late (age)Taboos about
non-marital sexual intercourse
Higher divorce ratesReligious bans
(180 days/year)Breastfeeding
MANIFESTPotions, spells, etc.Since 1850 B.C., barrier
methods of contraception used
Coitus interruptusAbortionInfanticide
(c.f. story of Moses...)
Demographic Transition
Core Concept: Demographic transition• Initial pretransition period:
• high fertility • high mortality
• Transitional period • mortality first declines • followed by decline in fertility
• Posttransition period• both fertility and mortality are low
Demographic Transition Theory
Comparison of 3 Nations:Sudan-1950
Start of first demographic transitionRapid decreases in mortality, but much later and slower
decreases in fertility, which in turn imply very rapid population growth
U.S.End of first demographic transitionAge pyramid after age 60Replacement fertility
JapanCompleted first demographic transitionBelow replacement fertility
Changes in Fertility and Mortality Around the World: A Closer Look
Immigration • U.S.: Population involves in- and out-migration• Japan: Very small immigrant population
Population momentum• U.S.: Continued slow growth• Japan: Initial and then decreased growth
MIGRATION
Aging of Baby Boomers
Baby Boom bulge in middle of pyramid. Long lives means many more elderly in future years.
The Epidemiological Transition
First demographic transition• Impacts kinds of disease and health conditions affecting
countries
Epidemiological transition• Healh transition of population
• from health conditions primarily involving infectious disease • to health conditions primarily involving chronic disease
Factors Affecting Demographics
Number of children born to women in the 40-44 age group in the USA
16
Why 40-44?
First bar = 1976(What year were these women 20 years old?)
Last bar = 1998(What year were these women 20 years old?)
What pattern?
Preferences Concerning Gender of Children, 1941 and 2000, U.S.A.
17Light Saber
Planning fora world with many elders & few babies.
Aging economies: 2010
Aging economies: 2040
This pattern is very likely, unless something occurs that causes the death rate of the elderly to increase dramatically.
Source: United Nations FPA: Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and A Challengehttp://www.unfpa.org/webdav/site/global/shared/documents/publications/2012/UNFPA-Main-Report-Part2.pdf
Will some countries age more quickly than others?
Japan (if fertility remains at very low subreplacement levels)• Rapid population aging• Rapid population declineDemographic Winter (Friday’s film) will report fertility figures for some of European countries that are well below 2.0, some as low as 1.1 children per woman (population will be half its current size in 33 years).
Aging and Population Dynamics
Aging economies: 2070
This pattern is somewhat less certain. No nation has ever reversed the decline in birth-rate. However, governments in Japan, Russia and Sweden are trying to boost their birth rates. Such policies might have an impact.
Possible
World
Population
Growth
Curves
Some social scientists have great concern that population decline will have economic and social consequences that will be hard to live with. They produced a film titled Demographic Winter.
What are the patterns of childbearing?
What are the economic impacts?
What are the social trends that generated and sustain the pattern?
Is this a problem?
If so, what policies are needed?
Demographic Winter
The search for causes is seeking explanation
If the situation is considered a problem, the resolution is not necessarily the reversal of the original circumstances. Example: Obesity is a growing problem because we
have more, cheaper food than any time in history. No one suggests going back to less efficient agriculture to cure obesity – but other policies do try to have an impact on the problem.
The facts in the film are solid. It is designed to be provocative so that people think.
Policy choice
Explanations & Supplemental Informationfor Chapter 19 of The Sociology Project
Population Dynamics