Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa · Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa Some...
Transcript of Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa · Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa Some...
Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa
Some Findings from Two WBG Reports
Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa
Some Findings from Two WBG Reports
Washington, April, 2015
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1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
2061
2064
2067
2070
2073
2076
2079
2082
2085
2088
2091
2094
2097
2100
Population ProjectionsMedium Fertility Scenario
East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central AsiaLatin America & Caribbean Middle East & North AfricaSouth Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: adapted to World Bank regions using data from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013).
Dividend or Disaster?
Highest fertility rates in the world are associated with:
• High maternal and child mortality
• Low women’s empowerment
• Low investment in education
• High dependency ratios • Youth employment
challenges
Background papers (regional report)
1 Literature Review Demographics 12 Aging and in Africa
2 Population polices in Africa 13 Source economic growth in Africa
3 Literature Review Demographic Dividend 14 Savings in Africa
4 Social determinants in Africa 15 Model of the Economic Effects of Fertility Change
5 Proximate determinants of Africa 16 Case Study – Pakistan and Bangladesh
6 Supply Side of Family Planning 17 Case Study – Nigeria and Kenya
7The Demographic Transition and Urbanization
18 Case Study – Ethiopia and Ghana
8 The Effect of Demographic Transition on ChildHealth
19 Case Study - DRC
9 The Effect of Demographic Transition on Education
20 Case Study - Brazil
10 The Youth Bulge and Labor Markets
11 Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation
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Africa’s rise: Twenty years of sustained economic growth have established that Africa can find its own path to
successful development.
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1050
Rea
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P pe
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S$ a
t 200
5 pr
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Actual Trend
Source: World Development Indicators.
Mortality Trends
Fertility Trends
Heterogeneity of Fertility Rates in Africa
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Total Fertility RatesAFRICATFR
1.59 - 2.64
3.05 - 3.59
3.85 - 4.62
4.69 - 5.50
5.74 - 6.92
Total Fertility RatesAFRICATFR
1.59 - 2.64
3.05 - 3.59
3.85 - 4.62
4.69 - 5.50
5.74 - 6.92
Different Rates of Change
How a Population Bulge is Created
Age Structure Transformation
Female Education
12*Various DHS Surveys. Macro International Inc. Calverton, Maryland
Contributions of age structure to recent changes in resources per child
Other Sectors covered by the Regional Report
• Demography and Health (children and mothers)• Family Planning• Urbanization• Female Labor Force Participation• Youth Bulge and Labor Markets• Sources of Economic Growth• Savings and Financial Institutions• Aging
Optimism, but … Reasons for Optimism:
• Child Mortality Declining Fast• Rapid enrollment in schooling for girls• Economic dynamism in Africa (potential fiscal
space)But the Dividend is not automatic and some
countries are lagging considerably on the demographic transition
Dividend Policies and Timing
I. Managing/speeding up the Demographic Transition• Child Mortality/Morbidity• Female Education• Social Norms• Family Planning
II.1st Economic Dividend: Youth Bulge to Workforce• Skills/education• Jobs, Jobs, Jobs (where from?)• Domestic saving and FDI
III.2nd Economic Dividend: Savings of the Cohort• Financial institutions/mechanisms• Savings policy (e.g. Pensions)
Second Study: Sahel DemographyStunted Demographic Transition:
• Mortality has started to decline • Fertility has not declined consistently• Implications to health and nutrition• Implications to dependency ratios (population pyramid)• Implications to poverty reduction
Three Analytical Lenses• Quantitative analysis of drivers• Qualitative analysis (focus groups and informant
interviews)• Policy mapping
Main Findings (Sahel)
While Mortality is declining, it is still too highVery high demand for children, even in urban settings
• Retirement security (concerns about child survival)• Cultural norms• Gender power relationships
Challenges in Family Planning ProgramsEducation sector limitations, especially for girlsPaper Policies
• Limited prioritization• Major implementation challenges (budgets and institutions)