DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN BRAZIL - Ernesto Amaral
Transcript of DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN BRAZIL - Ernesto Amaral
DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS OF AGE STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENT
ERNESTO F. AMARAL
POPULATION RESEARCH CENTER
THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN
DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
Falling birth rate results in a smaller
proportion of population at younger ages
and in a higher proportion at adult ages.
It creates a good environment for a society in
terms of economic development.
FORMS OF ACTION
The consequences of the fertility decline on
the age structure can justify the family
planning in an imposing approach.
On the other hand, the demographic dividend
can be seen as a logical potentiality for the
country development.
POSSIBLE BENEFITS
The benefits of the dividend are not only
determined by the demographic conditions
of a society.
Instead, these benefits will occur only with
specific economic conditions, state
institutions, and family arrangements.
BRAZIL
Fertility declined from 6.3 in 1960 to 2.3
children per woman in 2000.
The demographic dividend should not be
used as a framework to implement strict
planning policies.
Government has to consider the dividend as
a population component.
1960-2000 Censuses microdata are analyzed.
10 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 10
10 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 10
10 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 1010 5 0 5 10
AGE STRUCTURE IN BRAZIL 1970
2000 1991
1980
Women Men
Source: Brazilian Census Bureau (IBGE).
Percent
POPULATION IN LABOR AGES
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Percent
15-24 years
Source: Oliveira (2004).
25-44 years
45-64 years
15-64 years
DIVIDEND IS ALREADY HELPING
One might think that the economic recession
in the 1990s reduced the demographic
dividend in Brazil.
However, municipal-level data shows that
earnings stagnation would be much more
dramatic without the demographic dividend.
EARNINGS PER CAPITA
The proportion of the total population in
labor ages had a positive impact on the
growth of earnings per capita in the 1990s.
This process happened in the municipal
level, even with the increase of informal
economy and unemployment rates.
GROWTH OF MUNICIPAL
EARNINGS PER CAPITA, 1991-2000
GRÁFICO 7:
GRÁFICO 8:
Crescimento da Renda Per Capita Municipal 1991-2000
-0,04
-0,02
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
3,5022 3,7315 3,87 4,1594 4,67 5,0979 5,3995 5,5772 5,8473
LN da Renda Per Capita Municipal em 1991
Taxa d
e c
rescim
en
to
Crescimento Renda PerCapita
Crescimento da Renda Per Capita Municipal 1991-2000
-0,02
-0,01
0
0,01
0,02
0,03
0,04
0,05
0,06
0,07
0,08
-0,771 -0,712 -0,686 -0,634 -0,538 -0,475 -0,447 -0,431 -0,406
LN da Razão PIA/POP Municipal em 1991
Taxa d
e c
rescim
en
to
Crescimento Renda PerCapita
Municipal
earnings
per capita
growth
rate
Ratio of population in labor ages
by total population in 1991 (logarithm)
Source: Rios-Neto (2005).
EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT
The decline in the proportion of population at
younger ages was crucial to the success of
the expansion of schooling attainment
implemented by government policies.
The rise in mother's education increased the
demand for school enrollment.
However, low-income families have smaller
demand for children education attainment.
IMPLICATIONS
Findings suggest that the demographic dividend
has an important role in the growth of municipal
earnings per capita.
Because of Brazilian inequality, universal public
policies do not seem to be the best option, such
as observed in the education findings.
One example of focalized policy is the one
transferring earnings to low-income families that
keep their children in school (Bolsa Família).
RECOMMENDATIONS
The demographic dividend has to be taken into
account to generate new policies or improve
existing ones.
Policies should focus on the transfers of
earnings to the low-income and less-educated
population groups.
The National Population Council should take a
lead to include the population analysis in the
agenda of other ministries.
SUMMARY
The most important challenge for the Brazilian
society is to generate employment for the people
entering the labor force, as well as to improve their
educational skills.
The Brazilian government has to implement new
policies in order to face the new national
demographic characteristics.
If government policies and civil society do not act in
the next years, the aging population will become a
social problem.