Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate...
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Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Demographic
Clarity for
BusinessesBy
John Burns &
Chris Porter
www.bigshiftsahead.com
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced whatsoever without prior written consent
of the author, except as provided by the United States of America copyright law.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Defining generations by decade born makes analysis far more relevant
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
321 million Americans identify well with people their own age2015 US POPULATION BY PLACE OF B IRTH
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2014 National Projections
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Births surged in the 1950s and 1980sUS B IRTHS PER YEAR
Source: Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics and CDC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The GI Bill spurred an 18% homeownership boost from 1940 to 1960US HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES (1900 -2015)
Sources: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census and Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey,
John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
1950s highway construction enabled suburban lifeVEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL
Sources: US Department of Transportation, Highway Statistics
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1930s Savers led an almost 200% spike in divorcesDIVORCES AND ANNULMENTS
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data;
* Color coded based on 32 years old as the median age of first divorce. Note: For states that do not collect this data
(varies by year), we estimated the number based on the number of people in that state. Annulments included above.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Government assistance programs aided a surge in the rate of older people living on their ownSHARE OF 75+ YEAR -OLD POPULATION HEADING A HOUSEHOLD
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Rising debt has both increased affluence and made each generation more susceptible to financial difficulties in tough economic timesTOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OWNED AND SECURITIZED
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, St. Louis Fed
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Major events and technologies led to a baby boom and a baby bust only 25 years laterNUMBER OF CHILDREN PER WOMAN
Sources: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
* Based on a survey of women aged 40-44 at the time of the survey
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Rising young women’s incomes endedin the 2000sFEMALE MEDIAN REAL INCOME, WOMEN AGED 25–34 (2013 DOLLARS)
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements;
averaged over 5 years for 1980s Sharers
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1940s Achievers earned the most money in their preretirement years of 55–64REAL MEDIAN INCOME OF PEOPLE 55 –64 (1947–2013)
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements;
averaged over 5 years for 1950s Innovators
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Entrepreneurship has plummetedNEW START-UPS AS A PERCENT OF ALL BUSINESSES
Source: US Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1950s Innovators earned the most money in their peak earning years of 45–54REAL MEDIAN INCOME OF PEOPLE 45 –54 (1947–2013)
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements;
averaged over 5 years for 1960s Equalers
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1950s Innovators head into retirement with $18 trillion, the most of any generationNET WORTH BY GENERATION
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System
2013 Survey of Consumer Finances
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1960s Equalers have lower net worth than prior generationsFAMILY MEDIAN NET WORTH 45–54, ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION, 2013
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2014 National Projections
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
1960s Equaler dads increasingly stay at home to raise the kidsPERCENT OF NON-WORKING FATHERS THAT STAY HOME TO TAKE CARE OF HOME/FAMILY
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
By 2000, 73% of working-age women workedFEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE, AGES 20 –64
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data;
color-coded based on the year a generation turns 20
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
1970s Balancer couples led the way for more work/family balancePERCENT OF FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS WITH 2+ EARNERS
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements
Family households include all households with at least 2 family members in it.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Stay-at-home moms plummeted but in 2000 the Balancers led a reversalSHARE OF MOMS WHO STAY AT HOME FULL T IME
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS; colors based on a 30-year-old mother
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
At $47k, 1970s Balancers have the lowest net worth in generationsMEDIAN NET WORTH 35 -44 , ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION 2013
Source: 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances, colors based on the majority of 45–54-year-olds in the survey year
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Student debt delays young adult milestonesPERCENT OF PEOPLE 18 –40 WITH STUDENT LOAN DEBT
WHO DELAYED THESE MILESTONES BECAUSE OF THAT DEBT
Source: Bankrate Money Pulse Survey, published August 2015
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
1980s Sharers significantly delayed marriage and childrenPERCENT OF 25 –29 YEAR-OLDS S INGLE AND WITHOUT CHILDREN
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Student debt quintuples in 11 yearsSTUDENT LOANS OUTSTANDING (TRILL IONS)
Sources: New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Young adults’ incomes plunging 1% per year since 2000, despite rising education levelsREAL MEDIAN INCOME, PEOPLE AGED 25 –34 , (2013 DOLLARS)
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
A quadrupling of childhood obesityPERCENTAGE OF OBESE 12 –19 YEAR-OLDS
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
42% of young adults work in jobs below their qualification levelUNDEREMPLOYMENT RATE OF RECENT HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; Economic Policy Institute
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 4-5-6 Rule for Demographic Predictions
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Lowest homeownership in 40 yearsHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE, ANNUAL AVERAGE
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
More immigrants legally moved to the US from 1990-2009 than the prior 60 yearsLEGAL IMMIGRATION BY DECADE
Source: Department of Homeland Security, legal green card recipients only, fiscal years ending September
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
38 million people receive Social Security benefits todayRETIREES RECEIV ING SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS (MILL IONS )
Source: Social Security Administration. Retired workers only—does not include dependents receiving benefits
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLCSource: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data
Those born in 1980 and later struggled in an economy more similar to the 1930s than any decade since thenREAL GDP GROWTH
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Economic growth has declined for each generationAV E R A G E R E A L G D P G R O W TH P E R P E R S O N D U R I N G P R I M E
W O R K I N G YE A R S ( 2 5 -5 4 )
* Prime working years not yet complete
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Life expectancy has almost doubled in the last century thanks in part to health technologyUS L IFE EXPECTANCY AT B IRTH
Source: Mapping History, University of Oregon (1880-2000); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
National Vital Statistics Reports, 2010
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Americans now move every 9 years compared to every 6 years in the 1980sSHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT MOVED IN THE PRIOR YEAR
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Social shifts happen more quickly nowNUMBER OF YEARS FROM AN ISSUE’S TRIGGER POINT
UNTIL FEDERAL ACTION WAS TAKEN
Source: Bloomberg; measured from the year at least one state took action to federal action
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Sharer women give birth 3 years later than their mom and 5 years later than their grandmotherWOMEN’S MEDIAN AGE AT B IRTH OF F IRST CHILD
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Less than 2/3 of 1970s Balancers are married in their late 30s, compared to 84% of 1930s SaversPERCENT OF PEOPLE MARRIED BY AGE AND B IRTH YEAR, AGE 35 –39
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Women receive 58% of college degreesPERCENT OF ALL BACHELOR’S AND MASTER’S DEGREES CONFERRED
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of National Center for Education Statistics data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Equaler women were the first to attain the same education level as menDIFFERENCE BETWEEN US WOMEN & MEN 25–34 WITH BACHELOR’S DEGREE OR HIGHER
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
23% of married couples earned college degrees, up from 3% in 1960SHARE OF MARRIED COUPLES WHERE BOTH SPOUSES HAVE A COLLEGE DEGREE
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1960-2010, American Community Survey via IPUMS-USA
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Real female incomes grew much faster than men’s from 1970 through 2000FULL-TIME, YEAR-ROUND WORKERS BY MEDIAN INCOME AND SEX (2013 DOLLARS )
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Women now earn more than their husbands 38% of the timeMARRIED HOUSEHOLDS WITH WIFE EARNING MORE THAN HUSBAND
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Social and Economic Supplements to the Current Population Survey
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
83% of men and 70% of women work today—both have been declining since 2001L A B O R F O R C E PA RT I C I PAT I ON —R O LL I N G 1 2 - M ON T H , P O P U L AT I O N 2 0 – 6 4
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Couples marry 4 years later than their parents and 6 years later than their grandparentsMEDIAN AGE AT F IRST MARRIAGE
Source: US Census Bureau Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Almost 3% of babies are now born to 40+ year-old momsPERCENT OF TOTAL B IRTHS PER YEAR TO WOMEN 40+
Source: Centers for Disease Control, National Vital Statistics Report
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Women delay their first child until age 26, a 1-year delay since the 2009 recession beganWOMEN’S MEDIAN AGE AT F IRST B IRTH
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
National Vital Statistics Report
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Balancer and Sharer dads spend twice as much time with their kids as their dads didAVERAGE NUMBER OF HOURS SPENT ON CHILDCARE PER WEEK BY FATHERS
Source: Pew Research Center
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Single moms have exploded in numbers. Unmarried women give birth to 41% of babiesPERCENT OF B IRTHS TO UNMARRIED WOMEN
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Vital Statistics Report
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Since 1960, single parenting has quadrupled for women and increased ninefold for menSINGLE MOTHERS AND FATHERS
Source: US Census Bureau; Note: Shared custody children are counted at the residence where they live and
sleep most of the time, or where they were staying the day the survey was taken.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
1 in 3 kids now live with just 1 parentSINGLE- PARENT SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS W ITH OW N CHILDREN UNDER 18
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Note: An unmarried partner could be helping raise kids. In joint custody situations, the child is counted
at the residence where they live and sleep most of the time.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The foreign-born population doubled in 20 years to 40 million peopleFOREIGN-BORN POPULATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1900 –2010
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
13% of Americans immigrated here—the most in 90+ yearsFOREIGN-BORN SHARE OF US POPULATION
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Immigration has recently fueled 1/3 of population growthUS POPULATION GROWTH BY B IRTHPLACE
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Economic prosperity in other countries has created the wealth needed to migrate to the USNOMINAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, 2000 –2014
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census,
2013 American Community Survey
More Mexicans now leave America than enter—a huge shiftNET INCREASE IN US RESIDENTS BORN IN MEXICO
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Indians flock to the USNET INCREASE IN US RESIDENTS BORN IN INDIA
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census,
2013 American Community Survey
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Chinese increasingly relocate to the USNET INCREASE IN US RESIDENTS BORN IN CHINA
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census,
2013 American Community Survey
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
48% of recent foreign-born population growth took place in just 4 states1990–2010 SHARE OF US FOREIGN -BORN POPULATION GROWTH
Source: US Census Bureau—1990 Decennial Census, 2010 American Community Survey
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Texas’s welcoming attitude to immigrants has contributed to its strong population growthGROWTH OF FOREIGN -BORN POPULATION BY COUNTY, 2000–2010
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
More than 1/2 of Miami’s residents moved here from another countryHIGHEST SHARE OF FOREIGN -BORN POPULATION, 2009 –2013
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, 2009–2013 American Community Survey
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Immigration suppresses the homeownership rateHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY NATIV ITY
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Immigrants often have more than 2 adults in a home, creating fewer households per adultADULTS PER HOUSEHOLD (FOR POPULATION IN HOUSEHOLDS)
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau,
2013 American Community Survey via IPUMS-USA
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1970s Balancers boast the greatest foreign diversity, with 23% foreign-bornPERCENT OF 2015 POPULATION THAT IS FOREIGN -BORN
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2014 National Projections
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1950s Innovators will drive an explosion of 18 million more people aged 65+ over65+ POPULATION BY DECADE OF B IRTH
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates
and 2014 National Projections
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Nearly double the percentage of 65–69 year-olds work full time today versus 20 years agoPERCENT OF 65–69 YEAR-OLDS WORKING FULL T IME
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Innovators are 7% more likely than the Achievers to be working in their early 60sLABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AT AGE 60 –64
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Life expectancy increases more than 2 months every yearUS L IFE EXPECTANCY AT B IRTH
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Poverty among early retirees has plungedfrom 22% to 9%SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS BELOW THE POVERTY LINE (HOUSEHOLD HEADS AGED 65 –69)
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
By the mid-2020s, twice as many people will turn 65 than in the 1980s and 1990sPOPULATION AGED 65
Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2014 National Projections.
65-year-old population as of July 1 each year
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The traditional “labor pool” will grow much more slowly over the next decadeGROWTH OF US RESIDENT POPULATION AGED 20 –64
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates
and 2014 National Projections
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Each decade born from 1950s through 1980s heads 22 million+/- householdsESTIMATED 2016 HOUSEHOLDS BY DECADE BORN
Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
12.5 million more households will boost the economyHOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY DECADE (MILL IONS)
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Those born in the 1980s and later will drive most future household formationsNET CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS BY DECADE BORN, 2016 –2025 (MILLIONS)
Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Household formations plunged 50%+ after the Great RecessionNET HOUSEHOLD FORMATION, 1965 –2014
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Less than 1/2 of people at their 10-year reunion are married or living with a partnerPERCENTAGE OF 28 -YEAR-OLDS L IV ING WITH A SPOUSE/PARTNER
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950-2000), American Community Survey (2010-2013)
via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The Great Recession ramped up the rate of young adults living with parents or roommatesPERCENTAGE OF 28-YEAR-OLDS LIVING WITH A PARENT/RELATIVE/ROOMMATE
HOUSEHOLD HEAD
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)
via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The headship rate has steadily fallen since 2000, resulting in more adults per householdPERCENT OF POPULATION 18+ HEADING A HOUSEHOLD, AND ADULTS PER HOUSEHOLD
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
1990s Connectors will form the fewest households per person of any generationPERCENTAGE OF 28-YEAR-OLDS HEADING A HOUSEHOLD
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)
via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Marital/cohabitation rates should continueto plunge for 28-year-oldsPERCENTAGE OF 28-YEAR-OLDS LIVING WITH A SPOUSE/PARTNER HOUSEHOLD HEAD
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)
via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1990s Connectors will increasingly live with parents or other relatives later in lifePERCENTAGE OF 28-YEAR-OLDS LIVING WITH A PARENT/RELATIVE HOUSEHOLD HEAD
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)
via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
1990s Connectors live with roommates more than any generation before themP E R C E N TA G E O F 2 8 - YE A R - O LD S L I V I N G W I TH A R O O M M AT E H O U S E H O L D H E A D
O R A S A B O A R D E R / S E RVA N T
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)
via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The 1990s Connectors will create 14 million households from 2016 through 2025NET HOUSEHOLD FORMATION BY THOSE BORN IN THE 1990s, 2005 -2025
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
1980s Sharers should form 4.3 million more households over 10 yearsNET HOUSEHOLD FORMATION BY THOSE BORN IN THE 1980s , 1995 -2025
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Our bullish 12.5 million household-formation forecast assumes low headship rates in comparison to historyHEADSHIP RATES BY AGE
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Homeownership should reach 60.8% in 2025—the lowest since the 1950sHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE (ANNUAL AVERAGE )
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Those aged 55+ head 52% of all owner householdsNUMBER OF HOMEOWNERS IN 2015 (MILL IONS)
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
America lost 2.1 million homeowners from 2007 to 2014ANNUAL HOMEOWNER GROWTH
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
We forecast 5.2 million more homeowners by 2025HOMEOWNER GROWTH BY GENERATION (MILL IONS) , 2016 –2025
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
No more income tax benefits for most home buyersMORTGAGE INTEREST & PROPERTY TAXES IN EXCESS OF STANDARD TAX DEDUCTION
Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of data from S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price
Index, FHFA, NAR, Freddie Mac, Tax Policy Center
*Assumes a married couple with a mortgage equal to 80% of median home price, and a 1.5% property tax rate.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
A 1% change in the homeownership rate equates to 1.2 million owned householdsHOMEOWNER IMPACT ON CHANGE IN HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
At age 38, 50% of 1970s Balancers head a household, and 55% of those own their homeHEADSHIP AND HOMEOWNERSHIP FOR 38 -YEAR-OLDS, 2013
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Homeownership and home equity rise with ageHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY GENERATION
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2013 American
Community Survey 1-Year Estimates via IPUMS-USA
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Falling mortgage rates have boosted home prices and homeownershipMORTGAGE RATES
Source: Bankrate.com, Freddie Mac, FFIEC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
More than 1 in 9 households now rent a single-family homeSINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL HOMES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL HOUSING UNITS
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data from American Community Survey;
years are based on Q3
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Renters remain in place, despite historically low mortgage rates and rising rentsPERCENTAGE OF APARTMENT MOVE -OUTS TO PURCHASE A HOME
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of publicly traded REIT quarterly filings
Historical Average = 17%
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
We expect 27% of 1990s Connector households to own in 2025, and 73% to rentHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE AMONG 28 -YEAR-OLD HOUSEHOLDERS
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data and extensive analysis of
each age cohort.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
We expect 52% of 1980s Sharer households to own in 2025, and 48% to rentHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE AMONG 38 -YEAR-OLD HOUSEHOLDERS
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data and extensive analysis of
each age cohort.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
We expect 63% of 1970s Balancer households to own in 2025, and 37% to rentHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE AMONG 48 -YEAR-OLD HOUSEHOLDERS
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data and extensive analysis of
each age cohort.
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
13.7 million homes will be needed to meet housing demandPROJECTED HOUSING DEMAND, 2016 –2025
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The warm, affordable, pro-growth South will attract 62% of the household growthESTIMATED SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH, 2016 –2025
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Texas will grow faster than any other statePROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2016 –2025
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Construction has shifted SouthSHARE OF TOTAL PERMIT ACTIV ITY BY REGION, 1960 AND 2014
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Building Permits Survey data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Nationally, households grew 27% from 1990 to 2010 five regions outpaced that growthHOUSEHOLD GROWTH RATE, 1990 –2010
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1990 and 2010
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The South grows while the North slows1990-2010 SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH LESS 2010 SHARE OF ALL HOUSEHOLDS
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1990 and 2010
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The South will capture 7.8 million of the 12.5 million households addedPROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY REGION (MILL IONS) , 2016 –2025
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Urban captured 21% of household growth—double its usual capture rateURBAN SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
15% percent of Americans live urban, 21% live rurally, and 64% live suburban2015 US HOUSEHOLDS BY NEIGHBORHOOD ENVIRONMENT
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
9 categories of urban/suburban/rural bring clarity to where people liveHOUSEHOLD GROWTH RATE BY GEOGRAPHY TYPE (2000 –2010)
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Population growth has been skewed to urbanCHANGE IN POPULATION BY AGE, 2005 –2015
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and
2014 National Projections
+4.7 M +10.3 M
20–29
Young Adult Urban Years
55–64
Empty Nester Years
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
The surban™ lifestyle
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Young adults drive much less than their parents didPERCENT OF 20 –24 YEAR-OLDS WITH A DRIVER’S L ICENSE
Source: US Department of Transportation, Highway Statistics
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Both urban and suburban locales will capture a high share of growthSHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY DECADE
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data
Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC
THE FOLLOWING SOURCES WERE USED IN THE CREATION OF THESE EXHIBITS:
Bankrate August 2014 Financial Security Index
Bloomberg
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditures Survey
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Social and Economic Supplements to the Current Population Survey
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Vital Statistics Report
Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics and CDC
Department of Homeland Security
Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
Federal Housing Administration
Federal Housing Finance Agency
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve Board 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances
Ford 2015 Trends, citing Pew Research and BAV Consulting Global Survey
Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation)
Guttmacher Institute
Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport Operating Statistics
National Association of Realtors®
National Institute of Health Care Management
New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Pew Research Center
S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index
Senn High School
Tax Policy Center
Trulia year-end 2012 American Dream Survey
U-Haul.com
US Census Bureau
US Census Bureau December 2014 Population Projections
US Census Bureau Decennial Census, American Community Survey, 2005-2013
US Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections
US Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Single-Family Houses Completed
US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements
US Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 1950-2010
US Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey
US Department of Agriculture
US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
US Department of Homeland Security
US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics
US Department of Transportation, Highway Statistics
US Social Security Administration
Our analysis includes data downloaded from IPUMS, which requests to be cited as:
IPUMS-USA: Steven Ruggles, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series:
Version 6.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2015.
IPUMS-CPS: Sarah Flood, Miriam King, Steven Ruggles, and J. Robert Warren. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series,
Current Population Survey: Version 4.0. [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2015.