Council of Black Minnesotans Community Issues Forum on Educational Disparities June 11, 2009
Demographic changes that are Aging transforming Minnesota · 2016. 6. 6. · Aging is...
Transcript of Demographic changes that are Aging transforming Minnesota · 2016. 6. 6. · Aging is...
-
+
For Senior Community Services
Andi Egbert, Sr. Researcher
Minnesota State Demographic Center
SEPTEMBER 11, 2014
Demographic
changes that are
transforming
Minnesota
Aging
Diversity
Workforce
Health
-
+ What is the role of the
MN State Demographic Center?
Serve as a liaison to the Census Bureau and assist with the decennial census counts
Create MN population estimates and projections
Analyze, interpret and distribute data from the state, U.S. Census Bureau and other sources
Offer data and technical assistance to legislators, all levels of government, organizations and citizens across the state
Monitor trends and help MN to make data-informed decisions
-
+ We love graphs and maps
Source: http://www.buzzfeed.com/katieheaney/youve-been-playing-duck-duck-goose-wrong-your-whole-life
-
+
Major demographic trends
for Minnesota
3 Population Shifts
Diversity & Immigration
Aging & Implications
-
Population Shifts
-
+ QUIZ QUESTION
During the 2000s decade, how many of Minnesota’s 87 counties gained population?
A. 20 B. 30 C. 40 D. 50
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census.
-
+ Population shifts
during last decade (2000s)
Greatest growth in
was in counties that
ring the TC metro,
as well as growth in
a diagonal pattern
across the state
Scott=45% growth!
Sherburne (37%) and
Wright (39%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census.
-
+ QUIZ QUESTION
Since 2010, how many of Minnesota’s 87 counties gained population?
A. 37 B. 47 C. 57 D. 67
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census.
-
+ Population changes since the 2010
Census (2010-2013)
37 counties have gained residents (net) since 2010 while 50 have lost population (losses have been very modest).
McLeod County in central Minnesota experienced the largest loss (-733)
Since 2010, Hennepin has added more than 46,000 residents (most), while Ramsey has added just above 18,000 (second most)
Minneapolis topped 400,000 residents for the first time
Dakota, Anoka, Washington and Scott have added 7,000-10,000 residents apiece, while Olmsted has added just under 5,000 and Carver gained about 4,500
In the next tier of growth, with gains of 1,000-4,000 are Wright, Clay, Sherburne, Blue Earth, Stearns and Beltrami Counties
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 decennial census and 2013 population estimates
-
Source: “CURA Reporter,” Winter/Spring 2014
based on U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census
Population loss
along western
edge of state,
down into
Southwestern
prairies has
been long-
standing
-
+ Growth anticipated by 2025
at the county level
Source: As featured in CURA Reporter
-
Diversity & Immigration
-
+
Source: mncompass.org
50 years of growing diversity in our
region, state, nation
36%
17%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Percent Of Color, 1960-2010
U.S. MN Twin Cities
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census.
-
Black, Latino and Asian
populations growing rapidly
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Populations of color, MN
American Indian
Asian
Black
Hispanic
Two or more races
Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
-
+ Populations of color growing
quickly
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census and population estimates.
-
Populations of Color > 20% in 2000
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
-
Populations of Color > 20% in 2008-2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.
-
+
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
White (non-
Hispanic)
Of Color
Minnesota’s population by
age groups, 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 population estimates
-
+
69,100
25,700
23,900
19,900
15,700
15,300
13,600
13,200
12,600
11,900
10,800
7,400
6,400
6,300
6,100
6,000
Mexico
Laos
India
Somalia
Vietnam
Thailand
Korea
China
Liberia
Ethiopia
Canada
El Salvador
Kenya
Philippines
Germany
Ecuador
MN foreign-born population: Largest
groups by country of birth, 2009-2011
Source: mncompass.org
*
* Hmong represented
*
-
+ MN: Largest growth among Asian,
Black and Hispanic groups by 2030
60,300
223,300
264,900 258,200
84,300 63,800
358,900
419,500
491,700
128,000
American
Indian
Asian Black Hispanic Two or More
Races
2010
2030
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.
-
+ Net migration will become the
major driver of our state’s growth
Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.
Net migration
Natural change
(births-deaths)
-
Aging
-
+ The nation in 1900
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-
+ The nation in 1925
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-
+ The nation in 1950
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-
+ The nation in 1975
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-
+ The nation in 2000
Younger Boomers
Generation X
Millennials
Silent Generation
Older Baby Boomers
G.I. / Greatest Generation
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Digitals
-
+ Minnesota total population in 5-
year bars, 2010 decennial census
250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2010
Female
Male
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census
-
+ How many additional “older adults”
will we gain during this decade?
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center
85 55
71 67 47
91
- - - - -
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)
-
+ This decade and next: Unprecedented increases in MN’s 65+ population
85 55
71 67 47
91
285
335
97 66 56
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
-
+ For the first time in MN history:
More 65+ than school-age by 2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
65+
5-17
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
-
+ Older adults in Minnesota by age
cohort, 2010-2050
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
85+
75-84
65-74
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
The number of older
adults in MN will
double between
2010 and 2030.
-
+ By 2030, more than 1 in 5 Minnesotans
will be 65+, including all Baby Boomers
13%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
% age 85+
% age 75-84
% age 65-74
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
-
+ The coming decades will see
dramatic growth in older cohorts
59
%
26
%
17
%
94
%
10
2%
55
%
62
%
14
9%
15
6%
79
%
11
1%
23
9%
87
% 1
36
%
21
2%
Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+
Expected percentage change in people by age cohorts, between 2010 and given year, Minnesota
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.
-
+ The coming decades will see
dramatic growth in older cohorts
209,000
58,000
334,000
227,000
59,000
219,000
330,000
167,000
280,000 245,000 257,000
309,000 302,000
228,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+
Expected numeric change in people by age cohorts, between 2010 and given year, Minnesota
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
19,000
Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.
-
+ What the Twin Cities 7-county
metro will look like… next year
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex 7-county Twin Cities metro, 2015
Female
Male
-
+
150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex 7-county Twin Cities metro, 2025
Female
Male
What the Twin Cities 7-county
metro will look like… in 11 years
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
-
+
150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex 7-county Twin Cities metro, 2035
Female
Male
What the Twin Cities 7-county
metro will look like… in 21 years
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
-
+
150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex 7-county Twin Cities metro, 2045
Female
Male
What the Twin Cities 7-county
metro will look like… in 31 years
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
-
+ Total 25- to 64-year-olds in MN will
dip by about 100,000 individuals
2
0
1
7
2
0
4
0
-
+ County and
regional
level
differences
in aging
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census,
via MNCompass.org.
-
+ By 2030, only a handful of counties
will not have 1 in 5 older adults
2010 2020 2030 More than 1 in 5 people age 65 or older:
In 22 counties (2010)
In 48 counties (2020)
In 69 counties(2030)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
Explore how your community
compares in our Map & Viz Gallery
http://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsphttp://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsphttp://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsphttp://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsphttp://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsp
-
+ By about 2020, half of MN’s older
adults will live in the 7-county metro
45% 50% 53% 55%
55% 50% 47% 45%
2010 2020 2030 2040
Share of MN's 65+ population, actual and projected,
2010-2040
Balance of state
7-county TC metro
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, MN State Demographic Center projections.
-
+ Higher percentages of older adults
– patterning is very local
Source: Social Explorer
-
+ Higher percentages of older adults
– patterning is very local
Source: Social Explorer
-
+ Aging is (unfortunately)
gender lopsided
Among Minnesotans in their:
early 60s, there are 97 men for every 100 women
late 60s, there are 93 men for every 100 women
early 70s, there are 87 men for every 100 women
late 70s, there are 81 men for every 100 women
early 80s, there are 69 men for every 100 women
late 80s, there are 56 men for every 100 women
90s plus, there are 35 men for every 100 women
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 decennial census.
-
+ Aging: not what it used to be…
Minnesota’s older adults are healthier,
living longer, and working longer than prior
generations
Life expectancy for Minnesotans age 65 now is 20.1
more years (15.6 years in good health)
Variations across racial,
educational, other groups
Minnesota’s Boomers and
older adults volunteer in
record numbers
Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013.
-
+ Older adults projected to remain in
the labor force longer than before
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-69
70-74
75+ 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Projected labor force participation
rates of older adults
Minnesota, 1980-2040
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
-
+ Older adults in Minnesota volunteer
in large numbers
Source: MN Compass
-
+ Healthy life expectancy at age 65 –
Minnesota leads most states
Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013
-
+ Healthy life expectancy at age 65
Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013 Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013
-
+ Healthy life expectancy at age 65
Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013
-
+ Challenges related to our aging
population
Will we have or create sufficient infrastructure for more transportation, caregiving, health care, and social support needs, as health challenges and disabilities increase, especially when children live far away?
Will we be able to finance needed services, especially long-term care? Private and public medical expenses will increase considerably.
Will we have the workers to form a strong, skilled, highly productive labor force as the Boomers retire — for economic growth, tax revenues for needed services, and maintaining a high quality of life in MN?
-
+ Aging brings rising rates of disability
among those living in the community
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, via MNCompass.org. Note: Relates only to the civilian, non-institutionalized population with a serious difficulty in one or more of four basic areas of functioning: vision, hearing, ambulation, and cognition.
60%
40%
20%
-
+ Types of disabilities among older
adults living in the community
18%
15%
12%
7%
5%
32%
7%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, via MNCompass.org. Note: Relates only to the civilian, non-institutionalized population with a serious difficulty in one or more of four basic areas of functioning: vision, hearing, ambulation, and cognition.
-
+ Dementias strongly associated
with advanced age
The number of Minnesotans with Alzheimer’s
disease or other dementias is expected to grow
dramatically:
Most persons with Alzheimer’s are over 65, and the
percent of people with Alzheimer’s doubles every five
years after the age of 65
For persons over age 85, one out of every two persons
has Alzheimer’s or another form of dementia
Minnesotans with dementias expected to double by 2040
Sources: “Preparing Minnesota for Alzheimer’s: The Budgetary, Social and Personal Impacts.” Report to the MN Legislature by the MN Board on Aging, Jan. 2011. http://www.alz.org/national/documents/mn_state_plan.pdf
-
+ Plans to pay for long-term care
MN Baby Boomers, 2010
Source: Transform 2010 Survey, Minnesota Department of Human Services
-
+ Medical expenses rise
considerably after age 65
$1,769 $1,814 $3,230
$6,429
$10,274 89% 85%
76%
89% 96%
U.S., 2010
Average annual expense Percent with a medical expense
Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2010
-
+ Increasingly our demographics
will change demand for services
General Fund Expenditures
FY 2012-2013
K-12
Education
42%
Health &
Human
Services
31%
Higher
Education
8%
All other
areas
19%
Within Health &
Human Services
Medical Assistance
Expenditures: 25% of GF
spending (8.5 billion)
Medical Assistance
Expenditures for the Elderly
and Disabled: 16% of GF
spending (5.5 billion)
MA expenditures include
basic care, long-term care
waivers and long-term
institutional care
Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013.
House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012
-
+
The future
will look
very
different
from today.
-
+ Take-away thoughts on aging
The aging trend will impact everyone, young and old. How
we manage the transition will be important for everyone’s
well-being. Creativity will be necessary!
All areas of the state will feel effects of an aging
population, some places much more acutely
The aging of our state may create fierce debates about
where to spend scarce public dollars
Many healthy years ahead for older adults. How will older
adults actively shape their communities in years to come?
Fewer 45- to 54-year-olds in the coming decades may
change the profile of caregivers, volunteers
-
+ Additional thoughts to consider
Fewer workers relative to older adults puts a
premium on developing, retaining, and
attracting skilled workers — to fuel
continued economic growth and to pay for
needed public services
Poor educational, health and economic
outcomes for our fast-growing populations
of color jeopardize our economic
competitiveness and quality of life for all
-
+
Stay in touch with the
MN State
Demographic Center
-
+
We just launched our new website at
mn.gov/demography
Locate more data, more efficiently
New interactive maps
and data visualizations
Featuring a new blog, guidance
for data users, and more
Follow us on Twitter at
@MN_StateData
MN State Demographic Center
online resources
-
+
Andi Egbert [email protected]
651-201-2474
Questions?
Comments?
Thank you!