Modern Spatial and Demographic Patterns Metropolitan clusters create uneven settlement landscapes
Demographic and travel patterns
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1
Demographic and travel patterns
The use of data and modelling in transport and land use planning
Transport and Population Data Centre
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2Transport and Population Data Centre
Demography and geography
Travel behaviour
Transport infrastructure, services and policies
Strategic transport and land use planning
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3Transport and Population Data Centre
Strategic land use and transport planning
• Objectives (healthy, happy, productive, sustainable etc)
• Managing growth– Where and how to house growth– Employment opportunities– Maximise accessibility to jobs and other
desired/required activities• Infrastructure, services, policies
– Which corridors require capacity?– How best to serve demand for travel
• Infrastructure and services• Demand management• Pattern of land use development
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4Transport and Population Data Centre
Demography and geography
Travel behaviour
Transport infrastructure, services and policies
Strategic transport and land use planning
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5Transport and Population Data Centre
Demography and Geography
• Composition of population– Census
• Sources of change– Births, Deaths, Migration
• Location of change
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6Transport and Population Data Centre
Age and gender, Sydney
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100+
Age
(yea
rs)
Male Female2001 2031
Source: TPDC (2004) NSW State and Regional Population Projections
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7Transport and Population Data Centre
Age and gender, coastal NSW
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100+
Age
(yea
rs)
Male Female
2001 2031Source: TPDC (2004) NSW State and Regional Population Projections
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8Transport and Population Data Centre
Sources of population change, NSW
-40,000
-20,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1985 1988 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Year to 30 June
Per
sons
Overseas migration Interstate migration Births
Deaths Natural Increase Net migration
Source: ABS (various years) Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0)
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9Transport and Population Data Centre
Location of population change, NSW, 2001-2031
Source: TPDC (2004) NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections
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10Transport and Population Data Centre
Location of change, Sydney, 2001-2031
Source: TPDC (2004) NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections
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11Transport and Population Data Centre
Employment change, Sydney, 2001-2031
Source: TPDC (2004) GMR Travel Zone Employment Projections
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12Transport and Population Data Centre
Containment
• Approx one quarter of employed Sydney residents live and work in the same LGA
• This percentage has declined over time from 27% 10 years ago to approximately 25% now
Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work
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13Transport and Population Data Centre
Commercial Centre Employment
Centre 1996 2001 % change
Sydney CBD 192,665 221,396 14.9
N Sydney/Milsons Point 33,056 36,576 10.6
Parramatta 29,542 35,658 20.7
St Leonards/Crs Nest 24,950 26,083 4.5
Pyrmont/Ultimo 17,307 21,594 24.8
Macquarie/North Ryde 18,008 20,361 13.1
Chatswood 17,737 19,317 8.9Source: TDC Journey to Work Data, 1996 and 2001
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14Transport and Population Data Centre
Casualisation of workforce
• Casual employees are at least 20% of the workforce
• Contrary to popular belief, almost half are men
• The growth in casual employees is three times that of growth in employment generally
Source: Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (2002) Casual Work in NSW
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15Transport and Population Data Centre
Demography and geography
Travel behaviour
Transport infrastructure, services and policies
Strategic transport and land use planning
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16Transport and Population Data Centre
Travel behaviour
• Current pattern of behaviour– Journey to work– Household travel survey– Commercial transport study
• Trends in behaviour over time
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17Transport and Population Data Centre
Current travel: JTW to Centres
SYDNEY
CAMDEN
PENRITH
HORNSBY
RICHMOND
LIVERPOOL
MONA VALE
BLACKTOWN
BANKSTOWN
SUTHERLAND
CAMPBELLTOWN
PARRAMATTA
HURSTVILLE
CHATSWOOD
Main roadsHighwaysFreewaysMain Road
Cityrail Network
Employees500+401 - 500301 - 400151 - 30050 - 150
N
EW
S0 3 6 9 12 Kilometers
(c) Map Produced by the Transport and Population Data CentreDepartment of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources
Data Ource 2001 Journey to W ork.
Origin of work trips to selected centres
Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work
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18Transport and Population Data Centre
Current travel: JTW to Centres
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Rest of Sydney SD
Campbelltown
Sutherland
Macquarie Park/Uni
Penrith
Fairfield
Bankstown
Liverpool
Blacktown
Hurstville
Hornsby
Burwood
St Leonards/Crows Nest
Parramatta CBD
Chatswood
Nth Sydney/Milsons Pt
Sydney CBD
Mode Share
Train Bus Car driver Car passenger Other
Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work
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19Transport and Population Data Centre
PT mode share to work 2001
Mode Share 0 - 10 %11 - 20 %21 - 30 %31 - 40 %41 - 50 %Greater than 50 %
Public transport mode sharefor travel to work
2001N
0 5 10 15 Kilometers
Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work
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20Transport and Population Data Centre
CBD Employment and Rail Patronage
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
78
/79
19
79
/80
19
80
/81
19
81
/82
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
CBD Employment
CityRail Patronage
Sydney Buses Patronage
Sydney SD Population
Millions (patronage)‘000s (employment)
Sources: State Transit Authority (Sydney Buses Patronage)State Rail Authority (CityRail Patronage)Australian Bureau of Statistics (Estimated Resident Population)CB Richard Ellis (CBD Employment)
Millions(population)
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21Transport and Population Data Centre
JTW within 500m of rail, Sydney
Mode Live <500m Work <500m All JTW from station from station trips
Train 34% 43% 16%
Bus 6% 15% 6%
Car 41% 32% 69%
Other 19% 10% 9%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work
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22Transport and Population Data Centre
JTW over 2km from rail
Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work
Mode Live >2km Work >2km All from station from station trips
Train 9% 3% 16%
Bus 7% 4% 6%
Car 74% 83% 69%
Other 9% 10% 9%
Total 100% 100% 100%
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23Transport and Population Data Centre
HTS: Reasons for travel(Sydney, Weekday)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Social/recreation
Servepassenger
Shopping Commuting Work relatedbusiness
Personalbusiness
Education/childcare
Other
1999 2000 2001 2002
trips to return home recoded to previous priority purpose
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
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24Transport and Population Data Centre
HTS: Duration of different types of trips
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Commute Other workrelated travel
Social/recreation
Education/childcare
Personalbusiness
Shopping Servepassenger
All trips
Min
ute
s1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
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25Transport and Population Data Centre
Methods of travel(Sydney, Weekday)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Vehicle driver Vehiclepassenger
Train Bus Walk only Other
1999 2000 2001 2002
Unlinked trip legs other includes tax i, bicycle and ferry
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
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26Transport and Population Data Centre
Methods of travel for different purposes (Sydney, Weekday)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Private Vehicle Public Transport Other
1999
2000
2001
2002
1999
2000
2001
2002
1999
2000
2001
2002
1999
2000
2001
2002
1999
2000
2001
2002
1999
2000
2001
2002
1999
2000
2001
2002
Serve passenger
Work-related
business
Commuting Personal business
Social/Recreation
Shopping Education/Child care
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
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27Transport and Population Data Centre
Growth in travel, 1999-2002: who and how?(Sydney, Weekday)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
OtherPublic Transport
Private Vehicle
'99 '00 '01 '02
'99 '00 '01 '02'99 '00 '01 '02
'99 '00 '01 '02'99 '00 '01 '02
'99 '00 '01 '02
'99 '00 '01 '02
'99 '00 '01 '02
<11 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 Over 70
Age group
Trip
s, a
vera
ge w
eekd
ay, S
ydne
y
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
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28Transport and Population Data Centre
Growth in car use per capita: Why?
• Licence holding
• Fringe growth
• Job dispersal
• Women in workforce
• Economic prosperity
• Car ownership
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29Transport and Population Data Centre
Growth in car use, 1991-2001(Sydney, Weekday)
1.4%
2.3%2.2%2.1%
1.8%
1.3%
1.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Persons Households Car driver Carpassenger
Licenceholding
Vehicles VKT
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
Annu
al %
gro
wth
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30Transport and Population Data Centre
Growth in car use, 1991-2001(Sydney, Weekday)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
15-24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+
Age (years)
Population Car trips VKT
Annu
al %
gro
wth
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
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31Transport and Population Data Centre
59%
41%
66%
56%64%
36%34%
44%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Male Female Male FemaleTrips VKT
1991 2001
Change in car use by gender, 1991-2001
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
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32Transport and Population Data Centre
Growth in car use, 1991-2001
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Population Car trips VKT
Full timeworker
Part time/Casual
Student Retired/Agedpensioner
Keepinghouse
Unemployed
Annu
al %
gro
wth
Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys
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33Transport and Population Data Centre
Road freight movements
SCREENLINES NETWORK PRIOR MATRIX
TRIP TABLE
MATRIX ESTIMATIONPROCEDURE
TRIP ENDS
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34Transport and Population Data Centre
TRIPS - Citilabs
C:\
CT
S2
00
1\P
RJ\
01
RO
A0
0D
.NE
T
MV
GR
AF
V 7
. 4
.12
0 500 501 1000 1001 1500 1501 9107 V6 <HV02> BANDWIDTHS L1
TRIPS - Citilabs
C:\
CT
S2
00
1\P
RJ\
01
RO
A0
0D
.NE
T
MV
GR
AF
V 7
. 4
.12
0 500 501 1000 1001 1500 1501 9107 V6 <HV02> BANDWIDTHS L1
2002 Heavy Vehicle Movements (GMR)TPDC Commercial Transport Study (CTS)
Sydney
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35Transport and Population Data Centre
Demography and geography
Travel behaviour
Transport infrastructure, services and policies
Strategic transport and land use planning
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36Transport and Population Data Centre
Transport infrastructure, services and policies
• Road network– Lanes– Speed/flow relationships– Tolls– Parking costs
• Public transport network– Routes– Stops– Timetables– Fares
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37Transport and Population Data Centre
Road and public transport network
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38Transport and Population Data Centre
Accessibility
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39Transport and Population Data Centre
Demography and geography
Travel behaviour
Transport infrastructure, services and policies
Strategic transport and land use planning
StrategicTravelModel
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40Transport and Population Data Centre
Travel behaviour model: Strategic Travel Model (STM)
• Household type model
• Car ownership model
• Licence holding model
• Trip generation
• Joint destination and mode choice
• Route assignment
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41Transport and Population Data Centre
STM Outputs
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42Transport and Population Data Centre
STM Outputs• Traffic volumes• Road speeds• Volume/capacity ratios• Slow roads, slow travel• Rail patronage by line• Rail patronage by section• Station ins/outs• Trains per section• (similarly for bus)• Origins/destinations of
demand using any selected link (highway or transit) or combinations
• Trip length distributions• VKT, PKT• Mode splits• Demand - commuter & non-
commuter • Spider diagrams• Time/space diagrams for
transit• Car travel time contours
from any chosen spot• Shortest paths• Interchange volumes• and more ...
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43Transport and Population Data Centre
STM Outputs• Strategic planning
– Scenario modelling – test relationships/sensitivities– Long Term Strategic Plan for Rail
• Project evaluation– Parramatta Rail Link, Transitways– Western Sydney Orbital, Lane Cove Tunnel, M2-F3– Private sector proposals
• Policy development– Integrated fares– Air quality management
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44Transport and Population Data Centre
DEC airshed modelling of urban development in Sydney
240 260 280 300 320 340 3606200
6220
6240
6260
6280
6300
Lidcombe Bringelly
Richmond
St. Marys
Sydney CBD
Vineyard
W oolooware
Randwick
Campbelltown
Liverpool Earlwood
W estmead
Rozelle
Bargo
Oakdale
Blacktown Lindfield
Camden
Kurrajong Heights
M aximum 1-hour ozone c onc entration20th Dec ember 2000 base c ase
Maximum 109.9 ppb
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
O z o n e p p b
N
240 260 280 300 320 340 3606200
6220
6240
6260
6280
6300
Lidcombe Bringelly
Richmond
St. Marys
Sydney CBD
Vineyard
W oolooware
Randwick
Campbelltown
Liverpool Earlwood
W estmead
Rozelle
Bargo
Oakdale
Blacktown Lindfield
Camden
Kurrajong Heights
M aximum 1-hour ozone c onc entration20th Dec ember 2000 "2026 (70/30)"
Maximum 95.5 ppb
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
O z o n e p p b
N
(a) (b)
240 260 280 300 320 340 3606200
6220
6240
6260
6280
6300
Lidcombe Bringelly
Richmond
St. Marys
Sydney CBD
Vineyard
W oolooware
Randwick
Campbelltown
Liverpool Earlwood
W estmead
Rozelle
Bargo
Oakdale
Blacktown Lindfield
Camden
Kurrajong Heights
M aximum 1-hour ozone c onc entration20th Dec ember 2000 "2026 (55/45)"
Maximum 96.8 ppb
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
O z o n e p p b
N
240 260 280 300 320 340 3606200
6220
6240
6260
6280
6300
Lidcombe Bringelly
Richmond
St. Marys
Sydney CBD
Vineyard
W oolooware
Randwick
Campbelltown
Liverpool Earlwood
W estmead
Rozelle
Bargo
Oakdale
Blacktown Lindfield
Camden
Kurrajong Heights
M aximum 1-hour ozone c onc entration20th Dec ember 2000 "2026 (85/15)"
Maximum 95.4 ppb
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
O z o n e p p b
N
(c) (d)
Max 1-hr Ozone2026 scenarios 20th December 2000
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45Transport and Population Data Centre
STM - uses
Public Transport Mode Share 2021 (am peak)
Assumptions tested
No PTinvestment
Trend PTinvestment
North West Sector 18.1% 24.3%South West Sector 19.2% 24.7%
Sydney Average 22.2% 25.5%
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46Transport and Population Data Centre
STM - uses
• Recent scenario modelling suggests:– Significant inertia in existing system– Price signals rather than infrastructure
more powerful tool– People are very adaptable
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47Transport and Population Data Centre
Demography and geography
Travel behaviour
Transport infrastructure, services and policies
Strategic transport and land use planning
StrategicTravelModel
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48Transport and Population Data Centre
More information:• www.planning.nsw.gov.au/tpdc
Australasian Transport Research Forum 2005• 28-30 September 2005• Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, Sydney
ATRF05ATRF05