ESGC6318 Applications of Demographic Techniques

Assignment 1

1. Discuss the demographic transition theory.

2. At what stage was Singapore in the demographic transition in 1950s, 1980s and 2010? (Please refer to UN Population Division, and check for trend in crude birth rate and crude death rate).

3. The population of Malaysia was enumerated at 23.3 million in 2000 and 28.4 million in 2010. What is the average annual rate of growth of the population during this period? At this rate of growth, what would be the projected population of Malaysia in 2020? Is it reasonable to assume that this rate of growth will continue into 2050? Why?

4. In country Y, the population of 10.5 million is growing at 1.3% per annum, how many years would it take the population to increase to 21 million, assuming that this rate of growth is maintained throughout.

5. Country X has a population of 30 million in 2010, up from 15 million in 1980. What was the average annual rate of population growth?

6. Download the 2010 census report on Basic Demographic Characteristics (item 11 in the free download from DOSM website).

ESGC6318 Assignment 2

1. use the 2010 census report (downloaded in assignment 1 to answer this question)

a) Fill in the blanks for 2010.

b) construct a population pyramid and comment on the shape of the pyramid.

c) calculate the sex ratio for each age (number of males per 100 females) for 201020002010

Age groupMaleFemaleTotal% by ageMaleFemaleTotal% by ageSex ratio

0-41,347,6331,265,1112,612,74411.21238619118833824269578.6104

5-91,364,9841,281,5432,646,52711.41374368129315526675239.4106

10-141,276,3481,215,4292,491,77710.71405294132813327334279.6106

15-191,195,8031,171,2182,367,02110.214519741383720283569410.0105

20-241,050,9161,036,2572,087,173914704401383540285398010.1106

25-29972,668948,3841,921,0528.31427217128380327110209.6111

30-34915,814884,3821,800,1967.71123426100145521248817.5112

35-39866,212838,8321,705,0447.398818992927619174656.8106

40-44764,706722,7921,487,4986.489449287813617726286.3102

45-49604,844563,6831,168,527583435477261716069715.7108

50-54480,261438,607918,8683.970362066401113676314.8106

55-59320,119296,479616,5982.654535351938910647423.8105

60-64274,216276,811551,0272.44163464075308238762.9102

65-69164,943181,782346,7251.52705212676805382011.9101

70-74125,883138,236264,1191.12007742089034096771.496

75+128,082161,712289,7941.22176512618114794621.783

Total11,853,43211,421,25823,274,690100145626381377149728334135100106

Median age23.523.823.626.1926.2026.20

% age 0-14 33.732.933.327.627.727.6

% 65+3.54.23.94.75.45

2. Use the information below (and in Q1) to calculate i) crude birth rate and ii) total fertility rate, iii) plot the distribution of births by age of mother (i.e. age specific fertility rate) using a line chart. iv) what is the sex ratio at birth?AgeNumber of birthsMale birthsFemale births

15-191901898489170

20-24815044198839516

25-281675548662180933

30-341329736880664167

35-39682773518633091

40-441881996519168

45-491618855763

femaletotalAgeNumber of birthsMale birthsFemale birthscrude bith rateAge specific fertility ratesexratio

1383720283569415-1919018984891706.70664747313.7441101107

1383540285398020-2481504419883951628.5580137258.9097532106

1283803271102025-28167554866218093361.80478196130.513794107

1001455212488130-34132973688066416762.57903384132.779805107

929276191746535-3968277351863309135.6079511273.4733276106

878136177262840-44188199651916810.6164406721.4306212105

772617160697145-4916188557631.0068632232.0941812112

1582263948976325295523680830.953306842164.72796107

3. Construct population pyramid for Kuala Lumpur and Kelantan. Compare and discuss the shapes of the two pyramid.

Kuala Lumpur

Kelantan

MaleFemaleMaleFemale

0 - 4 66,516 62,753 73,325 67,172

5 - 9 64,688 60,039 85,364 79,458

10 - 14 59,074 57,134 99,417 92,728

15 - 19 72,019 70,930 101,271 94,062

20 - 24 90,700 92,726 64,917 59,160

25 - 29 96,956 97,027 54,326 46,911

30 - 34 81,546 73,679 44,316 42,985

35 - 39 65,579 59,566 39,601 45,823

40 - 44 54,041 65,136 41,217 47,302

45 - 49 56,831 48,979 41,049 46,002

50 - 54 44,905 40,538 36,516 40,861

55 - 59 34,215 31,219 28,902 30,981

60 - 64 25,769 23,335 24,653 24,604

65 - 69 15,420 15,590 15,132 17,718

70 - 74 11,905 10,376 11,186 12,983

75+ 11,966 13,464 12,506 17,153

Kelantan has higher percentage of population at the bottom of the pyramid while Kuala Lumpur has higher percentage of population near to the middle of the pyramid. This shows that most of the population in Kuala Lumpur are working adults while population in Kelantan are children or teenager. This might due to the fact that Kuala Lumpur provide more job opportunity than Kelanatan.ECGC 6318 Applications of Demographic Techniques

Assignment 3

1. Construct a super-imposed population pyramid for Malaysia for the year 1970 and 2010 (in one pyramid)

Malaysia

19702010

AgeMaleFemaleMaleFemale

0-4 877 838 1 188 1 239

5-9 879 855 1 293 1 374

10-14 718 718 1 328 1 405

15-19 593 603 1 384 1 452

20-24 458 473 1 384 1 471

25-29 353 338 1 284 1 427

30-34 340 327 1 002 1 123

35-39 257 260 929 988

40-44 231 224 878 894

45-49 189 189 773 834

50-54 171 164 664 704

55-59 140 126 520 545

60-64 120 109 408 416

65-69 78 64 267 270

70-74 55 53 209 201

75-79 28 31 131 109

80+ 23 25 96 85

2. Use Malaysia 2000 to run the following tables and interpret. (Note: Enter the dependent variable on top followed by independent variable or variables (enter next if you choose more than one independent variable), and then select column percent.

a. Run frequency tables for occupation (occisco), industry (indgen), Class of worker (classwk) and Sector of employment (empsect).

b. Crosstab empsect by ethnic group (MCI).

c. Crosstab occisco by age group and sex

d. Crosstab marital status (marst) by age group (15 and above) and sex. (Use select age >14 before crosstab).

e. Crosstab educational attainment (edattan) by age group and sex for those age 15 and over.

f. Percent ever married by age group (15 and above) and sex. Plot a bar chart.

3. Run percent completed university (university) by age group and sex. Plot a line chart showing the percent completed university by birth cohort (2000-age group e.g. 20-24 refer to those born in 1976-1980) and sex. Interpret the result.

ASSIGNMENT 4

Use Pakistan DHS to answer the following questions. Interpret briefly the tables.1. Cross-tabulate CEB (recode into 0, 1-2, 3-4 and 5+ and label) by

a) Age group

b) Residence

c) Educate (Respondent's education)d) Huseduc (Husband's education)e) Wealth (Index in quintiles)(Put a to e in the different panels in one table), as shown below:

0 1-2 3-4 5+

Age group

15-19

20-24

.

,,

Residence

Urban

Rural

Education

Primary

Secondary'

Tertiary

etc.2) Cross tabulate CEB (recoded in Q1) by age group and educate.3) Tabulate current (method) by CEB (recoded in Q1)

4) Tabulate type (of method) by Residence and CEB recoded in Q1 above

5) Compare mean CEB (use the original variable) by Residence and Age group (table and chart)6) Obtain the percentage currently pregnant (pregnant) by residence and age group (table and chart)

ESGC6318 Applications of Demographic TechniquesAssignment 5Q1. Refer to Tables 1 and 2 below to calculate/plot/construct for a-k :a) Infant mortality rate (1 mark)

(note the total number of births is the sum of last 2 columns of table 1))b) Neo-natal mortality rate (1 mark)

c) Under 5 mortality rate (1 mark)

d) General fertility rate (1 mark)(for women 15-49)e) Gross reproduction rate (1 mark)

f) Child-woman ratio (1 mark)

(for women 15-49)g) Sex ratio at birth (1 mark)

h) Ageing index (1 mark)

i) Sex ratio by age and discuss (2 marks)

j) A bar chart to compare the percentage never married between males and females by five year age group (20-34) (3 marks)

k) Total fertility rate, and discuss why this is a better measure than the crude birth rate in comparing the fertility level of a developing country and a developed country (3 marks)

Table 1: Population by age, sex, marital status and number of births by age of mother, Malaysia, 2000

PopulationNever married populationBirths by age of mother

AgeBoth sexesMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemale

0-42,612,7441,347,6331,265,111

5-92,646,5271,364,9841,281,543

10-142,491,7771,276,3481,215,42911692

15-192,367,0211,195,8031,171,2181,122,3221,062,7759,2338,503

20-242,087,1731,050,9161,036,257846,439655,92848,90145,632

25-291,921,052972,668948,384495,559267,56584,69179,127

30-341,800,196915,814884,382212,564107,45670,13766,070

35-391,705,044866,212838,832101,85862,96139,55937,042

40-441,487,498764,706722,79254,17242,43812,03911,289

45-491,168,527604,844563,68329,50227,2531,2031,102

50-54918,868480,261438,60717,38517,3338881

55-59616,598320,119296,4798,9608,520

60-64551,027274,216276,8116,2226,028

65-69346,725164,943181,7823,7343,513

70-74264,119125,883138,2362,2112,217

75+289,794128,082161,7122,3672,252

23,274,69011,853,43211,421,258

Table 2: Number of deaths by age and gender, Malaysia, 2000

Deaths

Both sexes MaleFemale

Total1046096014844461

Under 28 days19681059909

Below 1 year295316631290

1-4 years442424641960

5-9838503335

10-14821524297

15-1918901432458

20-2422031705498

25-2922231668555

30-3427202005715

35-3932582381877

40-44414328251318

45-49493631921744

50-54618139602221

55-59720545892616

60-64953957853754

65-691093362694664

70-741247965575922

75-791146355835880

80-84977045355235

85+949541485347

unknown882365

Q2. Use information in table 3 to calculate singulate mean age at marriage for males and females.

Table 3: Distribution of population and never married population by age and sexMaleFemale

TotalNever marriedTotalNever married

15 - 19 1,300,247 1,236,526 1,260,002 1,189,729

20 - 24 1,202,713 934,487 1,196,497 816,751

25 - 29 1,119,222 588,201 1,097,282 415,263

30 - 34 914,954 249,296 872,641 152,252

35 - 39 835,387 132,703 817,411 86,640

40 - 44 784,692 74,687 790,170 51,742

45 - 49 753,266 47,378 711,718 37,756

50 - 54 646,508 32,130 620,171 30,582

55 - 59 509,349 19,707 488,997 21,820

60 - 64 390,883 16,404 384,948 19,197

65 - 69 254,455 12,272 253,366 13,346

70 - 74 189,485 6,311 198,518 7,513

75+ 201,654 14,941 245,410 15,236

Q3. Use the information given in Tables 4 and 5, and the additional information given below, estimate Cm, Cc, and Ci. Discuss the results.Table 4: Proportion married m(a), fertility rate f(a) and marital fertility rate g (a) by age

Age groupm(a)f(a)g(a)

15-190.1030.0540.262

20-240.4660.1630.35

25-290.7410.1720.232

30-340.8440.1360.161

35-390.8560.0840.098

40-440.8470.0380.045

45-490.8330.0060.007

Table 5: Use effectiveness and percentage distribution of methods used

Use effectivenessPercent currently using the method

Female sterilization118.2

Pill0.931.0

IUD0.957.3

Injectables0.75.1

Male condom0.74.6

Lactational amenorrhea method0.70.8

Rhythm/Periodic abstinence0.712.7

Withdrawal0.719.4

Folk method0.70.8

Additional information

Contraceptive prevalence rate = 50% Mean duration of breastfeeding = 7.3 months

In the Philippines, abortion is not permitted under any circumstances and hence the ca value is assumed to be equal to 1.

ESGC6318 Applications of Demographic Techniques

Assignment 6

Use the world population as the standard population, find the age standardized death rate for Japan and Malaysia, using i) direct standardization and ii) indirect standardization. Why is the crude death rate in Japan higher than the world average, and why is the age standardized death rate of Japan lower than that of Malaysia? (Please read methods and materials in demogarphy before doing this assignment)

PopulationNumber of deaths

AgeWorldJapanMalaysiaWorld JapanMalaysia

Below 11383236701018815508976511797620382036

1-4 503 837 409 4 374 527 1 917 982 2 147 624 1 248 724

5-9 607 379 715 5 598 901 2 667 528 713 572418.8394.4

10-14 592 696 184 5 928 424 2 733 224 612 376562734.4

15-19 606 055 968 6 055 616 2 835 706 737 66513631540.6

20-24 617 394 044 6 795 206 2 854 109 989 9332513.22212.8

25-29 559 498 119 7 425 856 2 711 188 1 116 57632462456.6

30-34 503 169 904 8 338 003 2 124 970 1 198 2014319.62737.6

35-39 488 824 970 9 711 318 1 917 446 1 333 35969303089.2

40-44 459 301 644 8 668 379 1 772 480 1 558 75710590.64035.8

45-49 412 114 273 7 940 356 1 606 928 1 943 41114982.85740.6

50-54 352 592 648 7 657 775 1 367 764 2 484 50722180.67783

55-59 310 142 798 8 754 496 1 064 926 3 220 37235806.410124

60-64 234 344 771 9 842 212 824 056 3 969 4735884012896

65-69 176 762 591 8 260 959 537 716 4 566 77484331.215136.6

70-74 143 855 553 6 969 029 409 694 5 458 973114909.217674.6

75-79 101 540 250 5 927 028 239 733 6 187 920163969.419054.8

80-84 64 356 000 4 332 000 120 000 6 000 43021662515353.8

85+ 43 993 000 3 753 000 62 000 8 043 75549879014046

CDR8.39.84.9

ESGC6318 Applications of Demographic Techniques

Assignment 7

Use Depopulation survey to answer Q1-3

1. Calculate the mean remittance received by household heads aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70+ based on the number of children living elsewhere for the total sample. Compare the adjusted mean with the observed mean.2. Construct a scatter plot of the mean remittance received (as dependent variable) and mean number of children living elsewhere (as independent variable) by age of head of household. Comment on the result.

3. Run Multiple Classification Analysis of mean remittance received by district, age of head, number of children living elsewhere. Comment on the result.

4. Construct a scatter plot of contraceptive prevalence rate and mean CEB by wealth index.

Wealth indexCPRMean CEB

Poorest325.4

Poorer444.3

Middle503.5

Richer563.1

Richest622.4

5. A tuition centre recruited 100 students at the beginning of the year and the number that remains at the end of each successive month is given in the table below. Calculate the discontinuation rate and cumulative discontinuation rate.

TimeNumber at the beginning of each monthNumber that discontinueDiscontinuation rateCumulative discontinuation rate

1100

295

393

488

586

684

6. Use data from the following table to construct a life table for males and females, with your own template.

Age specific death rate

AgeMaleFemale

00.003240.00279

10.000240.00019

50.000150.00014

100.000250.00016

150.000620.00021

200.000790.00029

250.000960.00036

300.001420.00052

350.002220.00080

400.003060.00126

450.004390.00189

500.006350.00306

550.009560.00485

600.015050.00781

650.025770.01404

700.043800.02529

750.065770.04834

80+0.160170.13641

Please familiarize yourself with the relationships of all the life table functions.

ESGC6318 Applications of Demographic Techniques

Assignment 8 (Due 6 May, 2015)

1. Fill in the blanks in the following table:

AgenqxIxndxnkxnLxnSxnmxTxex

00.000829310000082.9347770.0524999921.4180.999120.000838342359.783.42

10.0001299917.06511.989157[ ]399638.560.99985580.000038242438.382.49

5[ ]99905.07614.9846382.5499487.920.9998250.000037842799.778.50

100.000299890.09119.9760212.5499400.520.9997250.000047343311.873.51

150.000349999870.115[ ]2.5499263.210.99960010.000076843911.3[ ]

200.000449999835.16744.9157192.5499063.550.99950010.000096344648.163.55

250.000549899790.25154.8695492.5498814.080.99937520.000115845584.558.58

300.000699899735.38269.7903412.5498502.430.99910050.000145346770.453.61

350.001099499665.591109.571892.5498054.030.99847650.00022[ ] 48.65

400.0019481[ ]193.945142.5497295.230.99700610.00039435021443.70

450.004041899362.074401.603152.5495806.36 [ ]0.000813852918.738.78

500.007323198960.471724.69622.5492990.620.98959570.001473357112.433.92

550.013508198235.7751326.98312.5[ ]0.98105940.002722864121.829.16

600.024447596908.7922369.17412.5478621.020.96560910.004952376260.324.52

650.044583594539.6184214.90672.5462160.820.93460540.009121897639.320.07

700.087176990324.7117874.22942.5431937.980.87612160.018231435478.515.89

750.164084982450.48213528.882.5378430.210.77779680.035751003540.512.17

800.291729868921.60220106.4882.5294341.791.12375650.06831625110.39.07

85[ ]48815.11448815.1142.5330768.51x0.1475809330768.516.78

2. Use international migration data (attached) to answer the following questions:

a. Write down the number of international migrants in the world in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2013) -see tables 1, 4, 7 and 10).

b. Of the international migrants in 2013 (Table 10), how many percent have migrated to the developed countries, and how many percent to the developing countries?

c. Tabulate the number of Malaysian emigrants in 2013 by top 5 countries of destination (Hint: read vertically).

d. Tabulate the number of immigrants to Malaysia in 2013 by top 5 countries of origin (Hint: Read horizontally).

e. Calculate the number of net migrants for Malaysia in 2013.

3. Use Migration data to i) estimate the number of internal migrants to Selangor, the number of out-migrants from Selangor, iii) write down the number of in-migrants in Selangor by state of origin, and iv) the net migration rate to Selangor, Note: the population of Selangor was 2659667 in 1995 and 4188876 in 2000.