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DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 2030

19th of September, 2016

2015 DSM Savings Highlights – Public Version

Dubai has set ambitious targets for its DSM Strategy of 30% savings of electricity and

water by 2030

The DSM strategy comprises 9 main programs with specific targets for 2030, supported

by 8 implementation mechanisms

DSM Goal

9 DSM Programs

8 DSM Implementation

Mechanisms

Dubai to become a role model in energy efficiency by implementing cost-effective electricity and water

demand saving measures and developing a green service market

3.

District

cooling

6.

Outdoor

lighting

8.

Demand

response

4.

Standards &

labels for

appliances &

equipment

7.

Power and

water tariff

rates

5.

Water

reuse and

efficient

irrigation

1.

Building

regulation

Institutional setting

and capability building

Policies and regulations

Information systems

Public awareness

Governing by example

Technologies and studies

Financing mechanisms

Measurement and verification

2.

Building

retrofits

9.

Shams

Dubai

In 2015, all DSM programs are meeting initial savings targets in preparation for a

strong ramp-up in the coming years in Electricity

Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis

5.4

4.5

3.7

2.9

2.2

1.61.21.3

1.61.5

2.11.9

1.71.71.5

203020252017

19.0

20162011 20152014 2018

12.0

20202012 2013 2019

Electricity Savings (TWh, 2011 to ’15 actual, 2016 to ’30 target)

Targets Savings

Savings vs.

BAU4.6% 5.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.4%

50% savings from

other programs

Base Case

TWh

Savings from DEWA

Tariff Reforms

Initial savings from DGBR,

ESMA Reguls and Retrofit

… and the same thing for Water

Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis

9.1

6.9

4.8

2.92.22.4

2.83.63.5

13.1

3.43.33.33.53.3

2016 2025

29.047.0

20172014 2019 20202013 2018 2030201520122011

Water Savings (BIG, 2011 to ’15 actual, 2016 to ’30 target)

Targets Savings

Savings vs.

BAU4.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%

50% savings from

other programs

Base Case

BIG

Initial savings from

Water Reuse

Savings from DEWA

Tariff Reforms

At average energy and water tariffs, the DSM Strategy has brought until end of 2015

over AED 4.0 Bil. of cumulative savings to consumers on their utility bill

Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis

Base CaseMonetization of Operational Savings(Million AED, calculated; excl. avoided Capex, excl. investments)

800

700

900

900

4,000

700

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2011 Cummulative2015201420132012

Rationale

• Estimated economic benefits do not include avoided capital investments in generation

capacity and grid expansion

• Net benefits to be calculated by deducting investments and costs of implementing the DSM

Strategy

Electricity and water savings result in about 1 Mil ton of avoided CO2 emissions in

2015, and about 4 Mil ton since the start of the DSM Strategy

Note: Conversion rate of MWh to Tons CO2e with the current power generation mix we have in Dubai grid, the number we use is 1 MWh = 0.46 Ton CO2e

Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis

4,047

955

864

782

672774

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2011 20142012 2013 2015 Cummulative

Base CaseAvoided CO2 emissions due to the DSM Strategy(‘000 Ton of CO2, 2011 to ’15 actual)

All programs today contribute to electricity savings, with a strong uptake of

standards from ESMA and a decreasing impact of the DEWA 2011 tariff review

DSM Program

2014

Savings

GWh

2015

Savings

GWh

2015

Target

GWh

Delta

YoY

(%)

Dev. vs.

target

(%) Comments

1Building

regulations93 156 (2017) +67% +

Savings from DM and Trakhees codes on

906 commissioned buildings

2 Building retrofits 4 12 (2016) +175% +Savings from 27 projects (13 new in 2015)

addressing 27 buildings & facilities

3 District Cooling 89 95 (2017) +7% +Savings from DC efficiency gains based on

data from 4 out of 5 operators only

4Standards and

labels353 550 566 +56% ~0%

Savings from A/C: 535GWh, Washing

machines: 3GWh, Refrigerators: 13GWh

5Water Reuse and

Efficient Irrigationn/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

No electricity savings expected from this

program

6 Outdoor Lighting 9 11 11 +25% ~0%96% savings from RTA, 4% from DM. 85%

from switch-off , 15% from LED

7Change of Tariffs

Rates 1,361 1,293 1,058 -5% +22%

Effect of 2011 tariff review, gradually

decreasing over time

8 Demand Response n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aNo consumption savings expected from this

program (only peak reduction)

Total 1,909 2,116 1,635 +11% +29%

Total as % of baseline 5.1% 5.4% 4.2%

9 Shams Dubai n/a 0.3 n/a n/a n/aGeneration in 2015 from the first 3

projects with installed capacity of 1.1 MW

Grand Total 1,909 2,117 1,635 +11% +29%

BASE CASE

Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis

Water savings see an increasing contribution from the DM water reuse program

(Program 5) and from the DGBR (Program 1)

DSM Program

2014

Savings

MIG

2015

Savings

MIG

2015

Target

MIG

Delta

YoY

(%)

Dev. vs.

target

(%) Comments

1 Building regulations 87 144 (2017) +65%Savings from DM and Trakhees codes on

906 commissioned buildings

2 Building retrofits 0.002 0.002 (2016) +12% Initial savings from 2 reported projects

3 District Cooling n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aNo water savings expected from this

program

4Standards and

labelsn/a (2016)

No data for water savings available at this

time

5Water Reuse and

Efficient Irrigation50 196 (2016) +292%

Initial savings from new irrigation

standards and quantity/time optimization

6 Outdoor Lighting n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aNo water savings expected from this

program

7Change of Tariffs

Rates 3,180 3,103 2,231 -2% +39%

Effect of 2011 tariff review, gradually

decreasing over time

8 Demand Response n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aNo water savings expected from this

program

Total 3,318 3,444 2,231 +4% +54%

Total as % of baseline 3.4% 3.3% 2.1%

BASE CASE

Source: DSM Program Owners, TAQATI analysis

In terms of electricity consumption per account, residential & government sectors show

increase trends(1), while industrial confirms consistent savings

Indexed kWh

per account

(2010 = 100%)

1) Changing consumption behaviors may be due to a variety of factors, including growing wealth, economic development, climate change and limited awareness

Note: Definition of customer types refers to applied contract/tariff. Reported consumption refers to billed consumption (line losses or unbilled consumption not included)

60

70

80

90

100

110

12010% 22% 7.5% 52%

+0.1 -0.9

-12

+7.0 +6.2

8.7%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: DEWA, TAQATI analysis

Price signals impact,

consumption behaviour back to

pre-2011 levels

Power Consumption per Account(MWh, 2010-2015 Actual)

Sector share of total consumption in 2015

Res- Nationals Res- Expats Industrial Commercial Government

As for Water consumption per account, Commercial and Government sectors show

increase trends(1), while Res-Nationals confirms consistent savings

Sector share of total consumption in 2015

1) Changing consumption behaviors may be due to a variety of factors, including growing wealth, economic development, climate change and limited awareness

Note: Definition of customer types refers to applied contract/tariff. Reported consumption refers to billed consumption (line losses or unbilled consumption not included)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Residential nationals Residential expats Industrial Commercial Government

-14 +5.1 +1.7 +5.2 +9.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: DEWA, TAQATI analysis

Water Consumption per Account(‘000 IG, 2010-2015 Actual)

Price signals

impact,

consumption

behaviour

back to pre-

2011 levels

22% 38% 3.3% 27% 9.7%

Indexed IG per

account

(2010 = 100%)

DSCE and the DSM Manager action plans for 2016 are aligned with those priorities

i.

ii.

iii.

iv.

Extend and harmonize green

building codes with FZs

Develop an integrated

DSM awareness

strategy

Support the adoption of

District Cooling solutions

Support the design of the

announced Green Fund

viii.

vii.

vi.

v.

Keep developing

partnerships

at a national and

international level

Reinforce DSM analytical

capabilities, including

data capturing and

predictive analysis

Develop a capability

building study

Launch a working group to

develop an integrated

water strategy for Dubai

2016

Targets

Annual Report for 2015 has been published in Arabic and English, and the

public version has been made available online at www.Taqati.ae

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY

Any use of this material without specific permission of TAQATI is strictly prohibited

Thank You

|

Pag

For clarifications or questions:

Aref AbouZahr

TAQATI | Dubai Energy Efficiency Program

aref.abouzahr@taqati.ae

+971 50 4538996