DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT PRELIMINARY...
Transcript of DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT PRELIMINARY...
DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT
PRELIMINARY STUDY:
TRANSPORT ENERGY USE
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Prof. Dr. Nasrudin Abd Rahim
Consultant
24th January 2017 (Tuesday)
Marriot Hotel, Putrajaya
Prof. Dr. Nasrudin Abd Rahim
Consultant
24th January 2017 (Tuesday)
Marriot Hotel, Putrajaya
• INTRODUCTION
• BASELINE DATA AND SCENARIO STUDIES
SCOPE & BOUNDARY SETTING
• DATA COLLECTION & SOURCES
• PROGRESS UPDATES: STUDY OUTCOMES
• CHALLENGES AND ISSUES
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OUTLINE
INTRODUCTION: DEFINITION
Transportation can be defined as any device used to
move an item from one location to another. Common
forms of transportation include planes, trains,
automobiles, and other two-wheel devices such as bikes
or motorcycles. It is a process of shipping or moving an
item from point A to point B. The field can be divided
into infrastructure, vehicles and operations.
Source: businessdictionary.com
Transport is the movement of people, animals
and goods from one location to another.
Source: dictionarycambridge.org
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INTRODUCTION: TRANSPORTATION CLASSIFICATION FOR DSM STUDY INTRODUCTION: TRANSPORTATION CLASSIFICATION FOR DSM STUDY
Road Rail Air Water
Motorcycle Goods vehicles Electric Train Commercial Ferries Car Electric Vehicles Diesel Train (Domestic only) Commercial (inboard-diesel) Bus Other Vehicles Traditional (inboard-diesel) Taxi Traditional (outboard-petrol)
Land
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BASELINE DATA AND SCENARIO STUDIES
Trends, types and distribution of main fuels for energy used in transportation
sector in Malaysia (2005 to 2014);
Definition of the transport modes and technologies in various sectors, such as,
land (road and rail), air and water;
Indicators include transport activity data, energy intensity data, transport load
factors, and transport mode shares such as:
Vehicle stock by vehicle modes and technology;
Annual vehicle kilometres travelled modes and technology;
Specific fuel consumption (litre/100 km);
Passenger-km and ton-km; and
Engine capacity of the vehicle modes and technology.
Note: Vehicle kilometres travelled are used extensively in calculating energy
fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, and it is always estimated;
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BASELINE DATA AND SCENARIO STUDIES (con’t)
Calculation of fuel energy consumption and CO2 emission in various transport
sectors;
LAND
The data obtained from MOT only highlighted regional variations in the
characteristics of the vehicle fleet across Malaysia for two-three wheelers and
private car (for road transport);
The average annual distance travelled by lightweight vehicles differs by state
in Malaysia.
Note: Variations in the vehicle model, engine capacity, road alternative and
number of vehicle owner, gender, age, geography, age of vehicle and style of
driving, no exact information on distance travelled in rural area and, which uses a
higher proportion of old vehicle. 7
BASELINE DATA AND SCENARIO STUDIES (con’t)
The average annual distance travelled by goods vehicles varies.
• Factors include structure of the economy, geographic size, and
geographic range of trucking operations.
• Heavy trucks travel less distance on average but have the highest
consumption rates.
• Fuel economy tends to be greater for highway driving than for city
driving.
• About 80% of the container trucks will return empty and proper
coordination for return trip is needed. In this baseline study, the annual
distance travelled is based on the stakeholder experiences;
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BASELINE DATA AND SCENARIO STUDIES (con’t)
Any data with duplicate vehicle identification numbers, scrapped or salvaged
vehicle and out of scope vehicles are removed, leaving the record that was
updated most recently.
For freight forwarders, according to FMFF, the movement of containers are
mostly with import and export shipments within the radius of 75 km distance
travelled; though occasionally inter-port movements may be involved but
they are certainly less than a couple of percentage of the total volume.
AIR
For air transportation, the total jet fuel consumed in aviation industry is
available and compiled by the ST. However, it only provides the total jet fuel
consumed without breakdown by sectors or regions.
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BASELINE DATA AND SCENARIO STUDIES (con’t)
WATER
For water transportation, the challenges include accuracy of data, sources of
data, data on trading boats and passenger’s ferries. There are about 4,000
units of boats operating mainly in Sabah and Sarawak that the whereabouts
and actions are not accounted for. Another challenge is that the data is
scattered all over Malaysia under different agencies or ferry operators. The
data were collected from visits to the ferry operators and through website
which is based on assumption.
The amount of subsidised fuel consumed by fishing boats can be obtained
from Lembaga Kemajuan Ikan Malaysia (LKIM). However, this is not taken
into account to the total amount of fishing boats as some of them do not
receive any subsidised fuel. 10
SCOPE AND BOUNDARY SETTING
The scope and boundary of the baseline study comprises of all types of vehicles including land, water and air that were registered with a Department of Road Transport under MOT for vehicle road use, SPAD, DCA, and other related transport agencies.
LAND
All kinds of moving transportation modes (private, public, mass, commercial, freight) will be considered except caravans, tractors, plant and equipment, airport ground handler, vehicles belonging to the defence (military & police) services, infrastructure transport and vehicles with diplomatic or consular plates. Inactive vehicles, scrapped or salvaged cars are also excluded from this study. Unregistered vehicles were not considered in the scope of this study as well.
Foreign cars that fuelled in Malaysia was considered in this study as they consume fuel designated for this country. The fuel consumption by foreign cars figure could be approximately offset by the same amount of fuel consumed by Malaysian vehicles that fuelled in those countries.
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SCOPE AND BOUNDARY SETTING (con’t)
WATER
There were numerous boats (small tourist boats) used for transiting passengers from
the mainland to islands for vacationing, snorkelling, sightseeing etc. It has been
understood that these boats obtained their fuels from the normal petrol stations.
These boats which might or might not fall within the purview of the port authorities,
were not included in this baseline study since there were no specific data available
and the amount of fuel consumption was small.
AIR
Air transportation for domestic flights and water transportation within the boundary of
Malaysia maritime only.
NOTES:
Foreign transport i.e. ships, and airplanes (non-Malaysian registered vehicles) that
refuelled in Malaysia were not be considered in this baseline study. Marine bunkers were
also not included in the study since they were also categorised in a different category i.e.
international consumption.
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Transport type Year Number
of vehicle
Fuel types Fuel economy
(km/L)
Annual Distance
Travel Engine
Capacity Petrol Diesel NGV Electric
Motor Cycle
non- electric
2008 -2014
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ - - -
Collected, NAP 2014
Estimated Survey
2007-2005
Estimated, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
- - - Collected, NAP
2014
Estimated
Survey
Car non- electric
2008-2014
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ - -
Estimated, NAP 2014 &
manufacturers’ specification
Estimated Survey
2005-2007
Estimated, JPJ & MOT
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
- -
Estimated, NAP 2014 &
manufacturers’ specification
Estimated
Survey
Taxi
2008-2014
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
-
Estimated, NAP 2014 &
manufacturers’ specification
Estimated
Survey
2005-2007
Estimated, JPJ & MOT
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
-
Estimated, NAP 2014 &
manufacturers’ specification
Estimated
Survey
Goods Vehicle
2008-2014
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ - -
Survey & info from FMFF
Survey & info from
FMFF
2005-2007
Estimated, JPJ & MOT
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
- - Survey & info from FMFF
Survey & info from
FMFF
Bus
2008-2014
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ - -
Manufacturers’ specification
Estimated SPAD & Survey
2005-2007
Estimated, JPJ & MOT
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
- - Manufacturers’ specification
Estimated SPAD & Survey
Electric Vehicle
2011-2014
Collected, MOT &
JPJ - - - -
Collected, MOT & JPJ
Estimated, NAP 2014 &
manufacturers’ specification
Estimated Survey
2005-2010
No data - - - - - - -
Other vehicles
2008-2014
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ
Collected, MOT &
JPJ - - Assumption Assumption
2005-2007
Estimated, JPJ & MOT
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
Collected, JPJ
- - Assumption Assumption
Train 2005-2014
Collected, MOT & SPAD
- - Collected,
MOT & SPAD
- Collected, MOT & SPAD
Electric train, Collected, NEB, Non electric train
estimated , KTMB
-
Air transport 2005-2014
- - - - - Collected, NEB Collected,
NEB
Ferry 2014 Survey Survey Survey Survey Survey - Survey Survey
2005-2013
Survey Survey Survey Survey - - Survey Survey
Fishing boat 2005-2014
LKIM LKIM - LKIM - - LKIM LKIM
SOURCES OF DATA INFORMATION
Collected data: From main sources i.e MOT, JPJ, LKIM etc.. Estimated data: Estimated and/or calculated from the primary data by using standard formulae or correlations. Survey data: Data based on survey conducted on limited basis. Assumption data: Based on logical and rational basis due to unavailability of adequate information.
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Refer Table 6.3, pp 132
CALCULATION OF FUEL CONSUMPTION
Fuel consumption (in L) = No. of vehicle × Distance travelled by a single vehicle
per year (km) ÷ Mileage (km/L)
Note: Average distance traveled for car 20,000 km per year
Mileage and type of fuel for Car
Engine capacity Fuel type used Mileage (km/L)
≤ 1000cc 100% car on petrol 17
1001-1300cc 100% car on petrol 14
1301-1500cc 100% car on petrol 12
1501-2000cc 100% car on petrol 10
2001-2500cc 50% petrol+50% diesel 9
2501-3000cc 50% petrol+50% diesel 8
3001-3500cc 50% petrol+50% diesel 8
3501-4000cc 50% petrol+50% diesel 8
4001-4500cc 50% petrol+50% diesel 7
4501-5000cc 50% petrol+50% diesel 7
>5000cc 50% petrol+50% diesel 7
Energy consumption by Non-electric Car using different fuels have calculated in the following
way:
Petrol: Energy consumption (in ktoe) = Fuel consumption (L) × 7.67 × 10-7 (ktoe/L)
CALCULATION OF CO2 EMISSION
CO2 emission (in kton) = Fuel consumption (litre) × Emission factor (kton CO2/litre)
The Malaysian standard for CO2 emission factor by Petrol (RON95 and RON97) and Diesel fuels are
provided by Petroleum Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS) and that for NGV & ATF are taken from IPCC.
On net calorific basis (PETRONAS):
Petrol (RON95 & RON97): 70,985 kg CO2/TJ
Diesel: 75,391 kg CO2/TJ
NGV: 56,100 kg CO2/TJ
ATF: 70,000 kg CO2/TJ
Fuel Default
(kg/TJ)
Lower Upper
Aviation
Gasoline
70 000 67 500 73 000
Jet Kerosene 71 500 69 800 74 400
Source: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Fuel Type Default
(kg/TJ)
Lower Upper
Motor Gasoline 69 300 67 500 73 000
Gas/ Diesel Oil 74 100 72 600 74 800
Liquefied Petroleum
Gases
63 100 61 600 65 600
Kerosene 71 900 70 800 73 700
Lubricants b 73 300 71 900 75 200
Compressed Natural Gas 56 100 54 300 58 300
Liquefied Natural Gas 56 100 54 300 58 300
TABLE 3.2.1
ROAD TRANSPORT DEFAULT CO2 EMISSION FACTORS AND
UNCERTAINTY RANGES a
Source: Table 1.4 in the Introduction chapter of the Energy Volume.
Notes: a Values represent 100 percent oxidation of fuel carbon content. b See Box 3.2.4 Lubricants in Mobile Combustion for guidance for uses of
lubricants.
Table 3.6.4
CO2 Emission Factors
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CHALLENGES AND ISSUES
Transport data – lack of data from each transport sector related to
activity data, intensity data and fuel data (especially for commercial
vehicles such as distance travelled, number of vessels travelled, fuel
consumption litre/100 km and cubic capacity of the vehicle).
Lack of historical data.
Estimation of vehicle kilometres travelled – the estimation of vehicle
kilometres travelled is not as straightforward as the traffic flow. Vehicle
kilometres travelled is not measured directly, rather it is always
estimated.
Topography data – not all categories of data based on states are
available (i.e bus, car, taxi, goods and other vehicles are not available).
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CHALLENGES AND ISSUES (con’t)
Data completeness – not all transport sectors were
covered to satisfaction due to technical and data
gaps. Some of the lorries were not registered and
used for some purposes such as for construction
and plantations areas.
Sole agency in charge of country’s transportation
sector on DSM – data for transport scattered and
every data collected for each agency were for
different purposes and did not relate to energy
use.
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CHALLENGES AND ISSUES (con’t)
For air transport, the total jet fuel consumed in aviation
industry is available and compiled by the ST. However, it only
provides the total jet fuel consumed without breakdown by
sectors or regions.
Factors which may influence these variations includes gender,
age, geography, age of vehicle and style of driving. Since
there is no exact information on distance travelled in rural
areas, which use a higher proportion of old vehicle.
stakeholders have agreed that information will be
standardised on assumptions;
Irregular data – record on the energy data with irregularities
data must be verified. 18