DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012 1 Dr R Maserumule...
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Transcript of DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012 1 Dr R Maserumule...
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DEMAND MODELING APPROACHFOR ENERGY SERVICES
MODELING COLLOQUIUM31 JULY 2012
Dr R MaserumuleDemand Modeling Specialist
Department of Energy
Energy Demand in South Africa
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Industry37%
Com-mercial
8%
Transport29%
Agricul-ture2%
Non-specified
6%
Residen-tial
18%
Percentage of Total Consump-tion
Renewables & Waste
33%
Coal37%
Electricity25%
Petroleum Products5%
Residential Usage
Cooking25%
Water Heat-ing
30%Space Heating25%
Lighting15%
Electrical Appliances5%
Residential Usage
This what we collect
This what we need
for the IEP
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South African Context
• Studies on end use once off– Institute Energy Studies (Early 1990’s)– Eskom (2012)– Department of Energy (2009, 2012)
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Three Basic Approaches to Forecasting
• Judgmental: Obtained by asking a group of experts about the behavior of the population.
• Econometric: Obtained by analysing the time series of historical population
• Engineering: Obtained through small scale studies of a controlled population
Hybrid ApproachPhase One: Engineering- Use existing studies on
the use of energy carriers for end use services (Institute for Energy
Studies 1993, Frost & Sullivan 2012,
Department of Energy 2012)
Phase Two: Econometric-Project the demand for
each energy carrier using historical data (DoE-
Energy Balances, Eskom-Electricity Sales)
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Hybrid ApproachPhase One: Engineering- Use
existing studies on the use of energy carriers for end use services
(Institute for Energy Studies 1993, Frost & Sullivan 2012, Department
of Energy 2012)
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Gas; 37721; 12%Coal; 182119; 60%
Electricity; 83965; 28%
HVAC; 2518.95; 1%
Fans; 5037.9
; 2%
Process Heat; 252586.35; 83%
Lighting; 3358.6; 1%Motors; 33586; 11%
Com-pres-sor;
6717.2; 2%
Process Heat39%
HVAC3%
Compressors8%
Motors40%
Lighting4%
Fans6%
Electricity End Use (83695 PJ) Total Energy
Services (303805 TJ)
Total Energy Carriers
(303805 TJ)
Gas End Use(37721 TJ)
Process Heat
100%
Coal End Use(182119 TJ)
Process Heat
100%
Overview of Demand Models (112)Sector Number of Demand Models
Residential (4 sub sectors)•Low Income Non-electrified•Low Income Electrified•Middle Income Electrified•High Income Electrified
22 demand models
Commercial 6 demand models
Industrial (9 sub sectors)•Iron and Steel•Basic Chemicals•Non-ferrous Metals•Rest of Basic Metals•Gold Mining•Coal Mining•Platinum Mining•Other Mining•Rest of Manufacturing
72 demand models
Agriculture 9 demand models
Transport 3 demand models
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Opportunities for Collaboration
• Continuous detailed sector studies on end use– Measure carbon footprint– Opportunities for deploying energy efficiency
interventions
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Hybrid Approach
Phase Two: Econometric-Project the demand for each energy carrier
using historical data (DoE-Energy Balances, Eskom-Electricity Sales)
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Bottom Up ApproachSector/Sub Sector Activity Variable
Residential Total number of households
Commercial Commercial floor space
Agriculture Tons of agricultural output
Iron and Steel Tons of iron and steel
Chemical Tons of chemical
Non-ferrous Metals Tons of non-ferrous metals
Rest of Basic Metals Tons of output for the remaining metals
Gold Mining Tons of gold
Platinum Mining Tons of platinum
Other Mining Tons of other mining output
Rest of Manufacturing Tons of production for total manufacturing
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Opportunities for Collaboration• Common dataset for historical energy
consumption– DoE energy balances– Eskom electricity sales– Other data sets
• Common dataset for macroeconomic data• GDP growth• Activity variables
– Population (total number of households)– Physical Production (tons of coal, tons of gold)
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THANK YOU
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