Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational...
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Transcript of Demand Forecasting & Demand Management Stephen Simpkin Zenith McIntyre-Allen Organisational...
Demand Forecasting & Demand Management
Stephen Simpkin
Zenith McIntyre-Allen
Organisational Intelligence
30th January
LARIA East meeting
Essex County Council’s strategy for Transformation:
“Commissioning outcomes based on evidence, in order to protect the most
vulnerable, enable the economy to grow and promote quality of life for Essex residents.”
~ Joanna Killian, Chief Executive
Organisational Intelligence
Why?
• We believe that there will be increased demand for many of our services
• We know that with our current approach we cannot afford to continue to fund services at the same level
• We need the evidence to determine how we prioritise our spending
• We will have a consistent approach to visualising the future in Essex
Organisational Intelligence
4
Demand Forecasting
Population now
Future population
Translate into service take-up
Consider demographic, policy and technological changes
Demand Management
Target Preventative Services
Target Early Interventions
What works / Best Practice
Design innovative interventions
Redirecting / Saying no
Predicting Future Demand & Potential Stressors in
ProvisionPlans to mitigate demand
Analyse Plan
Conventional WisdomGather clear robust evidence that backs-up (or dispels) myths or ‘what we think we know’.
Organisational Intelligence
420,00 babies will
be born
International migration will account for 6% of
population growth compares to internal UK
migration, 72%
Population will grow by 20%
Number of over 85s will
grow by 175%
Working age population will grow by 5% compared to 40% growth among
non-working age
2m people will migrate
to Essex
Over the next 25 years in Essex…
Uttlesford to grow at the fastest rate,
32%
Over 65s to account for 1/3 of the population
Adult Social Care forecasts
Demand Forecasting application
Organisational Intelligence
Adult Social Care – Conventional Wisdom
“Older people population is growing – our services will not be able to cope with the anticipated increase!”
Organisational Intelligence
Adult Social Care – Conventional Wisdom
AIM: Gather clear robust evidence that backs-up (or dispels) myths or ‘what we think we know’
Organisational Intelligence
Reasons for revising forecasts
• Committed to ongoing refresh of forecasts (due to changing environment, health needs, policies, etc)
• As more data (and research) becomes available we can continually fine-tune forecasts
• Attempt a consistent approach to demand forecasting• Confidence in forecasted growth rates• Start from the most informed position possible
Organisational Intelligence
Methodology
Historically demand forecasting models are either ‘Prevalence’ based or ‘Trend’ based
We created a composite model for 4 cohort of Adult Social Care service use (Older People, Mental Health, Learning Disability and Physical and Sensory Impairment)
• Population baseline > Projections > Turning projections into needs groups > Turning needs groups into service use > Informing MTRS and other demand management activities
Organisational Intelligence
Impact
• Revised forecasts broadly reflective of previous forecasts• Able to identify key growth areas/cohorts• Clear and consistent methodology used (which can be easily
updated)• Using revised methodology we determined that we were
previously potentially overestimating the growth of TWO Adult Social Care cohorts
• Adopting revised forecasts into budget tool reduced forecasted spend
Organisational Intelligence
Organisational Intelligence
Crossover with Demand Management
Once future service demand is estimated, there may be scope to attempt to mitigate this demand. Demand management may be possible through:• Changes to existing initiatives (such as targeting preventative
services to the cohorts/geographies that will benefit most);• Early intervention identification (using information available to us
to implement interventions before it is too late);• Best practice learning (what is working elsewhere and can this
be replicated), or;• Design of innovative interventions.
Organisational Intelligence
Next steps• Applying this approach to other areas of Essex County Council activity,
e.g. forecasting pupil numbers, aspects of health/social care integration, place issues such as housing, etc.
• Potential areas for Demand Forecasting/Management:
Organisational Intelligence