Dissolution Control of Mg by Cellulose Acetate−Polyelectrolyte Membranes
Demand Cellulose Acetate
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Transcript of Demand Cellulose Acetate
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Chemical Cellulose: Supply-Demand Outlook
Richard Brice
-
What is chemical cellulose
Chemical Cellulose or High Purity Cellulose:
Dissolving Pulp (DP) (80%):
Dissolving woodpulp (DWP) Bamboo pulp Transformed or modified paper pulp
Cotton linter pulp (CLP) (20%)
-
How chemical cellulose demand was met in 2011
DWP
Transformed Paper Pulp
CLP
Non-wood fibre pulp
Chemical cellulose demand = 5.4 milion tonnes
-
And what is it used to make
Commodity Grades Viscose staple Viscose filament, lyocell, cellophane(film) & sponges
Speciality Grades Acetate tow as well as fibre, film & plastic Ethers MCC Nitration (hi & low nitrogen nitrocellulose) High strength (tyre yarn & food casings)
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Demand and supply have not been in balance
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Glo
bal D
WP
Dem
and/
Capa
city
('0
00
ton
nes
)
Global DWP Capacity Temporarily Curtailed Capacity Global DWP Demand
-
Leading to feast and famine in recent years
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Ray
on
G
rade
DW
P &
CLP
Pric
e
($ pe
r to
nn
e)
Rayon Grade DWP Rayon Grade CLP (exl VAT)
-
Outlook for Chemical Cellulose Demand
-
Viscose staple is the principal cellulosic product
Viscose Staple 64%
Other Commodity
9%
Acetate 12%
Ethers 10%
Nitration 3%
High Strength
2%
Viscose staple is the principal product made from high purity cellulose.
In 2011 viscose staple production accounted for:
- 64% of chemical cellulose demand
- 69% of DWP demand
- 62% of CLP demand
-
Demand for chemical cellulose is set to continue to grow strongly
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Chem
ical
Ce
llulo
se D
eman
d ('0
00 to
nn
es)
Commodity Grades Speciality Grades
-
Chemical cellulose demand growth is being driven by the rise in viscose staple output
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chem
ical
Ce
llulo
se D
eman
d ('0
00 to
nn
es)
Viscose Staple Viscose Filament Lyocell Other
-
And much of this rise in viscose staple output comes from China
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chem
ical
Ce
llulo
se D
eman
d ('0
00 to
nn
es)
West Europe India Asean China Other
-
Aided by a large increase in Chinese viscose staple capacity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
-on
-year C
apacity
Ch
ange (%)
Capa
city
(19
80 =
100)
Nameplate Capacity (2008=100) Year-on-year Capacity Change (%)
-
China defines much of the global chemical cellulose & DWP market
65% of production of cellulosic derivatives is made up of viscose staple
60% of that production takes place in China
-
Even so viscoses share of Chinese MMF output is small
Chinese production of man-made fibres has risen five-fold between 2000 and 2011 to 28.6 million tonnes.
Polyester is the dominant fibre with staple accounting for 29% and filament 61% of production in 2011.
Viscose staples share is 6%.
Source: PCI Fibres Red Book
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Fibr
e Pr
odu
ctio
n ('0
00 to
nn
es)
Nylon 6 Staple Nylon 6 Filament Nylon 66 Staple Nylon 66 Filament Polyester Staple Polyester Filament Viscose Staple Viscose filament
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At the same time Chinas share of global mill consumption of MMF has grown appreciably
China share of global fibre mill consumption has reached over 50% and is set to top 54% by 2020.
The countrys share of MMF uptake has risen from 28% in 2000 to 57% in 2010 and set to reach 57% in 2020.
But the share of cotton consumption peaked at 42% in 2010 and is set to fall to 36% by 2020.
Source: PCI Fibres Red Book
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Wo
rld M
ill C
on
su
mpt
ion
('0
00 to
nn
es
)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70% Chin
a's
Sh
are
of M
ill C
on
su
mp
tion
(%)
Cotton Manmade Fibres All FibresChina's share cotton China's share MMF China's share all fibres
-
Textile sales in Europe and USA have been hit and this is impacting Chinas industry
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2005
=10
0
USA EU-27 Euro-zone After strong growth between 2005 and 2008, textile sales have been harmed by economic turmoil in both the USA and Europe.
Sales in both markets now flat or falling and this is impacting demand for textiles exported from China.
USA: Indexed & deflated seasonally adjusted apparel retail sales at clothing stores (excludes apparel sales at general merchandise and department stores) EU-27: Indexed & deflated seasonally adjusted retail sales (excludes motor vehicle sales)
Source: US Bureau of the Census & Eurostat.
-
High Chinese cotton reserve price means that viscose staple price is now lower in China
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2010 2011 2012
US $
per
kg
Viscose Staple Cotton (328) Viscose Staple-Cotton Differential Cotton A-Index
Outside China cotton is cheaper than viscose staple but viscose output and demand has stayed buoyant.
Low cotton price was the case in China up to 2010.
But since October 2010 the price of viscose staple has consistently been below the price of cotton apparently boosting viscose demand.
-
Outside China Lenzing & Birla have boosted their share of the market
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008 2011 2012
Shar
e o
f Glo
bal V
isco
se S
tapl
e Ca
paci
ty
(exl. C
hin
a) (%
)
Lenzing Birla Other Viscose Staple Capacity
Source: Lenzing & Birla publications & author estimates
-
Much slower growth in output of cellulosic products made from speciality grades
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Chem
ical
Ce
llulo
se D
eman
d ('0
00 to
nn
es)
Acetate Tow Other Acetate Ethers MCC Nitrocellulose High Strength
-
Outlook for DWP Supply
-
High DWP prices in Q4 2010 & Q1 2011 encouraged a surge of new DWP projects
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Ray
on
G
rade
DW
P ($
per
ton
)
-
Substantial new capacity (mill conversions) added between 2011 and 2013
Canada Fortress Speciality Cellulose Thurso (Quebec) Brazil Cambar Paper Cambara
Czech Rep. Lenzing (Biocel Paskov) Paskov Austria Schweighofer Fiber GmbH Hallein
Sweden Sdra Cell Mrrum
Sweden Vida Paper Lessebo
Finland Stora Enso (Enocell) Uimaharju China 7 mills
Total Additional Capacity 1.9 million tonnes
-
And more scheduled to come on-stream by 2016
Canada Birla Terrace Bay (Ontario) Canada Fortress Speciality Cellulose Lebel-sur-Quevillon (Quebec) Canada Paper Excellence Prince Albert (Saskatchewan) USA Sappi Cloquet Cloquet (Minnesota) Laos Birla
China
Japan Nippon Paper Kushiro
South Africa Sappi Ngodwana Nelspruit (Mpumalanga)
Total Additional Capacity 1.8 million tonnes
-
Along with capacity expansions at current producers
Canada Tembec Tmiscaming (Quebec) USA Buckeye Technologies Perry (Florida)
USA Rayonier Jesup Jesup (Georgia)
Sweden Domsj rnskldsvik
Austria Lenzing Lenzing
Japan Nippon Paper Gotsu
Total Additional Capacity 0.35 million tonnes
-
This will nearly double capacity between 2011 and 2015/16
million tonnes
New converted/greenfield capacity 1.9
Anticipated converted/greenfield capacity 1.8
Capacity expansions 0.35
Total additional capacity 4.0
-
Much of the growth in DWP capacity is in the established developed markets
New capacity from 2011 to 2016
N Am: 1.5mn tons
W&C Eur: 0.9mn tons
China: 0.9mn tons
Others: 0.7mn tons
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
DW
P Ca
paci
ty ('0
00 to
ns
per
ann
um
)
N. America S. America W&C Europe East Europe China India Other Asia South Africa
-
Much of this new capacity will be for commodity grade DWP
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
'000
ton
nes
Commodity DWP Capacity Speciality DWP Capacity
-
Other sources of chemical cellulose
Cotton linter pulp Little or no change in supply cotton linter supply
constrained
Bamboo pulp At least three bamboo pulp mills in China
Other sources - transformed paper pulp Used as low ost extender up to % in lends
with DWP because of quality issues. Current DWP
prices offer little or no incentive to use this pulp.
-
As a result, substantial excess capacity is anticipated
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Glo
bal D
WP
Dem
and/
Capa
city
('0
00
ton
nes
)
Global DWP Capacity Temporarily Curtailed Capacity Global DWP Demand
Capacity utilisation assumed to be 95%
-
Especially, excess capacity for commodity grade DWP
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Co
mm
odity D
WP
Cap
acity ('000 to
nn
es) Ch
emic
al Ce
llulo
se D
eman
d ('0
00 to
nnes
)
Viscose Staple DWP Demand Other Commodity DWP Demand Commodity DWP Capacity
Capacity utilisation assumed to be 95%
-
But much will depend on the growth in viscose staple output in China
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chem
ical
Ce
llulo
se D
eman
d &
Com
mo
dity
D
WP
Capa
city
('0
00 to
nn
es)
Commodity DWP Capacity VSF Forecast VSF Dmnd (+10% pa) VSF Dmnd (+15% pa) VSF Dmnd (+20% pa)
Capacity utilisation assumed to be 95%
-
With new speciality DWP capacity coming on-stream surplus capacity anticipated
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600 Speciality
DW
P C
apacity
('000 ton
nes)
Spec
ialit
y D
WP
Dem
and
('0
00 to
nn
es)
Speciality DWP Demand Speciality DWP Capacity
Capacity utilisation assumed to be 95%
-
Summary Market currently oversupplied, a situation that could persist
beyond 2015.
This oversupply has stemmed from investment in DWP capacity (notably in mill conversions) although the contribution from the new capacity in China is uncertain (but it will overhang the market).
Other sources of chemical cellulose not expected to make a notable contribution.
As far as the supply/demand position is concerned much will depend on the growth in viscose staple production inside and outside China.
Outside China viscose staple demand has stayed buoyant, aided by the growing focus on speciality grades.
Within China high cotton prices and rapid capacity expansion has led to high growth in viscose staple output.