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Delivering solar forecasts to AEMO:benefits, lessons learnt, best practices

Matthew Jeppesenmjeppesen@proaanalytics.com

Victor Depoortervdepoorter@proaanalytics.com

2proa.energy

Solar forecasts help businesses to understand and manage solar

Solar generation is variable

What will happen over:the next minute?5 minutes? 3 hours?7 days?

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Integration

Better information for other generators & system operators (e.g. AEMO, PWC, Horizon) to make informed decisions.

Operations

Reduce costs for solar farms, improve operations and storage recharge & discharge.

National Electricity Market

Solar (and wind) farms self-forecast for dispatch (5 mins ahead).

Northern Territory

Solar forecasts for PWC GPS (esp. 0—30 mins ahead).

Forecast benefits

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NEM business case

Forecast errors determine solar farm Causer Pays Regulation FCAS costs.

i.e. the solar farm’s share of the cost of maintaining NEM frequency near 50 Hz

40 × increase since 2014:

Now +$500k / year for 100 MW solar farm (using AEMO forecasts)

Professional NEM solar farm self-forecasting services to reduce these costs are commercially investable

2019$60M

(to August)

2014$2M

NEM Mainland Frequency Regulation Costs

5proa.energy

Australian company founded in 2016 offers state-of-the-art solar forecasting, energy analytics, and weather monitoring services.

About us – Proa

Selected projects:

• NEM solar farm forecasts including Tailem Bend Solar Farm – first to submit solar self forecasts to AEMO

• Leads ARENA project at other NEM scale solar farms

• SWIS rooftop PV forecasts AEMO

• Onslow Renewable Energy Project for Horizon Power

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Industry memberships

Clients and partners

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Solar forecasts are needed for …

Customised orientation, inverter clipping, shading

Single systems

Solar farms

Distributed clusters(VPP, network, region)

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Solar forecasting best practices

Live data

Satellite

Numerical forecasts

Skycam

Proaoptimalforecast

Optimal combination of multiple forecasts

30 seconds up to 7 days ahead

Updated every 30 seconds to 5 minutes

SCADA integration (HARD Software & Modbus / DNP3)

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Night IR vision

Visible light only – black sky With Night IR vision

Crucial to forecast 3 to 5 hours before sunrise

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Skycam forecasts for solar farms Speciality:0–20 mins

Ahead

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Lessons learnt – first to submit solar self forecasts to AEMO

Partnership between asset owners, asset managers, and solar forecasting provider

Careful planning of equipment installation and SCADA data integration

Deep understanding of NEM processes and procedures

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Is a PV system meeting its performance guarantee?

• Professional-grade weather stations.

• State-of-the-art algorithms to monitor performance

• Identify and fix problems

• Give asset owners peace of mind

With many companies installing large PV systems (100 kW—many MW), critical to ensure financial return on investment

Solar PV performance monitoring

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• Solar forecasts help businesses understand and manage solar generation – no matter how solar affects their business

• Grid integration, operations, battery dispatch, VPP control

• National Electricity Market: reduce Causer Pays FCAS costs with professional solar forecasting services

• Northern Territory: solar forecasts combined with battery storage are crucial for PWC GPS

Summary

For more information:

inquiries@proaanalytics.com

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Thank youQuestions?

Victor DepoorterMatthew Jeppesen

vdepoorter@proaanalytics.commjeppesen@proaanalytics.com

16proa.energy

Multiple integration options:

• API https (GET & POST)

• SFTP

• Modbus TCP (Solar farm SCADA)

Multiple data formats:

• JSON

• CSV

• netcdf / HDF5

Custom options available

Data integration

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Forecast modulesModule Horizon Resolution Update

frequency

Components

Intra-hour 0–30

mins

30 secs 30 secs Skycam CMV

Live data

Satellite CMV

Intra-day 0–24

hours

5 mins 5 mins Satellite CMV

NWP (single)

Intra-week 0–7 days 5 mins 5 mins NWP (multiple)