DELIVERING FOR ALL VICTORIANS€¦ · to fully fund and make North East Link a reality > $6.6...
Transcript of DELIVERING FOR ALL VICTORIANS€¦ · to fully fund and make North East Link a reality > $6.6...
DELIVERING FOR ALL VICTORIANSVICTORIAN BUDGET 19/20
TIM PALLAS MPTREASURER OF VICTORIA
31 MAY 2019
VICTORIA’S CONTRIBUTION TO NATIONAL GROWTH, SELECTED INDICATORS
VICTORIA’S ECONOMY IS POWERING THE NATION
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
GSP/GDP Public demand Employment Full-time employment
per c
ent
1990-91 to 2013-14 2014-15 to 2017-18
Victoria's share of Australian GDP, 2017-18
PRIVATE AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT CONTRIBUTION TO VICTORIA'S REAL GSP GROWTH
INVESTMENT IS BOOSTING GROWTH
2
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
Average 0.9ppt
Average 0.1ppt
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Note: Excludes dwelling investment
CUMULATIVE VICTORIAN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SINCE NOVEMBER 2014
MORE THAN 450 000 JOBS CREATED SINCE 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
3
0
100
200
300
400
500
Nov-2014 Nov-2015 Nov-2016 Nov-2017 Nov-2018
Empl
oym
ent (
'000
)
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY, 2013-14 TO 2017-18
-20 0 20 40 60 80
Wholesale TradeMining
UtilitiesFinancial
ICTAdministrative services
ManufacturingAgricultureReal estate
Public administrationArts
Other servicesTransportEducation
Retail TradeProfessional and technical services
HospitalityHealth
Construction
persons '000
GROWING JOBS ACROSS INDUSTRIES
4Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
VICTORIA’S PARTICIPATION RATE, TREND
MORE PEOPLE ARE ENTERING THE LABOUR FORCE
5
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Per c
ent
Victoria AustraliaSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics
FORECASTS OF VICTORIA’S REAL GSP AND REAL GSP PER CAPITA
BOOSTING LIVING STANDARDS FOR VICTORIANS
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Treasury and Finance
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
per c
ent
Real GSP per capita growth Real GSP growth
6
GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
RECORD LEVELS OF INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
Source: Department of Treasury and Finance
7
Average GII, 2005-06 to 2014-15, $4.9 billion
Average GII, 2015-16 to 2018-19, $9.6 billion
Average GII, 2015-16 to 2018-19, $13.4 billion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22
$ bi
llion
OPERATING RESULT AND NET DEBT
STRONG FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Source: Department of Treasury and Finance
8
1.2
2.7 2.7 2.31.1 1.0 1.5
3.94.9
6.0 5.83.8 4.6
5.1
5.1
8.3
9.5 9.8 10.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 2022-23
per c
ent o
f GSP
$ bi
llion
Operating result (LHS) Historical net debt to GSP (RHS) Projected net debt to GSP (RHS)
Budget and forward estimates
INFRASTRUCTURE SHARE VS POPULATION SHARE (COMPARABLE STATES) FIVE YEARS TO 2022-23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
NSW VIC QLD WA SA
Population Share Infrastructure Share
VICTORIA IS MISSING OUT ON A FAIR SHARE
Sources: 2019-20 Commonwealth Budget; Department of Treasury and Finance.
9
This year’s Budget provides $348 million in tax relief, including:
> $173 million to cut the regional employer rate of payroll tax from 50 per cent to 25 per cent of the metropolitan rate by 2022-23
> $87 million to lift the payroll tax-free threshold to $700 000 by 2022-23
> $69 million to provide a 50 per cent discount on stamp duty for commercial and industrial properties transactions in regional Victoria by 2022-23
> $7 million for expanding the payroll tax exemption to all types of parental leave
CREATING JOBS AND WORKING WITH BUSINESS
10
$246 million
$745 million
$348 million
0
500
1,000
$ m
illio
n
2011-12 to 2014-152015-16 to 2018-192019-20 Budget
TOTAL BUSINESS TAX CUTS
TAXATION AND ROYALTY REVENUE PER CAPITA
VICTORIA’S TAX SETTINGS REMAIN HIGHLY COMPETITIVE
Sources: Department of Treasury and Finance, Interstate Budget and Budget Update 11
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
2017
-18
2018
-19
2019
-20
2020
-21
2021
-22
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
WA
TAS
NT
ACT
DELIVERING BETTER SERVICES
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The 2019/20 Budget includes $11.4 billion in output commitments:> $882 million to kickstart the rollout of three-year-old kinder for every Victorian child
> $545 million to expand Solar Homes, as part of a $1.3 billion investment over 10 years, to reach 770 000 homes
> $322 million to begin the rollout of free dental for students at our government schools
> $235 million for court improvements across Victoria, including the redevelopment of Bendigo's law courts
> $218 million to make our schools more inclusive, with more funding to support children with disability and additional needs
> $185 million to continue implementing the Royal Commission’s recommendations
> $173 million to make sure more Victorians get the help they need
> $109 million to support Aboriginal Victorians
> $58 million to expand our School Breakfast Clubs and make sure more Victorian kids are learning on a full stomach
INFRASTRUCTURE VICTORIANS NEED
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The 2019/20 Budget includes a number of capital commitments:
> $15.8 billion to fully fund and make North East Link a reality
> $6.6 billion to remove another 25 of our most dangerous and congested level crossings, with 75 crossings gone for good by 2025
> $3.4 billion to transform the suburban train network, delivering a massive upgrade to the Sunbury Line, duplicating the Cranbourne Line and Stage Two of the Hurstbridge Line
> $1.8 billion to increase capacity across the Victorian prison system
> $1.8 billion to keep building, upgrading and modernising schools across Victoria
> $1.5 billion total investment for the new Footscray Hospital
> $209 million to build 1 000 new public housing properties across our state
INVESTING IN EVERY CORNER OF THE STATE
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DELIVERING FOR ALL VICTORIANSVICTORIAN BUDGET 19/20
TIM PALLAS MPTREASURER OF VICTORIA
31 MAY 2019