Deliverable 2.2 Scenario descriptions for active ... · Ankur SRIVASTAVA, David STEEN (Chalmers)...

Coordinating entity: Chalmers University of Technology

Internet: http://united-grid.eu

Email: [email protected]

This project has received funding from the European

Community’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme under

grant agreement 773717

Integrated cyber-physical solutions for intelligent distribution grids

with high penetration of renewables

Project Name: UNITED-GRID

Grant Agreement: 773717

Project Duration: November 2017 – April 2021

Work Package: WP2 - Scenarios and pathways toward future intelligent distribution grids

Lead Beneficiary: RISE

Authors: Tuan TRAN, Malek DAMAJ, Mouloud GUEMRI (CEA)

Co-authors: Muhammad BABAR (TU/e) Joni ROSSI (RISE) Ankur SRIVASTAVA, David STEEN (Chalmers)

Due Date: 30/04/2019 (M18)

Deliverable ready for review 29/03/2019 by CEA

Deliverable reviewed: 07/04/2019 by RISE, 26/04/2019 by UNITED-GRID Review Board and 15/05/2019 by Chalmers

Submission Date: 21/05/2019 (M 19)

Deliverable Status: Final

Deliverable Type: R (Report)

Dissemination: Public

Deliverable 2.2

Scenario descriptions for active

distribution grid developments

Ref. Ares(2019)3327696 - 21/05/2019

http://united-grid.eu/

mailto:[email protected]

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Community’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme

under grant agreement 773717

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Version history

Version Date Author Comments

0.1 04/02/2019 Malek DAMAJ Outline

0.2 11/02/2019 Malek DAMAJ First draft

0.3 20/02/2019 Malek DAMAJ Updated outline and draft

0.4 05/03/2019 Tuan TRAN Mouloud GUEMRI Malek DAMAJ

Updated draft

0.5 12/03/2019 Mouloud GUEMRI Updated draft

0.6 21/03/2019 Malek DAMAJ Updated draft


Draft ready for review


Final Draft

1.0 26/04/2019 Malek DAMAJ Final version

1.1 15/05/2019 Malek DAMAJ Updated with assessment by country

Deliverable abstract

This report presents the work of collecting near future (2025-2035) scenarios influencing the need and

design of future intelligent distribution grids for different European markets: France, Netherlands and

Sweden. The capabilities required by the DSOs to fulfil their obligations and requirements in the scenarios

are elaborated.

The main outcomes of the work are:

• A collection of projections from national energy scenarios established in the literature and the

industry affecting the future distribution grid.

• A comparative analysis of scenarios and their impact on the different types of distribution grids

(urban or rural grids, different countries, geographies and resources).

• Showed that the scenarios’ projections exhibit impacts and challenges to the technical operation

of the distribution grid and DSOs.

• Defined the requirements needed by the DSOs to meet the expected evolution of the electricity

system and ensure a safe, secure and efficient grid operation according to the different scenarios.

• Demonstrated the need for new technical solutions on the distribution grid to meet the

requirements and mapped them to the solutions developed by the UNITED-GRID project.

• Showed that UNITED-GRID solutions are relevant to requirements of active distribution grids based

on plausible future scenarios.

Copyright and legal notice

The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily

reflect the views or position of the European Commission. Neither the authors nor the UNITED-GRID

Consortium are responsible for the use which might be made of the information contained in here.

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Project overview

UNITED-GRID aims to secure and optimise operation of the future intelligent distribution networks with unprecedented complexity caused by new distributed market actors along with emerging technologies such as renewable generation, energy storage, and demand resources. The project will provide integrated cyber-physical solutions, while efficiently exploiting the opportunities provided by the new actors and technologies. The core deliverable is the UNITED-GRID tool-box that could be “plugged in” to the existing Distribution Management System (DMS) via a cross-platform for advanced energy management, grid-level control and protection. This cross-platform allows interoperability from inverter-based Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) up to the distribution grid at the low and medium voltage levels, thus going beyond the state-of-the-art to optimise operation of the grid with real-time control solutions in a high level of automation and cyber-physical security. The project has genuine ambitions to create impacts and to enhance the position of European member states in the development of smart grids. The core elements in this quest are:

• Proof-of-concept and demonstration: Developed UNITED-GRID tool-box and business models will be validated in real-life demonstration sites in Netherlands, France and Sweden which cover a majority of European market conditions. At the sites, UNITED-GRID will demonstrate the capabilities of intelligent distribution grids hosting more than 80% renewables by incorporating the advanced optimisation, control and protection tool-box, which are supported by real-time measurement systems. Such technologies with TRL in a range of 3-4 will be matured via the demonstrations up to TRL level 5-6 to address comprehensively compatibility and interoperability issues.

• Pathways: Upon request by directly involved stakeholders such as Distribution System Operators (DSOs), energy suppliers, UNITED-GRID will develop pathways that will step-by-step guide in the transition from the passive distribution grids of today to the active and intelligent distribution grids of tomorrow. The pathways incorporate technical as well as non-technical considerations such as cost-benefit, investments, business models, end-user privacy and acceptance.

• Use and deployment: UNITED-GRID will nourish and firmly support the utilisation and exploitation of technologies, tools, and services in distribution grids by integrating the inherent innovation chain of the partners and their networks with EU such as KIC InnoEnergy and SSERR.

Consortium

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Acronyms and Abbreviations

BCM Billion Cubic Meters

CCS Carbon Capture and Storage

CHP Combined Heat and Power

DER Distributed Energy Resources

DMS Distribution Management System

DSO Distribution System Operator

EV Electric Vehicles

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GW Gigawatt

HLUC High level use case

HV High Voltage

ICT Information and Communications Technology

LV Low Voltage

MV Medium Voltage

MWh Megawatt-hour

NGO Non-governmental organization

PV Photovoltaic

RES Renewable Energy Sources

TSO Transmission System Operator

TWh Terawatt-hour

UC Use Case

V2G Vehicle-to-Grid

WP Work-package

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Table of Contents

1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 8

1.1 Context ............................................................................................................... 8

1.2 Structure of the deliverable ...................................................................................... 9

2 Approach ................................................................................................................... 10

2.1 Step 1: Identification and analysis of existing scenarios ................................................... 10

2.2 Step 2: Cross-analysis of relevant scenarios .................................................................. 11

2.3 Step 3: Impact and requirements for DSOs and grid ........................................................ 11

3 Identification of scenarios .............................................................................................. 12

3.1 France ............................................................................................................... 12

3.1.1 ADEME – Renewable Electricity Mix 2050 .................................................................. 12

3.1.2 RTE – Generation Adequacy Report 2017 .................................................................. 13

3.1.3 ADEME – Energy and Climate Visions 2035-2050 .......................................................... 13

3.1.4 négaWatt – Scenario 2017-2050 .............................................................................. 14

3.1.5 General Trends - France ...................................................................................... 14

3.2 Netherlands ........................................................................................................ 15

3.2.1 Scenarios for the Dutch electricity supply system ....................................................... 15

3.2.2 'Net voor de Toekomst’ - 2017 ............................................................................... 16

3.3 Sweden .............................................................................................................. 18

3.3.1 Four Futures - Swedish Energy Agency ..................................................................... 18

3.3.2 Future Electricity Production in Sweden - IVA Electricity Crossroads project ...................... 19

3.4 All identified scenarios ........................................................................................... 19

4 UNITED-GRID Suitable Scenarios ....................................................................................... 21

4.1 Selection ............................................................................................................ 21

4.2 Cross-analysis of selected scenarios ........................................................................... 21

4.2.1 Diversity of sources ............................................................................................ 21

4.2.2 Energy mix ....................................................................................................... 22

4.2.3 Renewables ...................................................................................................... 23

4.2.4 Electrification and digitalization ............................................................................ 23

4.2.5 Consumption .................................................................................................... 24

5 Impacts, requirments and UNITED-GRID solutions .................................................................. 24

5.1 Projections for the distribution grid ........................................................................... 24

5.1.1 Scenarios characteristics ..................................................................................... 24

5.1.2 Variance of European distribution grids .................................................................... 25

5.2 Impacts of scenarios .............................................................................................. 27

5.3 Requirements ...................................................................................................... 28

5.4 Impacts and requirements of scenarios by country ......................................................... 30

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5.4.1 France ............................................................................................................ 30

5.4.2 Sweden ........................................................................................................... 31

5.4.3 Netherlands ..................................................................................................... 33

5.5 UNITED-GRID Solutions ........................................................................................... 34

6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 35

7 References ................................................................................................................. 36

8 Appendix ................................................................................................................... 38

8.1 Scenario Identity Cards .......................................................................................... 38

8.1.1 France ............................................................................................................ 38

8.1.2 Netherlands ..................................................................................................... 49

8.1.3 Sweden ........................................................................................................... 55

List of Figures

Figure 1: Steps of the work .................................................................................................. 10 Figure 2: The template for reporting on scenarios "Scenario Identity Card" with example characteristics ... 10 Figure 3: Annual Electricity Consumption in France .................................................................... 14 Figure 4: RES share of annual electricity production in France (ADEME vision scenario data starts in 2035) 15 Figure 5: Annual production of electricity in 2017 (top) vs projected in the selected scenarios (bottom) ... 22 Figure 6: Breakdown of RES technologies (share from annual RES electricity production) ...................... 23

List of Tables

Table 1: List of use cases (UCs) separated in three high-level use cases (HLUC) in the UNITED-GRID project 8 Table 2: The five scenarios of RTE for the French electricity system ............................................... 13 Table 3: Annual electricity production in the Netherlands under the six scenarios ............................... 16 Table 4: Technical characteristics of the 2050 scenarios for the Netherlands ..................................... 17 Table 5: Required capacity of electricity for the Dutch grid in 2050 (GW) ......................................... 17 Table 6: Production mix in Sweden 2030 -2050 according to IVA electricity crossroad .......................... 19 Table 7: List of all identified scenarios by country; France, Netherlands and Sweden ........................... 20 Table 8: Compared characteristics from the selected scenarios and resulting characteristics ................. 25 Table 9: Indicators of the three reference networks (Urban, Semi-urban and Rural) ............................ 26 Table 10: Scenarios characteristics relevance and potential in the three reference models (Urban, Semi-urban

and Rural) ....................................................................................................................... 27 Table 11: Impacts and general requirements of scenarios characteristics .......................................... 29 Table 12: Assessment of French scenarios on SOREA’s baseline ...................................................... 30 Table 13: Assessment of Swedish scenarios on the baseline of GE ................................................... 32 Table 14: Assessment of Dutch scenarios on the baseline of ENEXIS ................................................. 33 Table 15: Relevant UNITED-GRID solutions ............................................................................... 35

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1 Introduction In the framework of an evolving energy sector, the distribution grid of the near future will considerably

change from the grid of today. That is where well-developed and thought-out scenarios of future distribution

grids can help by predicting possible arising challenges. In order to be prepared for the challenges of planning

and operating the future intelligent distribution grids, new solutions and design decisions will be required for

Distribution System Operators (DSOs).

1.1 Context In this report, the challenges that the DSOs will face in the near future are shown by analysing the impact of

the energy scenarios’ projections on the grid. To face these future challenges, a new set of solutions and

technologies will be needed for the DSOs to ensure their responsibilities.

In the UNITED-GRID project, a set of solutions answering to the expected complexity of future intelligent

distribution grids is being developed. The project aims to ease the integration of a high percentage of

Renewable Energy Resources (RES) by delivering solutions that resolve problems they introduce on the

distribution grid. The problems targeted by UNITED-GRID are both technical (e.g., protection, voltage control

and monitoring) and non-technical (e.g., new DSO business models, pathways to guide the DSOs towards

future intelligent distribution grids). These solutions form a toolbox that can be plugged-in to an existing

Distribution Management System (DMS) to enable the DSOs to operate an intelligent distribution grid.

Scenarios for the evolution of the grid will demonstrate the need for UNITED-GRID solutions and show which

future challenges they prepare for. This will map the projections of the scenarios to the solutions provided

by the project. Some of these solutions are the use cases (UC) that were developed in the context of the

UNITED-GRID project for simulations and testing in the demonstrators of the project as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: List of use cases (UCs) separated in three high-level use cases (HLUC) in the UNITED-GRID project

HLUC UC NO. UC Name

Advanced forecasting

UC01 Renewable forecast – very short term

UC02 Load forecast – very short term

UC03 Congestion forecast

Market based congestion management

UC04 Congestion management

UC05 Grid-tariff for peak demand management

Safe and secure real-time monitoring, control and protection

UC06 Advanced measurement solution

UC07 Real-time monitoring

UC08 Setting-less protection

UC09 Self-healing solution

UC10 Protection schemes for islanded networks

UC11 Coordinated voltage control of inverter-based DERs

UC12 Voltage control during islanded operation

The solutions developed in the UNITED-GRID project can be described in three high-level use cases:

• Advanced forecasting: development of solutions for forecasting of generation, consumption and

congestion on the grid.

• Market-based congestion management: investigation on how grid tariffs can be used for peak

management and other congestion management methods including a market-based approach

regarding local flexibility market for congestion management and voltage support.

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• Safe and secure real-time monitoring, control and protection: solutions for advanced measurement,

protection and voltage control in future distribution grids with high penetration of DERs.

Furthermore, a work package (WP2) in the UNITED-GRID project on “scenarios and pathways toward future

intelligent distribution grids”, aims to describe pathways that lead the DSO to future intelligent distribution

grids. The projections, their impact and the required solutions from the scenarios will help in describing these

pathways. The challenges and required solutions presented in this work will be relevant to the pathways to

intelligent distribution grids since they are the implications of existing scenarios developed in the literature

and the industry for different markets. In addition, the services and solutions needed will have consequences

on the regulations, policies and business models of future distribution grid. These consequences are also

being tackled by the UNITED-GRID project and can be seen as complimentary to the work presented in this

report. The other issues investigated by the project are the following:

• Task 2.3 Monitoring and support of developments in regulation, policy and standards

• Task 2.4: Acceptance of active distribution grid management from DSOs and end-user

• Task 2.5: Development and specification of viable business models in future intelligent distribution

grids

• Task 2.6: Pathways for development of future intelligent distribution grids

The project presents the developments in regulation and policies that will be an integral part of the future

distribution grids, the acceptance of active distribution grids that represents a big factor in the scenarios

materializing and the business models that take advantage of the opportunities present in the scenarios of

future intelligent active distribution grids.

1.2 Structure of the deliverable The work reported in this report started by the collection of scenarios with projections in the near future

(2025-2035) for the three countries of the UNITED-GRID project partners: France, Netherlands and Sweden.

The projections of the scenarios were analysed qualitatively and quantitatively to reach an overview of the

expected changes on the grid in the near future in these countries. Then, a scenario with an impact on the

distribution grid was selected from each of the countries and a cross-analysis of the main characteristics of

these scenarios was presented.

From this analysis, the projections affecting the distribution grids and the DSOs were presented. The impact

of the scenarios on the grid was analysed since it will influence the needs of the DSOs to operate the future

distribution grid. The requirements needed to meet these impacts were defined. Various solutions and

services can meet these requirements and the UNITED-GRID project tackles some of them. The last step then

was to identify what requirements the UNITED-GRID solutions are targeting.

This work mapped the implications of plausible near future scenarios to requirements of the technical

operation of the grid and identified the position of the UNITED-GRID provided solutions.

The next sections of this report discuss the work done in the UNITED-GRID project to collect and analyse

scenarios for future intelligent distribution grids. Section 2 presents the approach of the work. Section 3 is

about the collection of existing energy scenarios found in the industry and the literature for the countries of

the project partners. Section 4 comparatively analyses the scenarios with an impact on the distribution grid

and which are relevant to the technical problems tackled by UNITED-GRID. The impacts and requirements of

the scenarios on the future distribution grid and DSOs are elaborated in Section 5 with a link to the UNITED-

GRID project solutions. Section 6 ends the report with a conclusion on the work.

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2 Approach In this study, the work was done following three major steps as shown in Figure 1: collection of established

scenarios, cross-analysis of scenarios relevant to UNITED-GRID and the study of the impacts and requirements

of these scenarios.

Figure 1: Steps of the work

The outcome following this approach is:

• Collection and overview of existing scenarios.

• Cross-analysis of various plausible future scenarios with projections affecting the distribution grid.

• Investigation of scenarios’ impact on future active distribution grids and any arising challenges and

new requirements in the future for DSOs.

2.1 Step 1: Identification and analysis of existing scenarios First, existing scenarios were identified in order to get an overview of already established studies and to get

a general idea of the expected direction for the power industry. This exercise helps in giving an overview of

expected future distribution grids, the challenges that will arise and the outline of some boundaries of what

is to be expected in the near future.

The identification of scenarios was done on a country basis focusing on the countries of the project partners

and on characteristics pertinent to the UNITED-GRID vision (RES share, energy storage, consumption, etc…).

The analysis was completed using a template that summarises the scenarios containing the indices with

impact on the distribution grid.

The identified scenarios were collected from various sources and are targeted at Sweden, the Netherlands

and France. This means that each study uses a different approach to reach a final scenario and each includes

different characteristics and data. Therefore, a common reporting mechanism had to be adopted and the

“Scenario Identity Card” was created.

Figure 2: The template for reporting on scenarios "Scenario Identity Card" with example characteristics

Identification and analysis of existing

scenarios

Cross-analysis of relevant scenarios

Impacts & Requirements for DSOs and

distribution grids

Scenario name

Source of the scenario

Target horizon

Publishing year

Peak (GW)Energy

(TWh)

% of Total

Production

Photovoltaics (PV)

Onshore Wind

Offshore Wind

Hydropower

Marine Power

Other Renewables

Inter-seasonal

Weekly

Intra-day

Hot Water Load

Management

Household Appliances

Heating Shedding

ElectrificationElectric Vehicles (EV)

charging management

Country

Consumption

Baseline Case at target

year

Scenario identity card

Scenario (quantity)

RES

Storage

Emerging

digitalization

Indicators Technological Development Fundamental factors

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The “Scenario Identity Card”, shown in Figure 2, is a unified template that presents a summary of key facts

for any analysed scenario. The fields of the template are flexible and were edited and chosen based on the

scenario being summarised and the data it included. However, the analysis used a common structure and

themes in order to evaluate the different scenarios using a single template.

The main themes that were reported on the template are:

• RES (Renewable Energy Sources): This is an indicator of the expected future renewable energy mix

in the examined scenario. The capacity and the energy produced show the penetration of renewable

energy sources in the power grid.

• Storage: The expected storage capacity in the target market. When the information was available,

the capacity was divided between intra-day, weekly and inter-seasonal storage (usually representing

batteries, hydropower pumped storage and power-to-gas, respectively).

• Emerging digitalization: This field reports on the new digital services on the grid, including the various

forms and methods of demand response and load management and new Information and

Communications Technology (ICT) services.

• Electrification: The type and quantity of new electrical loads (Electric Vehicles (EVs), heat pumps,

etc.)

• Country Consumption: The total electrical energy required to supply the country. Any change in the

consumption needs will have a direct effect on the energy mix and grid planning.

For each of these main themes, the Scenario Identity Card includes subfields of relevant characteristics when

they are available in the examined scenario and the relevant quantities are shown.

Technological development and fundamental factors qualitatively summarise the scenario and give a quick

look at its approach. These fields help in understanding the reasoning of the studies behind the scenarios and

is helpful when trying to understand and compare them.

The result is a unified reporting structure that gives a quick and extensive summary of a scenario and that

paves the way to comparing the different selected scenarios.

Section 3 of the report presents the work done in this step and the scenarios collected from the three

countries: Sweden, the Netherlands and France.

2.2 Step 2: Cross-analysis of relevant scenarios From all of the identified scenarios in the first step that give an overview of projection for the future of the

electricity sector, three scenarios with a demonstrable impact on the distribution grid, each from a country

within the project, were further analysed and compared. The challenges introduced by the scenarios for the

DSOs show the need for new solutions in operating and designing future intelligent distribution grids.

The analysis collected the challenges and constraints that will be present on the distribution grid due to the

expected change and evolution of the power industry and based on the identified scenarios from the first

step. This analysis set up the work of the next step of studying the impact of the scenarios on the DSOs and

the distribution grid.

Section 4 of the report includes the relevant scenarios and a comparative analysis of their main

characteristics.

2.3 Step 3: Impact and requirements for DSOs and grid Following the first two steps in this task, the impact on the DSOs and distribution grids of the future can be

reached. With relevant scenarios analysed and compared for the different targeted markets, the

consequences of their projections will be tackled. The analysis will represent the impact of scenarios

collected in the previous step that have different approaches and sources.

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From the list of impacts on the distribution grid, a list of required solutions and services can be reached to

prepare the DSOs for the impact of the scenarios. This analysis shows how the solutions provided by the

UNITED-GRID project align with the requirements of the future intelligent distribution grids.

Section 5 of the report shows the impacts of the analysed scenarios on the distribution grid, the requirements

to meet these impacts and makes the link of the analysed scenarios to the UNITED-GRID set of solutions.

3 Identification of scenarios The step of identification of existing scenarios was tackled by country and the focus was on the countries of

partners in the UNITED-GRID project: France, Netherlands and Sweden. Thus, scenarios of future power grids

for each country were collected to be analysed.

This was done as a review of already established scenarios for each country. UNITED-GRID aims at providing

new tools and technologies integrating 80% of renewable energy sources on the grid. Naturally, out of the

existing scenarios, some scenarios were in line with the UNITED-GRID vision and some were not. However, all

of the identified scenarios were selected as to be relevant to the project respecting key criteria, having

mainly a high percentage of renewable energy share and being based on studies for the near future. This

ensures that the consequences of the selected scenarios will have an impact on the distribution grid and will

be relevant to the solutions developed by the UNITED-GRID project. This also helps the future user of UNITED-

GRID solutions in identifying when the solutions are relevant and which future projections and challenges

they help in tackling.

Even though the target horizon in some of the identified scenarios may be greater than the goals of UNITED-

GRID, the relevant near future (5-10 years) data was extracted and used for the analysis. The completed

“scenario identity card” for each of the identified scenarios in sections 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3 was completed and

can be found in Appendix 8.1.

What follows is an overview of the identified scenarios based on each country.

3.1 France For the French market, multiple sources of future grid scenarios were identified and analysed. The sources

of the scenarios were chosen to be:

• The French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME: Agence de l'Environnement et de

la Maîtrise de l'Energie)

• The national transmission system operator (RTE: Réseau de Transport d'Electricité)

• A Non-governmental organization (NGO) (négaWatt)

These three diverse and credible sources of scenarios provide a global view of the projected future French

power industry with different approaches.

3.1.1 ADEME – Renewable Electricity Mix 2050

• This ADEME (French Environment and Energy Management Agency) study [1] sets a desired high

percentage of renewable energy share and optimises the energy mix and the power grid that are able

to achieve it without taking into consideration the current state of the grid.

• The study contains various scenarios depending on the share of renewable energy deployment. Two

scenarios with a 100% and 80% penetration of renewables were identified and analysed.

• The scenarios assume that ambitious demand flexibility solutions are implemented. The solutions

relying on a widespread development of new energy technologies and associated services.

• Use of inter-seasonal storage to replace thermal generation in scenarios with high penetration of

renewables (95% and 100%).

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• Public acceptance, energy efficiency and technology costs have the biggest influence on which

technologies are installed in order to obtain the desired renewable energy penetration.

3.1.2 RTE – Generation Adequacy Report 2017

• RTE (Réseau de Transport d'Électricité) is the French Transmission System Operator (TSO) and in its

2017 generation adequacy report [2], it presented five scenarios for the French market with a target

horizon of 2025 and 2035.

• All of the five scenarios were analysed and their “Scenario Identity Card” are included in the

appendix. An overview of the energy mix of these scenarios is included in Table 2.

Table 2: The five scenarios of RTE for the French electricity system

Scenario Name Ohm Ampere Hertz Volt Watt

Target Horizon 2025 2035 2035 2035 2035

Share of Annual

Electricity Production

Nuclear 50% 46% 47% 56% 11%

Renewable Energy

34% 50% 45% 40% 71%

Thermal 16% 4% 8% 4% 18%

• The scenarios take into consideration the closing of nuclear reactors, which is required by the French

Energy Transition Law.

• According to the study, the energy efficiency initiatives will exceed the increase in energy

consumption from electrification (EV, heat pumps…). This leads to a general trend of decreasing

electricity consumption.

• The study also included a look on the potential evolution of self-consumption of electricity in the

French market:

o In France, 3.8 million residences can economically justify installing a photovoltaic (PV)

system with the goal of consuming a part of their production.

o The spread of distributed storage (batteries) favours the increase of self-consumption.

o Self-consumption in horizon 2035 (considered in 4 scenarios): 10 GW of PV and a few GWh of

batteries installed by consumers.

o However, in the case of favourable regulation and an increase in social acceptance, the

installed capacity can go up to 18 GW of PV and 10 GWh of batteries.

3.1.3 ADEME – Energy and Climate Visions 2035-2050

• ADEME's vision [3] to achieve the commitments for the French market set on the global scale (Paris

agreement), the European level (Energy-Climate 2030) and the national level with the National Low

Carbon Strategy (Stratégie Nationale Bas Carbone, SNBC) and the Multiyear Energy Programme

(Programmation Pluriannuelle de l'Énergie, PPE [4]).

• Explores a strategy to manage the energy consumption, lower CO2 emissions and advance renewables.

• Second-generation smart meters are needed for the dynamic control of loads (EVs charging, heating,

sanitary hot water…) providing intra-day flexibility.

• Energy efficiency measures will lead to an electricity consumption reduction up to 2035. The

consumption will stabilise from 2035 to 2050 when these measures will no longer lead to a net

reduction due to the increase in electrification.

• High penetration of renewable energy sources requires an increase in storage capacities, and surplus

renewable energy could be stored (batteries, power-to-gas for inter-seasonal storage).

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3.1.4 négaWatt – Scenario 2017-2050

• négaWatt is a French NGO and think-tank that has been releasing and updating a French energy

transition scenario [5] since 2003.

• The scenario focuses on energy efficiency and the widespread adoption of sustainable practices for

the reduction of consumption, a 100% renewables share and carbon neutral France by 2050.

• In the scenario, electricity consumption decreases up to 2030, but then starts increasing until the

target year. The decrease is due to energy efficiency and widespread change of behaviour in the

society. After 2030, the share of electricity in the total energy consumption increases (due to

electrification) and electricity consumption starts increasing again.

• Inter-seasonal storage becomes essential at a high share of renewable energy sources.

3.1.5 General Trends - France With all of the above scenarios for the future French power grid collected and analysed, there was enough

data collected to look at the general trends that were seen between all of them.

Even with the expected increase of electrification of other sectors (transport, heating and cooling, etc.),

almost all of the identified scenarios show a decrease of total electricity consumption in the near term, as

shown in Figure 3. Most of the scenarios agree that the efforts of energy efficiency in the different sectors

coupled with load management technologies will be able to offset the new electrical loads. Only two of the

scenarios, négaWatt and RTE Hertz, show that after this decrease, an increase in consumption will occur in

the longer term after the years 2025 and 2030, respectively. These two scenarios show the same initial

decrease in consumption, but argue that a point will be reached where the demand from new loads will

exceed the energy efficiency efforts.

Figure 3: Annual Electricity Consumption in France

All of the scenarios show an increase of RES installed capacity and share of electricity production. Figure 4

shows the percentage of electricity produced from renewable energy for all of France. For the French market,

the power produced from nuclear plays a big part of the total energy produced and the penetration of RES

greatly depends on the policies and actions of phasing out nuclear power. For the year 2030, the most

conservative figure for RES is 34.4% (RTE VOLT) of total electricity production while the most ambitious

(négaWatt) is of 80.9%. This shows that for all the collected scenarios, renewable energy will have a big share

of electricity production on the national level in the near future and this share will be even more noticeable

on the distribution grid.

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Figure 4: RES share of annual electricity production in France (ADEME vision scenario data starts in 2035)

3.2 Netherlands The changes in the energy system to strive for far-reaching CO2 reduction are set out in the Energy Agenda

[6] that the government adopted in 2016. The set path of the energy transition is to have zero greenhouse

gas emissions in the energy system by 2050. This means that for all functional energy demands (heating and

cooling, energy sources/raw materials for the industry, power & light, transport, etc.) the greenhouse gas

emissions must be reduced to zero. To achieve a CO2 neutral society in 2050, the energy supply will have to

change radically for decades. The operators of the energy networks try with different scenarios to get a grip

on the possible developments in the Netherlands. Although the investment choices made by network

operators can speed up the transition, the energy transition is not just about the most cost-efficient technical

solutions. The transition to a climate-friendly energy supply also requires major public support for the

changes.

3.2.1 Scenarios for the Dutch electricity supply system In a report prepared for the Dutch ministry of economic affairs in 2015, ‘Scenarios for the Dutch electricity

supply system’, [7], Frontier Economics elaborates scenarios for the electricity system of the Netherlands.

The development of these scenarios relies on quantitative power market analysis and policy analysis. The

study takes into consideration the policies and European regulations driving the energy transition, the changes

in fuel and CO2 prices and the increasing integration of the Western European electricity market.

The approach of the study was developing one central scenario representing the policies now in action in the

Netherlands and the most likely market evolutions. Additional quantitative and qualitative analysis is

conducted based policy indicators (costs of the system, reliability, market structure, etc.)

Furthermore, the study elaborates six variants from the central scenario developed. The electricity production by energy source is shown in Table 3. The table shows the evolution of the resources used for electricity production in the coming future in the Netherlands following each of the developed scenarios in the study.

Other differentiating factors between the scenarios are the proliferation of Demand Response, the market

share of EVs and the type of RES adopted to achieve a greener electricity system. The detailed data of each

scenario is available in Appendix 8.1.2.

The study concludes that the Dutch electricity system is well set up for the challenges of the future. The

scenarios show the expected increase of Demand Response, EVs, DERs and the use of flexibilities in general

on the grid.

16




Table 3: Annual electricity production in the Netherlands under the six scenarios

Ref. 2015

Scenario I (2030)

Scenario II (2050)

Scenario III (2050)

Scenario IV (2050)

Scenario V (2050)

Scenario VI (2050)

Nuclear (TWh) 4 4 2 0 0 0 0

Fossil Fuels (TWh) 78 73 22 10 22 10 12

RES (TWh)

PV 1 12 46 46 46 46 46

Wind 7 43 114 116 114 116 114

Other 5 9 2 12 2 12 12

3.2.2 'Net voor de Toekomst’ - 2017 'Net voor de Toekomst - 2017' [8] also fits in with the transition paths of the government elaborating the

future using four different images of society and energy. In this study, a working group of all network

operators placed the technical challenges in form of four scenarios following the social and political indicators

providing four variants for the future electricity system of the Netherlands. The following is a short

description of the four visions with Table 4 below showing a comparison of the technical characteristics:

1. Regional: Provinces and municipalities have a lot of control in this vision of the future. As much

energy as possible for the electricity and heat production comes from renewable sources such as sun,

wind, biomass and geothermal energy. Much more energy infrastructure and storage in the form of

hydrogen is needed to resolve inequality and distance between supply and demand. Conversion of

electricity to hydrogen takes place at many locations throughout the country.

2. National: Policy in this vision of the future aims for energy autonomy in the Netherlands through a

mix of mainly central energy sources (offshore wind in particular). A lot of storage is needed in the

form of hydrogen because supply and demand do not take place simultaneously. Electricity is

converted to hydrogen on the coast or even at sea.

3. International: In this view of the future, the Netherlands is a globally oriented country that imports

renewable energy, such as biomass and hydrogen produced from renewable electricity (e.g.,

electrolysis). There is an international trade in hydrogen from climate neutral sources (renewable

and fossil fuels with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)).

4. Generic: In this vision of the future, energy is supplied through an organic process, controlled by a

strong CO2 price signal, but without further government control. The energy supply is a mix of local

and international options. Collective options and measures, such as home insulation, remain out or

are executed late in the transition process. Dutch business will contribute, in this future vision, much

less to solutions than in the other visions.

Finally, a number of things emerge from the different visions of the future:

• Network operators can realize a climate neutral energy supply in all sorts of ways, whereby the

sources and degree of import vary widely.

• The role of electricity as an energy carrier will increase. Since the production of energy will become

more sustainable (due to RES), this will make for a more sustainable energy system.

• Hydrogen production for storing energy produced by intermittent RES is indispensable in the future

energy supply.

• Flexibility in energy demand contributes to lower cost of the electricity system.

• Power stations also run out in future visions in which sun and wind are important energy sources

• Other RES than wind and PV, with the same capacity as the current coal and gas plants, are needed

to provide sufficient electricity on dry and windless days.

• In the transport sector, biogas, hydrogen and electricity take over the role of gasoline and diesel.

17




Table 4: Technical characteristics of the 2050 scenarios for the Netherlands

Regional National International Generic

Power and Light

25% reduction minimum demand more efficient equipment. Furthermore a strong electrification industry

25% reduction due to efficient equipment

25% reduction due to efficient equipment

Low temperature heat

Many heat networks and all-electric. (Limiting green gas, no H2 distribution). Reduction 23%

Many hybrid heat pumps on H2 (and green gas) (Limiting on green gas). Reduction 16%

Many hybrid heat pumps on green gas and hydrogen (mild limiting of green gas) Reduction 12%

Mix of individual options (no large collective, no other limitations) Reduction 17%

High temperature Industry

Circular industry and ambitious process innovation: 60% reduction; 55% electrification; CO2 -emission -97%.

Biomass-based industry and CCS: 55% reduction; 35% biomass; 14% electrification; CO2 emission -95%

Gradual development, business as usual and CCS: 20% reduction; 12% electrification; CO2 emission -85%.

Public transportation

100% electric 75% electric, 25% H2 fuel cell

50% electric; 25% green gas; 25% H2

50% electric; 25% green gas; 25% H2

Logistics 50% green gas; 50% H2

25% biomass; 25% green gas; 50% H2

renewables in NL

84 GW solar 16 GW onshore wind 26 GW offshore wind




conversion / storage in NL

75 GW electrolysis 60 GW battery storage 9 bcm gas buffer



0 GW electrolysis 2 GW battery storage 10 bcm gas buffe

For the Netherlands in 2050, electricity becomes more important in the energy supply, also for industry. In

the regional scenario, local and regional electricity is generated from solar and wind power then transported

to industry via the national grid and converted into hydrogen. In the national scenario, in particular, added

infrastructure is required to transport energy generated at sea. The heavy reinforcement of electricity grids

means not only a lot of work for the network operators, along with the need for sufficient technical personnel,

but it also places a large demand on public space in order to install more transformers and extra power lines.

• The flexibility of users contributes to the optimisation of the costs of the electricity system.

• In all scenarios in which solar and wind energy are important sources, power plants not using fossil

fuels are also required with the same power equivalent as the current coal and gas plants, as a

solution for days with no shining sun or wind.

• A good solution is for energy from solar and wind sources not only to be aimed at electricity

consumption, but also to include transport, fulfilling the demand for heat, and for use as feedstock

for the chemical industry.

Table 5: Required capacity of electricity for the Dutch grid in 2050 (GW)

Capacity [GW] Current Regional National International General

Offshore Wind 1 26 53 6 5

High Voltage 20 36 57 18 19

Medium Voltage 10 53 22 10 10

Low Voltage 11 24 13 11 11

18




3.3 Sweden

3.3.1 Four Futures - Swedish Energy Agency Different types of scenarios exist that have a different scope and time horizon and combinations of methods

may be desirable. For Sweden, there are for example long term visions, normative scenarios, probabilistic

(forecasting scenarios), explorative scenarios, back casting scenarios, roadmaps, trend analyses (horizon

scanning) and other types.

Exploratory scenarios aim at analysing different possible or reasonable futures without any assessment of

probability. Exploratory scenarios can be used for strategy development, especially when different

alternatives are important. The Swedish Energy Agency's ‘Four Futures’ [9] is perhaps the most prominent

exploratory scenario analysis that has been produced in Sweden in recent years.

In the report "Four Futures - the energy system beyond 2020", a comprehensive analysis shows four possible

scenarios for the future energy system in Sweden. Different driving forces for the role of energy in society

lead to different types of energy systems. External factors such as global warming and digitalisation will have

great effect on the development of the Swedish energy system.

With four scenarios, the Swedish Energy Agency provides a starting point for a modern energy dialogue that

sets course for the year 2035 and also look ahead to the year 2050.

• In Forte (forceful), it is important that society ensures that energy prices are low, especially for

industry. Welfare is based on economic growth and the availability of jobs in traditional industry.

Secure supply and access to energy is also one of Forte's main priorities.

• Legato (tied together), involves reducing the energy system's environmental impact and helping to

resolve a global issue. Important factors here are ecological sustainability and global justice, which

characterise its solutions.

• Espressivo (expressive), is very much based on people's own initiatives and consumers who want to

have individual solutions and flexibility. Here, green energy is a strong driving force.

Decentralisation, small-scale private production and purchasing services are important elements.

• Vivace (lively), has a strong climate focus. Sweden has chosen to become a forerunner in green growth

and develops the export market for environmental clean technology and a new bioindustry. This

entails an investment in new types of jobs.

Some of the key findings from the scenarios are

• Sweden has good potential for producing electricity with low emissions and at low costs, thanks to

favourable access to natural resources.

• The transport sector gains a stronger connection to other energy sectors due to increased

electrification of the vehicle fleet, establishment of electric roads and greater use of biofuels.

• Meeting the UN's global sustainable development goals is strongly dependent on the development of

the energy system

• Robust measures are needed to achieve the climate goals. All the scenarios reduce emissions

compared with today, but it is only two scenarios, Legato and Vivace, that reduce them sufficiently

to fulfil the global climate agreements on reduced emissions by 2050 in accordance with the interim

report of the All-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives. These scenarios include robust

measures, large investments and a major transition from the society we have today.

For UNITED-GRID, these exploratory scenarios will have to be complemented with more normative scenarios

(as a starting point for analysing the impact on the smart grid system) or probabilistic scenarios (where the

most important variables are considered known and adjusted within the various cases, quantitatively or

qualitatively through descriptions of e.g. policies or with some sort of base / high / low lay-out for different

scenarios.)

19




3.3.2 Future Electricity Production in Sweden - IVA Electricity Crossroads project IVA’s (Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences) project Electricity Crossroads has created 4 scenarios

[10] for the electricity production in Sweden in 2030-2050, based on the gross energy potential available from

different energy sources. The gross energy potential does not consider economical or environmental aspects.

In all scenarios, a fossil free electricity production system is assumed but with different energy mixes.

The future electricity demand for the scenarios was taken from the report “IVA crossroad: Future electricity

demand” which estimated the electricity consumption in the range of 140-180 TWh and a maximum power

demand of 26-30 GW.

The results from the different scenarios assuming an annual electricity demand of 160 TWh is presented in

Table 6.

Table 6: Production mix in Sweden 2030 -2050 according to IVA electricity crossroad

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Potential

Hydro 65 65 65 85 100 TWh

Wind 55 40 20 35 >100 Twh

Solar 15 5 5 5 50 TWh

Biofuel 25 50 20 35 60 TWh

Nuclear 0 0 50 0 >100 TWh

A short summary of the key findings between the different scenarios are presented below.

• In scenario 1, 50% of the annual energy comes from variable energy resources and supplementary

systems to support with power as well as expansion of the transfer capacity. The support system

could both be ability to store energy but also flexible production capacity e.g. gas turbines.

• In scenario 2, the power balance will be maintained if 10% demand flexibility is assumed. Sweden

will be self-sufficient in energy and power but there could be a competition for the biomass with

other sectors and there is a need for coordination between electricity and heat production.

• Scenario 3 will be similar to today’s electricity system where new nuclear power is being built at the

same locations as today’s nuclear power plants and does not require substantial investments in new

supplementary systems. The power balance will be maintained if 10% demand flexibility is assumed.

• Scenario 4 will expand the hydropower in Sweden and will require increased transmission capacity

from north to south. There will be large difference in domestic energy production between wet years

and dry years which will require exchange with neighbouring countries. The hydropower could support

other countries with load balancing.

As can be seen, all scenarios require an increase in both wind power and solar power. It is likely that the

future will be somewhere in between these four scenarios. From UNITED-GRID perspective, it is also important

to note that this report does not consider the influence on the distribution system but could be used for

guidance.

3.4 All identified scenarios Table 7 summarizes all of the identified scenarios for the three countries from [1]–[3], [5], [7], [9], [10]. It

presents the analysed scenarios, the sources and the general approach of the studies. The annual electricity

production of RES at the target horizon in the identified scenarios is also indicated, showing the high

percentage of RES projected in the identified scenarios.

20




Table 7: List of all identified scenarios by country; France, Netherlands and Sweden

Scenario Name

Scenario Source Target Horizon

Approach RES % of annual production

FRAN

CE

OHM RTE Generation Adequacy Report (2017) – French TSO

2025 Scenarios of the TSO based on the generation adequacy of electricity supply-demand balance (decommissioning of nuclear reactors, rate of RES deployment, consumption evolution), new energy technologies (demand management, storage, electrification) and energy transition laws.

34%

AMPERE 2035 50%

HERTZ 45%

VOLT 40%

WATT 71%

50% nuclear ADEME Energy-Climate Visions 2035-2050 (2017) - French Environment & Energy Management Agency

2035-2050

The agency's vision to achieve the commitments set on the global scale (Paris agreement), the European level (Energy-Climate 2030) and the national level with the National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) and the Multiyear Energy Programme (PPE).

44%

80% renewable electricity

80%

90% renewable electricity

90%

100% Renewables

ADEME Renewable Electricity Mix (2016) - French Environment & Energy Management Agency (2016)

2050 Optimise the energy mix to reach the desired RES penetration with balance of supply and demand for each hour of the year taking into consideration the national potential of each technology but not considering the current state of the grid.

100%

80% Renewables 80%

négaWatt scenario 2017-2050

négaWatt (2017) - NGO releases and updates a French energy transition scenario since 2003

2017-2050

Energy efficiency and sustainable practices for reduction in energy consumption and a 100% renewable and carbon neutral France by 2050.

100%

Neth

erl

ands

Scenario I Scenarios for the Dutch electricity supply system (2015) - Prepared for the Dutch ministry of economic affairs by Frontier Economics

2030 Based on quantitative analysis of investments, power prices, interconnections with neighbouring countries and power generation developments. Analysis from the current political framework in the Netherlands and includes qualitative and quantitative policy analysis.

45%

Scenario 2 2050 91%

Scenario 3 94%

Scenario 4 91%

Scenario 5 94%

Scenario 6 94%

Sw

eden

Forte Swedish Energy Agency (2016) - Subordinate to the Swedish Ministry of Environment and Energy

2035-2050

Four different future scenarios based on what society prioritises and the consequences it will have on the energy sector

44.7%

Legato 91.7%

Espressivo 67.%

Vivace 67.7%

Scenario I IVA Electricity Crossroads project (2017) - Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences

2030-2050

Qualitative analysis based on discussions and by studying literature, with quantitative analysis on the system level to show what the Swedish electricity production could be.

100%

Scenario 2 100%

Scenario 3 68%

Scenario 4 100%

21




4 UNITED-GRID Suitable Scenarios

4.1 Selection The collection of the scenarios for the different countries that was presented in the previous section presents

an overview of the projections for the three partner countries in the project. All identified scenarios were

established by credible sources and offer a plausible vision of the future power grid.

The next step consisted in selecting a scenario for each country with a demonstrable impact on the future of

DSOs and the distribution grid based on the collected data from the previous section. The chosen scenarios

introduce challenges to the operation and design of distribution grids that can be tackled with the solutions

provided in the UNITED-GRID project.

The three scenarios that have been further analysed:

• Vivace – Swedish Energy Agency (Sweden - projections for 2035)

• Watt – RTE (France - projections for 2035)

• Scenario I – Frontier Economics (Netherlands - projections for 2030)

The Vivace scenario focuses on flexible demand, development of metering and control technologies, and a

strong market for balance. While the horizon of the study is 2050, the study includes data for year 2035 and

these were used for the analysis in this report.

For France, the study of RTE is a quantitative study by the national TSO and the scenario Watt is the variant

with the highest share of renewables production and includes load management, EVs and self-consumption

projections that are relevant for the distribution grid and the solutions developed in the UNITED-GRID project.

Frontier Economics is quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Dutch electricity system and its readiness

to cope with the increase of intermittent renewable energy sources. The scenarios took into consideration

technical, market and policy indicators that might affect the development of the Dutch electricity system.

Scenario I of the study was further analysed in this report with a target horizon of 2030.

4.2 Cross-analysis of selected scenarios As mentioned before, the detailed analysis of each of these scenarios individually is available in Appendix

8.1. This section presents the cross-analysis of the three selected scenarios and the recurring themes in the

studies that will paint an overall picture of the future markets. This exercise leads to the study of the impact

of the chosen scenarios and the requirements for future distribution grids and DSOs.

The following sections present a cross-analysis of the main common themes between the chosen scenarios.

4.2.1 Diversity of sources The type of source for each of the scenarios differs from the others. The selected scenarios are a result of

studies by a transmission system operator: RTE Watt; a national energy agency: Swedish Energy Agency –

Vivace and a private sector consultancy (report for the Dutch ministry of economic affairs): Frontier

Economics – Scenario I. This diversity of sources and targets gives a good representation of different

perspectives and is in line with the UNITED-GRID project that will be providing solutions relevant to a variety

of European markets.

In addition, the real-life demonstrators in the UNITED-GRID project are located in the three project partners’

countries: the SOREA distribution grid in France, Strijp-S area in the Netherlands and the Chalmers’ campus

in Sweden. The selected scenarios are for the markets of these three countries and will be relevant to the

demonstrations planned in the project.

22




4.2.2 Energy mix One of the main technical goals of the UNITED-GRID project is to provide a toolbox that will enable the

hosting of 80% renewable energy annual production. A key characteristic in the scenarios, is the projected

energy mix of the countries. This analysis helps in showing the DSO which technologies will be present on the

grid in order to prepare for their impact on the distribution grid. Hence, all selected scenarios have a high

penetration of renewables in the energy mix and the total annual production was considered rather than the

installed capacity when analysing the scenarios.

The energy mix and the share of RES from the annual electricity generation is as shown in Figure 5 for the

three countries in 2017 and the projections in the selected scenarios.

Figure 5: Annual production of electricity in 2017 (top) vs projected in the selected scenarios (bottom) figures calculated from: [2], [11], [12]

The variance of the projections in each of the scenarios reflects the variance in the markets being analysed

but they all show an evolution of the energy mix and the tendency towards increasing RES production for the

three countries. For example, the Netherlands differs from France and Sweden by not having a big capacity

of nuclear generation and fossil fuel generation keeps a 52% share of annual electricity production but RES is

still projected to produce 45% of annual electricity in 2030 in the selected scenario on the national level.

It is to be noted that for France for example, the chosen scenario RTE Watt is in contrast with the Multiyear

Energy Program (Programmation Pluriannuelle de l'Énergie, PPE [4]), a strategic plan issued by the French

government that plans for a slower decommissioning of nuclear plants. Scenario Watt has nuclear power

accounting for 11% of annual generated electricity in 2035, while the PPE adopted in January 2019 has it at

50%. This figure in the PPE is closer to projections in other scenarios for France, but the choice for UNITED-

GRID focuses on the high penetration of RES and solving the problems that will arise from it. That is why,

with 71% share for RES in Watt, it was the chosen scenario for France.

23




4.2.3 Renewables In all the identified and analysed scenarios, the power sector trend of decentralization is projected to

continue, with an increase in the share of distributed generation and renewables. The type of projected RES

used in the near future are related to the status of the system in each of the countries and the natural

resources available. The projection of RES deployment in the three scenarios is as shown in Figure 6.

Hydropower makes up 50% of RES for Sweden in this scenario, while wind energy is the most producing

technology for France and the Netherlands. PV systems and other renewables (mainly bioenergy) make up

the rest of the RES production and are also present in all three markets.

Figure 6: Breakdown of RES technologies (share from annual RES electricity production)

These figures represent the annual national production, so it is to be noted that this breakdown will be

different for each distribution grid. This will depend on the geographical region, the available natural

resources and which technologies are connected on the distribution grid level. The analysed scenarios give a

general overview of the expected share of each technology and its capacity to contribute to the electricity

grid. For the UNITED-GRID project, the focus is on the distribution grid and with the aim of targeting a big

percentage of the European market with the project’s solutions; these three scenarios represent various

options for testing and implementation in the demonstrators of the project.

4.2.4 Electrification and digitalization As seen from the analysis of the scenarios for the three countries and the Scenario Identity Cards included in

Appendix 8.1, energy sectors are showing a tendency towards electrification. The transport and the heating

sectors show the principal change and they are common points between the different markets for new

electrical loads to be expected in the near future.

Another common point between the different scenarios is the need for demand response and new ways to

trade capacity and electricity. This will require an improvement in the level of digitalization on the power

grid and it will have an impact on the architecture of future active distribution grids.

The Vivace scenario relies on a highly automated demand and on the market for balancing the supply and

demand of electricity. Information is readily available between all energy sector players and relies on

developments in metering and control technologies.

For RTE Watt scenario, with the decommissioning of 52 nuclear reactors in France and the deployment of a

high capacity of RES, load management techniques are essential to guarantee the balance in the power grid.

Distributed batteries start to be economically viable from the year 2030 and the expected 5.5 million EVs on

the grid will be either responding to price signals or having V2G capabilities. However, parallel to this, self-

consumption becomes more and more economically viable in the French market with 10 GW to 18 GW of

capacity installed by 2035 which will be accompanied by distributed energy storage.

24




Scenario I of Frontier Economics for the Netherlands projects an increase in Demand Response specifically

using load reduction and load shifting. Heat pumps and EVs play a major role in providing these capacities in

the residential and commercial sectors.

The main points on electrification and digitalization in the three selected scenarios are:

• Vivace: Electric public and individual transport – new services to increase flexibility of electrical

sector – highly automated and flexible demand.

• Watt: EVs with Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) and price sensitive charging – heat pumps and sanitary hot water

provide opportunities in the grid - load management for reduction of peaks.

• FE Scenario I: Increase of EVs share in the market – load shedding and load shifting services.

4.2.5 Consumption Consumption projections differ in the three selected scenarios. For the Swedish market, the Vivace scenario

includes a growing use of energy but with a focus on climate issues. New technologies and energy efficiency

help in bringing the total annual electricity production lower than its current figure: 172.3 TWh in 2017

compared to 155 TWh in 2035 as per Vivace scenario.

In the French RTE Watt scenario, energy efficiency measures are planned to continue the trend of decreasing

electricity consumption even with new electrical loads: 475 TWh consumed in 2017 and 410.3 TWh projected

in 2035.

In the case of the Netherlands, even with the projected improvement of the overall efficiency of the energy

sector, the growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) keeps the annual electricity generation growing at a

moderate pace: 95 TWh in 2015 to 141 TWh in 2030.

Going further from the figures of total annual consumption in the scenarios, and as discussed in section 4.2.4,

the grid of the future will be hosting more and more new electrical loads. The electrification of the transport

and heating sectors is the main driver of new loads in the three countries and with the increase of EVs and

electrical heating, the distribution grid will be faced with a challenge of higher consumption peaks if no

measures are taken.

5 Impacts, requirments and UNITED-GRID solutions The previous sections presented several scenarios for the countries of the UNITED-GRID project partners. One

scenario from each country was chosen and the three scenarios were compared. The compared scenarios will

be considered to study the impact on the technical operation of the distribution grid. Then, the required

services to face these impacts by the DSO will be defined. Finally, the requirements will be linked to the

solutions developed in the UNITED-GRID project.

5.1 Projections for the distribution grid

5.1.1 Scenarios characteristics The UNITED-GRID project is developing solutions targeted at the DSOs to help them in the management of

future distribution grids. The energy and electricity scenarios presented in the previous sections were

developed on the national level for the three countries: France, the Netherlands and Sweden.

To study the impact of scenarios on the distribution grid, the analysed main themes in the previous section

for the three countries of the UNITED-GRID project have been used. The three highlighted scenarios in the

cross-analysis of Section 4 present one plausible scenario for each country. Table 8 shows the characteristics

that were compared quantitatively and qualitatively between the three scenarios with a potential impact on

the future distribution grid.

25




Table 8: Compared characteristics from the selected scenarios and resulting characteristics

“Scenarios characteristics” in Table 8 attempt to generalize the projections of the three scenarios into

qualitative characteristics that apply to distribution grids of the future. The impact of these characteristics

on the technical operation of the future distribution grids will be analysed.

5.1.2 Variance of European distribution grids The relevance of the projections to each distribution grid vary due to the variety and particularity of each

network. In this section, we try to link the technologies and the projections of the scenarios to the most

relevant type of distribution grids.

The distribution grids and the DSOs in Europe greatly vary between countries and in the same countries in

some cases [13], [14]. According to a study by Eurelectric conducted in 2013 [14], more than 2000 DSOs exist

in Europe. Factors shaping the situation on the distribution grid include technical elements and the legal

framework that the DSO is operating within (e.g., geographical location, number, type and density of

customers, voltage levels, DSOs responsibilities and activities, historical actors).There are 158 DSOs in

France, 11 in the Netherlands and 173 in Sweden [14]. That is why collective projections on the national level

presented earlier in the scenarios will have different consequences on each distribution grid and DSO.

A study of 79 out of the 190 European DSOs serving more than 100,000 customers (and thus have to comply

with EU Electricity Directive unbundling requirements) was carried out in [13]. Three reference networks and

Vivace (Sweden, 2035)

Watt (France, 2035) FE Scenario I (Netherlands, 2030)

Scenarios Characteristics

RES Increase from 52% in 2017 to 68% of total electricity production

Increase from 18% in 2017 to 71.3% of total electricity production

Increase from 11% in 2017 to 45% of total electricity production

Important increase of intermittent RES

Share from RES production

Hydropower

50% 21.7% - Increase of distributed generation Wind 23% 51.3% 67.19%

PV 8% 18.5% 18.75%

Other RES

19% 8.5% 14.06%

Flexibilities Highly automated demand and reliance on the market for balancing the supply and demand of electricity. Important developments in ICT and new services to increase the flexibility of the electrical system

Flexibilities in Watt scenario are very important to accompany the high share of renewables. Demand response is needed to reduce consumption peaks. 6 GW of load shedding capacity. Self-consumption based on the acceptance of consumers and regulatory incentives will range between 10 and 18 GW of PV

Demand response in 2030: additional 700 MW of load reduction and load shifting. From industry, emergency generation, EVs and heat pumps

Flexible demand with Demand Response Energy Storage Self-consumption Heating sector becoming more electrical and flexible

Electrification Electrification of the public and individual transport sector

5.5 million EVs - 10.9 TWh of consumption. Electrification of heating sector

EVs from 3% in 2015 to 17% share in 2030

Increase of EVs on the distribution grid

26




ten feeder models that represent various types of European distribution grids were presented based on the

data collected in the study. For this analysis, we have considered the full network models that were divided

into three types: urban, semi-urban and rural networks downstream from a HV/MV substation and including

MV and LV consumers. These models were created using the data collected in the study from the European

DSOs and are thus representative of a high percentage of European distribution grids. Table 9 shows the

constructed three reference networks in the study.

Table 9: Indicators of the three reference networks (Urban, Semi-urban and Rural) based on data form [13]

Indicator Urban Semi-urban Rural

Number of LV consumers per MV consumer Lowest (335) Medium (350) Highest (389)

LV circuit length per LV consumer (km) Shortest (0.0004)

Medium (0.008)

Longest (0.027)

LV underground ratio Very High (86%)

Medium (42%) Very low (4%)

Number of LV consumers per MV/LV substation Highest (101) Medium (87) Lowest (51)

MV/LV substation capacity per LV consumer (kVA) Medium (6.499)

Highest (6.995)

Lowest (5.209)

MV circuit length per MV Supply Point (km) Shortest(0.2) Medium (0.3) Highest (0.8)

MV underground ratio Very High (100%)

Medium (74%) Lowest (15%)

Number of MV Supply Points per HV/MV substation Lowest (164) Highest (201) Medium (172)

MV/LV transformer substation capacity (kVA) 400 – 630 – 1000

100 – 250 – 400 - 630 – 1000

100 – 250 - 400

Degree of automation (fault detectors, switches and circuit breakers)

Low Low Low

The urban network represents a highly populated city, dense grids and the most customers connected to a

single MV/LV substation. Feeders to customers are the shortest, and they are mostly underground since this

is an urban area. The rural network models a network with farms and small settlements. Much less denser

than urban grids with a lower number of customers connected to one substation. Feeder circuit length per

customer are the longest and only a small percentage of feeders is underground. The semi-urban model

represents a situation between the other two networks, on the peripheries of a city for example.

As mentioned earlier, the huge variety of distribution grids and even the branches of the same network makes

generalizing the scenario projections very complex. The separation to three types of networks (urban, semi-

urban and rural) serves to show which scenario projections will be more relevant to which type of distribution

grid. The relevance of each scenario characteristic (from Table 8) is analysed for the reference networks

below in Table 10.

The variable impact of each scenario characteristic on the different types of distribution grids shows the

challenge of bringing the projections of the scenarios established on the national level to the distribution

grid level. The analysis in Table 10 shows which characteristic is more relevant to which type of general

reference network. This work helps showing what challenges will generally be present on which types of grids

and hence which solutions will be required. The evolution of the power sector will affect DSOs managing

urban or rural areas differently and will thus require a different set of solutions.

27




Table 10: Scenarios characteristics relevance and potential in the three reference models (Urban, Semi-urban and Rural)

Scenarios Characteristics

Urban Semi-urban Rural

Distributed Generation RES

Dense network makes penetration of distributed generation less dominant. PV generation is the most relevant technology. Limited space for installing distributed generation. Combined heat and power (CHP) generation on the district level might be relevant.

A mix of PV and potential for small-scale CHP generation combined with biomass fuels.

PV and small-scale CHP distributed generation can be present in high capacities. Small hydropower generation and small onshore wind generation can be present on MV distribution grids.

Energy storage With less distributed generation, stationary batteries have less potential to develop. Other forms of energy storage (heat in buildings, district heating, sanitary hot water, etc.) might be viable with Demand Response applications.

Better potential for energy storage but space and limited distributed generation may be prohibiting factors.

Highest potential for energy storage and batteries. Increase of intermittent RES and less dense consumption will favour energy storage adoption.

EVs EVs have a big potential in highly populated urban networks. Electrification of public transport sector should be considered as well.

City suburbs and less dense urban settlements also possess a high potential for adoption of EVs.

Due to longer length of cables and lines in rural grids, charging EVs introduces voltage drop challenges.

Demand Response

High density of urban areas mean an abundance of electrical appliances, heating and cooling, sanitary hot water and EVs that present a big potential for Demand Response applications.

Similar to urban networks, but with less dense networks. Possible industries surrounding cities possess high capacity loads.

Less populated but industries and farms possess higher capacity loads to contribute to Demand Response.

Self-consumption

Low space for distributed generation makes self-consumption less likely. Collective self-consumption might be more relevant.

Higher potential of self-consumption in city suburbs with more space for distributed generation and potential energy storage.

High potential of distributed generation and energy storage makes self-consumption very relevant to rural grid.

5.2 Impacts of scenarios This work elaborates the impact of the main projection gathered above on the technical operation of the

future distribution grid. From the previous analysis, this section will consider the following projections to

study their impact:

• Increase of intermittent decentralized RES on the grid.

• Energy storage will be present on the grid enabling flexible demand and better integration of RES on

the grid.

• Increase of EVs connected to the grid, the charging of EVs can be fully charged when plugged-in,

responding to price signals or having V2G capability.

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• Changes in the consumption and consumers of electricity: electrification of other energy sectors will

be a challenge for the gird; consumers are becoming more flexible with demand response, self-

consumption, energy storage and EVs on the distribution grid. DERs contributing to the operation of

the grid and ancillary services.

The key challenges that will affect the technical operation of the grid according to the scenarios have been

significantly analysed individually in the literature to study their impact. From the literature, [15] and [16]

discuss the challenges of integrating distributed generation; the impact of distributed energy storage is

analysed with distributed generation and self-consumption in [17]–[19]. The impacts of the projected

implementation of Demand Response and increase of EVs on the distribution grid are examined in [20]–[23].

The increase of intermittent decentralized generation on the grid introduces voltage rise, phase imbalances

and transient problems with power quality issues [15], [16]. Renewables deployed on the distribution grid

introduce problems on the protection side as well and add a complexity to the control and management of

the grid [15]. Frequency control is needed in case RES and energy storage are used to operate microgrids on

the distribution network [24].

With the increase of energy storage on the distribution grid, there is an opportunity to contribute to the

ancillary services [17]. Batteries and EVs can represent an asset to the DSOs as a flexibility resource. The

increased adoption of EVs by consumers and the various possible charging techniques (fully charged when

plugged-in, responding to price signals, V2G capability) on the distribution grid adds stress on the grid

infrastructure; power quality issues, higher consumption peak and phase imbalances [20]–[23].

With projections of high penetration of RES on the grid in the scenarios and new electrical loads

(electrification of transport and heating sectors), congestion problems might be faced. Charging of EVs and

the peaks of heating consumption due to weather conditions are challenges that operation of the distribution

grid will face, if these technologies are not properly managed.

An aspect of the distribution grid that faces a major transformation is the nature of consumption. Self-

consumption rate will be on the rise enabled by the increase of distributed generation and distributed energy

storage. Various motives are driving the increase of Demand Response applications, like energy efficiency,

consumer willingness and the need for flexibilities and reduction of power peaks on the distribution grid [23].

A flexible demand side and self-consumption of electricity can provide the capability of contributing to the

ancillary services on the distribution grid [19], [23].

In general, the various DERs that will be connected to the distribution grid and the flexible end-users will add

complexity to the operation of the grid.

The impacts of the scenarios’ characteristics are summarized in Table 11 along with the general requirements

analysis.

5.3 Requirements Section 5.2 above discussed how the scenarios’ projections affect the technical operation of the distribution

grid in the near future. This section defines what needs to be done to overcome the effect of the new

technologies.

New tools and services are needed for the operation of the future intelligent distribution grid. From the study

of the impact of scenarios in the previous section, the required new technical services will be identified.

These services will enable the DSOs to cope with the projections of the scenarios and ensure the safe and

secure operation of the distribution grid in face of future challenges.

Voltage control will be needed to deal with the voltage issues introduced by the important increase of

intermittent decentralized generation on the grid. The impact on power quality and protection by the various

29




DERs connected to the distribution grid will require new protections methods and frequency control in the

case of microgrid operation.

RES, energy storage, self-consumption, EVs and Demand Response can contribute to the ancillary services on

the distribution grid. This will require new operation models to accommodate the flexibilities and the

decentralized production.

Congestion management can give signals to help the implementation of the flexibilities on the grid and to

ease the impact brought by important amounts of distributed generation and new electrical loads (heating

and EVs) which will require new congestion management solutions. Forecasting of renewables generation and

load will contribute to achieve congestion forecast and management solutions.

On the grid level, the control and operation are becoming more and more complex. The projected burst of

DERs from distributed generation and energy storage and the capability of managing the demand side on the

distribution grid will present a great challenge to the DSOs and the tools they possess now will have to evolve.

The new challenges on the distribution grid will require greater observability on the distribution grid with an

improved ICT infrastructure and advanced measurement and control.

Table 11 presents the summary of the scenarios’ characteristics taken into consideration, their impacts on

the distribution grid and the list of general requirements that can answer to the impacts.

Table 11: Impacts and general requirements of scenarios characteristics

Scenarios characteristics

Impacts General Requirements

Important increase of intermittent decentralized RES

Voltage rise Phase imbalances Power quality: harmonics, flicker, etc. Impact on protection Islanding effect Stability Congestion Contribution to ancillary services

Voltage control Frequency control Advanced protection Congestion forecast and management Generation and load forecast Advanced measurement and control Improved ICT infrastructure Advanced DMS features New operation models to accommodate flexible demand and production from end-users

Increased adoption of energy storage, Demand Response and self-consumption

Contribution to ancillary services

New electrical loads Electrification of heating sector EVs

Added stress on the network Increased consumption peaks Power Quality: Harmonics Phase imbalance Contribution to ancillary services Congestion

General operation impacts

More complex operation of the grid End-users contributing with flexibilities and production

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5.4 Impacts and requirements of scenarios by country In the UNITED-GRID project, Work Package 7 consists of demonstrating the solutions developed in the project.

The scenarios collected and analysed in this report can be used in further testing on specific distribution grid

configurations. The demonstration sites and simulations conducted in the project will further specify the

impact of the scenarios’ projections on the technical operation of the relevant grids and show why and when

new solutions will be required on the distribution grid.

With the scenarios analysed in Section 3, many future possibilities for France, Netherlands and Sweden were

collected. This section focuses on the qualitative assessment of the scenarios’ impact by country using a

framework developed in an earlier task of the UNITED-GRID project [25]. For the three DSOs in the project,

SOREA (France), Göteborg Energi (GE) (Sweden) and ENEXIS (Netherlands), a baseline assessment of the

current status was done. This section presents the impact of analysed scenarios on various technical and

market indicators from the framework.

5.4.1 France From the collected scenarios for France, this analysis will focus on the two scenarios that represent opposing

futures for the French energy sector: Scenarios ‘WATT’ from RTE focusing on RES and Scenario ‘ADEME Energy

and Climate Visions – 50% nuclear’ that studies the future energy sector with nuclear power keeping a big

share of electricity production. The analysis of these scenarios was done in Section 3.1 and their ‘Scenario

Identity Card’ available in Appendix 8.1.1. In Table 12 below, the assessment of SOREA under the two

scenarios is provided next to the baseline assessment from the earlier task 2.1 in UNITED-GRID.

Table 12: Assessment of French scenarios on SOREA’s baseline

IND. INDICATOR ASSESSMENT - current status of SOREA

ASSESSMENT under Scenario WATT

ASSESSMENT under Scenario ADEME - 50% nuclear

T1 DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES (DERs)

Today the distribution system has a limited amount of solar PV and hydropower production. There are a few EVs in the network while the system has high heating demand. However, it is currently not being used for flexibility provision. Currently, the network does not have any energy storages, but it is expected soon to be installed. Solutions for PV very short-term PV production forecasting has been recently installed at demo-site.

Large decommissioning of nuclear power in France and RES accounting for 71% of total production. For SOREA, an additional increase distributed generation (in the form of PV and hydropower) is to be expected on the grid. The grid will have to adapt to deal with such a high level of penetration [26].WATT also foresees a future with a big increase of EVs with multiple charging modes available, so the grid needs to be ready to host the EVs and manage the charging infrastructure. Demand Response is essential and energy storage (intra-day, weekly and accompanying self-consumption) is projected to increase in this scenario, so the DSO needs new solutions to deal with flexibilities on the grid.

France keeps a 50% share of electricity produced from nuclear power plants. RES at 44% of total production on the national level so the impacts of renewables on the distribution grids is less pronounced. Minimal increases of weekly and intra-day storage are needed with the high share of nuclear power plants. No inter-seasonal storage (e.g., power-to-gas) is required.

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T2 LEVEL OF MONITORING AND CONTROL

The DSO is presently not equipped with the AMIs, but they are expected to be installed soon. However, the substations are equipped with automation systems.

High increase of DERs and new solutions necessary on the distribution grid will require an advanced level of monitoring and control to deal with the added complexity on the grid.

Minimal additions of distributed energy storage and the reliance on centralised nuclear power. Low amount of flexibilities and DERs on the grid will demand lower levels of monitoring and control.

T3 SYSTEM STATUS

The system has both underground and overhead cables for the distribution purposes, but underground cables are the majority. The distribution network is designed as meshed network. The network has a high level of reliability of supply. The DSO is not participating in the frequency control.

The added complexity on the distribution grid with a share of RES can affect the level of reliability of supply. The DERs on the distribution grid present a new opportunity to contribute in ancillary services and support the grid. This requires new business models, supporting ICT solutions and favourable legislation.

With less DERs on the distribution grid and dominating nuclear power plants, new solutions for flexibilities, peaks and ancillary services in general might not be profitable or needed on the distribution grid.

T4 CYBER-PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION

No information available.

Design and operation of future distribution grids needs to take into consideration the risks and the security of the grid with the spread of ICT technologies.

Level of ICT infrastructure required is lower and thus there will be a lower risk and security concerns for the grid.

M1 SERVICES AND MARKETS

Limited information provided. Wholesale electricity supply is open to competition.

Including different sides of the distribution grid in the electricity market will require new enabling market mechanisms.

More centralised generation and lower opportunity for open markets based on distributed generation and RES.

M2 TARIFFS Grid tariffs are based on fixed cost based on subscribed power and energy charge

Tariff schemes have to accommodate the remuneration of flexible demand and distributed generation.

Less DERs might not require a big overhaul of the tariffs schemes.

M3 BUSINESS MODELS

Feed in tariffs for PV and hydro

New business models are needed to enable the contribution of DERs to ancillary services.

New opportunities on the distribution grid and for DSO are not as existent with low DER levels.

5.4.2 Sweden For the Swedish market, the assessment will based on the Swedish Energy Agency scenarios ‘Vivace’ and

‘Forte’. Vivace focuses on flexible demand, advanced levels of monitoring and control and relies on a strong

market for balancing the system. Forte however is a scenario were Sweden greatly relies on centralised

generation and where climate concerns are considered after the security of supply and energy price concerns.

The analysis of these scenarios was done in Section 183.3 and their ‘Scenario Identity Card’ available in

Appendix 8.1.3. Table 13 presents the assessment of the Swedish DSO under the two scenarios next to the

baseline assessment from the earlier task in UNITED-GRID.

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Table 13: Assessment of Swedish scenarios on the baseline of GE

IND. INDICATOR ASSESSMENT - current status of GE

ASSESSMENT under Scenario Vivace

ASSESSMENT under Scenario Forte


Today the system has limited amount of solar PV and wind production. Advanced very short-term forecasting of renewable energy production is not available. The charge infrastructure for EVs is being built up and the use of heat pumps and district heating is already today widespread. However, it is currently not being used for flexibility provision. Utility-scaled energy storages are currently not in place.

Favouring policies and high acceptance of RES (68% of total production by 2035 and 100% by 2050). Impacts on quality of supply with the high share of renewables on the distribution grid to be expected at these high level of penetrations [27], [28]. With the high penetration level and reliance on the market to balance the system, forecasting and congestion management will be needed. Similarly, various flexible demand potentials will be needed to contribute to the market and the underlying enabling infrastructure provided.

Lower penetration level of RES (45% of total production) is projected with a higher focus on centralised large-scale generation. Less penetration of total DERs and less need for distributed energy storage and demand side flexibilities.


The DSO has already today an AMI that cover almost 100% of the customers, and a new roll out is being prepared in order to enhance the functionalities The standard SCADA systems are used for monitoring and control of distribution grids from 10 kV up to 130 kV. However, SCADA is not available for LV networks.

Flexibilities are an essential aspect of the scenario and the system heavily relies on the market and the automation of demand flexibility, hence the wide spread of advanced monitoring and control solutions will be required to meet the goals in Vivace.

Reliance on centralised power generation translates to lower levels of required monitoring and control on the distribution grid.

T3 SYSTEM STATUS

The system mainly consists of underground cables (100%). The system is moderately loaded, i.e., below 60% for cables or transformers. The grids are designed as a meshed system but operated radially with very high level of reliability. The DSO is not participating in frequency control.

With a strong infrastructure and moderate loading, the grid might be ready for the increase of DERs. Further consideration through simulations and demonstrators will help in determining the readiness of current infrastructure and required new solutions. The DERs on the distribution grid present a new opportunity to contribute in ancillary services and support the grid.

With a low penetration of RES and DERs and power being generated mainly in central power plants, the quality of supply and the level of reliability can be maintained with the infrastructure. Balance in the system is ensured by having enough central generation capacities.


No information available. Design and operation of future distribution grids needs to take into consideration the risks and the security of the grid with the spread of ICT technologies.

Level of ICT required is lower and thus there will be a lower risk and security concerns on the grid.


Electricity prices are open to competition. All electricity is traded at the Nord pool stock exchange. The customers are given the options to either pay the spot market price or the fixed prices offered by energy retailers. Limited number of actors are providing ancillary services.

New services are required to enable the flexibilities on the grid to contribute in ancillary services and balancing the system. High reliance on the market will require further development of enabling market structures.

A great importance is placed on the low prices of electricity. Trading is mainly done on the global level. This means less need for services and markets for DSO and the distribution grid.

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M2 TARIFFS Grid tariff based on fixed cost and energy charge, and also a power tariff for commercial customer.

Tariffs will have to take into consideration the highly automated flexibility on the demand side and resorting to the market for balancing the system in this scenario.

End-consumers will face high prices of electricity. Less need for evolution of tariffs.

M3 BUSINESS MODELS

No information available. New business models are essential to cope with the increased flexibilities on the grid and the new opportunities for all sides on the distribution grid.

Flexibilities are limited. No great opportunities for new business models.

5.4.3 Netherlands For the Netherlands, the assessment will focus on two scenarios: Scenario I and Scenario VI from the study

‘Scenarios for the Dutch electricity system’. The study was analysed in Section 3.2 and the relevant ‘Scenario

identity card’ are included in Appendix 8.1.2.

Table 14 shows the baseline assessment of ENEXIS completed in task 2.1 of the UNITED-GRID project and the

assessment under the two scenarios.

Table 14: Assessment of Dutch scenarios on the baseline of ENEXIS

IND. INDICATOR ASSESSMENT - current status of ENEXIS

ASSESSMENT under Scenario I

ASSESSMENT under Scenario VI


Today the system has high amount of solar PV and biomass power production. The network does not have EVs and the heating demand. Thus, they are currently not used for flexibility provision. Currently, the network has very small amount of energy storages. Advanced very short-term forecasting of renewable energy production is not available.

The Netherlands in general decreases the use of fossil fuels and supports RES for 45% of production by 2030 on the national level. The distribution grid will expect even an increase in the level of penetration of PV and biomass. Load shifting and reduction are needed and see a slight increase. EVs and heat pumps will have to contribute to Demand Response.

Higher increase of DERs in the electricity system (up to % by 2050). Flexibilities on the grid see the highest increase in this scenario (EVs and heat pumps mainly). Bigger need for adoption of Demand Response with the higher flexibilities on the grid.


The DSO presently has very high number of smart meters. Also, the network sub-stations are equipped with a number of automation systems.

The automation already present on the grid will be needed to operate the flexibilities.

High requirement for Demand Response and the required level of monitoring and control is very high.

T3 SYSTEM STATUS

The system has mainly cables for the distribution purposes. The network is designed and operated as radial network. The network has very high level of reliability for power supply. The DSO is not participating in the frequency control.

With the decrease of centralised fossil fuel generation and the increase of RES, the reliability of the grid might be affected. Dispatchable biomass on the grid helps the reliability but the intermittent nature of PV is to be accounted for.

The level of reliability will be tested with big increase in DERs and the widespread adoption of intermittent RES on the distribution grid. New solution might be needed to avoid grid reinforcements.

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In 2017 Dutch DSO implemented a new standard for gas and electricity grid security, the ISA/IEC-62443 standard. This assists us in setting up security architectures, training employees and detecting security incidents in a structured way. The security management system is integrated into our risk management system

Moderate ICT infrastructure to accommodate new services, risks and security of the distribution grid should be ensured.

The high level of required ICT to support Demand Response applications will require the consideration of risks and security of the distribution grid.


No information available Moderate increase in Demand Response requirements will have to be met with new services.

High level of Demand Response will require new services. Markets are a viable option to take advantage of the DERs on the grid.

M2 TARIFFS Grid tariffs are based on fixed cost based on subscribed power and energy charge.

Evolution of tariffs to account for DERs and prosumers will be needed.

Evolution of tariffs to account for DERs and prosumers will be needed.

M3 BUSINESS MODELS

Feed-in tariffs for PV and hydro

New business models to take advantage of the opportunities on the distribution grid are needed.

New business models to take advantage of the opportunities on the distribution grid are needed.

5.5 UNITED-GRID Solutions The new challenges projected on the distribution grid in the near future and their impacts will require a new

set of solutions at the disposal of the DSOs and all distribution grid sides. These solutions will help in

safeguarding the operation of the distribution grid and offer new opportunities in the evolving power sector.

From the defined requirements above, new services and tools can be identified that will contribute to the

solutions for DSOs.

Several of the impacts and requirements discussed above are tackled in the UNITED-GRID project. In the

context of developing specifications of functionality and requirements for cyber-physical systems in Task 3.1

of UNITED-GRID, twelve use cases that represent the technical solutions that will be developed in the project

were elaborated. Other tasks in the project are targeting some of the issues resulting from the projections

of the scenarios as well. Table 15 links the requirements on future intelligent distribution grid to the solutions

provided by the UNITED-GRID project.

In addition to these individual tasks and in the context of WP6 “Tool-box and Cross-platform integration for

demonstrator sites”, all of the UNITED-GRID solutions will be integrated in a tool-box and connected to

existing DMS. This will demonstrate the applicability of the developed solutions and show how they can help

in managing the added complexity on the distribution grid.

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Table 15: Relevant UNITED-GRID solutions

Requirements UNITED-GRID Use Cases and Tasks

Load and Generation Forecast

Task 4.1: Development of very short-term forecasting tools for load and renewable generation

UC01: Renewable forecast

UC02: Load forecast

Congestion Forecast and management

Task 4.2: Development of congestion forecast tool and analysis

UC03: Congestion forecast

Task 4.3: Design of market framework for distribution network congestion management and voltage control

Task 4.4: Congestion management for distribution systems using multi-agent system (MAS) approach with support of big measurement data

UC04: Congestion management

New operation models to accommodate flexible demand and production by end-users

Task 2.5: Development and specification of viable business models in future intelligent distribution grids

Task 4.3: Design of market framework for distribution network congestion management and voltage control

Task 4.5: Investigation of models of grid-tariff for management of peak demand in distribution systems

UC05: Grid-tariff for peak Demand management

Improved ICT infrastructure Advanced measurement and control

Task 5.1: Development and deployment of an affordable and reliable measurement solution to enhance grid monitoring capability

UC06: Advanced measurement solution

Task 5.2: Enabling real-time system awareness via the cross-platform

UC07: Real-time Monitoring

Advanced protection Voltage Control

Task 5.3: Enhancement of protection schemes for inverter-based DERs and LV distribution grid

UC08: Setting-less protection

Task 5.4: Investigation and implementation of self-healing solution(s) for optimal and reliable grid operation of distribution networks

UC09: Self-healing Solution

Task 5.5: Real-time operation and control coordination between inverter-based DERs and advanced DMS

UC10: Protection Schemes for islanded networks

UC11: Coordinated voltage control of inverter based DERs UC12: Voltage control during islanded operation

6 Conclusion This report presented a collection of scenarios for the countries of the UNITED-GRID project: France, the

Netherlands and Sweden that were established on the national level for the three countries. The collected

data from a range of energy and electricity scenarios, summarized and presented in this report, represents

a reference of future projections established in the literature and industry. From the identified scenarios,

one scenario from each country with an impact on the future operation and design of active distribution grids

was further analysed and presented.

The analysed scenarios show an impact of the projections on the different types of distribution grids in

different countries and with varying resources and electrical systems. This translates to challenges that will

face the DSOs in future intelligent distribution grids. The report showed the need for new solutions to prepare

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DSOs for the near future and the added complexity of future distribution grids. A new set of requirements

that will be needed to face these impacts was reached.

Solutions developed in the context of the UNITED-GRID project were shown to meet some of the requirements

for future intelligent distribution grids and are thus well positioned to answer to the impact of the projections

from scenarios established in the literature and the industry for the countries within the project.

Furthermore, concerning UNITED-GRID, the scenarios presented in this work for the countries of the project

partners can serve as an input to the simulations and demonstrations of the UNITED-GRID solutions developed

in WPs 4 and 5 and demonstrated in WP 7. The result of scenarios’ analysis, the defined requirement to meet

the impact and the mapping to the UNITED-GRID solutions will be used to develop new DSO business models

and the pathways to future intelligent distribution grids in later tasks of WP2 in the UNITED-GRID project.

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[18] M. Braun, A. U. Schmiegel, and J. von Appen, “Impact of PV Storage Systems on Low Voltage Grids – A Study on the Influence of PV Storage Systems on the Voltage Symmetry of the Grid,” 27th Eur. Photovolt. Sol. Energy Conf. Exhib., pp. 3822–3828, Oct. 2012.

[19] A. I. Nousdilis, A. I. Chrysochos, G. K. Papagiannis, and G. C. Christoforidis, “The impact of Photovoltaic Self-Consumption Rate on voltage levels in LV distribution grids,” in 2017 11th IEEE International Conference on Compatibility, Power Electronics and Power Engineering (CPE-POWERENG), 2017, pp. 650–655.

[20] L. P. Fernandez, T. G. S. Roman, R. Cossent, C. M. Domingo, and P. Frias, “Assessment of the Impact of Plug-in Electric Vehicles on Distribution Networks,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 206–213, Feb. 2011.

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[21] G. A. Putrus, P. Suwanapingkarl, D. Johnston, E. C. Bentley, and M. Narayana, “Impact of electric vehicles on power distribution networks,” in 2009 IEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference, 2009, pp. 827–831.

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[25] UNITED-GRID, “Deliverable 2.1 Baseline description of distribution grid management.” [26] V. Silva, M. Lopez-Botet Zulueta, Y. Wang, P. Fourment, T. Hinchliffe, and A. Burtin, “Analyse technico-

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8 Appendix

8.1 Scenario Identity Cards

8.1.1 France


Scenario name 80% Renewables

Source of the scenario ADEME Renewable

Electricity Mix

Target horizon 2050

Publishing year 2015

Indicators

Scenario (quantity)

Technological Development Fundamental factors Peak (GW)

Energy (TWh)

% of Total

Production

RES

PV 53.8 41.7 12.3

% of RES in total production: 80%

Optimise the energy mix to reach the desired RES penetration with balance of supply and demand for each hour of the year taking into consideration the national potential of each technology and the associated costs. Inter-regional and cross-border interconnection have to be reinforced. Surplus renewable energy is used for heat or gas networks. Second-generation smart meters widely deployed and assumes cheap management of end-users: 22 GW of consumption-stimulation and 8 GW of load shifting.

Onshore Wind 183.6 66.7 42.0

Offshore Wind 15.1 3.7 3.5

Hydropower 61.3 20.8 14.0

Marine Power 0.5 0.2 0.1

Other Renewables

35.5 4.5 8.1

Storage

Inter-seasonal 0

With a small capacity of nuclear and fossil fuel generation, no need for inter-seasonal storage

Weekly 7 Hydropower pumped-storage

Intra-day 8 Discharge within 6 hours

Emerging digitalization

Hot Water Load Management

2.6 6.7 100% of sanitary hot water can be managed.


2.85 7.7 50% of washer, drier and dishwasher load is manageable for 75% of consumers.

Heating Shedding

25.4 34.8

Shedding of up to 75% of residential and commercial load.

Electrification EV charging management

6.8 15.6 Management of 10.7 million EVs and hybrids.

Country Consumption

Baseline Case at target year

96 422

Influenced by: high and low demand, climate projections, public acceptance and technologies deployment.

39





Scenario name 100% Renewables

Source of the scenario ADEME Renewable Electricity

Mix

Target horizon 2050


Indicators

Scenario (quantity)

Technological Development

Fundamental factors Peak (GW)

Energy (TWh)

% of Total

Production

RES

PV 63.5 82.1 17.0

% of RES in total production: 100% Optimise the energy mix to

reach the desired RES penetration with balance of supply and demand for each hour of the year taking into consideration the national potential of each technology and the associated costs. Inter-regional and cross-border interconnection have to be reinforced. Surplus renewable energy is used for heat or gas networks. Inter-seasonal storage is used for security of supply with the absence of fuel-based generation. Second-generation smart meters widely deployed and assumes cheap management of end-users: 22 GW of consumption-stimulation and 8 GW of load-shifting.

Onshore Wind 96.5 261.2 54.2

Offshore Wind

10 41.9 8.7


Marine Power 0.2 0.5 0.1

Other Renewables

4.5 35.5 7.4

Storage

Inter-seasonal 17

Power-to-Gas and Gas-to-Power

Weekly 7

Hydropower pumped-storage

Intra-day 12

Discharge within 6 hours


Hot Water Load

Management 2.6 6.7

100% of sanitary hot water can be managed.


2.85 7.7

50% of washer, drier and dishwasher load is manageable for 75% of consumers.

Heating Shedding

25.4 34.8

Shedding of up to 75% of residential and commercial load.

Electrification EV charging

management 6.8 15.6

Management of 10.7 million EVs and hybrids.

Country Consumption


96 422

Influenced by variables such as: high and low demand, climate projections, public acceptance and technologies deployment.

40





Scenario name OHM


RTE (French TSO)

Target horizon 2025

Publishing year

2017

Indicators

Scenario (quantity) Technological Development

Fundamental Factors Peak (GW)

Energy (TWh)

% of Total Production

RES

PV 24 28 5.1

RES percentage from total production: 34%

Decommissioning of 22 GW of installed nuclear power production to attain the goal of reducing the nuclear power share to 50% of produced power. Replaced by construction of new thermal power plants (9 GW of gas power plants and 3 GW of either additional thermal plants or load management capacity). RES deployment follows the most ambitious trajectory to compensate closure of nuclear power plants. New gas power plants and maintaining of coal power plants in this scenario lead to the increase of CO2 emissions compared to 2017 French power mix.

Onshore Wind

30 66 12.0

Offshore Wind

5 16 2.9

Hydropower 26 64 11.7

Marine Power

0 0 0.0

Other Renewables

3 13 2.4

Storage Inter-

seasonal Not essential in France with % renewables penetration.


Demand Response

Load management capacity can reduce the required thermal power plants and help reduce CO2 emissions.


management 2.9 million EVs by 2025

Country Consumption

Baseline Case at

target year 465 TWh

41





Scenario name WATT

Source of the scenario RTE (French TSO)

Target horizon 2035


Indicators



Energy (TWh)


RES

PV 48.5 58.1 13.2


Decommissioning of all nuclear reactors that attained 40 years of service (52 reactors) and closing of coal power plants. Additional 21 GW of gas power plants and a bigger reliance on imports to compensate the loss of production. Scenario based on the sustained development of renewable energy recourses and the projected decrease of consumption. Increase of CO2 emissions for electricity production in France.

Onshore Wind

52.3 114.7 25.9

Offshore Wind

15 47 10.6


Marine Power

3 8.7 1.9

Other Renewables

4.1 18 4.1

Storage

Inter-seasonal

Not essential in France with 71% renewables penetration.

Weekly 6.2 8.1 Hydropower pumped storage

Intra-Day Depending on self-consumption acceptance, installed distributed batteries can vary from a few GWh to 10 GWh.


Demand Response

Load management is essential to reduce consumption peaks – 6 GW of capacity

Self-consumption

Between 10 and 18 GW of capacity depending on favourable regulation and consumers’ acceptance

Electrification EV charging management

5.5 million EVs by 2035

Various possibilities: 40% not managed, 30% responding to price signals, 40% managed by a BMS

Country Consumption


410.3 TWh

Consumption figure considers efficiency measures and new loads from electrification (EV, Heat pumps, etc.)

42





Scenario name VOLT


Target horizon 2035


Indicators


Fundamental factors

Peak (GW)

Energy (TWh)


RES

PV 42.7 7.0


Decommissioning of nuclear reactors but not reaching the 50% target (56% of nuclear power from total production) and closing of coal power plants. New gas power plants are not economically viable with the majority of production coming from nuclear.

Onshore Wind

88.1 14.4

Offshore Wind

29.1 4.7

Hydropower 65.5 10.7

Marine Power

2.9 0.5

Other Renewables

15.4 2.5

Storage

Inter-seasonal

Weekly 6.6 Hydropower pumped storage

Intra-day

Depending on self-consumption acceptance, installed distributed batteries can vary from a few GWh to 10 GWh.


Demand Response

Load management capacity may be used to reduce the needed fossil fuel generation and reduce emissions.

Self-consumption

Between 10 and 18 GWp of capacity depending on favourable regulation and consumers’ acceptance


management 8.3 million EVs

Various possibilities: 40% not managed, 30% responding to price signals, 40% managed by a BMS.

Country Consumption

Baseline Case at

target year 442 TWh

GDP: +1.5% per year Building renovations: 500,000 /year

43





Scenario name HERTZ


Target horizon 2035


Indicators



Energy (TWh)


RES

PV 42.7 7.9


Goal of 50% nuclear achieved in 2030. Stable CO2 emissions with the closing of coal power plants and new 10 GW of gas power plants. Load management and flexibilities will help limit the needed additional thermal power plants.

Onshore Wind

88.1 16.3

Offshore Wind

29.1 5.4

Hydropower 64.6 12

Marine Power

2.9 0.5

Other Renewables

15.4 2.8

Storage

Inter-seasonal


Intra-day Depending on self-consumption acceptance, installed distributed batteries can vary from a few GWh to 10 GWh.


Load management


Self-consumption



management 15.6 million EVs


Country Consumption

Baseline Case at

target year 480 TWh

GDP: +2% per year Building renovations: 700,000/year

44





Scenario name AMPERE


RTE (French TSO)

Target horizon 2035


Indicators



Energy (TWh)


RES

PV 58.1 9.1

RES percentage from total production: 50% Attaining the nuclear

decommissioning target (with 46% of total production), closing of coal power plants, and no need for new thermal power plants. Reduction of total CO2 emissions. Renewables have to replace nuclear reactors. Flexibilities on the demand side to help this transition. To avoid new thermal power plants: load shedding, increase of interconnection capacities, or limit consumption. High penetration of renewables leads to France being a net exporter of electricity.

Onshore Wind

114.6 18

Offshore Wind

47 7.4

Hydropower 67.8 10.7

Marine Power

8.7 1.4

Other Renewables

18 2.8

Storage

Inter-seasonal


Intra-day Depending on self-consumption acceptance, installed distributed batteries can vary from a few GWh to 10 GWh.


Load management


The projected power mix requires development of flexibilities.

Self-consumption



management 15.6 million Evs


Country Consumption

Baseline Case at

target year 480 TWh

GDP: +2% per year Building renovations: 700,000/year

45





Scenario name 2050 mix - 50% nuclear

Source of the scenario ADEME Energy-Climate 2035-

2050

Target horizon 2050


Indicators



Energy (TWh)


RES

PV 2.3 6.2


Reduce share of nuclear to 25% in 2035 (sticking to the Energy Transition for Green Growth Act) and then keeping the production of electricity from nuclear power stable. Biomass, load management and short-term storage for flexibility and easier integration of renewables

Onshore Wind

4.3 11.8

Offshore Wind

0.7 1.9

Hydropower 5.2 14.1

Marine Power

0.07 0.2

Other Renewables

3.65 10

Storage

Inter-seasonal

No inter-seasonal storage.

Weekly Minimal increases of weekly and intra-day storage are needed with the presence of nuclear power plants

Intra-day


Hot Water Load

Management

Second-generation smart meters for dynamic management of loads (hot water, EVs charging, etc.) for intra-day flexibility.


Heating Shedding


management

Country Consumption

Baseline Case at

target year 371*

500,000 renovations per year up to 2030 750,000 renovations between 2030 and 2050 *Energy consumed from the power grid only, not including direct use of primary energy.

46





Scenario name 2050 mix - 80% renewable

electricity


ADEME Energy-Climate Visions 2035-2050

Target horizon 2050


Indicators



Energy (TWh)


RES

PV 7 18.7


Low nuclear share in electricity production. Surplus generated electricity is transformed to gas that is injected into the gas network but no inter-seasonal storage. Biomass, load management and short-term storage for flexibility and easier integration of renewables.

Onshore Wind

7.9 21.1

Offshore Wind

5.2 13.9

Hydropower 5.3 14.1

Marine Power

1 2.7

Other Renewables

3.65 9.8

Storage

Inter-seasonal

No inter-seasonal storage

Weekly 7 Pumped hydropower storage

Intra-day 6 Batteries


Hot Water Load

Management Second-generation

smart meters for dynamic management of loads (hot water, EVs charging, etc.) for intra-day flexibility.


Heating Shedding


management

Country Consumption

Baseline Case at

target year 371*


47





Scenario name 2050 mix - 90% renewable

electricity


ADEME Energy-Climate Visions 2035-2050

Target horizon 2050


Indicators



Energy (TWh)


RES

PV 10.2 23.6


Very high rate of RES deployment coupled with increased capacity for injection of surplus produced electricity into the gas network. Biomass, load management and short-term storage for flexibility and easier integration of renewables. Reinforcement of inter-regional connections for integration of distributed generation.

Onshore Wind

11.2 26

Offshore Wind

7.1 16.5

Hydropower 5.3 12.2

Marine Power

1.45 3.4

Other Renewables

3.65 8.5

Storage

Inter-seasonal

6 power-to-gas

Weekly 7 Pumped hydropower storage

Intra-day 13 Batteries


Hot Water Load

Management Second-generation

smart meters for dynamic management of loads (hot water, EVs charging, etc.) for intra-day flexibility.


Heating Shedding


management

Country Consumption

Baseline Case at

target year 371*


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Scenario name negaWatt 2017 - 2050

Source of the scenario negaWatt

Target horizon 2050


Indicators



Energy (TWh)


RES

PV 147 29.3


Energy efficiency and the widespread adoption of sustainable practices for the reduction of consumption, 100% renewables share and carbon neutral France by 2050.

Onshore Wind

131 26.1

Offshore Wind

115 24

Hydropower 72 14.4

Marine Power

14 2.8

Other Renewables

21 4.2

Storage Inter-

seasonal

Essential at a high share of renewable energy sources


Electrification

Heat pumps Widespread use of electricity for sanitary hot water production and heating

Sanitary Hot Water

EV charging management

Country Consumption

Baseline Case at

target year 463

Electricity consumption decreases up to 2030, but then starts increasing until the target year. Decrease due to energy efficiency and widespread change of behaviour in the society. After 2030, the share of electricity in the total energy consumption increases (due to electrification) and electricity consumption starts increasing again.

49




8.1.2 Netherlands


Scenario name Scenario I (2030 Vision)

Source of the scenario Scenarios for the Dutch electricity supply system (A REPORT PREPARED FOR THE DUTCH MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS)

Target horizon 2030

Indicators Ref 2015 2030 Fundamental factors

Generation Capacity (TWh)

Coal 29.00 30.00

For 2030, nuclear generation remains the same. Decrease in gas generation and an increase in all RES generation. The installed capacity of all fossil fuel generation decreases. Demand Response is on the rise as well as the market share of EVs. Increase in Demand Response specifically using load reduction and load shifting. Heat pumps and EVs play a major role in providing these capacities in the residential and commercial sectors.

Gas 49.00 43.00

Nuclear 4.00 4.00

Others 5.00 9.00

Sun 1.00 12.00

Wind 7.00 43.00

Total 95.00 141.00

Installed power generation capacity

(GW)

Coal 6.6 4.60

Gas 17.8 12.40

Nuclear 0.5 0.50

Others 0.6 1.20

Sun 1.5 15.10

Wind 3.00 12.40

Total 30.00 46.20

Energy Digitalization

Energy Efficiency (GW)

1.00 1.00

Demand Response (GW)

1.00 1.50

EV 3% 17%

wholesale power prices 38.0EUR/MWh 57.0EUR/MWh

CO2-price 150Mton 19% reduction

50





Scenario name Scenario 2

Source of the scenario Scenarios for the Dutch electricity supply system

Target horizon 2050

Indicators Ref. 2015 2050 Fundamental factors


Coal 29.00 0.00 Main increase in renewables is from wind and PV generation. The installed capacity of all fossil fuel generation decreases. Demand Response is on the rise as well as the market share of EVs. All nuclear power generation is stopped. Increase in Demand Response specifically using load reduction and load shifting. Heat pumps and EVs play a major role in providing these capacities in the residential and commercial sectors.

Gas 49.00 22.00

Nuclear 4.00 0000

Others 5.00 2.00

Sun 1.00 46.00

Wind 7.00 114.00

Total 95.00 184.00


(GW)

Coal 6.60 3.40

Gas 17.80 5.60

Nuclear 0.50 0.00

Others 0.60 1.10

Sun 150 56.10

Wind 3.00 35.70

Total 30.00 101.90



1.00 1.00


1.00 1.50

EV 3% 17%



51







Target horizon 2050



Coal 29.00 0.00 Additional increase in generation from RES other than wind and PV (e.g., biomass). The installed capacity of all fossil fuel generation decreases. Demand Response is on the rise as well as the market share of EVs. All nuclear power generation is stopped. Increase in Demand Response specifically using load reduction and load shifting. Heat pumps and EVs play a major role in providing these capacities in the residential and commercial sectors.

Gas 49.00 10.00

Nuclear 4.00 0.00

Others 5.00 12.00

Sun 1.00 46.00

Wind 7.00 116.00

Total 95.00 184.00


(GW)

Coal 6.60 3.40

Gas 17.80 2.60

Nuclear 0.50 0.00

Others 0.60 4.10

Sun 1.50 56.10

Wind 3.00 35.70

Total 30.00 101.90



1.00 1.00


1.00 1.50

EV 3% 17%



52







Target horizon 2050



Coal 29.00 0.00

Increase in PV and wind generation with and an additional increase in the adoption of Demand Response. The installed capacity of all fossil fuel generation decreases. Demand Response is on the rise as well as the market share of EVs. All nuclear power generation is stopped. Increase in Demand Response specifically using load reduction and load shifting. Heat pumps and EVs play a major role in providing these capacities in the residential and commercial sectors.

Gas 49.00 22.00

Nuclear 4.00 0.00

Others 5.00 2.00

Sun 1.00 46.00

Wind 7.00 114.00

Total 95.00 184.00


(GW)

Coal 6.60 3.40

Gas 17.80 5.60

Nuclear 0.50 0.00

Others 0.60 1.10

Sun 1.50 56.10

Wind 3.00 35.70

Total 30.00 101.90



1.00 1.00


1.00 9.80

EV 3% 17%



53





Scenario name Scenario 5 (2050 Vision with Increase in Others RES + EV)


Target horizon 2050



Coal 29.00 0.00

Increase in the production from RES other than wind and PV (e.g., biomass). Very high increase in market share of EVs. The installed capacity of all fossil fuel generation decreases. All nuclear power generation is stopped. Increase in Demand Response specifically using load reduction and load shifting. Heat pumps and EVs play a major role in providing these capacities in the residential and commercial sectors.

Gas 49.00 10.00

Nuclear 4.00 0.00

Others 5.00 12.00

Sun 1.00 46.00

Wind 7.00 116.00

Total 95.00 184.00


(GW)

Coal 6.60 3.40

Gas 17.80 2.60

Nuclear 0.50 0.00

Others 0.60 4.10

Sun 1.50 56.10

Wind 3.00 35.70

Total 30.00 101.90



1.00 1.00


1.00 1.50

EV 3% 50%



54







Target horizon 2050

Indicators Ref. 2015 All Fundamental factors


Coal 29.00 0,00

Increase in all RES technologies. Also, increase of EVs adoption and Demand Response applications. The installed capacity of all fossil fuel generation decreases. All nuclear power generation is stopped. Increase in Demand Response specifically using load reduction and load shifting. Heat pumps and EVs play a major role in providing these capacities in the residential and commercial sectors.

Gas 49.00 10,00

Nuclear 4.00 0,00

Others 5.00 12

Sun 1.00 46

Wind 7.00 114

Total 95.00 182,00


(GW)

Coal 6.60 3.40

Gas 17.80 2.60

Nuclear 0.50 0.00

Others 0.60 4.10

Sun 1.50 56.10

Wind 3.00 35,70

Total 30.00 101.90



1.00 3.00


1.00 10.00

EV 3% 50%



55




8.1.3 Sweden


Scenario name Forte

Source Swedish energy Agency (2016)

Target horizon 2035 (and 2050)

Indicators TWh MW installed Fundamental factors

Energy use (2035)

Fossil 106 In Forte (forceful). it is important that society ensures that energy prices are low. especially for industry. Welfare is based on economic growth and the availability of jobs in traditional industry. Secure supply and access to energy is also one of Forte's main priorities.

Electric 133

Bio energy 100

District heating 51

Total 391

Electricity production (2035)

Nuclear 84 11651

Hydro 69 16200

CHP 21 5000

Wind 15 5000

Sun 1 1000

Wave power 0 0

Small scale bio 0 0

Total 190 38851

Energy system and production

Strong expansion of large-scale electricity production facilities. mainly nuclear. Fuels and CO2 prices will reduce the use of fossil fuels by 20% till 2035. in favour of electricity and biofuels. Electricity is generated at a high and even level and that yield a surplus. 50% renewables in the energy system.

Transport Focus from government and industry on electricity-based transport solutions (including electric roads in the road network in a triangle Stockholm-Gothenburg-Malmö). 4 TWh electric transport in 2035 (total energy use for transport: 85 TWh)

Policy instruments

The government prioritises the competitiveness of energy-intensive industry. and the supply perspective dominates energy policy. The climate is still a current issue. and to secure access to electricity with low carbon dioxide emissions. the government is investing in new nuclear reactors to replace those reaching retirement. The cost for this is passed on to electricity customers in the form of a newly created “atomic premium”. However. industry does not participate in paying for this. Property tax and nuclear power tax. which are deemed to inhibit major new investments in power plants. are abolished. The environmental adaptation of hydropower becomes more limited.

Markets Energy products are traded on a global market and at competitive prices. Demand side flexibility is limited.

Challenges Households will have to bear higher cost of electricity. Slow climate improvements. Slow research and innovation outside energy-intensive industry.

56





Scenario name Legato




Energy use (2035)

Fossil 2 Legato (tied together). involves reducing the energy system's environmental impact and helping to resolve a global issue. Important factors here are ecological sustainability and global justice. which characterise its solutions.

Electric 116

Bio energy 119

District heating 29

Total 266


Nuclear 0 0

Hydro 63 16200

CHP 11 2500

Wind 50 16500

Sun 10 11000

Wave power 0 0

Small scale bio 0 0

Total 134 46200

Because of extending the electricity certificate system. resource-efficient renewable energy is expanded. Major expanse of onshore wind. Nearly 100% renewable energy system.

Transport There is less passenger transport. less private motoring and digitalisation is used to promote sustainable transport and greater accessibility to local service functions. The fossil-free transport system is powered by electricity and biofuels. Fossil fuels phase out by 2030. Digital ride-sharing reduces dependence on privately owned cars. 7 TWh electric transport in 2035 (total energy use for transport: 34 TWh).

Policy instruments

There are strong climate and energy policy instruments that influence industry towards more resource-efficient operations. which. among other things. has been favourable to the formation of industrial clusters. Carbon dioxide tax is central. which provides good conditions for more mature renewable technologies to compete without special support.

Markets Over the years. prices on the electricity market become more and more varied. opening the way for more energy storage. Electricity users are more flexible and plan their electricity use according to times of availability. The security of the energy system is based on effective energy markets with a wide range. high flexibility and good preparedness to manage the consequences of any disruptions. Demand side flexibility is medium to high.

Challenges The government will need to invest large sums in research. development and demonstrations in order to convert industry to become bio-based. Research and development regarding the electricity grid is also important to secure demand response. Especially during winter. the system with a high proportion of variable electricity production will require large flexibility in electricity use. a flexibility that does not exist today.

57





Scenario name Espressivo



Indicators TWh MW Fundamental factors Technological development

Energy use (2035)

Fossil 92 Espressivo (expressive) is very much based on people's own initiatives and consumers who want to have individual solutions and flexibility. Here. green energy is a strong driving force. Decentralisation. small-scale private production and purchasing services are important elements. Digitalisation is developing completely new services.

Technology in the area is developing towards greater automation. digitalisation. new types of control and regulation and system architectures that are expected to provide the opportunity to maintain and even increase the security of supply in systems that have a greater number of decentralised and small-scale systems. This also presupposes the development of different types of energy storage solutions. which increases the opportunity to be self-sufficient when supply is disrupted.

Electric 126

Bio energy 90

District heating

41

Total 350


Nuclear 34 4745

Hydro 60 16200

CHP 16 3800

Wind 20 6000

Sun 25 30000

Wave power

0 0

Small scale bio

0 0

Total

155 60745


Citizens have greater opportunity to design their transport and energy solutions. for example many people want to produce their own energy and trading of electricity and heat is between households and other customers. There is a reduced electricity load on the central network. For industry. the solutions will be large-scale wind power (usually offshore) combined with industrial CHP plants. where different industries can help each other to balance production and electricity use. New investments in the Swedish electricity network are being made at the local level. where there are private initiatives to make the networks smart and optimised for self-sufficiency or to be as independent from the central network as possible. There is little interest in investing in new centralised production. except for hydropower and the national grid. which continue to be necessary for balancing power and supplying electricity to major cities and industries. The total use of energy does not differ very much from today. but the distribution and markets have changed. and the system is characterised by a high degree of flexibility. 75% of renewables in the energy system.

Transport This scenario accommodates a wide range of different forms of transport and allows individuals to choose between cars. self-driving cars. passenger traffic. electric bikes. etc. Electric vehicles are common and are charged using one's own electricity. which is a new form of balancing service. 5 TWh electric transport in 2035 (total energy use for transport: 74TWh).

Policy instruments

The government’s operational regulations has decreased in favour of regions and municipalities. Regulations and policy instruments are adapted and created in order to simplify and support individual solutions. The position of consumers on the energy market is stronger than before. It is easier to come together in cooperatives to invest in the joint production of electricity. When actors try to find local solutions. there can be a

58




risk of sub- optimisation. which can result in inefficient planning on the larger scale. Authorities and municipalities provide a large quantity of networks to reduce this risk.

Markets Extensive expansion of micro-production. micro-storage. and micro-grids in Sweden. Nord Pool is extended to the whole of Europe. a European pool. Nordic hydropower is becoming an increasingly attractive regulation resource on the continental European electricity market. The emergence of many microgrids also leads to the formation of small. local spot markets. However. the markets are governed by common rules determined by a European electricity exchange committee. More and more people are completely disconnecting from the network due to the development of their own seasonal storage.

Challenges Security of supply in small-scale. decentralised energy systems due to possible difficulties in predictability and the synchronised control of these systems. Sub-optimization of the system as a whole. Climate improvement can be slow. Great difference in energy use between different groups.

59





Scenario name Vivace

Source Swedish Energy Agency (2016)



Technological development

Energy use (2035)

Fossil 38 Vivace (lively). has a strong climate focus. Sweden has chosen to become a forerunner in green growth and develops the export market for environmental clean technology and a new bio industry. This entails an investment in new types of jobs.

Electric 140

Bio energy 127

District heating 41

Total 346


Nuclear 26 3682 Information about most things in society flows and is available to all.

Hydro 65 20000

CHP 24 5700

Wind 30 10000

Sun 10 11000

Wave power 0 0

Small scale bio 0 0

Total 155 50382


Energy is driving societal changes and facilitates new technologies that help to improve the climate. Total energy consumption has decreased gently towards 2035 because of higher efficiency and technological developments. The government is investing heavily in renewable electricity production. such as wind. solar and wave power. Network companies invest heavily in transmission capacity in the form of advanced DC cables linking Sweden with the continent so that Swedish customers can take full advantage of the European electricity market. 100% renewables in the energy system.

The electricity grid is continuously developed with new technology for control and metering. This is to enable the export of new resource-smart network technology.

Transport Self-driving vehicles. buses and cars. have been allowed to take more space. Transport based on electricity and various forms of biofuels form the foundation.

Policy instruments

More enabling than prohibiting policy instruments. However. still regulations are needed to increase the cost of fossil fuels. High investments in research and demonstration and innovation. Policy instruments to promote renewable production remains.

Markets Sweden is a test arena for a series of market introductions. New system services increase the flexibility of the electricity system. highly and entirely automated demand side flexibility. The price variations are passed on to the power exchange. This raises the value of regulating and balancing power. There is a European single market. All trading is automated. This means that Swedish energy producers do not need to resolve all surplus and deficit situations on their own.

Challenges Massive upscaling of new technology. Still a high use of energy.

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Scenario name Scenario I - More Solar and Wind


IVA- Future Electicity Production in Sweden

Target horizon 2030-2050

Indicators TWh Observations


Hydro 65

In this scenario. variable energy resources can account up to almost 50% of the total annual energy consumption.

But due to variability associated with the

production sources. several technical supplementary

systems should be in place to handle these wide

uncertainties.

Wind 55

Solar 15

Bioenergy 25

Nuclear 0

Total 160

Energy Production This scenario considers high percentage of variable energy production resources for about 30-50% of total electricity production. Hydropower generation is assumed to beat today's level. while bio-fuel production will be almost doubled.

Major Requirements

Investment in the storage to make efficient use of excess or deficient energy production. Examples could be batteries and power-to-gas.

Policy instruments Since most of the neighbouring countries are also focussing and increasing the variable power generation percentage. therefore it is required to have proper policy and strategy to handle these surplus and deficits.

Markets With this scenario. the installed capacity would be greater than demand most of the part of the year. so at the time of surplus production even lasting for a few hours. electricity prices will be very low or even negative. Thus. proper production control and market mechanism should be in place.

Challenges For this scenario to be realistic. the transmission capacity should be expanded. including in Sweden and between countries.

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Scenario name Scenario 2 - More Bioenergy




Indicators (proposition in this table. to be specified based on the

ones defined in T2.1) TWh Observations


Hydro 65

This alternative has potential to make

Sweden self-sufficient in terms of both energy

and power. Although there is a risk for

increased investments in larger scale

bioenergy solutions due to limitation of

biomass competition.

Wind 40

Solar 5

Bioenergy 50

Nuclear 0

Total 160

Energy Production Here. in addition to bioenergy. there will be an expansion of wind energy to around 30-50 TWh and solar energy to 5TWh. although the hydro energy will remain at the same level. Thus. the variable energy percentage would be around 25-30%.

Major Requirements

The biofuel production plant will mainly be located where the CHP plant are present today. or in heat systems where the CHPs are not present. Thus. this scenario doesn’t require significant expansion of energy infrastructure.

Policy instruments Since there is a good percentage of variable energy resources. it is required to have proper policy and strategy to handle these surplus and deficits in the power production.

Markets Heat production is closely related to the production of electricity in CHP plants. It is very important in this alternative. to aim for better coordination between the heat and electricity markets

Challenges Logistics for biofuel is required to be developed for ensuring the proper supply and availability of the fuel. More advanced and active forestry techniques should be used for this purpose. More technical development and demonstrations are required for CHP technology to make it reach to the full potential.

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Scenario name Scenario 3 - New Nuclear Power


IVA- Future Electricity Production in Sweden


Indicators (proposition in this table. to be specified

based on the ones defined in T2.1) TWh Observations


Hydro 65

This system does not require any substantial

investments in new systems. The

development of various new concepts

is in process. The technology

development and internationally gained experiences should be monitored in order to

make the best decision in choosing the best

technology.

Wind 20

Solar 5

Bioenergy 20

Nuclear 50

Total 160

Energy Production This scenario is mainly to build new nuclear power plants in order to replace the old ones which exist today. However. the hydro power will remain at today’s level. while wind. solar and biofuel power will increase.

Major Requirements

The major requirements are building up the nuclear power plants which can replace the existing nuclear plant. There is also the possibility to build smaller nuclear power plants likely to be in range of 300 MW.

Policy instruments With the increment in the nuclear power and increased production from renewables. there should be proper policy framework to bring in more nuclear power plants which can replace the old ones. Also. there could be policies for setting up smaller plants which are easier to build and installed

Markets The percentage of power production from variable energy resources is below 20% in this scenario. but there is a scope for better market mechanism for electricity trading

Challenges Expansion of the transmission systems could be a key challenges in order to evacuate this power to the load centres. so there should be proper strategy for handling this.

63





Scenario name Scenario 4 - More Hydro Power




Indicators (proposition in this table. to be specified

based on the ones defined in T2.1) TWh Observations


Hydro 85

This scenario with increased hydro-power has potential to make Sweden self-sufficient in energy and power. Also. hydropower is most flexible energy

source.

Wind 35

Solar 5

Bioenergy 35

Nuclear 0

Total 160

Energy Production This scenario is mainly related to the expansion of the hydro power share mainly by improving the efficiency of existing power plants. already exploited rivers and streams as well as some new water bodies. The percentage of variable energy resources is around 25% and the system is mainly balanced.

Major Requirements

Building up new hydro plants would mainly occur in northern part of Sweden while the major load centres lies in southern. so there shall be investment and expansion of the transmission capacity to transport this power from northern to southern part

Policy instruments Hydropower expansion goes from today’s level of 65 TWh to 85 TWh in future. It also requires the expansion in the four protected rivers in Norrland region to generate more hydro power. There should be proper policy framework and legislation changes to accommodate this expansion

Markets

Challenges Building up required transmission capability

Deliverable 2.2 Scenario descriptions for active ... · Ankur SRIVASTAVA, David STEEN (Chalmers)...

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