Deepwater Oil & Gas Market - Quest Offshore

25
1 Deepwater Oil & Gas Market Continued Acceleration Led by Subsea Technology Paul H. Hillegeist President & COO Quest Offshore Resources, Inc. [email protected] August 21, 2013

Transcript of Deepwater Oil & Gas Market - Quest Offshore

Page 1: Deepwater Oil & Gas Market - Quest Offshore

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Deepwater Oil & Gas Market Continued Acceleration Led by

Subsea Technology

Paul H. Hillegeist President & COO Quest Offshore Resources, Inc. [email protected] August 21, 2013

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Table of contents:

Why Subsea? Market at Pinnacle & Going Higher

Forecast for Higher Offshore Spending

Current Landscape for Subsea Awards Robust Exploration Outlook

Rig Supply Driving Record Drilling Pace Key Regions – Forecast Growth Led by GoM & Africa Frontier Areas Offer Significant Potential

Subsea Award Trends & Forecast Global Supply Chain Potential Pinch Points

Shipyard Fabrication Capacity SURF Marine Construction Supply Engineering Manpower Subsea Systems (Wellheads, Trees & Assoc. Hardware) Tier 2 & 3 OEM Subsea Suppliers

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1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's

Ave

rage

Wat

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De

pth

(Fe

et)

# S

ub

sea

Tre

es

Startup Decade

Number of New Subsea Trees Average Water Depth (Feet)

Global Subsea Trees by Decade Average Water Depth

Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc

Products and market segments

Proxy for deepwater drilling & development activity

Subsea & related hardware components

Production umbilicals

ROV services & MarCon (URF install)

Subsea workover & intervention opportunities

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World Subsea Production Capex 2013-2018e Forecast $74.5bn

Source: HolyGrail_August 2013.xls

0

100

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$0

$5,000

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tart

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$M

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Startup Year

$MM - subsea production umbilicals installed

$MM - subsea manifolds

$MM - tree control pkg (flying leads, jumper, MCS, HPU, UTA, J-Plate)

$MM - subsea trees & control pod: (chokes, sensor pkg.)

No. subsea trees (well completions) by onstream year

Km - subsea production umbilicals installed

Subsea Systems55%

Subsea Processing

23%

Subsea Whld6%

Subsea Assoc/Hardware

16%

2020 Global Subsea Spend $28.6 Billion

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Subsea Tree Awards Largest 1H Activity in History

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mb

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Sub

sea

Tre

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war

ds

Award Year

Q1 Q2 FY Awards

Source: Quest Subsea Database June 2013

2013 FY awards are preliminary forecast @ Aug. 2013

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Global Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2000-2015)

Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc

554

727

866775 754

9911055

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200

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1200

# S

ub

sea

Tre

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war

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Award Timing

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Global Exploration Outlook

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Exploration Targets by Hemisphere 2009-2017 2,523 Undrilled Exploration Targets

No

. Exp

lora

tio

n T

arge

ts

Drilled includes 23 wells spud 1H-2013

Drilled includes 17 wells spud 1H-2013

Drilled includes 19 wells spud 1H-2013

Drilled includes 32 wells spud 1H-2013

Drilled includes 17 wells spud 1H-2013

SOURCE: Quest Global Prospects Quarterly June 2013

265 291

151

349415

576417

469

482

579

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Africa/Med. Asia-Pacific North America North Sea/Arctic South America

Drilled Undrilled

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Key Regions – Africa (East, West & Med.) Exploration & Appraisal Drilling

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20

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

E&

A W

ell C

ou

nt

Spud Year

>=7500 FSW

4001-7499 FSW

1501-4000 FSW

0-1500 FSW

SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017

33-55 semis+dS

59-63 semis+dS 67% Growth

297 e&a wells

496 e&a wells

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Key Regions – Asia Pacific Exploration & Appraisal Drilling

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

E&

A W

ell C

ou

nt

Spud Year

>=7500 FSW

4001-7499 FSW

1501-4000 FSW

0-1500 FSW

SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017

278 e&a wells

363 a&a wells

50-53 semi+Ds

46-47 semi+Ds

31% Growth

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Key Regions – North Sea Exploration & Appraisal Drilling

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

E&

A W

ell C

ou

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Spud Year

>=7500 FSW

4001-7499 FSW

1501-4000 FSW

0-1500 FSW

SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017

35-48 Floating Rigs

50-55 Floating Rigs 309 e&a wells

434 e&a wells 41% Growth

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Key Regions – GoM in North America Exploration & Appraisal Drilling

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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ell C

ou

nt

Spud Year

>=7500 FSW

4001-7499 FSW

1501-4000 FSW

0-1500 FSW

Effects of Post Moratorium period in US-GOM

SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017

30-52 semis+Ds

414 e&a wells

160 e&a wells

61-66 semis+Ds 159% Growth

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Key Regions – Brazil in South America

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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ell C

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Spud Year

>=7500 FSW

4001-7499 FSW

1501-4000 FSW

0-1500 FSW

SOURCE: QGPQ Exploration Working File June 2013/EXP FRCST 2009to2017

64-82 semis+Ds 82-94 semis+Ds 418 e&a wells 516 a&a wells

Exploration & Appraisal Drilling

23% Growth

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Emerging Frontier Regions

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Exploration – Emerging Frontier Areas

18%

28%

12%

12%

3%

18%

9%

East Africa

West Africa

Mediterranean

Arctic

South America

North & Central America

Other

27%

43%

30%Super-Majors

Independents

Nationals

Today Led by 20 Operators w 33 Rigs

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Exploration – Emerging Frontier Areas

East Africa (Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Madagascar)

West Africa (Angola Pre-Salt, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Benin, Namibia,)

Mediterranean (Israel, Cyprus, Libya, Morocco)

Arctic (Greenland, Norwegian Barents, Alaska, Kara Sea, Russian Barents)

South America (Falklands, French Guiana, Guyana, Suriname, Uruguay)

The Americas (Mexico, Bahamas, Nova Scotia, Nicaragua)

Ireland, Canary Is., SW Portugal & deepwater Red Sea. Black Sea, Okhotsk Sea & Myanmar

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Subsea Award Trends

& Forecast

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Global Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2001-2015)

Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc

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ROW South America

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North Sea Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2001-2015)

Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc

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Norway UK Other

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Africa Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2001-2015)

Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc

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Angola East Africa Nigeria North Africa Other Transform Margin

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Asia Subsea Tree Awards Multi-Year Trend Analysis (2001-2015)

Source: Quest Offshore Resources, Inc

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Global Supply Chain

Potential Pinch Points

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Growing Lead-times & Burgeoning Back-logs Global Fabrication Shipyard Backlog

0

172,250

344,500

516,750

689,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Date

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nn

es

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Accommodation

Drill Semi

Drillship

Fixed Platform

FLNG

FPSO

FPU

FSO

FSRU

Jackup

MarCon

Onshore Modules

Semi

Spar

Tender Assist Rig

TLP

Turret

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Marine Construction Supply / Demand Balance Worldwide by Activity

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SS Hardware, FPS & Other Demand 0-14,FLEX,SPU Demand 15-24 Pipeline Demand

25+ Pipeline Demand Net Supply Utilization

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Total Well Demand (Expl & Devp) Rigs Contracted Rigs Needed

Subsea Well Demand & Floating Rig Supply Analog for Subsea Wellhead Demand