Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy...
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Transcript of Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy...
![Page 1: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Decustering, Rates, and b-valuesor
Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology
Andy Michael
![Page 2: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Gardner and Knopoff DeclusteringMethod:
Gardner and Knopoff (BSSA, 1974):Magnitude-dependent spatial circles and time windows
Problem: Spatial circles too small for large earthquakesSolution: Use radii based on fault rupture lengths from
Wells and Coppersmith (BSSA, 1994)
![Page 4: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Christophersen et al. Declustering Radii Choices
![Page 7: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
SCSN M≥2 1984-2010 Radii = Uhrhammer ΔT = 1 day
Nmain=32490, p=0
![Page 9: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
SCSN M≥2 1984-2010 Radii = G-K ΔT = 1 day
Nmain=26992, p=3*10^-7
![Page 10: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
SCSN M≥2 1984-2010 Radii = G-K ΔT = 3 days
Nmain=19494, p=0.002
![Page 11: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
SCSN M≥2 1984-2010 Radii = G-K ΔT = 7 days
Nmain=12892, p=0.56
![Page 12: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
SCSN M≥2 1984-2010 Radii = G-K ΔT = 100 days
Nmain=1185, p=0.89
![Page 13: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
N=79661
![Page 14: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
N=13529
![Page 15: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
N=8124
![Page 16: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Decustering, Rates, and b-values or Declustering: the Necessary Evil of Statistical Seismology Andy Michael.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/5697c01f1a28abf838cd1e62/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Issues for UCERF3:Decluster and then estimate rates orEstimate rates using an ETAS model directly.
If declustering then which method or how many methods?
National Maps use Gardner-Knopoff which lowers b-valueETAS uses the same b-value for background and clusters
Could decluster with a stochastic ETAS approach and maintainthe same b-value, good for ETAS but bad for National Maps
Could decluster with Gardner-Knopoff and then do ETASwith a different magnitude-frequency distributionthat combines to the correct total distribution.
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