Decision Support Systems_A Summary, Problems, And Future Trends

7/29/2019 Decision Support Systems_A Summary, Problems, And Future Trends

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D ecis ion Support System s: A Sum m ary,Problems, and Future Trends355

M . C . E RDepartment o f Com puter Science, St. Patrick's College, NationalUniversity of Ireland, M aynooth , Co. Kildare, Ireland.This paper critically examines issues confronting DecisionSupport Systems(DSS) in the business/management area. Dueto the lack of acceptable definition ~f DSS, the characteristicsan d com pon ents of D SS are discu~,~,~d in de tail. It is poi ntedout that work activities that require decision making form aspectrum of problems ranging fro m structured problem tounstructured problem . It is further pointed out th at personalityand cognitive style can influence individuals" decision styles,

and thus different decision aids w ill be sought. DSS develop-ment and applications are briefly described. Finally, the majorproblems fac ing current D SS s are outlined, and the futuretrends of DSS are described.Keywords: Decision Support Systems, Types of Problems, De-cision Styles, Developm ent, Applications, UnsolvedProblems, Future Trends

M.C. Er is Foundation Professor andHead of D epartme nt of Com puterScience at St. Patrick's College, Na-tional Univ ersity of Ireland. Previ-ously he was W.F. Jam es Chair Pro-fessor at the St. Fra ncis Xa vier Uni-versity in C anad a. Dr. E r has pub-lished num erous refereed papers inmany international journals, and is awidely soug ht referee, regularly ap-proached by m any international jour-nals to referee subm itted researchpapers.North-HollandDecision Support Systems 4 (1988) 355-3363

1 . ~ n t r o d u c t i o nT h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e f i e l d k n o w n a s I n f o r -

m a t i o n S y s t e m s s t a r t e d a s E l e c t r o n ic D a t aP r o c e s si n g ( E D P ) , t h e M a n a g e m e n t I n f o r n i a t io nS y s t e m ( M I S ) , a n d f i n a l l y D e c i s i o n S u p p o r t S y s -t e m ( D S S ) . E D P p r i m a r i l y d e a l s w i t h t h e t r a n s a c -t i o n p r o c e s s i n g t y p e o f a p p l i c a t i o n s . T h i s i s q u i t ee x p e c t e d g i v e n t h e f a c t t h a t c o m p u t e r s w e r e o r i g i -n a l l y d e s i g n e d a n d b u i l t f o r s o lv i n g t h e p r o b l e m so f t e d i o u s c a l c u l a t i o n s ( s u c h a s c a l c u l a t i n g l o g a -r i t h m t a b l e a n d b a l l is t ic t a b l e ) a n d l a b o r i o u s c l e ri -c a l t a s k s ( s u c h a s c e n s u s t a b u l a t i o n ) . T h e m a i np u r p o s e w a s t o de v e lo p a p p l i c a t i o n s p r o g r a m s t h a tw e r e c a p a b l e o f a u t o m a t i n g m a n u a l w o r k s. C o m -p u t c 'r i se d s y s t e m s s o d e v e l o p e d w e r e p i e c e m e a la n d i s o la t e d f r o m e a c h o t h e r . F u r t h e r m o r e , p u r ea p p l i c a t i o n s i n E D P d o n o t q u i t e m a t c h t h e i m a g eo f g e n e r a l -p u r p o s e c o m p u t e r w h i c h i s c a p a b l e o fd o i n g a n y t h i n g t h a t is c o m p u t a b l e . I n t h e m i d6 0 ' s , t h e t e r m M a n a g e m e n t I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m( M I S ) w a s c o i n e d t o s i g n al a n e w a t t e m p t t od e v e l op i n t e g r a te d c o m p u t e r - b a s e d i n f o r m a t i o ns y s t e m s t h a t w e r e c a p a b l e o f p r o c e s s in g a n ds u p p l y i n g a l l i n f o r m a t i o n n e e d e d b y m a n a g e m e n t .A s i t t u r n s o u t , t h i s a m b i t i o u s a i m r e s u l t s i n g r e a td i s a p p o i n t m e n t d u e t o t h e i m m a t u r i t y o f t e c h n o l -o g i e s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s ( D e a r d e n , 1 9 7 2 ; K l e i na n d H i r s c h h e i m , 19 85 ). T o c o m p l e m e n t E D P a n da ~so t o s h i f t th e a t t e n t i o n a w a y f r o m M I S , t h et e r m D e c i s i o n S u p p o r t S y s t e m ( D S S ) w a s c o i n e db y K e e n a n d S c o tt M o r t o n ( 1 97 8 ) to d e n o t e t h eo t h e r a s p e c t o f i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g , n a m e l y t h ep r o v i s i o n o f i n f o r m a t i o n f o r s u p p o r t i n g m a n a g e -m e n t d e c i s io n m a k i n g . H e n c e E D P a n d D S S a r ec o m p l e m e n t a r y h a l v e s o f C o m p u t e r - B a s e d I n f o r -m a t i o n S y s t e m ( C B I S ) ( s e e f i g . 1 ) .

U n f o r t u n a t e l y , a f t e r a d e c a d e o f t h e d e v e l o p -m e n t o f D S S , t h e r e i s s t i l l n o a c c e p t e d d e f i n i t i o no f D S S . T o q u o t e o n e o f t h e o r i g i n a t o r s o f D S S ,K e e n ( 1 9 8 6 ) s a y s :

' R i g h t f r o m t h e s t a r t o f t h e D S S m o v e m e n t ,a n d e v e n n o w , t h e r e h a s b e e n n o e s t a b l i s h e dd e f i n i t i o n o f D S S ?

016%9236/88/$3.50 1988, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. (North-Holland)


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356 M. C E'r / Decision Support System s

ED

CFISFig. ] . Electronic data processing (ED P) an d decis ion suppo rtsys tem (DSS) arc complem entary h a lves o f computer-basedin form at ion sys tem (CB|S).T h i s i s v e r y s u r p r i s i n g a n d d i s t u r b i n g . O n e n a t u -r a l l y ra i se s q u e s t io n s a b o u t t h e f u t u r e o f D S S : w i l li t f o l l o w t h e f o o t - s t e p s o f M I S ? A f i e l d w i t h o u td e f i n i t i o n h a s t h e f l e x i b i l it y o f e x p a n s i o n a n dc h a n g i n g d ir e c t io n , b u t a l s o h a s t h e d a n g e r o ff a l l i n g a p ar t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o g e n e r -a t e h e a t e d d e b a te a n d d i s a gr e e m e n t . A s a n e x a m -p l e , a r e t h e f o l l o w i n g s D S S s o r t o o l s o f D S S s : n o n - p r o g r a m m a b l e c a lc u l a to r , p r o g r a m m a b l e c a lc u l a to r , f inan c ia l mo de l l ing , sp readshee t , s ta t is t ics packa ge, P E R T / C P M / I i n e a r p r og r am m i n g , s i m u l a t i o n , expe r t sys tem.F o r i n s t an c e , n o n - p r o g r a m m a b l e o r p r o g r a m m a -b l e c a l c u l a t o r c a n b e u s e d f o r c a l c u l a t i o n d u r i n gd e c i s i o n m a k i n g - i s i t a D S S ? S i m i l a r l y ,P E R T / C P M c a n b e u se d f o r g e n e ra t in g al te r n a-t i v es f o r f a c i l i t a ti n g d e c i s i o n m a k i n g b y c h a n g i n gp a r a m e t e r s a n d a s s u m p t i o n s - i s i t a l s o a D S S ?

O n e m a y a r g u e t h a t i t i s p o s s i b l e t o u s e t h ei n t e n t i o n o f a d e s i g n t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e D S S f r o mn o n - D S S . H o w e v e r , i t i s e a s y t o f i n d c o u n t e r e x -a m p l e s . F o r i n s t a n c e , i s a s t a t i s t i c s p a c k a g e aDS S? - c lea r ly a s ta t i s t i c s packa ge was no t in -t e n d e d t o b e a D S S b u t i s u s e d h e a v i ly in d e c i s i o nm a k i n g u n d e r s o m e c i rc u m s t a n c e s S i m i l a rl y , s o m ee a r l y f i n a n c i a l m o d e l l i n g p a c k a g e s ( G r e e n w o o d ,1 9 6 9 ) t h a t w e r e n o t i n t e n d e d t o b e D S S s c a n b ea d a p t e d t o b e D S S s b y a l t e r i n g t h e u s e r i n t e r f a c e .N e v e r t h e l e s s , s o m e a u t h o r s h a v e a t t e m p t e d t od e f i n e t h e t e r m D e c i s i o n S u p p o r t S y s t e m . T h e i r

d e f i n i t i o n s , h o w e v e r , c a n b e f a u l t e d i n o n e w a y o ra n o t h e r F o r i n s t a n c e , K e e n a n d S c o t t M o r t o n( 1 9 7 8 ) g a v e a n e a r l i e r d e f i n i t i o n o f D S S :

' T h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e a n d s u i t a b l ec o m p u t e r - b a s e d t e c h n o l o g y t o h e l p i m p r o v et h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f m a n a g e r i a l d e c i s i o nm a k i n g i n s e m i - s t r u c t u r e d t a s ks . '

H e r e , t h e p h r a s e ' a v a i l a b l e a n d s u i t a b le c o m p u t e r -b a s e d t e c h n o l o g y ' d o e s n o t h a v e a u n i q u e m e a n -i n g , a n d v a r i e s w i t h t i m e . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e t e r m' s e m i - s t r u c t u r e d t a s k s ' is u n d e f i n e d , a n d m a y v a r yf r o m p e r s o n t o p e r s o n . T h e r e a d e r i s i n v i t e d t oc o n s i d e r w h e t h e r o r n o t c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n i s aD S S .

A g a i n s t t h i s b a c k g r o u n d , O w e n a n d V o l p a t o( 1 98 5 ) m a d e a n i n s i g h t f u l c o m m e n t f r o m t h e p r a c -t i c a l p o i n t o f v i e w :

' A w i d e v a r i e t y o f c o m p u t e r b a s e d s y s t e m sh a v e b e e n s o l d f o r m a n y y e a r s u n d e r t h el a b e l o f D e c i s i o n S u p p o r t S y s t e m s T h e s eh a v e i n c l u d e d f i n a n c i a l m o d e l l i n g p ac k a g e s ,i n f o r m a t i o n r e t r i e v a l a n d s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i ss y s t e m s . M o s t h a v e f a i l e d t o b e u s e d b ye x e c u t i v e s , b e c a u s e t h e y h a v e n o t g o t t o t h eh e a r t o f h o w m o s t d e ci s i on s a r e ta k e n - t h a ti s o n t h e b a s i s o f p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e a n ds u b j ec t iv e j u d g e m e n t , e l e m e n t s w h i c h w e r ep r e v i o u s l y c o n s i d e r e d a s b e i n g i n c a p a b l e o fa n a l y s i s b u t o n e s w h i c h a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l yp o w e r f u l e n o u g h t o a l t e r a n y c o u r s e o f a c -t i o n . '

I n t h e n e x t t w o s e c t io n s , w e g i v e a m o r e p r e c i s ec h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n o f D S S . I n t h e s u b s e q u e n t s e c -t i o n s , w e d i s c u s s t y p e s o f p r o b l e m s , d e c i s i o n s t y l es ,D S S d e v e l o p m e n t a n d a p p l i c a t i o n s , p r o b l e m s f a c -i n g D S S a n d i t s f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t .

2. Characterist ics and Components of DSSF a c e d w i t h th e d i f f i c u l ty o f d e f i n i n g D S S ,

S p r a g u e a n d C a r l s o n ( 1 9 8 2 ) f e l t e a s i e r t o g i v e al i s t o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f D S S :

T h e y t e n d t o b e a i m e d a t t h e l e s s w e l l s t r u c -t u r e d , u n d e r - s p e c if i e d p r o b l e m s t h a t u p p e r - l ev e lm a n a g e r s t y p i c a l l y f a c e .


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M. C Er / Decision Support System s 357 They ag tempt t o combine the use of model ' g o ra n a l y t i c t e c h n i q u e s w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l d a t a a c c e s s

and re t r i eva l func t ions T h e y sp e c i f i c a l l y fo c u s o n f e a t u re s t h a t m a k et h e m e a s y t o u s e b y n o n c o m p u t e r p e o p l e i n a ni n t e r a c t iv e m o d e . T h e y e m p h a s i ze f l e x i b i li ty a n d a d a p t a b i l i t y t oa c c o m m o d a t e c h a n g e s i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a n dd e c i s i o n -m a k i n g a p p ro a c h o f t h e u se r .

T o t h is l is t, w e a d d a n o t h e r c h a ra c t e r is t i c o f D S S : T h e y s u p p o r t b u t d o n o t r e p la c e u p p e r -l e v e lm a n a g e r s i n d e c i s i o n m a k i n g .T h i s c h a ra c t e r is t ic i s i m p o r t a n t a s i t d i ff e r e n t i a t e sD S S f r o m E x p e r t S y s te m .A n o t h e r a p p ro a c h t a k e n b y K i n g (1 9 8 3 ) i s t oc h a ra c t e r i ze D S S b y a l i s t o f c o m p o n e n t s t h a t a n yi n t e g ra t e d D S S sh o u l d h a v e :(a ) dec i s ion model s ,(b ) i n t e r a c t i v e c o m p u t e r h a rd w a re a n d so f t w a re ,(c ) a da t a base ,( d ) a d a t a b a s e m a n a g e m e n t s y s te m ,(e ) g r a p h i c a l a n d o t h e r so p h i s t ic a t e d d i sp la y s ,( f ) a m o d e l l i n g l a n g u a g e t h a t i s ' u s e r f r i e n d l y ' .A s t h e t y p e s o f p ro b l e m s t o b e so l v e d , d o m a i n s o fa p p l i c a b l e k n o w l e d g e , a n d t y p e s o f t a rg e t e d u se r sare no t spec i f i ed , King ' s (1983) se t o f DSSs i sl a rg e r t h a n t h e s e t o f D S S s n o rm a l l y p e rc e i v e d b yo t h e r s (K e e n a n d S c o t t Mo r t o n 1 9 7 8 , H u f f , 1 9 8 5 ;H o g u e , 1 9 85 ; M e a d o r , G u y o t e a n d R o s e n f e l d ,1 9 8 6 ) i n t h e a r e a o f i n fo rm a t i o n sy s t e m s F o re x a m p l e , c o m p u t e r - a s s i s t e d m e d i c a l d i a g n o s i s a n dt o w n p l a n n i n g a r e a l so i n c l u d e d i n K i n g ' s s e t o fD S S s

3. Dec ision, Support and Systems

w o rd d e c i s i o n i n D S S i m p l i e s p ro b l e m so l v i n g .In d e e d , d e c i s i o n a n d p ro b l e m so l v i n g g o h a n d - i n -h a n d - i n m a k i n g d e c i s io n s , o n e i s so lv i n g p ro b -l ems; converse ly , i n so lv ing prob lems, one i s mak-i n g d e c i s i o n a t e a c h s t e p . F u r t h e rm o re , p ro b l e mso l v i n g i m p l i e s t h e u se o f k n o w l e d g e i n t h e p ro -c e s s o f so l v i n g p ro b l e m . H e n c e , a p p l i c a t i o n s o fk n o w l e d g e , i n t h e fo rm o f m o d e l s , n e e d t o b eincorpora t ed in to DSSs . To be e f fec t ive , i t i se s se n t i a l t o k n o w w h e t h e r a d e c i s i o n t o b e m a d ew i ll b e m a d e b y a n i n d i v i d u a l o r a g ro u p b a se d o ns ing le o r mu l t ip l e c r i t e ri a .T h e su p p o r t a sp e c t o f D S S i m p l i e s t h e u se o fc o m p u t e r a n d so f t w a re t e c h n o l o g i e s t o su p p o r tm a n a g e r s d u r i n g t h e p ro c e s s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g .H e n c e i t i s n e c e s sa ry to u n d e r s t a n d p re f e r e n c e s o fp e o p l e w h i l e t h e y a r e m a k i n g d e c i s io n s . T h e re a r efo u r t y p e s o f su p p o r t t h a t c a n b e p ro v i d e d t od e c i s i o n m a k e r s , a n d a r e su m m a r i ze d b e l o w :(1) Passive Support. P ro v i d e d e c i s i o n m a k e r s w i t hD S S t h a t t h e y a r e c o m fo r t a b l e w i t h t o a l l o w

t h e m t o m a k e a u t o n o m o u s d e c is io n s .(2) Traditional Support: P ro v i d e D S S s t o d e c i s i o nm a k e r s t o m e sh w i t h t h e d e c i s i o n a n d i t si m p r o v e m e n t s .(3) Ex tende d Support: A l t e rn a t i v e s a r e a c t i v e l ysu g g e s t e d b y D S S s t o d e c i s i o n m a k e r s .(4) Normative Support: D S S s d o m i n a t e t h e w h o l ed e c i s i o n p ro c e s s , a n d m a n a g e r s a r e t h e re t op ro v i d e i n p u t s a n d sp e c i f i c a t i o n s .

T h e w o rd sy s t e m i n D S S d e v i a t e s f ro m t h em e a n i n g o f sy s t e m u se d i n C h e c k l a n d (1 9 8 1 ) . I nt h e c o n t e x t o f D S S , sy s t e m i m p l i e s a sy s t e m o fm a n -m a c h i n e i n t e r a c t i o n s a n d i t s d e s i g n a n di m p l e m e n t a t i o n A n i n t e g ra t e d a p p ro a c h , i n t h i scase , i s impor t an t , espec i a l ly i f t he sys t em i s t ol i n k w i t h e x i s t i n g d a t a b a se s u s i n g c o m p u t e r n e t -works

C o m m e n t i n g o n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f D S S i n t h el a s t t e n y e a r s , K e e n (1 9 8 7 ) su g g e s t e d th e n e e d s t oa d o p t a b a l an c e d a p p r o a c h t o th e t h re e a s p e c ts o fD S S - n a m e l y , D e c i s i o n , S u p p o r t a n d S y s t e m s .T h i s i s i n r e sp o n se t o t h e r e c e n t sw i n g t o w a rd sD S S b u i l d i n g .

A l t h o u g h m a n y m a n a g e m e n t s c i e n t i s t s u s e t h et e rm D S S w i t h o u t q u a l i f ic a t i o n , i t is c le a r e r t o c a l li t M a n a g e m e n t D e c i s i o n S u p p o r t S y s t e m . T h e

4. Types of Problems and Decision StyleGe n e ra l l y sp e a k i n g , t h e re a r e t h r e e t y p e s o fp r o b l e m s t o b e s o lv e d b y m a n a g e m e n t : s t ru c t u r ed ,s e n d - s t ru c t u re d , a n d u n s t ru c t u re d . T h e b o u n d a r i e s

b e t w e e n t h e m , h o w e v e r , a r e n o t a s c l e a r c u t a sthey sound Somet imes the c l ass i f i ca t ion i s a l sod e p e n d e n t o n t h e e x i s t e n c e o f m e t h o d s fo r so l v i n gt h e p ro b l e m s F o r i n s t a n c e , b e fo re t h e a d v e n t o f


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358 M .C Er / Decision Support SystemsL e v e l s o f M a n a g e m e n t A c t i v i t i e s

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S e m i - s t r u c t u r e d S h a r e S e tt in g C a p it alt r ad ing budg e t ac qu is i t i on

U n s t r u c t u r e d P a c k a g e S e l e c t in g I n fo r m a t io nd e s i g n a n e w s y s te m smanage r po r t fo l i oFig. 2. The combinations of the types of problems and the levels of management activities.

l inear p rogramming, p rof i t maximiza t ion or cos tmin imiza t ion was cons idered as a semi-s t ruc turedproblem; nowadays , wi th the ava i lab i l i ty of s im-plex method , the prob lem i s genera lly reduced to as t ruc tured problem.The levels of management act ivi t ies , general ly,can be classif ied into operat ional control , manage-

ment cont ro l , and s t ra teg ic p lanning , which a rep e r f o r me d b y s u p e r v i s o r y ma n a g e me n t , m i d d l em a n a g e m e n t , a n d t o p m a n a g e m e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y .I n g e n e r a l , s u p e r v i s o r y ma n a g e me n t d e a l s mo r ewi th s t ruc tured problems a f fec ted by in te rna l fac-t o r s , t o p ma n a g e me n t mo r e w i t h u n s t r u c t u r e dproblems a f fec ted by ex te rna l fac tors , wi th middle

Level Organizat ional T ime span Nu m bern u m b e r l ev e l o f D S S s7 mul t ina t iona l 20 ~ 50 y rs non ecorporation6 corporate 10 ~. 20 yrs no negroup5 corporate 5 ~ 10 yrs no nesubs id ia ry4 genera l 2 ~ 5 y :s very fewm a n a g e m e n t3 depar tment 1 ~ 2 y rs a fewmanager ia l

2 Front l ine 3 mon ths ~ ma nymanag er ia l 1 y r

1 s hop and < 3 mon ths ma nyoff ice f loor

Fig. 3. A spectrum of work activities and associated decision making.

Capabil i t ieso f D S S s

art iculat ionof goa l se t t ingselect ing fromty pesrestructur ingwi th in f ixeds t ruc tureal ter ingj u d g e m e n t o nvar iab lesj u d g e m e n tw i th in f ixeds t ruc tured


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M.C. Er / Decision Support Systems 359m a n a g e m e n t s i t t i n g i n t h e m i d d l e . T h e c o m b i n a -t i o n s o f t h e t y p e s o f p r o b l e m s a n d t h e l e v e l s o fmanagemen t a re shown in f ig . 2 (Huf f , 1985) .

Work ac t iv i t i e s , in a typ ica l mu l t i -na t iona l co r -p o r a t i o n , t h a t r e q u i r e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g s p a n t h ew h o l e s p e c t r u m o f p r o b l e m t y p es , fr o m s t r u c t u r e dp r o b l e m t o u n s t r u c t u r e d p r o b l e m . A n e x a m p l e i sshown in f ig . 3 (Humphreys , 1984 ; Ph i l l ip s , 1984) .C u r r e n t l y n o D S S i s c a p a b l e o f su p p o r t i n g m a n a -g e m e n t d e c i s i o n m a k i n g b e y o n d l e v e l 4 , w h e r es t ra teg ic p lann ing i s c ruc ia l . Even a t l eve l 4 , ve ryf e w D S S s h a v e b e e n i m p l e m e n t e d f o r s u p p o r t i n gg e n e r a l m a n a g e m e n t .O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , v e r y f e w e x i s t i n g D S S s(Ginzberg , Re i tman and S toh r , 1982 ; So l , 1983)take in to accoun t ind iv i dua l ' s dec is ion s ty le - th i si s ve ry su rp r i s ing . I t i s we l l known tha t pe rsona l i tyin f luences one ' s dec is ion s ty le (Nu t t , 1986) , wh ichi n t u r n d e t e r m i n e s o n e ' s p r e f e r e n c e i n s e l e c t i n gdec is ion a ids . In des ign ing DSSs fo r ind iv idua ls ,c l e a r l y t h i s a s p e c t m u s t b e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i no r d e r t o m a x i m i z e t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f D S S s .

For measu r ing cogn i t ive s ty le , i t i s gene ra l lya g r e e d t h a t t h e M y e r s - B r i g g s t y p e i n d i c a t o r( M B T I ) s a t i s f i e s t h e p r e d i c t i v e v a l i d i t y p r o p e r t y .C o g n i t i v e s t y l e c a n b e m e a s u r e d a l o n g t w o d i m e n -s i o n s : p r e f e r r e d w a y o f g e t t i n g d a t a a n d p r e f e r r e dw a y o f p r o c e s s i n g d a t a . I n t h e f o r m e r d i m e n s i o n ,an ind iv idua l may be c la ss i f ied a s sens ing (S ) o rin tu i t ion (N) . In the la t te r d imens ion , an ind iv id -u a l m a y b e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d a s t h i n k i n g ( T ) o r F e e l -ing (F ) . A sen , r ing ind iv idua l p re fe r s ha rd da tat h a t d e a l w i t h s p e c i f i c p r o b l e m s . I n c o n t r a s t , a ni n t u i t i v e i n d i v i d u a l p r e f e r s h o l i s t i c i n f o r m a t i o ntha t desc r ibes poss ib i l i t i e s . On the o the r hand , at h i n k i n g t y p e u s e s l o g i c a n d o t h e r f o r m a l m e a n sfo r reason ing . In con t ra s t , a fee l ing type p lacesc o n s i d e r a t i o n o f d e c i s i o n i n p e rs o n a l t e r m s . T h ec o m b i n a t i o n s o f t h e s e t w o d i m e n s i o n s y i e l d t h efo l lowing fou r dec is ion s ty le s :

(I) Systematic (ST )S y s t e m a t i c t y p e i n d i v i d u a l s u s e q u a n t i t a t i v em e a s u r e s o n i n f o r m a t i o n a n d , p r e f e r c o s t - b e -n e f i t a n a l y s i s a n d e v a l u a t i o n r e s e a r c h a s d e c i -s ion a ids .(2) Speculative (NT )S p e c u l a t i v e t y p e i n d i v i d u a l s s p e c u l a t e f u t u r eposs ib i l i t i e s , and p re fe r dec is ion t rees wi thsens i t iv i ty ana lys i s a s dec is ion a ids .

(3) Judicial (SF)J u d i c a l t y p e i n d i v i d u a l s c o n c e n t r a t e o n c u r -ren t s i tua t ion , and p re fe r the use o f dec is iong r o u p s .(4) Heuristic (NF)H e u r i s t i c t y p e i n d i v i d u a l s p l a c e g r e a t e m p h a -s i s on cu r ren t poss ib i l i t i e s , and p re fe r reach ingdec is ions th rough mut t~a l ad jus tmen t .

F rom the above d i scuss ion , i t i s se l f -ev iden ttha t ind iv idua ls wi th d i f fe ren t dec is ion s ty le s p re -f e r d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f d e c i s i o n s u p p o r t . F o r e x a m -p l e , s y s t e m a t i c d e c i s i o n m a k e r s p r e f e r D S S s t h a tc a n s u p p o r t c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s e s o f h a r d d a t a ,w h e r e a s s p e c u l a t i v e d e c i s i o n m a k e r s p r e f e r D S S st h a t c a n p r o v i d e ' w h a t - i f ' a n a l y s e s . T h u s t h e u s u a la p p r o a c h t o p r o v i d i n g a l l d e c i s i o n m a k e r s w i t ht h e s a m e D S S m a y n o t s u i t i n d i v i d u a l s ' t a s t e s , a n dhence dec is ion mak ing i s l e s s e f fec t ive than i ts h o u l d b e . O b v i o u s l y m o r e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s s h o u l db e d i r e c t e d a t m a t c h i n g D S S s w i t h i n d i v i d u a l s 'dec i s ion s ty le s .F u r t h e r m o r e , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o t a k e i n t o a c c o u n ti n d i v i d u a l s a n d c i r c u m s t a n c e s t h a t d e c i s i o n m a k -ing i s based on r i sk adverse o r r i sk tak ing , so tha t

1 . D e c i s i o n s u p p o r t a n a l y s i s- s t r u c t u r e d i n t e r v i e w s- d e c i s i o n a n a l y s is- d a t a a n a l y s i s- t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s- c o n c e p t u a l D S S o r i e n t a t io n- p l a n s a n d p r i o r i t i z a t i o n

2 . D S S s o f t w a r e e v a l u a t i o n a n d s e l e c t i o n- i d e n t if ic a t i o n o f c a n d i d a t e v e n d o r s- f e a t u r e a n a l y s i s- b e n c h m a r k s- e x t e r n a l s i t e s u r v e y s

. P r o t o t y p e d e v e l o p m e n t- s c o p i n g o f p r o t o t y p e- p r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a- d e t a i l e d d e s i g n- s y s t e m c o n s t r u c t io n- t e s t i n g- d e m o n s t r a t i o n- e v a l u a t i o n

. O p e r a t i o n a l d e p l o y m e n t a n d s u p p o r t- f u n c t i o n a l o r i e n t a t i o n- o p e r a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g- d e p l o y m e n t- m a i n t e n a n c e

Fig. 4. A four-stage process for developing DSS.


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360 M.C. Er / Decision Support Systemsmore versa t i l e DS S s can b e d eve lop ed . I t i s im-p ortan t to k n own th at h u man d ec i s ion mak ersgen era l ly d o n o t mak e d ec i s ion s b ased on th ep rob ab i l i ty o f su ccess , b ecau se th e p en a l ty for av i ta l d ec i s ion th a t tu rn s ou t to b e wron g i s n or -mal ly substantia l .In su mmary , d ec i s ion tech n o logy sh ou ld b ecen tred on p rob lem so lvers (w i th exp er i en ce , in tu i-t i o n a n d k n o w l e d g e ) s u p p l e m e n t e d b y i n f o r m a -t ion tech n o logy (comp u ters , so f tware , d a tab ases ,n e twork s , an d mod e l l in g ) an d p re feren ce tech n o l -ogy (va lu e ju d gem en ts , t ime an d r isk p re feren ces ,and trade-offs) (Phi l l ips , 1984) .

5 . D S S D e v e l o p m e n tS o m e p r a c t i t i o n e r s h a v e m i s t a k e n D S S t o b esp re a d sh e e t , a n d t h u s t h o u g h t t h a t D S S d e v e l o p -m e n t w a s a s s i m p l e a s p u rc h a s i n g a sp re a d sh e e t

p a c k a g e . I n f a c t, sp r e a d sh e e t i s a s im p l i s t ic t y p e o fD S S . M o r e c o m p l e x a n d s o p h i s t ic a t e d D S S s s u i t a -b l e f o r s u p p o r t i n g v a r i o u s d e c i s i o n m a k i n gp ro c e s se s n e e d t o b e d e v e l o p e d a n d b u i l t i n -h o u se .M e a d o r , G u y o t e a n d R o s e n f e l d ( 1 9 8 6 ) p r o p o s e d afo u r - s t a g e p ro c e s s fo r d e v e l o p i n g a D S S : d e c i s i o nsu p p o r t a n a l y s i s , D S S so f t w a re e v a l u a t i o n a n ds e le c ti o n , p r o t o t y p e d e v e l o p m e n t , a n d o p e r a t i o n a ld e p l o y m e n t a n d s u p p o r t . D e t a i l s m a y b e s e e n i nfig. 4.

Decision Analysis Entry

Mo nitor and descr ibe the currentdecision process

TDetermine the key Idecisions

TDefine "normative"model (s)

Com pare the descr ip t iveand no rmat ive mode ls

Se lect a reas fo r suppor t o J

Ident i fy degree o fcom mitme nt, key interests,and perspect ives; bui ldmom entum for change

Defineobjectives fo rsuppo rt ef for t

Identifyresourcesavai lable

Design al ternat ives;operat ional ize goals,costs, ben ef i ts;ident i fy key issuesand con straints onimplementat ion

Fig. 5. Keen and Scott Morton's (1978) predesign cycle.


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M. C Er / Decision Suppor t Sys tems 361I n a n e a rl i er a t t e m p t , K e e n a n d S c o t t M o r t o n

( 1 9 7 8 ) p r o p o s e d a p r e d e s i g n c y c l e f o r d e v e l o p i n gDS S ( f ig . 5 ). I n d e e d , i f o n e k n o w s wh e r e t h ep r o b l e m s i s , o n e h a s s o l v e d h a l f o f t h e p r o b l e m( L a n d r y , P a s c o t a n d B r i o l a t , 1 9 8 5 ) . F o r r e a l l yu n s t r u c t u r e d p r o b l e m , i t i s g e n e r a l l y h a r d t o p i n -p o i n t w h e r e t h e p r o b l e m i s . P e r h a p s t h e u s e o fp r o b l e m a t i q u e i s a b e t t e r w o r d f o r d e s c r i b i n g t h es i t u a t i o n , r a t h e r t h a n p r o b l e m o r p r o b l e m a t i c a l .

6 . D S S A p p l i c a t io n s

H i t h e r t o , m o s t D S S s a r e a p p l i e d t o s t r u c t u r e da n d s e m i - s t r u c t u r e d p r o b l e m s . A l i s t o f e x i s t i n gD S S a p p l i c a t io n s , n o n - e x h a u s t i v e o f c o u r se , i sg i v e n b e l o w :C o r p o r a t e f i n a n c i a l p l a n n i n g

- l o a n a m o r t i z a t i o n- d e p r e c i a t i o n- l e a s e v e r s u s b u y- d i s c o u n t e d c a s h f l o w a n d n e t - p r e s e n t v a l u e- b r e a k - e v e n a n a l y s i s

M a r k e t i n g a n a l y s i s- f o r e c a s t i n g- s a l e s a n a l y s i s- p r o m o t i o n a n a l y s i s- c o n s u m e r s a l e s a u d i t s R e a l e s ta t e i n v e s t m e n t s- f i n a n c in g a l t e r n a t i v e- cash f lows- i m p a c t o n t a x e s- p a y o f f

M i n e r a l o g i c a l e x p l o r a t i o n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n r o u t i n g P or fo l io ana lys i s

O b v i o u s l y , m o r e D S S a p p l i c a t i o n s c a n b e a d -d e d t o t h e l i s t , a n d t h e l i m i t a t i o n s a r e h u m a n ' sc r e a t i v i t y a n d i m a g i n a t i o n .

7 . P r o b l e m s F a c i n g D S S s

A f t e r a d e c a d e o f b u i l d i n g , d e v e l o p i n g a n du s i n g D S S s , m a n y p r o b l e m s h a v e s u r f a c e d a n dn e e d t o b e s o l v e d e v e n t u a l l y . W e l i s t b e l o w s o m eo f t h e c o m m o n l y s e e n p ro b l e m s :(1) Data capture and collectionH o w t o c a p t u r e a n d c o l l e c t d a t a r e m a i n s a n

u n s o l v e d p r o b l e m . M a n y D S S s a r e n o t c o m -p a t i b l e w i t h e a c h o t h e r , f o r c i n g d e c i s i o nm a k e r s t o r e t y p e d a t a a n d ~ h u s c r e a t i n g u n -n e c e s s a r y d u p l i c a t i o n o f d a t a a n d e f f o r t s .P r o b l e m s a l s o a r i s e f r o m t h e n o n - c o m p a t i b i l -i t y o f p u r c h a s e d D S S s w i t h e x i st i n g d a t a b a s e sa n d c o m p u t e r n e t w o r k s .(2) Data integrity and secutiryD u p l i c a t i o n o f d a t a p o s e s a d a t a i n t e g r i t yp r o b l e m w h e r e b y d a t a a r e a t d i ff e r e n t c y c l e so f u p d a t e . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e s c a t t e r i n g o f s e n -s i t i v e d a t a a t d i f f e r e n t p l a c e s p o s e s t h e s e c u r -i t y p r o b l e m w h i c h i s h a r d t o c o n t ro l .(3) Unstructured problemsT h e r e i s a n e e d t o e x t e n d DS S s t o s o l v e u n -s t r u c t u r e d p r o b l e m s w h i c h a r e e t , . m m o n l yf a c e d b y t o p e x e c u t i v e s wh o m a ~ : e v i t a l d e c i -s ions .( 4) M anagem ent o f D S SsW i t h s m a l l D S S s b u i l t a n d f o r g o t t e n , a n dl a r g e D S S s c o n s t a n t l y u n d e r m o d i f i c a t i o n sw i t h o u t d o c u m e n t a t i o n s , t h e r e i s a r e a l n e e dt o m a n a g e t h e p r o c e s s a n d p r o d u c t o f D S Sd e v e l o p m e n t . O t h e r w i s e t h e w h o l e t h i n g i sr u n n i n g o u t o f c o n t ro l , e s p e c i a ll y w h e n k e yd e v e l o p e r s r e s i g n .

(5) Cost-effectioenessI s a D S S c o s t e ff e c t iv e ? C l e a r l y s o m e j u s t i f i c a -t i o n s a r e n e e d e d b e f o r e c o m m i t t i n g p e r s o n n e la n d m o n e t a r y r e s o u r c e s t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o fa D S S . T h e t r a d i t i o n a l c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i sm a y n o t b e t h e b e s t a p p r o a c h f o r a s s e ss i n g t h eb e n e f i t o f a n i n n o v a t i o n K e e n ( 1 9 8 1 ) p r o -p o s e d t h e v a l u e a n a l y s i s wh i c h s t r e s s e s v a l u ef i r s t a n d c o s t s e c o n d . Ho we v e r , i s t h e r e ab e t t e r w a y f o r a s se s s in g o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t?

(6) StandardizationT h e r e i s a n e e d t o s t a n d a r d i z e s o m e b a s i cf e a t u r e s o f D S S s s o t h a t t h e y c a n b e u s e d b ym o r e d e c i s i o n m a k e r s b u t a t t h e s a m e t i m et a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i nt e r m s o f d e c i s i o n s t y l e . I s t h e r e a wa y t h a t t h ec o n f l i c t in g r e q u i r e m e n t s c a n b e r e so l v ed ?

(7) Individual versus group DSSsH o w t o s u p p o r t i n d i v i d u a l d e c i s i o n m a k e r sd u r i n g a g r o u p m e e t i n g i s a l s o a p r e s s i n gp r o b l e m t o b e r e s o l v e d . S h o u l d a l l i n d i v i d u a l su s e t h e s a m e D S S a n d s e e t h e s a m e t h i n g , o rs h o u l d i n d i v i d u a l s b e a l l o w e d t o u s e t h e i rt a i l o r - m a d e D S S s d u r i n g a g r o u p d e c i s i o nm a k i n g ?


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36 2 M.C. Er / Decision Support Systems(8) Data are not independent o f spreadsheetsDa t a u s e d b y a s p r e a d s h e e t n o r ma l l y c a n n o tbe used by different spreadsheet , resul t ing inda ta be ing t ied up wi th spreadshee ts . Anagreeable indus t r ia l s tandard for a l l spread-

shee ts may not come easy .

8 . F u t u re T r e n d s o f D S SDespi te the fac t tha t there i s no acceptab ledef in i t ion , DSS i s here to s tay s imply because i tcomplements the t ransac t ion process ing aspec t o fEDP. However , i t wi l l t ake some t ime before DSSreaching a mature s tage . As i t s tands , the fo l low-ing fu ture t rends of deve lopment of DSS are

identif iable:(1 ) Group D SSGroup dec is ion making p lays a major ro le inde te rmin ing corpora te a f fa i r s (Young, 1983) .Ho w t o d e s i g n a n d d e v e l o p g r o u p DSSs f o rsuppor t ing group meet ings i s a complex taskbecause of the complex combina t ion of peo-ple, places, t ime communicat ion networks, in-dividual preferences, and other technologies.

A group meet ing can be conducted a t thesame p lace , o r a t d i f fe ren t p laces a t tended bydi f fe ren t g rou ps o f people us ing te leconferenc-ing techniques . On the o ther hand , a g roupmeet ing can be con ducted dur ing a f ixed per iodof t ime , o r i t i s jus t an un l im i ted on -goingp r o c e s s . G r o u p DSS i s s u p p o s e d t o s u p p o r tany one of the poss ib le combina t ions (De-Sanctis and Gallupse, 1985).

(2) Decision support centreDecis ion suppor t cen t re i s an emerg ing con-cept (Owen and Volpa to , 1985) . A dec is ionsuppor t g roup , s ta f fed by in format ion sys temsprofess iona ls who unders tand the bus iness en-v i ronment , fo rm the core of dec is ion suppor tcen t re , wi th advanced informat ion technology .A dec is ion suppo r t cen t re i s usua l ly loca ted inc lose proximi ty to top management so tha tins tan t dec is ion suppor t can be provided . Adec is ion suppor t g roup wi l l read i ly deve lop ormo d i f y DSSs t o s u p p o r t t o p ma n a g e me n t i nma k i n g u r g e n t a n d i mp o r t a n t d e c i s i o n s .

(3) S trategic DSSDSS for suppor t ing s t ra teg ic management i s awell recognised a rea of im por tance and s ign if i -

cance (King , 1984) . I t i s an a rea where DSSc a n ma k e a s u b s t a n t i a l i mp a c t o n t h e t o pma n a g e me n t a n d t h e c o r p o r a t i o n . T h e g e n e r i cSICIS i ssue t ree (King , 1984) sounds t r iv ia l ,a n d t h e SPI R A p r o c e s s f o r a ch i e vi n g i n f o r ma -t i o n - b a s e d s t r a t e g i c c o mp a r a t i v e a d v a n t a g e(King , 1984) resembles Ch ecklan d ' s (1981) sof ts y s te m me t h o d o l o g y .In te l l igent DSSSo me a u t h o r s , n o t a b l y No l a n ( 1 9 8 6 ) , s u g g e s tthe adapta t ion of a r t i f ic ia l in te l l igence (AI)a n d e x p e r t s y s t e ms t e c h n i q u e s t o DSS . Ho w-ever , mos t au thors under -es t imate the d i f f icu l -t i e s i n r e p r e s e n t i n g c o mmo n - s e n s e k n o wl e d g ewh i c h i s a n u n s o l v e d p r o b l e m i n AI .

R e f e r e n c e sCheckland, P .B . (1981), Sys tems Th inking, Sys tems Pract ice ,

John Wiley: Chichester.Dearden, J . (1972), MIS is a Mirage, Harvard Business Review,Vol. 50, No. 1, pp. 90-99.DeSanct is , G. and Gal lupe, B. (1985), Grou p Decision Sup portSys tems: A New Front ier , D ata Base, Vol . 16, No. 2, pp.3 - 1 0 .Ginzb erg, M.J., Reitman, W . and Stohr, E.A. (1982 ), DecisionSupport Sys tems, North-Hol land: Amsterdam.

Greenwood , W .T. (1969), Decision Th eory and In form at ionSystems, South-Western Pub.: Cincinnati .Hogue, J .T. (1985), MIS Mana ger 's Guide to Decis ion Supp ortSys tems, Data Process ing Management , pp. 1-8.Huff , S .L. (1985), Decision Su pport Sys tems, Com puter Pro-gramming Management , pp. 1-11.Hum phreys , P . (1984), Levels of Representat ion in StructuringDecision Problems, Journal of Systems Analysis, Vol. 11,pp . 3 -22 .Keen, P.G.W. (1981), Value Analysis: Justifying Decision Sup-port Sys tems, MIS Quarter ly. Vol . 5, pp. 1-15.Keen, P .G.W. (1 987), Decision Supp ort Sys tems: The Nex tDecade, Decision Sup port Systems 3, 253-2 65.Keen, P.G.W. an d Scott M orton , M.S. (1978 ), Decision Sup-port Sys tems: An Organizat ional Perspect ive , Addison-Wesley: Reading, MA.King, W .R. (1983), Achieving the Poten tial of Decision Su p-port Systems, Journal of Business Strategy, Winter, pp.84-91 .King, W.R. (1984), St ra tegic Man agemen t : D ecis ion Sup portSystems, in manuscript.Klein, H.K . and Hirschheim, R. (1985), Fund amen tals Issuesof Decision Supp ort Systems: A consequentialist Perspec-tive, Decision Support Systems, Vol. 1, pp. 5-24.Landry, M., Pascot , D. and Briola t , D. (1985 ), Ca n DSSEvolve Wi thout Changing Our View of the Concept o f'Proble m'? D ecis ion Su pport Sys tems, Vol . 1, pp. 25 -3 6.M eador, C.L., Guyo te, M.J. and Rosenfeld, W .L. (198 6), Deci-s ion Support Planning and Analys is : The Problems of


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M.C. Er / Decision Support Systems 36 3Getting Large-Scale DSS Started, MIS Quarterly, Vol. 10,pp. 159-177.Nu t t , P.C. (1986), Decision Style and I t s Im pact on Ma nagersand Management , Technological Forecast ing and SocialChang e, Vol. 29 , pp. 341-366.Owen, D. and Volpato , M. (1985) , Focusing High Technologyon the Executive Decision-M aking Process , The Au st ral ianDirector , Vol . 15 , Apri l /May, pp. 20-24.Pi l l ips , L.D. (1984) , Decision Support for Manager , in TheManager i a l Chal l enge o f N ew O f f i ce Techno l ogy , (ed ) H .Otway and M . Peltu , But terworths: London, pp. 80-98 .

So l, H .G . (1 ~ ) . P rocesses and Too l s fo r Deci s ion Suppor t ,North-Ht~!i~.md: Am sterdam~Sprague, R. h . j r and C ar lson, E.D. (1982) , Bui ld ing Effect iveDecision S~,~port Systems, Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs,New Jer sey .Sprague , R .H. j r and McN ur l i n , B .C. (1986) , In fo rmat i onSystems Management in Pract ice, Prent ice-Hal l : En-glewood Cl i f fs , New Jersey.: , : :~g, L.E. (1983) , A Corporate St rategy for Decision Sup-por t Sys t ems , Jou rna l o f In fo rmat i on Sys t ems Manage-ment, Vol. 1, No. 1, winter.

Decision Support Systems_A Summary, Problems, And Future Trends

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