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![Page 1: Decision Support System Dr. William Scroggins President Dr. Irene Malmgren Vice President of Instruction Bob Hughes Director, Enterprise Applications Systems.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649ec15503460f94bcd6dd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Decision Support System
Dr. William ScrogginsPresident
Dr. Irene MalmgrenVice President of Instruction
Bob HughesDirector, Enterprise Applications Systems
Daniel LamoreeSr. Systems Analyst/Programmer
RP Group Conference 2014April 10th, 2014
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The Role of Executive Leadership
President’s CabinetDecision Support System given high priorityRegular updates to Cabinet
Instruction TeamDemonstration of application to DeansGather Feedback
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IT and Research Collaboration
Information Technology staff goal – protect the data; restrict access
Researchers goal – more data leads to better decision-making
When these units are in different divisions, the need for cooperation and collaboration is critical
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The approach at Mt. SAC
Data Users Group (DUG) meeting – every 2 weeks
Researchers Data Warehouse (RDW) instance of the Banner Database
Report Designer access to Argos DEV
SQL training of Researchers by IT Staff
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Leveraging Talent
Director of RIE recognized a team member with a unique aptitude for programming
Director of EAS (Enterprise Resource Applications) responded to a need for a Decision Support System
Best solution – temporary reassignment of a researcher to IT as a programmerLocated in IT Build trust with other IT staff Improved access to data
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Learning Objectives
1. How Mt. SAC calculates FTES Targets
2. How Mt. SAC decides sections to add or cut
3. How Mt. SAC Deans develop prospective schedules
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Mt. SAC Story: Lost FTES
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Scheduling 2014-2015 Overview
Top-Down ApproachGet Annual FTES TargetDistribute Annual Target between CR, ENHC_NC, NC
Grow only Credit? Distribute as before?
Distribute CR, ENHC_NC, NC among Terms Grow Summer (yes, please)? Fall? Winter? Spring?
Distribute FTES among Divisions . . .
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Annual Targeting
ExampleFunded FTES for Prior Year = 29371.99Growth = 3.5%Unfunded FTES for Prior Year = 400 ((29371.99 * 1.035) – 400) = 30000CR: 27000 (90%), 2400 ENHC_NC (8%), 600 NC (2%)10% Summer; 42% Fall; 8% Winter; 40% SpringOf 10% Summer: 36.22% HSS; . . .
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Annual Targeting
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Annual Targeting
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Annual Targeting
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Annual Targeting
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Annual Targeting
Just one catch . . .
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Moving Target
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Minimizing Spring UncertaintyKnowns
Sections Scheduled for SpringScheduled Hours per Section for SpringHistorical Fill Rate for Spring
UnknownsFuture Contact Hours (Fill Rate for WSCH/DSCH or
PACH)
Mt. SAC DecisionProjection
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Projection: Weighted Averages4 3 2 1
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1st Most Recent2nd Most Recent3rd Most Recent4th Most Recent
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Does the projection work?
Spring 2012
Acct Potential Projected Actual Error # Error %
W 8432.9192 8312.95 8381.988 69.038 0.824%
IW 289.5956 311.02 266.019 45.001 16.916%
ID 117.6122 110.82 97.9406 12.8794 13.150%
D 374.2581 395.12 340.651 54.469 15.990%
LD 33.2027 25.87 28.3751 2.5051 8.829%
LW 256.2772 236.96 224.4053 12.5547 5.595%
TOTAL 9503.865 9392.74 9339.379 53.361 0.571%
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Does the projection work?
Fall 2012
Acct Potential Projected Actual Error # Error %
W 8980.0658 8939.189004.8445 65.6645 0.729%
IW 294.9029 323.12 268.3027 54.8173 20.431%
ID 146.9111 148.73 123.4596 25.2704 20.469%
D 393.9151 385.57 337.1664 48.4036 14.356%
LD 29.3333 27.49 29.0263 1.5363 5.293%
LW 234.8028 208.51 228.1898 19.6798 8.624%
TOTAL 10079.931 10032.69990.9893 41.6107 0.416%
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Does the projection work?
Spring 2013
Acct Potential Projected Actual Error # Error %
W 9147.3702 8924.058839.0069 85.0431 0.962%
IW 320.2368 337.38 290.7746 46.6054 16.028%
ID 141.3104 131.81 116.7168 15.0932 12.931%
D 426.6003 445.74 359.189 86.551 24.096%
LD 27.8053 23.8 26.2312 2.4312 9.268%
LW 271.2639 245.29 231.6928 13.5972 5.869%
TOTAL 10334.5869 10108.079863.6113 244.4587 2.478%
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Does the projection work?
Fall 2013
Acct Potential Projected Actual Error # Error %
W 9444.0141 9523.719263.0738 260.6362 2.814%
IW 350.3353 418.18 314.465 103.715 32.981%
ID 189.386 215.32 162.3545 52.9655 32.623%
D 369.7928 397.66 317.5203 80.1397 25.239%
LW 93.0252 124.5 83.0736 41.4264 49.867%
TOTAL 10446.5534 10679.3710140.487 538.8828 5.314%
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What happened?
No variance in pervious years; easy to project when fill rates hover around 100% (after drops and adds)
What now?More robust model, an actual predictive model
Will that help given downward trends? Always 1 year or term behind?
Maintain Agility Reporting via Argos and APEX Sandboxing via APEX
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APEX
HighlightsOracle’s primary tool for developing Web
applications using SQL and PL/SQLOnly requires web browser to developNo cost option of the Oracle Database
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ReportsWhat sections should we add?
Demand 90%+ Fill Waitlists
Registration Acceleration
What sections should we cut?Lagging SectionsRegistration Acceleration
What else?Room UsageExcluded CRNs
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Demand 90%+ Fill
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Response?
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Waitlists
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Registration Acceleration
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Lagging Courses
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Lagging Courses
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Room Usage
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Excluded CRNs From 320
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Sandbox
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Future
Building Predictive Model
Room/Space Efficiency
Reporting Off Sandboxes
Task/Directive Assignment