Decision Making Brigham Young University January 30, 2008.
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Transcript of Decision Making Brigham Young University January 30, 2008.
Decision Making
Brigham YoungUniversity
January 30, 2008
Workforce Skills in Demand at BYU
In 2001, BYU managers said the number one skill their people needed to develop was:
Problem Solving
There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.- Peter Drucker
Do less with less.
Why don’t we always make the best decisions?
Three Blunders:• Premature commitments• Wrongheaded investments• Failure prone practices
– Dr. Paul Nutt, Why Decisions Fail
Blunder 1 – Premature Commitments
Pain Gain
There is perhaps no psychological skill more fundamental than resisting impulse.
- Daniel Goleman, Emotional Intelligence
Blunder 2 – Wrongheaded Investments
Every problem has an easy, cheap, obvious, and wrong solution.
- Donald Rumsfeld
Blunder 3 – Failure Prone Practices
Idea vs. Discovery
Decision-Making Process
1. Evaluate the Problem2. Identify the Objective3. Plan the Decision4. Generate Alternatives5. Screen Alternatives6. Decide
1. Evaluate the Problem
Please give me an example. These are the five most important words used in the [business person’s] arsenal, and they can’t be used enough.
-Tom Peters
While hard data may inform our intellect, it is largely soft data that generates wisdom…Hard information is often limited in scope, lacking richness, and often fails to encompass important non economic and non quantitative factors.
– Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Thinking
2. Identify the Objective
The reason most people never reach their goals is that they don’t define them… Winners can tell you where they are going, what they plan to do along the way, and who will be sharing the adventure with them. – Denis Waitley
SMART Objectives…
• Specific• Measurable• Achievable• Reach• Time-bound
3. Plan the Decision
IYou WeOnly 7 percent of decisions are made after considering long-term priorities or conferring with colleagues. – Dr. Paul Nutt
4. Generate Alternatives
Success rates of students successfully solving a business problem, 1968, University of Michigan
Group 1: Instructions = 39%Group 2: Instructions + “be creative”
= 52%
5. Screen Alternatives
•Link to objectives•Gut check
6. Decide
Satisfice vs. Maximize
Decision-Making Process
1. Evaluate the Problem2. Identify the Objective3. Plan the Decision4. Generate Alternatives5. Screen Alternatives6. Decide
Ego in Decision Making1/3 ego drove the decision81% edict or persuasion drove the
decision2/3 never explored alternatives once
they made up their minds
- Dr. Paul Nutt, Why Decisions Fail
Ego in Decision-Making
1. Being defensive2. Showcasing your
brilliance3. Seeking approval
- MarcumSmith, BusinessThink
Strengths x Ego = Weakness
ConfidenceQuicknessSharp witDeterminationDedicationCommitmentPerseverancePersuasive
Sense of infallibilityOverhastinessAbrasivenessInflexibilityWorkaholismIntoleranceResistance to changeManipulation
- Adapted from The Paradox of Success by John O’Neil
How to Combat Ego• Exercise humility• Assume good intentions• Focus on the issue at hand• Understand the intent and
purpose of the question
- MarcumSmith, BusinessThink
The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for circumstances they want,
and if they can’t find them, make them.
- George Bernard Shaw
The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise rather than being preceded by a period of worry and depression.
- Sir John Harvey-Jones