Decision making

Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate Professor

“Decision Making” by

Dr. Gaurav BissaAssociate Professor (Reader)

Govt. Engineering CollegeBikaner

[email protected]


Objectives of Presentation

• Decision making: an idea

• Decision making process

• Techniques of Decision making

• Problems associated with decision making

• Group Decision making

• Ethics & Decision making


Decision making Process

I. Defining the Problem

II. Formulating the Hypothesis

III. Collecting the Facts

IV. Conducting the Analysis

V. Developing the Solution


Problem

Hypothesis

FactsAnalysis

Solution


Defining the Problem

Definition:• A problem is a situation that is judged as something that

needs to be corrected – implies that a state of "wholeness" does not exist

Importance:• It is our job to make sure we’re solving the right problem –

it may not be the one presented to us by the client. What do we really need to solve?

Basic Concepts:• Most of the problems are initially identified by our clients• Defining the problem clearly improves focus – it drives the

analytical process

Problem

Hypothesis

FactsAnalysis

Solution


Formulating the Hypotheses

Definition:• Hypothesis is a tentative explanation for an

observation that can be tested (i.e. proved or disproved) by further investigation

Importance:• Start at the end - Figuring out the solution to the

problem, i.e. "hypothesizing", before you start will help build a roadmap for approaching the problem.

Problem

Hypothesis

FactsAnalysis

Solution


Collecting the Facts

Definition:• Meaningful information (has merit – not false) that is

qualitative (expert opinions) or quantitative (measurable performance) to your decisions

Importance:• Gathering relevant data and information is a critical step

in supporting the analyses required for proving or disproving the hypotheses

Problem

Hypothesis

FactsAnalysis

Solution


Basic Concepts:

• Know where to dig

• Know how to filter through information

• Know how to verify – Has happened in the past

• Know how to apply – Relates to what you are trying to solve


Conducting the AnalysisDefinition:• The deliberate process of breaking a problem down

through the application of knowledge and various analytical techniques

Importance:• Analysis of the facts is required to prove or disprove the

hypotheses• Analysis provides an understanding of issues and drivers

behind the problemBasic Concepts:• It is generally better to spend more time analyzing the data

and information as opposed to collecting them. The goal is to find the “golden nuggets” that quickly confirm or deny a hypothesis

Problem

Hypothesis

FactsAnalysis

Solution


Developing the Solution

Definition:• Solutions are the final recommendations

presented to our clients based on the outcomes of the hypothesis testing

Basic Concepts:• It is important to ensure the solution fits the

client – solutions are useless if they cannot be implemented.

Problem

Hypothesis

FactsAnalysis

Solution


Decision Making?????

1. Conflicts within organizations

2. How to avoid decisions?


Intuitive Decision Making

• Ability to know when a problem or opportunity exists and select the best course of action without conscious reasoning


Employee Involvement in Decision Making

The degree that employees share information, knowledge, rewards, and power throughout the organization

– active in decisions previous outside their control

– power to influence decisions

– knowledge sharing


How Involvement Improves Decisions

EmployeeInvolvement

Identify and define Identify and define problems betterproblems better

More likely to selectMore likely to selectthe best optionthe best option

Usually identify more Usually identify more and better solutionsand better solutions


Contingencies of Employee Involvement

• Decision quality

• Decision commitment

• Decision conflict

• Structured problem


Overcoming Involvement Challenges

• Cultural Differences– Better in collectivist and low power distance

cultures

• Management Resistance– Educate/train managers to become facilitators

• Employee and Union Resistance– Concerns about increased stress, giving up union

rights, and union power

– Solution is trust and involvement

Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate Professor 17

Framework for Decision Making

Known andKnown andwell definedwell defined

Unusual Unusual andand

ambiguousambiguous

Innovative decisions

Adaptive decisions

Routinedecisions

Risk

Uncertainty

Certainty

Conditions u

nder w

hich dec

isions a

re m

ade

Untried andUntried andambiguousambiguous

Management Lesson - 1

Sure,why not

Can I also sitlike you anddo nothing

all day long?

To be sitting and doing nothing,To be sitting and doing nothing,you must be sitting very, very high up...you must be sitting very, very high up...


I would loveto be able toget to the topof that tree.But I haven’t

got the energy

Well, why don’t younibble on some

of my droppings.They are packedwith nutrients.

The turkey peckedat a lump of dungand found that itactually gave him

enough strength toreach the first

branch of the tree.The next day, after

eating some more dung,he reached the secondbranch. Finally after afortnight, there he wasproudly perched at thetop of the tree. Soon hewas promptly spottedby a farmer, who shotthe turkey out of the

tree!

Bullshit might get you to the top,Bullshit might get you to the top,but it won’t keep you there...but it won’t keep you there...


1.1. Not everyone who drops shit on you is your enemyNot everyone who drops shit on you is your enemy

A little bird was flyingsouth for the winter.

While it was lying there, a cow came byand dropped some dung on it. As the

frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung,it began to realize how warm it was. The dungwas actually thawing him out. He lay there all

warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy

A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate.Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under thepile of cow dung, and promptly dug him out and ate him!

2.2. Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friendNot everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend3.3. And when you are in deep shit, keep your mouth shut!And when you are in deep shit, keep your mouth shut!


Thank YouThank You

Presented by:

Dr. Gaurav BissaAssociate Professor

Govt. Engineering CollegeBikaner

Phone – 9414475264

Decision making

Career

Transcript of Decision making