Project Decision-making: Is Decision-making the Missing Process?
Decision making
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Transcript of Decision making
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DECISION MAKING:THE ESSENCE OF
THE MANAGER’S JOB
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-11
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Learning Objectives You should learn to:
Outline the steps in the decision-making process
Explain why decision making is so pervasive in organizations
Describe the rational decision maker Contrast the perfectly rational and boundedly
rational approaches to decision making Explain the role that intuition plays in the
decision-making process
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-22
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Learning Objectives (cont.) You should learn to:
Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them
Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty
Describe the different decision-making styles
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-33
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Decisions choices from two or more alternatives all organizational members make decisions
Decision-Making Process a comprehensive, 8-step process Step 1 - Identifying a Problem
problem - discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs
must be such that it exerts pressure to act manager is unlikely to characterize a situation as a
problem unless s/he has resources necessary to act
Decision Making
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-44
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The Decision-Making Process
ProblemIdentification
“My salespeople
need new computers”
Identification of Decision Criteria
PriceWeightWarrantyScreen typeReliabilityScreen size
Allocation ofWeights to
Criteria
Reliability 10Screen size 8Warranty 5Weight 5Price 4Screen type 3
Development of Alternatives
AcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba
Implementationof an Alternative
GatewayEvaluationof Decision
Effectiveness
Analysis ofAlternatives
AcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba
Selection of anAlternative
AcerCompaqGateway HPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-55
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Decision-Making Process (cont.) Step 2 - Identifying Decision Criteria
decision criteria - what’s relevant in making a decision
Step 3 - Allocating Weights to the Criteria must weight the criteria to give them appropriate
priority in the decision Step 4 - Developing Alternatives
list the viable alternatives that could resolve the problem without evaluating them
Step 5 - Analyzing Alternatives each alternative is evaluated against the criteria
Decision Making (cont.)
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-66
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Assessed Values of Notebook Computer
Alternatives Against Decision Criteria
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-77
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Evaluation of Laptop Computer Alternatives Against Criteria and Weights
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-88
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Decision Making (cont.) Decision-Making Process (cont.)
Step 6 - Selecting an Alternative choosing the best alternative from among those
considered Step 7 - Implementing the Alternative
implementation - conveying the decision to those affected by it and getting their commitment to it
participation in decision-making process inclines people to support the decision
decision may fail if it is not implemented properly Step 8 - Evaluating Decision Effectiveness
determine whether the problem is resolved
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-99
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Decisions in the Management Functions
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1010
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The Manager As Decision Maker
Rational Decision Making decisions are consistent, value-maximizing
choices within specified constraints managers assumed to make rational decisions Assumptions of Rationality - decision maker
would: be objective and logical carefully define a problem have a clear and specific goal select the alternative that maximizes the likelihood of
achieving the goal make decision in the firm’s best economic interests
managerial decision making seldom meets all the tests
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1111
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Assumptions Of Rationality
RationalDecisionMaking
Problem isclear and
unambiguous
Single, well-defined goal
is to be achievedAll alternatives
and consequences
are known
Preferencesare clear
Preferencesare constantand stable
No time or costconstraints exist
Final choicewill maximize
payoff
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1212
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The Manager As Decision Maker (cont.) Bounded Rationality
behave rationally within the parameters of a simplified decision-making process that is limited by an individual’s ability to process information
satisfice - accept solutions that are “good enough”
escalation of commitment - increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong
refusal to admit that the initial decision may have been flawed
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1313
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The Manager As Decision Maker (cont.)
Role of Intuition intuitive decision making -
subconscious process of making decisions on the basis of experience and accumulated judgment
does not rely on a systematic or thorough analysis of the problem
generally complements a rational analysis
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1414
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What Is Intuition?Decisions basedon experience
Decisions basedon feelings and
emotions
Decisions basedon ethical values
or culture
Decisions basedon subconscious
data
Decisions basedon skills,
knowledge,or training
Intuition
Affect-initiateddecisions
Experienced-based decisions
Values orethics-based
decisions
Subconsciousmental
processing
Cognitive-based
decisions
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1515
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The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.)
Types of Problems and Decisions Well-Structured Problems - straightforward,
familiar, and easily defined Programmed Decisions - used to address
structured problems minimize the need for managers to use discretion facilitate organizational efficiency
procedure - series of interrelated sequential steps used to respond to a structured problem
rule - explicit statement of what to do or not to do policy - guidelines or parameters for decision
making© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1616
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The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.) Types of Problems and Decisions (cont.)
Poorly-Structured Problems - new, unusual problems for which information is ambiguous or incomplete
Nonprogrammed Decisions - used to address poorly- structured problems
produce a custom-made response more frequent among higher-level managers
few decisions in the real world are either fully programmed or non programmed
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1717
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Types Of Problems, Types Of Decisions, And Level In The Organization
ProgrammedDecisions
NonprogrammedDecisions Level in
Organization
Top
LowerWell-structured
Ill-structured
Type ofProblem
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1818
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The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.)
Decision-Making Conditions Certainty - outcome of every
alternative is known idealistic rather than realistic
Risk - able to estimate the probability of outcomes stemming from each alternative
expected value - the conditional return from each possible outcome
multiply expected revenue from each outcome by the probability of each outcome
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-1919
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Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-2020
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The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.)
Decision-Making Conditions (cont.) Uncertainty - not certain about
outcomes and unable to estimate probabilities
psychological orientation of decision maker
maximax choice - optimistic maximizing the maximum possible payoff
maximin choice - pessimistic maximizing the minimum possible payoff
minimax - minimize the maximum “regret”© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-2121
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Payoff Matrix
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-2222
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Regret Matrix
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-2323
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The Manager As A Decision Maker (cont.)
Decision-Making Styles two dimensions define the approach to
decision making way of thinking - differs from rational to intuitive tolerance for ambiguity - differs from a need for
consistency and order to the ability to process many thoughts simultaneously
define four decision-making styles Directive - fast, efficient, and logical Analytic - careful and able to adapt or cope with
new situations Conceptual - able to find creative solutions Behavioral - seek acceptance of decisions
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-2424
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Decision-Making Styles
Analytic
Directive Behavioral
Rational IntuitiveWay of Thinking
Conceptual
High
Low
Tol
eran
ce f
or A
mbi
guity
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-2525
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Managing Workforce Diversity
Diversity in Decision Making Advantages - diverse employees:
provide fresh perspectives offer differing interpretations of problem definition increase the likelihood of creative and unique
solutions Disadvantages - diverse employees:
require more time to reach a decision may have problems of communication may create a more complex, confusing, and
ambiguous decision-making process may have difficulty in reaching agreement
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-2626
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Overview Of Managerial Decision Making
Decision-MakingProcess
Types of Problems and Decisions• Well-structured
- programmed• Poorly structured
- nonprogrammed
Decision-Making Conditions• Certainty
• Risk• Uncertainty
Decision Maker Style• Directive• Analytic
• Conceptual• Behavioral
Decision-Making Approach• Rationality
• Bounded Rationality• Intuition
Decision• Choose best alternative - maximizing - satisficing• Implementing• Evaluating
© Prentice Hall, 2002 6-6-2727