DeCiDe einem IT-gestütztes Simulationsmodell und...
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Demographic Megatrends in Asia and Eastern Europe – Challenges and Opportunities for Health and Social Protection November 13 – 14, 2013, Hanoi, Viet Nam Dr. Thomas Ott OAGIS IT-Tool DeCiDe Demographic Challenges in Development
Transcript of DeCiDe einem IT-gestütztes Simulationsmodell und...
Demographic Megatrends in Asia and Eastern Europe – Challenges and Opportunities for Health and Social Protection
November 13 – 14, 2013, Hanoi, Viet Nam
Dr. Thomas Ott OAGIS
IT-Tool DeCiDe Demographic Challenges in Development
Objectives
to visualize demographic scenarios,
to illustrate the interrelationships between demography, development and global challenges,
to derive and prioritize objectives and strategies,
to identify potential fields of cooperation.
Target Audience
(political) decision makers in partner countries
executives and consultants in governmental departments
sectoral experts (in need to add a demographic aspect)
journalists, students and other multipliers
Technical Background and User Interface
Microsoft Excel™ 2007 and higher
150+ Sheets
multilingual (German, English, French, …)
distinct color scheme for ease of orientation
open access to all data allowing easy updates and modifications
Content and Structure
10 demographic challenges with 57 indicators (time series)
14 demographic options and policy fields
spaces for user-defined challenges and options
interactive assessment of challenges and options for mutual development of strategies
6 simulations of future population growth and change
prototype with data for 6 countries from 3 continents (each country with 2 reference countries)
Challenges Options Strategies
CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11
Overview of Challenges
Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges
Introduction
Settings
Looking back
Looking ahead
I Introduction
II Challenges
III Options
IV Strategies
Population Data/Capacities Population Growth Populations Structure Population Distribution
Challenges Poverty
Scarcity of Resources
Health Risks
Climate Change
Ageing and Lack of Social Security
Lack of Prospects for Young People
Susceptibility to Conflicts, Missing Government and Security
Urbanization
Development of Rural Areas and Food Supply
Migration
User Defined Challenges
CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11
Overview of Challenges
Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges
Overview of Options and Policy Fields
OP 1 OP 2 OP 3 OP 4 OP 5 OP 7 OP 6 OP 10 OP 11 OP 14 OP 12 OP 8 OP 9 OP 13 OP 15
Aggregation and Weighting of Options
Introduction
Settings
Looking back
Looking ahead
I Introduction
II Challenges
III Options
IV Strategies
Population Data/Capacities Population Growth Populations Structure Population Distribution
Policy Fields and Options Demographic Capacity Development
Rights and Self-Determination of Women
Security of Resources
Health Care, SRHR and Family Planning
Adaption to Climate Change
Establishing and Strengthening of Social Security Systems
Education
Promoting the Young Generation
Employment Policy and Economic Development
Supporting Generational Ties
Governance and Security
Urban Development and Urban Planning
Rural Development and Decentralization
Organizing Migration
User Defined Challenges
CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11
Overview of Challenges
Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges
Overview of Options and Policy Fields
OP 1 OP 2 OP 3 OP 4 OP 5 OP 7 OP 6 OP 10 OP 11 OP 14 OP 12 OP 8 OP 9 OP 13 OP 15
Aggregation and Weighting of Options
Final Assessment and Simulation Results
Joint Definition of Strategies
Introduction
Settings
Looking back
Looking ahead
I Introduction
II Challenges
III Options
IV Strategies
Population Data/Capacities Population Growth Populations Structure Population Distribution
Final Assessment and Simulation “Traffic Lights”
Projection of demographic key indicators
Interactive Presentation of the Tool
