December 3rd, 2008 Massoud Jourabchi€¦ · ¾Review of Economic forecasts - 10:10 -11:00 ¾Review...
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1 12/3/2008 1 Demand Forecast Advisory Committee Demand Forecast Advisory Committee Meeting Meeting December 3rd, 2008 Massoud Jourabchi 12/3/2008 2 This meeting will cover This meeting will cover ¾ Review of Economic forecasts - 10:10 - 11:00 ¾ Review of Base Case load forecast - 11:00 - 11:45 ¾ Lunch 11:45 - 1:00 ¾ Discussion of Alternative scenarios - 1:00 - 2:00 ¾ Background on Council’s Portfolio Model/ 2:00 - 3:00 ¾ Interaction with Demand Forecast/Conservation ¾ General Discussions and next steps 3:00 - 4:00
Transcript of December 3rd, 2008 Massoud Jourabchi€¦ · ¾Review of Economic forecasts - 10:10 -11:00 ¾Review...
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12/3/2008 1
Demand Forecast Advisory Committee Demand Forecast Advisory Committee MeetingMeeting
December 3rd, 2008Massoud Jourabchi
12/3/2008 2
This meeting will coverThis meeting will coverReview of Economic forecasts - 10:10 - 11:00
Review of Base Case load forecast - 11:00 - 11:45
Lunch 11:45 - 1:00
Discussion of Alternative scenarios - 1:00 - 2:00
Background on Council’s Portfolio Model/ 2:00 - 3:00Interaction with Demand Forecast/Conservation
General Discussions and next steps 3:00 - 4:00
2
12/3/2008 3
CouncilCouncil’’s Planning Process s Planning Process
Demand ForecastDemand Forecast••Price effectPrice effect
••Frozen efficiencyFrozen efficiency••Sales Sales
ConservationPotential
AssessmentModel
Resource Portfolio Optimization Model
Other Supply Resource Options
CostCost--effective Cons.effective Cons.
Frozen Eff. Usage & unitsFrozen Eff. Usage & units
OptimumOptimumConservationConservation
TargetsTargets
ConservationConservationSupply Supply CurvesCurves
FrozenFrozenEff. Load Eff. Load
12/3/2008 4
Brief review of National ForecastBrief review of National Forecast
Recession in 2008- 2009?25% chance of deepening recession in 2009 if financial packages can not unfreeze lending
GDP contracting 2% in 2009 GDP growing 0.8% in 2010
Source: Global Insight October 2008
3
12/3/2008 5
Slow down in US Economy Slow down in US Economy
Growth rate1990-2007 2008-2010 2010-2030
3.43% 2.6% 3.50% Industrial Production--All Manufacturing3.22% 1.6% 2.44% Real Gross National Product3.17% 1.7% 2.82% Real Disposable Income1.94% -1.2% 1.49% Real Gross Private Investment In All Structures
12/3/2008 6
US Housing MarketUS Housing Market
Current large inventory In 2008, housing starts slipped to less than 1 million units, lowest since 1945.Expected to drop further the 800,000 units in 2009.Market Price adjustment continuing, Mean price dropping from $215,000 in 2007 to $179,000 by 2009.Housing market is projected to hit bottom in the second quarter 2009.
4
12/3/2008 7
US Residential Construction Spending Billions of $2000 Dollars
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Single FamilyMulti-familyManufactured homeHome Improvements
12/3/2008 8
Regional Residential Single Family Housing Regional Residential Single Family Housing Value Adjustment continuesValue Adjustment continues
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1985
PortlandSeattleSpokane Boise City
5
12/3/2008 9
US Nonresidential Construction Spending
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bill
ions
of $
2000
Commercial and Health Care Manufacturing
12/3/2008 10
Comparison of Comparison of Key Regional Economic Drivers Key Regional Economic Drivers
Indicates Slow Growth PathIndicates Slow Growth Path
3.3%3.6%Transportation ( $billions of $2000 income/output)
3.9%4.4%Agriculture Output (billions of $2000)
3.0%4.1%Manufacturing Output (billions $2000)
1.5%2.3%Commercial Floor space (millions of sqf)
1.7%1.8%Residential (000's units)
1.3%1.6%Population
2010-2030 1985-2007 Drivers
6
12/3/2008 11
Reminder on Key Economic DriversReminder on Key Economic Drivers
For Residential sector: number of homesFor commercial sector: square footage of buildingsFor Industrial/Ag sector: Dollar value of output.For transportation sector: Sectoral income and number of new carsOther drivers include:Fuel and electricity prices, saturation rate assumptions, Energy efficiency and energy intensity of use.
12/3/2008 12
Summary of Growth Rates in 6Summary of Growth Rates in 6thth
PlanPlan’’s Economic Driverss Economic Drivers
0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%
Popula
tion
Reside
ntial
Commerc
ial Fl
oor s
pace
Manufa
cturin
g Outp
ut
Mining
Outp
ut
Agricu
lture
Output
Tran
spor
tation
1985-20072010-2030
7
12/3/2008 13
Residential sectorResidential sector
Population GrowthChanging Composition of Population Impact on regional economy
12/3/2008 14
Regional Population is the Regional Population is the Primary DriverPrimary Driver
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ID MT OR WA
thousands
8
12/3/2008 15
Changing Composition of PopulationChanging Composition of Population
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Age 0 thru 19 Age 20 thru 64 Age 65 and Older
12/3/2008 16
Declining Household SizeDeclining Household Size
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ID MT OR WA
9
12/3/2008 17
New Single Family AdditionsNew Single Family Additions
-10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ID MT OR WA Four State-Total
12/3/2008 18
Personal IncomePersonal Income(Billions of 2000 dollars)(Billions of 2000 dollars)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ID MT OR WA Four State- Total
10
12/3/2008 19
Raising Per Capita IncomeRaising Per Capita Incomeconstant $2000constant $2000
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
IDMTORWA
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Growing Average Size (SQF)Growing Average Size (SQF)New Single Family Homes New Single Family Homes
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1950 1970 1990 2004 2007
11
12/3/2008 21
Composition of Regional Composition of Regional Housing stock Housing stock –– fairly stablefairly stable
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Single Family Multi Family Manufactured Homes
12/3/2008 22
Single Family69%
Multi Family24%
Other Family7%
Breakdown of Northwest Residential Breakdown of Northwest Residential Electricity Consumption (2005) Electricity Consumption (2005)
12
12/3/2008 23
Commercial Sector DriversCommercial Sector Drivers
Commercial square footageCommercial square footage is driven by employmentExtensive analysis was done to estimate square footage requirement
Major shifts in employment Shift in intensity
12/3/2008 24
Projected Growth in Commercial Projected Growth in Commercial Employment (in 1000)Employment (in 1000)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ID MT OR WA Four State-Total
13
12/3/2008 25
Changing Composition of Changing Composition of Commercial Employment Commercial Employment
Businesses with Increasing Employment Market Share 1997 2007 2030Health Care and Social Assistance 10.8% 11.7% 12.5%Administrative and Support and Waste Management 5.4% 6.1% 9.7%Information 2.9% 3.1% 3.7%Construction 6.4% 7.4% 7.8%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 5.1% 5.5% 7.4%Wholesale Trade 5.5% 5.0% 5.4%Businesses with Declining or stable Market Share 1997 2007 2030Government Employees 21.3% 20.0% 18.0%Retail Trade 13.8% 13.1% 10.7%Accommodation and Food Services 9.6% 9.4% 7.8%Transportation and Warehousing 3.9% 3.4% 3.5%Other Services (except Public Administration) 4.4% 3.9% 3.5%Finance and Insurance 4.0% 4.1% 3.4%Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 2.2% 2.2% 1.9%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%Educational Services 1.5% 1.7% 1.6%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1.4% 1.4% 1.3%Utilities 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%Total Employment in Commercial Activities (000) 4,222 5,117 6,531
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-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
2029
Mill
ions
of S
QF
Commercial Floor Space Commercial Floor Space Additions (Northwest Region) Additions (Northwest Region)
14
12/3/2008 27
Energy Intensity in Commercial Energy Intensity in Commercial Sector (MWH/employee)Sector (MWH/employee)
1010.210.410.610.8
1111.211.411.611.8
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
12/3/2008 28
Retail16%
Office35%
Restaurant5%
Other10%
Hospital10%
Lodging5%
Assembly5%
Warehouse5%
Supermarket4%
University2%
K-123%
Breakdown of Electricity Breakdown of Electricity Consumption Consumption –– 4 State Total (2005)4 State Total (2005)
15
12/3/2008 29
Economic Drivers of Industrial sector Economic Drivers of Industrial sector Demand for EnergyDemand for Energy
Sectoral output drives the demand for energySectoral output grows as employment and productivity in the sector increases.Employment has been flatProductivity has been increasingElectricity intensity declining
12/3/2008 30
Projected Employment in Projected Employment in ManufacturingManufacturing
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ID MT OR WA Four State-Total
16
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Growth in Manufacturing OutputGrowth in Manufacturing Output
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ID MT OR WA Four State-Total
12/3/2008 32
gKWH/1000 dollars of output ($2000)
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Regional Change in Intensity of Regional Change in Intensity of Electricity Use Electricity Use –– Manufacturing SectorManufacturing Sector
17
12/3/2008 33
19971997--2005 Growth rate in dollars of output per unit of 2005 Growth rate in dollars of output per unit of Labor (productivity)Labor (productivity)
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Food
Beverage and tobacco
Textile mills
Textile product mills
Apparel
Leather and allied product
Wood product
Paper
Printing and related activities
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Nonmetallic mineral product
Primary metal
Fabricated metal product
Machinery
Computer and electronic product
Electrical equip.& component
Transportation equipment
Furniture and related product
Miscellaneous
Mining
12/3/2008 34
Changing Mix of Industrial Electricity SalesChanging Mix of Industrial Electricity Sales
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1986 2000 2010
Primary Metals
Paper
Lumber
Chemicals
Computers & Machines
Food
Transportation eq
18
12/3/2008 35
2006 Northwest Regional Industrial Electricity Consumption Shares (non-DSI)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Mechan
ical P
ulp
Kraft P
ulpPap
er
Foundrie
s
Frozen Food
Other Food
Wood - Lumbe
r
Wood - Pan
el
Wood - Othe
rSugar
Hi Tech
- Chip
Fab
Hi Tech
- Silic
on
Metal F
ab
Transp
ortatio
n, Equip
Refinery
Cold Storage
Fruit Stor
age
Chemica
l
Misc Man
f
12/3/2008 36
Summary Sheet Summary Sheet
Comparison of Economic Drivers during 5th Plan and 6th Plan Periods
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12/3/2008 37Photo illustration by George Lange, with Michael Miller (Plug) –Popular Mechanics
Analysis of Impact of Analysis of Impact of PlugPlug--in Hybrid Electric in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Demand for Vehicles on Demand for ElectricityElectricity
12/3/2008 38
Simple Simple ““ What If What If ”” model model Forecast of passenger and light trucks –Global Insight Market share fraction ~ slow to start: .05% 2010-2013, ~26% by 2025Miles traveled per day ~33 held constantEnergy requirement ~ 0.26-0.46 KWh/mile (0.3 midsize)Energy efficiency improvement -5% per yearBattery size 10 KWh Available battery type Lithium-Ion T&D and conversion efficiency losses ~20%Recharge at 110 v 15 amp in 8 hoursRecharge at 220 v 30 amp in under 2 hoursAssumed 95% recharge off peak, 5% during peak hoursCurrent average MPG for gasoline vehicles 20.2 CO2 emissions for gasoline ~ 1 lb/mile
20
12/3/2008 39
Plug-in Hybrid Electric VehiclesMarket Share of New Vehicles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Perc
ent o
f New
car
s
Low
Base
High
12/3/2008 40
Impact of PHEV on Northwest Energy MWa
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Low
Base
High
21
12/3/2008 41
Projected Regional Load from Projected Regional Load from Custom Data CentersCustom Data Centers
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
MW
Loa
d
Low CaseBase CaseHigh Case
12/3/2008 42
Fuel Price ProjectionsFuel Price Projections
For the Natural Gas, Oil, and Coal, price projections are based on Council’s forecast with feedback from advisory group.
22
12/3/2008 43
Projected Fuel PricesProjected Fuel Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
OilNatural GasCoal
$90/barrel
$55/barrel
$70/barrel
$39/barrel
$75/barrel
$65/barrel
$27/barrel
$8/barrel
$2006 / MM
Btu
12/3/2008 44
Fuel Price ProjectionsFuel Price Projections
For Electricity price- calculated based on2007 Retail rates by state and sectorWholesale market prices at Mid C 2007Differential between retail rates and wholesale prices in 2007Wholesale market prices at Mid C 2008-2030Above market Cost of RPS resources 2008-2030
23
12/3/2008 45
Wholesale Prices at MidC (2006$)( 6th Plan 03-13-2008 RPS HCAPTL HD )
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
12/3/2008 46
Electricity Prices is calculated as sum of Electricity Prices is calculated as sum of
STATE
AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE OF ELECTRICITY 2007 $/MWH
WHOLESALE PRICE FORECAST FOR MID C * 2007 $/MWH
PROXY FOR TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION CHARGES 2007 $/MWH
IDAHO 50.63 45.34 5.03 MONTANA 75.06 45.34 29.46 OREGON 69.96 45.34 24.36 WASHINGTON 64.12 45.34 18.52
24
12/3/2008 47
Price of Electricity - Base Case Scenario PE (2006$/mWh) Residential Sector Commercial Sector Industrial Sector
Oregon Washington Idaho Montana Oregon Washington Idaho Montana Oregon Washington Idaho Montana2000 69 60 63 76 60 55 50 61 42 39 37 472007 84 79 64 92 75 70 48 78 58 48 36 802020 88 78 66 91 79 71 54 84 57 53 41 612030 99 87 74 99 90 80 62 92 68 61 50 69
Annual Growth 2000-2007 2.9% 3.9% 0.3% 2.7% 3.2% 3.6% -0.3% 3.5% 4.8% 3.2% -0.1% 8.1%2010-2030 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.6%
12/3/2008 48
Regional Load Forecast MWa Regional Load Forecast MWa (Price effect)(Price effect)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
MW
a
BASE CASE
1986-2007 Actual Load 2008-2030 Load Forecast with Normal WeatherExcludes new Conservation
25
12/3/2008 49
Regional Peak Load (MW)Regional Peak Load (MW)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Base Case-Summer
Base Case - WinterMW
Estimated Actual Peak Load Projected Peak Load
12/3/2008 50
Summary of Projections for Summary of Projections for 20102010--2030 2030
2.0%2.7%2.0%High Growth
1.7%2.3%1.6%Base Case
1.3%2.0%1.2%Low Growth
Winter PeakSummer PeakEnergyScenario
26
12/3/2008 51
Residential Customers Monthly Bill /Household 2006$Oregon Washington Idaho Montana
1986 73 72 81 62 2007 80 82 68 81 2020 86 87 74 87 2025 98 99 85 99 2030 106 108 94 109
Increase in Monthly Bills1986-2000 -0.3% -0.5% -0.8% 0.1%2000-2007 2.1% 3.1% 0.1% 3.6%2010-2030 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
Increase in Bills For Same Level of Sales2010-2030 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1%
12/3/2008 52
Lunch Break
Next on agendaDiscussion of Alternative scenarios - 1:00 - 2:00
Council’s Portfolio Model/ 2:00 - 3:00Interaction with Demand Forecast/Conservation
General Discussions and next steps 3:00 - 4:00
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12/3/2008 53
12/3/2008 54
ScenariosScenarios
Two alternative economic growth trajectories are considered
Low CaseHigh CaseEach scenario was developed using detail national level projections from Global Insights October 2008 .
28
12/3/2008 55
Driving Forces CouncilDriving Forces Council’’s 6s 6thth Plan ScenariosPlan Scenarios
6th plan’s High fuel price scenario
6th plan’s Low fuel price scenario
6th plan’s Medium fuel price scenario
Fuel Supply and Demand Balance
Strong public, and business support for green
Watered down National and regional actions
Some Regional Policies in response to Climate Change
Climate Change
Strong economic growth
Slow Economic growth
Moderately strong economic
High CaseLOW CaseBase CaseScenarios and Key Drivers
EconomyGlobal, National
& Regional
12/3/2008 56
Low Case ScenarioLow Case Scenario
This scenario is reflective of a future with slow economic growth, weak demand for fossil fuels, declining fuel prices; slow down in labor productivity and low inflation rate. In this scenario, economic concerns weakens the reaction to climate change. No federal or regional cap-and-trade or CO2 tax is implemented.
29
12/3/2008 57
High Case ScenarioHigh Case Scenario
High Case scenario assumes faster economic growth, stronger demand, higher prices for fuels, sustained growth in labor productivity and higher inflation rate. This scenario, assumes climate change concerns and demand for cleaner fuels and national cap-and-trade or CO2 tax pushes fuel prices to a higher trajectory.
12/3/2008 58
Carbon Policies (Draft)Carbon Policies (Draft)
Base Case: Regional markets implemented, national cap and trade program post 2015, focus on utilities.Low Case Scenario: No strict controls on CO2High Case Scenario: Nationwide, economy-wide carbon tax by ?
30
12/3/2008 59
Natural Gas Natural Gas
Low Case scenario: Boom and Bust cycles continue. Weak demand keeps pressure on prices to remain low.High Case Scenario: Strong economic growth, strong public support for clean options, pushes price of gas up.
12/3/2008 60
Climate ChangeClimate Change
University Of Washington Long-term trends in climate (temperature) change in the NW.Work-in-progress
31
12/3/2008 61
Employment in each sectorEmployment in each sectorPercent change from Base casePercent change from Base case
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Educational Facilities
Medical Facilities
Office
Lodging
Assembly
Restaurant
Retail
Supermarket
Warehouse
Other
Pessimistic Optimistic
12/3/2008 62
Variance in Output in Industrial SectorsVariance in Output in Industrial Sectors
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
LumberStone, Clay, etc.
AluminumOther Primary Metals
Fabricated MetalsMachines & Computer
Electric EquipmentTransport Equipment
FurnitureOther Manufacturing
ManufacturingNon-durable Manufacturing
Food ManufacturingFood & Tobacco
TextilesApparelLeather
PaperPrinting
Petroleum ProductsChemicals
Rubber
Pessimistic Optimistic
32
12/3/2008 63
Variance in Other key DriversVariance in Other key Drivers
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Mining
Agriculture
Number of New Vehicles
Personal Income
Pessimistic Optimistic
12/3/2008 64
Range in Range in CouncilCouncil’’s Fuel Price Forecasts Fuel Price Forecast
1.2%0.5%-0.5%Coal
1.7%0.9%-1.3%Natural Gas
2.0%1.1%-1.11%Oil
High CaseBaseLow Case
Annual Growth Rate in Fuel Prices 2010-2030
33
12/3/2008 65
Load Forecast (price effect)Load Forecast (price effect)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
MW
a
BASE CASELOW CASEHIGH CASE
1986-2007 Actual Load 2008-2030 Load Forecast with Normal WeatherExcludes new Conservation
12/3/2008 66
Regional Peak Load ProjectionsRegional Peak Load Projections
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Low Case- SummerBase Case-SummerHigh Case- SummerLow Case- WinterBase Case - WinterHigh Case- WinterMW
Estimated Actual Peak Load Projected Peak Load
34
12/3/2008 67
Comparison of Growth Rates Across Sectors 2010Comparison of Growth Rates Across Sectors 2010--20302030
0.7%0.6%-0.1%Industrial1.3%1.6%1.2%Commercial1.8%2.2%2.1%Residential2.0%1.6%1.2%Total
High CaseBase CaseLow Case
12/3/2008 68
Summary of Projections for Summary of Projections for 20102010--2030 2030
2.0%2.7%2.0%High Growth
1.7%2.3%1.6%Base Case
1.3%2.0%1.2%Low Growth
Winter PeakSummer PeakEnergyScenario
35
12/3/2008 69
Comparison of the Growth Rates in Comparison of the Growth Rates in the Forecasts the Forecasts
2.10%1.63%1.11%6th Plan
1.84%1.36%0.91%5th Plan
Med High/HighMediumMed Low/Low2005-25
12/3/2008 70
Residential Customers Monthly Bill /Household 2006$Oregon Washington Idaho Montana
1986 73 72 81 62 2007 80 82 68 81 2020 86 87 74 87 2025 98 99 85 99 2030 106 108 94 109
Increase in Monthly Bills1986-2000 -0.3% -0.5% -0.8% 0.1%2000-2007 2.1% 3.1% 0.1% 3.6%2010-2030 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
Increase in Bills For Same Level of Sales2010-2030 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1%
36
12/3/2008 71
Next StepsNext Steps
Finalize Electricity Wholesale Price ForecastIncorporate additional information coming in from
Industrial ICE
Prepare report for public comment
12/3/2008 72
Next Items on the AgendaNext Items on the Agenda
Council’s Portfolio Model
General Discussions Modeling Impact of Climate Change (time permitting)
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