DEAR CLIENT, INVITATIONEDENRED Zurich Cross-country Company Roadshow 10/11/2016 ... ELTEL SS...

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

of 50

Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

9 November 2016

DEAR CLIENT,

INVITATION

“31st ESN EUROPEAN CONFERENCE”

London, 13 December 2016

Merchant Taylors’ Hall (30 Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8JB)

Companies available for one-to-one meetings Please consult the ESN website conference dedicated page

http://www.esnpartnership.eu/conferences/actual

ESN Top Picks

Roadshows

Corporate Events

Tactical Sector Views

ESN European Top Picks

OPAP (OUT)- SMALL & MID CAPS

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES

Campari upgraded to Accumulate from Neutral 9M sales higher than expected end EBIT in line

NEWS BY SECTOR

BANKS Sector News Portugal: Use of ECB funds stable in October 2016 (EUR 23.5bn) Sector News Bank of Portugal statistical data - September 2016 Banca Carige (Neutral) Q3 16 results Creval (Neutral) Q3 16 results Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (Buy) Preview Q3 results (14.11.) Natixis (Accumulate) A lacklustre quarter Poste Italiane (Accumulate) 3Q 2016 preview: insurance ought to lead the performance

ELECTRONIC & ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT Alstom (Buy) Very good half-year results

FINANCIAL SERVICES Banca Generali (Not rated) 3Q 16 results better than consensus FinecoBank (Buy) 3Q16 results in line with expectations

FOOD & BEVERAGE Campari (Accumulate) 9M sales higher than expected end EBIT in line Raisio (Buy) Raisio’s Q3 results below forecasts, guidance downgraded as a result of GBP depreciation

GENERAL RETAILERS Yoox Net-A-Porter (Buy) Further top line growth expected in Q3

http://www.esnpartnership.eu/conferences/actual

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

of 50


HEALTHCARE Epigenomics AG (Buy) Q3 2016, guidance range narrowed, capital increase

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Prysmian (Accumulate) Q3 results: in line with expectations

INSURANCE Banca Mediolanum (Accumulate) 3Q 16 results slightly higher than expected Munich Re (Neutral) Q3 results above our forecast

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Astaldi (Reduce) Decent results expected in Q3 Maire Tecnimont (Accumulate) Good and better than expected results

MEDIA M6-Métropole Télévision (Neutral) Q3 revenues: M6 continues to outperform the TV advertising market Mediaset (Accumulate) 9m 2016 Post: mixed picture Mediaset Espana (Buy) Estimates revised: lower revenues, higher profitability Rcs MediaGroup (Neutral) Q3 2016 Pre: no big expectations

OIL SERVICES Vallourec (Buy) Less-strong-than-expected EBITDA loss, transformation plan progress

PERSONAL GOODS Geox (Accumulate) 9M 16E sales preview Moncler (Buy) 9M 16 sales: another good release Safilo (Neutral) 9M 2016 results preview

REAL ESTATE IGD (Buy) Good results as expected

SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES Atos (Buy) 2019 plan: a new model across the entire group

SUPPORT SERVICES Batenburg (Accumulate) Positive market trends continued in Q3

TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE & EQUIPMENT Ericsson (Accumulate) Ericsson organises a Capital Markets Day on Thursday in New York Süss MicroTec (Neutral) 3Q16 Review: Disappointing results – guidance confirmed

TELECOMMUNICATIONS Freenet (Buy) Strong results especially in its Media/TV business OTE Hellenic Telecom (Buy) Release of 3Q/9M16 results tomorrow before market opening United Internet (Buy) Hats off to management for fetching a rich valuation

UTILITIES Erg (Accumulate) We expect mixed results in Q3 2016 Hera (Buy) Efficiencies and M&A ought to sustain 9M 2016 results

ESN Top Picks

of 50


Blue Chips Top Picks

Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of

0 8 / 11/ 2 0 16

Ta r ge t

P r i c e

Upsi de /

Downsi deEnt r y da t e

Ent r y

pr i c e

Ent r y

pr i c e

( D i v .

Adj )

Tot a l

Re t ur n

Ent r y To

Da t e

Re l . Cml . d

pe r f . v s Eur o

S t ox x

AM ADEUS Spain Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Buy 41.74 49.20 18% 18/ 08/ 2016 41.96 41.96 - 0 . 5 % -1.2%

CI E FI N . R I CHEM ONT Swit zerland Personal Goods Long Buy 67.05 76.00 13% 17/ 10/ 2016 66.30 66.30 1. 1% 1.6%

I NDI TEX Spain General Ret ailers Long Accumulat e 31.18 36.10 16% 18/ 08/ 2016 30.93 30.33 2 . 8 % 2.1%

KP N TELECOM Net herlands Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 2.85 3.55 25% 20/ 09/ 2016 2.82 2.82 0 . 8 % -0.0%

P OS TE I TALI ANE It aly Banks Long Accumulat e 6.03 7.90 31% 03/ 11/ 2016 5.96 5.96 1. 2 % 0.1%

RELX Net herlands Media Long Accumulat e 14.90 16.75 12% 27/ 10/ 2016 15.14 15.14 - 1. 6 % 0.4%

S TORA ENS O Finland Basic Resources Long Accumulat e 8.51 9.30 9% 17/ 10/ 2016 8.16 8.16 4 . 2 % 4.7%

TECHNI P France Oil Services Long Buy 60.54 67.00 11% 18/ 102016 58.60 58.60 3 . 3 % 3.3% source: ESN Members’ estimates

M/S Caps Top Picks

Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of

0 8 / 11/ 2 0 16

Ta r ge t

P r i c e

Upsi de /

Downsi deEnt r y da t e

Ent r y

pr i c e

Ent r y pr i c e

( D i v . Adj )

Tot a l

Re t ur n

Ent r y To

Da t e

Re l . Cml . d

pe r f . v s

Eur o

S t ox x

ACERI NOX Spain Basic Resources Long Buy 10.85 14.00 29% 18/ 08/ 2016 11.71 11.71 - 7 . 4 % -8.1%

ALTRAN France Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Buy 12.60 15.00 19% 17/ 10/ 2016 13.20 13.20 - 4 . 6 % -4.1%

CAF Spain Indust r ial Transport at ion Long Accumulat e 352.60 390.00 11% 18/ 08/ 2016 342.80 342.80 2 . 9 % 2.1%

DEUTS CHE P FANDBRI EFBANK Germany Banks Long Buy 9.20 12.30 34% 22/ 08/ 2016 8.10 8.10 13 . 6 % 12.7%

FOLLI FOLLI E GROUP Greece General Ret ailers Long Buy 21.33 25.00 17% 07/ 11/ 2016 20.91 20.91 2 . 0 % -0.1%

FORFARM ERS Net herlands Food & Beverage Long Buy 6.82 8.30 22% 28/ 09/ 2016 6.48 6.48 5 . 3 % 4.5%

FUGRO Net herlands Oil Services Long Buy 15.13 19.00 26% 20/ 10/ 2016 15.56 15.56 - 2 . 8 % -1.2%

J UM BO Greece General Ret ailers Long Buy 12.22 14.99 23% 21/ 10/ 2016 12.62 12.35 - 1. 1% 0.9%

NH HOTEL GROUP Spain Travel & Leisure Long Buy 4.06 6.80 68% 18/ 08/ 2016 4.00 4.00 1. 4 % 0.7%

NOS Port ugal Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 5.89 7.00 19% 17/ 10/ 2016 5.89 5.89 0 . 0 % 0.5%

RI B S OFTWARE Germany Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Buy 13.10 14.00 7% 20/ 06/ 2016 8.29 8.29 5 8 . 0 % 51.8%

TECHNOGYM It aly Personal Goods Long Buy 3.86 4.95 28% 15/ 06/ 2016 3.78 3.78 2 . 2 % -5.6%

THE NAVI GATOR COM P ANY Port ugal Basic Resources Long Buy 2.63 4.60 75% 22/ 06/ 2016 2.72 2.72 - 3 . 2 % -5.4%

YOOX NET- A- P ORTER It aly General Ret ailers Long Buy 25.33 31.30 24% 17/ 10/ 2016 27.82 27.82 - 9 . 0 % -8.5%

source: ESN Members’ estimates

This selection of stocks is not intended to provide a recommended portfolio; therefore there is no point in comparing its performance with any benchmark. The performance of each stock has to be considered independently. Risk factors are taken into account when selecting individual stocks but the risk profile of the selection as a whole is not considered. The approach used to select each investment idea is opportunistic with an absolute return target.

ESN Top Picks

of 50


OPAP (OUT)- SMALL & MID CAPS

Following the outperformance of the stock in the last 4 months and ahead of US elections, we are taking our profits and waiting for a more attractive entry point. OPAP leaves with a 41.8% performance.

Roadshows

of 50


SUBJECT LOCATION EVENT DATE

EDENRED Zurich Cross-country Company Roadshow 10/11/2016

Mediaset España Madrid Local Company Roadshow 10/11/2016

Kemira Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 11/11/2016

Repsol Vienna Cross-country Company Roadshow 21/11/2016

Mapfre Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 22/11/2016

Repsol Frankfurt Cross-country Company Roadshow 22/11/2016

AKKA TECHNOLOGIES Geneva Cross-country Company Roadshow 24/11/2016

Corporate Events

of 50


Corporate Events today

Source: Precise

CompanyBloomberg

codeDate Event Type Description

AIR FRANCE KLM AF FP 09/11/16 Sales October Traffic Figures

AKKA TECHNOLOGIES AKA FP 09/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales

ALSTOM ALO FP 09/11/16 Results Interim 2017 Earnings conference call / Webcast

ALO FP 09/11/16 Results Interim 2017 Results

ASTALDI AST IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

BCP BCP PL 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Press conference

BCP PL 09/11/16 AGM General Meeting re changes to AoA & board

BENETEAU BEN FP 09/11/16 Results Full year 2016 Results

DANIELI DAN IM 09/11/16 Dividend Payment Full year 2016 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 0.10

ELTEL ELTEL SS 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

ELTEL SS 09/11/16 Analyst Meeting Q3 2016 Results presentation / Webcast

EPIGENOMICS AG ECX GR 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

EURONEXT ENX FP 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

EUROPCAR EUCAR FP 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

FREENET FNTN GY 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

GENERALI G IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

GEOX GEO IM 09/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales conference call

GEO IM 09/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales

HEIDELBERG CEMENT AG HEI GR 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call

HEI GR 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

HERA HER IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call / Webcast

HER IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

MAIRE TECNIMONT MT IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call / Webcast

MT IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

MUNICH RE MUV2 GY 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

MUV2 GY 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call / Webcast

NATIXIS KN FP 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call / Webcast

NEURONES NRO FP 09/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales

OSRAM LICHT AG OSR GY 09/11/16 Results Full year 2016 Preliminary results

POSTE ITALIANE PST IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

PST IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call

QGEP QGEP3 BZ 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

RAISIO RAIVV FH 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

RCS MEDIAGROUP RCS IM 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

RUBIS RUI FP 09/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales

SAFILO SFL IM 09/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales conference call / Webcast

SFL IM 09/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales

SBM OFFSHORE SBMO NA 09/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Trading statement

SONAE SON PL 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

SUESS MICROTEC SMHN GY 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call

VIB VERMOEGEN VIH GY 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

VIVENDI VIV FP 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

VIV FP 09/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call / Webcast

ESN Tactical Sector Views

of 50


Tactical Sector Allocation Matrix July 2016

SectorCurrent Tactical

ViewAction

Previous

Tactical View

Stoxx 600

Weighting

LATEST REVIEW

DATE

Automobiles & Parts + upgrade = 3% Jul-16

Banks - - 10% Jul-16

Basic Resources = = 2% Jul-16

Chemicals = = 5% Jul-16

Construction & Materials + + 3% Jul-16

Financial Services - dow ngrade = 2% Jul-16

Food & Beverage + + 7% Jul-16

Healthcare + upgrade = 14% Jul-16

Industrial Good & Services + upgrade = 11% Jul-16

Insurance - dow ngrade + 6% Jul-16

Media - dow ngrade = 3% Jul-16

Oil & Gas = = 5% Jul-16

Personal & Household Goods + + 9% Jul-16

Real Estate + upgrade - 2% Jul-16

Retail - dow ngrade = 3% Jul-16

Technology + upgrade = 4% Jul-16

Telecommunications = dow ngrade + 5% Jul-16

Travel & Leisure + + 2% Jul-16

Utilities + upgrade - 4% Jul-16

Legend: + (Overw eight); =/+ (Slightly Overw eight); = (Market Weight); =/- (Slightly Underw eight); - (Underw eight);

Note: The tactical sector view is the shorter term trading view of the ESN strategy team and it can vary from the longer term

fundamental view of the relevant ESN sector analyst team

of 50


Portuguese Banks

Analyser

BANKS

Portugal: Use of ECB funds stable in October 2016 (EUR 23.5bn)

Portugal: Use of ECB funds stable in October 2016 (EUR

23.5bn)

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

out 15 nov 15 dez 15 jan 16 fev 16 mar 16 abr 16 mai 16 jun 16 jul 16 ago 16 set 16 out 16 nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

The facts: According to Bank of Portugal, the use of ECB funds by Portuguese

banks stood broadly stable in October 2016 (EUR 23.5bn).

Our analysis: October data points out to stabilization in the monthly use of

liquidity provided by the European Central Bank.

As we have highlighted in previous comments, the downward trend in the use of

this type of funding has been quite evident, with a cumulative reduction of EUR

2.6bn or 10.1% YtD. In fact, it should also be referred that the figure reported in

October is close to a 6 years minimum (being the 5th lowest since May 2010).

Overall, the use of ECB funds has been presenting a consistent downward

trend. This variable initiated a strong decline in 3Q13 (with a cumulative

reduction of EUR 28.3bn or 55% between 30 September 2013 and 31 October

2016). Since 9M13, there were 27 monthly reductions in the use of ECB funds

by Portuguese banks in the last 37 months.

On the other hand, we highlight that the bulk of this funding (88% or EUR

20.7bn) is related to the use of Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO & T-

LTRO).

Exhibit 1: Portuguese banks – total funding via ECB (EUR bn)

Source: Bank of Portugal & CaixaBI Equity Research

From our point of view, the evolution of this variable is a strong signal of the

positive developments in the funding position of Portuguese banks (the

consolidated Loans-to-Deposits ratio of the banking system is now close to

100% vs. 128% in December 2012 and 158% in December 2010).

Conclusion & Action: Our central scenario is that banks will continue to

present a gradual reduction in the use of these funds. In any case, we expect

those banks to continue to take benefits from the (very) low cost of the current

T-LTRO funding operations made available by ECB. Moreover, the

deleveraging process also continued in the banking system (reduction of

outstanding loans of 2.5% YoY in the corporate segment and 2.2% in the

households segment by the end of August 2016) with a resilient evolution of

deposits from households (+2.4% YoY by the end of September 2016).

---------- Stoxx Banks,

DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector

Analyst(s):

André Rodrigues Caixa-Banco de Investimento

[email protected]

+351 21 389 68 39

23.5

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Feb-12 Oct-12 Jun-13 Feb-14 Oct-14 Jun-15 Feb-16 Oct-16

of 50


Portuguese Banks II

Analyser

BANKS

Portugal: Use of ECB funds stable in October 2016 (EUR 23.5bn)

Bank of Portugal statistical data - September 2016

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

out 15 nov 15 dez 15 jan 16 fev 16 mar 16 abr 16 mai 16 jun 16 jul 16 ago 16 set 16 out 16 nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

The facts: Bank of Portugal published its monthly statistical data with the

evolution of credit and deposits (latest figures refer to the end of September

2016).

Our analysis: September figures presented 11bps improvement in the total

NPL ratio to 9.05% from 9.16% in August 2016. In any case, and on a yearly

basis, this data is equivalent to 21bps deterioration from the 9.26% NPL ratio

reported by the end of September 2015. We highlight that this monthly evolution

is contrary to the general trend observed in the last months (as it was visible an

asset quality deterioration throughout 2016) and should likely be related to some

seasonal (end of period) adjustments.

In terms of credit segments, these monthly figures reflected a 17bps YoY

improvement in the private segment NPL ratio to 4.25% from 4.42% in

September 2015 and a 2bps deterioration in the corporate segment to 16.27%

(in spite of the 21bps monthly improvement from the 16.48% ratio disclosed in

August).

On the other hand, the stock of deposits maintained a positive YoY evolution

(+3.5% YoY), with an increase of 2.4% YoY in the case of deposits from

households and 8.5% YoY in the corporate segment. Interest rates on new

deposits from households drop by 3bp MoM to 0.35%, being 21bps below the

0.56% disclosed by the end of September 2015.

Exhibit 1: Portuguese Banks – Credit and Deposits data, September 2016

Source: BoP & CaixaBI Research. Data as EUR thousands and excludes securitised

loans. YoY variations adjusted for write-offs and reclassifications.

For more details see our flash note: “Bank of Portugal statistical data -

September 2016”, published yesterday after the market close.

---------- Stoxx Banks,

DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector

Analyst(s):

André Rodrigues Caixa-Banco de Investimento

[email protected]

+351 21 389 68 39

Sep-16 Sep-15 D YoY Aug-16 D MoM

A. Loans

Private individuals (1. + 2- + 3.) 117,950 121,166 -2.20% 118,142 -0.16%

Non-performing loans - private 5,012 5,358 -6.46% 5,070 -1.14%

As a % of loans 4.25% 4.42% -0.17 pp 4.29% -0.042 pp

1. Consumption 12,986 11,946 10.70% 12,877 0.85%

Non-performing loans - Consumption 968 1,262 -23.30% 955 1.36%

As a % of loans 7.45% 10.56% -3.11 pp 7.42% 0.04 pp

2. Housing 95,792 99,571 -3.70% 95,999 -0.22%

Non-performing loans - Housing 2,606 2,557 1.92% 2,608 -0.08%

As a % of loans 2.72% 2.57% 0.15 pp 2.72% 0 pp

3. Other purposes 9,172 9,649 -3.20% 9,266 -1.01%

Non-performing loans - Other 1,438 1,539 -6.56% 1,507 -4.58%

As a % of loans 15.68% 15.95% -0.27 pp 16.26% -0.59 pp

Corporate 78,478 83,720 -2.50% 78,636 -0.20%

Non-performing loans - Corporate 12,772 13,611 -6.16% 12,960 -1.45%

As a % of loans 16.27% 16.26% 0.02 pp 16.48% -0.21 pp

Total Loans (Private + Corporate) 196,428 204,886 -2.32% 196,778 -0.18%

Non-performing loans 17,784 18,969 -6.25% 18,030 -1.36%

As a % of loans 9.05% 9.26% -0.205 pp 9.16% -0.109 pp

B. Deposits

Deposits - Private individuals 140,199 136,959 2.37% 140,691 -0.35%

Deposits - Corporate 33,489 30,854 8.54% 33,334 0.46%

Total Deposits 173,688 167,813 3.50% 174,025 -0.19%

of 50


Banca Carige

Italy/Banks Analyser

BANKS

Banca Carige (Neutral) Bank of Portugal statistical data - September 2016

Q3 16 results

The facts: Banca Carige published and presented Q3 16 results overnight.

Our analysis: Banca Carige closed Q3 16 with a net loss of EUR -39m,

substantially in line with our EUR -37m forecast.

(EUR m) Q3 16A Q3 16E Differ. Q3 15A Y/Y Q2 16A Q/Q

Revenues 159 154 3.2% 166 -4.2% 181 -12.2%

Operating

costs -151 -139 8.6% -143 5.6% -139 8.6%

GOP 8 15 -46.7% 23 -65.2% 42 -81.0%

Loan

provisions -73 -73 0.0% -65 12.3% -252 -71.0%

Net Profit -39 -37 5.4% -17 nm -165 nm

At the operating level, the performance was weaker than expected due to higher

expenses, with a gross profit (GOP) of just EUR 8m vs. our 15m estimate and a

C/I ratio of 95%. Total revenues decreased 4.5% Y/Y to EUR 158.5m but were

3% better than expected due to a trading income up 26% Y/Y to EUR 17m vs. our

8m forecast, while the NII was down 5% Y/Y to EUR 71.5m vs. our flattish

estimate and net commissions declined 10.5% Y/Y to EUR 59m or 6% worse than

anticipated. Operating costs increased 5.6% Y/Y to EUR 151m or 8.5% worse

than expected, weighted by EUR 15.5m systemic/one-off costs.

Loan impairments increased 12% Y/Y to EUR 73m and were bang in line, with a

still high cost of credit risk of ca. 150bps as the coverage of impaired loans further

increased 30bps Q/Q to 45.9%.

During the presentation, the CEO pointed out that 12.3% CET1 ratio benefitted in

9M of 55bps transitional adj. on the result for the period, due to be reabsorbed in

Q4; net of it, the ratio would be 11.7%, a touch higher than 11.25% SREP

requirement referred to last year. Discussions are ongoing with the ECB following

the recent Draft Decisions, but he stressed NPL requests for 2017 are in line with

the bank’s business plan targets, while 2018-19 still have to be confirmed. The

CEO sees some flexibility in capital mgmt. given new SREP floor and guidance.

Top mgmt stressing initiatives for NPL securitization are ongoing and should be

finalized in Q1 17 for around EUR 1bn, while overall funding is accelerating at

better conditions and should be beneficial on NII starting from Q4.

Conclusion & Action: No major surprises in this set of numbers. We reiterate

Neutral with EUR 0.3 TP.

Analyst(s):

Luigi Tramontana, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Neutral

0.31

closing price as of 08/11/2016

0.30

Target Price unchanged

Recommendation unchanged

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CRGI.MI/CRG IM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 257

Current N° of shares (m) 830

Free float 74%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 10,316

Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 956

Price high 12 mth (EUR) 1.65

Price low 12 mth (EUR) 0.28

Abs. perf. 1 mth 0.55%

Abs. perf. 3 mth -0.13%


Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e

Total Revenue (m) 791 671 695

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 71 88 135

Operating profit (OP) -215 -412 -57

Earnings Before Tax (m) -258 -517 -147

Net Profit (adj.) (m) -173 -299 -56

Shareholders Equity (m) 2,544 2,170 2,023

Tangible BV (m) 2,467 2,112 1,966

RWA (m) 19,978 18,385 18,299

ROTE -8.3% -13.1% -2.8%

Total Capital Ratio (B3) 14.9% 14.2% 13.5%

Cost/Income 89.8% 83.8% 78.3%

NPL ratio (gross) 14.3% 11.2% 10.7%

P/PPP 14.8 2.9 1.9

P/E (adj.) nm nm nm

P/BV 0.4 0.1 0.1

P/TBV 0.4 0.1 0.1

Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

PPPPS 0.09 0.11 0.16

EPS (adj.) -0.21 -0.36 -0.07

BVPS 3.06 2.61 2.44

TBVPS 2.97 2.54 2.37

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

ott 15 nov 15 dic 15 gen 16 feb 16 mar 16 apr 16 mag 16 giu 16 lug 16 ago 16 set 16 ott 16 nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

BANCA CARIGE Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Malacalza 17%; BPCE 1.90%; local

Foundations 6%; Volpi 6%;

of 50


Creval


BANKS

Creval (Neutral) Q3 16 results

Q3 16 results

The facts: Creval published overnight the Q3 16 results. A conference call

presentation is scheduled today at 10.00am CET.

Our analysis: As we anticipated, Creval reported a very negative quarter, ending

with a net loss of EUR -155m vs. our -125m forecast, due to the first step to

increase the NPL coverage ratios. Indeed, the coverage has been increased

110bps Q/Q to 53.9% on the bad loans and 460bps to 28% on UTP loans,

leading to an overall 40.3% coverage on all impaired loans vs. 37.8% in Q2 16.

The loan impairments to increase this coverage was EUR 237m vs. 217m we

anticipated, with a cost of credit risk of 286bps in 9M 16.

Following the quarterly loss, the CET1 ratio decreased 60bps Q/Q to 12.4%.

(EUR m) Q3 16A Q3 16E Differ. Q3 15A Y/Y Q2 16A Q/Q

Revenues 163 156 4.5% 203 -19.7% 209 -22.0%

Operating costs -123 -123 0.0% -123 0.0% -130 -5.4%

GOP 40 33 21.2% 80 -50.0% 79 -49.4%

Loan provisions -237 -217 9.2% -67 nm -103 nm

Net Profit -155 -125 24.0% 12 nm 14 nm

At the operating level, total revenues decreased 20% Y/Y to EUR 163m vs. our

163m estimate, with the NII down almost 9% Y/Y to EUR 105m as expected and

net commissions flat Y/Y at EUR 69m, while the financial income was negative for

EUR -15m vs. our -20m forecast and was impacted by a one-off loss on the

disposal of a gross NPL secured portfolio of EUR 106m to Credito Fondiario.

Operating costs were flat Y/Y and bang in line at EUR 123m, leading to a gross

operating profit (GOP) of EUR 40m, halved Y/Y with a C/I ratio of 75.5%.

Conclusion & Action: Creval will communicate today the 2017-18 Action plan in

a separate notice. Neutral reiterated.

Analyst(s):

Luigi Tramontana, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Neutral

0.38


0.45



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PCVI.MI/CVAL IM


Current N° of shares (m) 1,109

Free float 100%


Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1,428









Operating profit (OP) -156 -352 86

Earnings Before Tax (m) 24 -426 86

Net Profit (adj.) (m) -160 -292 52


Tangible BV (m) 2,078 1,770 1,821

RWA (m) 15,479 16,936 17,244

ROTE -8.1% -15.2% 2.9%


Cost/Income 64.4% 67.6% 66.3%

NPL ratio (gross) 13.1% 12.3% 12.7%

P/PPP 4.2 1.7 1.6

P/E (adj.) nm nm 8.1

P/BV 0.6 0.2 0.2

P/TBV 0.6 0.2 0.2


PPPPS 0.26 0.22 0.23

EPS (adj.) -0.14 -0.26 0.05

BVPS 1.97 1.69 1.74

TBVPS 1.87 1.60 1.64

DPS 0.03 0.00 0.01

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

CREVAL Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders:

of 50


Deutsche Pfandbriefbank

Germany/Banks Analyser

BANKS

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (Buy) Q3 16 results

Preview Q3 results (14.11.)

The facts: As we expect PBB to book the proceeds from the Heta write-down in

Q3 we forecast a record result for Q3. Even if assuming that PBB will use part of

the proceeds to book some provisions (as a buffer) we expect pretax profit to

come in at EUR 141m (+166% yoy). The adjusted pretax profit should amount to

EUR 41m which would be on the Q2 ’16 level (EUR 42m). CT1 ratio should have

increased by 10 bp’s qoq to 18.5% (excluding the 9M profit). Hopefully, the bank

will give some guidance on 2017 and say something about this year’s dividend

policy, i.e. how much of the positive one-off will be paid out as dividend.

Our analysis: We expect PAT to book provisions of EUR 32m as a buffer for

future potential risks out of the EUR 132m Heta proceeds. By doing this the bank

has some buffer going forward and does not have to pay a too high extra

dividend. Underlying pretax profit should have been more or less stable qoq at

EUR 41m. While both net interest and commission income should have been

slightly up by EUR 1m qoq, this should have been offset by slightly higher costs

and higher risk provisions of EUR 3m (on a net level we forecast PBB to have

released risk provisions of EUR 6m in Q3 as part of the Heta one-off should have

been booked under risk provisions).

Conclusion & Action: Due to a positive one-off we expect PBB to post a

quarterly record result next Monday; the underlying profit development should

have been stable qoq. Key question will be how much of the positive one-off will

be paid out as an extra dividend (equinet estimate: at least EUR 0.20).

While pbb is clearly not a growth story, we like the shares as they offer a high

normal dividend yield of 6% for 2016 which should be even at 8% if including the

positive one-off related to Heta. Additionally PBB is strongly capitalized (CT1 B3

FL: 18%) and has a high asset quality (NPL ratio of 1%) while trading at 2017e

P/B of 0.4x. While margins in real estate financing, pbb’s main earnings

contributor, should remain under pressure in 2016, earnings should benefit from a

capital shift from low margin (non-core) assets to higher margin (core) assets in

the medium term.

Analyst(s):

Philipp Häßler, CFA, equinet Bank

[email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

Buy

9.20


12.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PBBG.DE/PBB GR

Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,238


Free float 80%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 316










Operating profit (OP) 215 166 175

Earnings Before Tax (m) 195 186 185

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 230 154 155


Tangible BV (m) 2,731 2,746 2,805

RWA (m) 13,402 13,804 14,218

ROTE 7.4% 5.6% 5.6%


Cost/Income 49.2% 52.5% 50.3%

NPL ratio (gross) 1.3% 1.2% 1.2%

P/PPP 7.0 6.5 5.9

P/E (adj.) 6.5 8.0 8.0

P/BV 0.6 0.5 0.4

P/TBV 0.6 0.5 0.4


PPPPS 1.59 1.42 1.56

EPS (adj.) 1.71 1.15 1.15

BVPS 20.31 20.42 20.86

TBVPS 20.31 20.42 20.86

DPS 0.43 0.57 0.58

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5


vvdsvdvsdy

DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Federal Republic of Germany 20%;

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank - Preview Q3 2016

EUR m Q3 2016e (eq) Q3 2015 yoy Consensus delta

Revenues 185 98 89% na

of which NII 94 95 -1% na

Expenses 50 52 -4% na

CIR 27.0% 53.1% -2603 BP na

Risk provis. -6 -3 na na

EBT 141 53 166% na

Net income 139 53 162% na

Sources: PBB, equinet Research

of 50


Natixis

France/Banks Analyser

BANKS

Natixis (Accumulate) Preview Q3 results (14.11.)

A lacklustre quarter

The facts: Q3-2016 in line with expectations. Presentation of a draft

transformation and operating excellence plan aimed at achieving full-year savings

of EUR250m from 2019, after an investment of EUR220m (between 2017 and

2018).

Our analysis: Revenue was down 2% (+7% for core businesses) at EUR1,924m

(vs EUR1,916m for the consensus); expenses totalled EUR1,447m (+4%), vs

EUR1,416m, and EBITDA was down a significant 17% at EUR477m (vs

EUR500m). The cost of risk was down 17% yoy (CoR on core businesses of

30bp, vs 37bp in Q2-2016). Attributable net profit was up 2% at EUR298m (vs

EUR282m), including a capital gain of EUR97m. The savings solutions division

reported revenue down 4%. In asset management (-9%), net outflows were again

recorded in the amount of EUR8bn, mainly on equity funds at Harris. AuM totalled

EUR798bn, vs EUR787bn in Q2-2016, with a market effect offsetting outflows.

Note however that margins firmed to 13bp in Europe (DNCA). Insurance revenue

was up 10%. In P&C, the combined ratio was a very good 92.3% over nine

months. CIB revenues were EUR813m, excluding CVA/DVA (+15%): FICC up

36% (Asia and America) and equities up 14%. The SFS division posted revenue

up 3% thanks to deposits (31%) and factoring (+15%), and will now centralise

payment activities including digital formats on behalf of BPCE. The CT1 was

10.5% (+30bp) with a 2017 SREP of 7.75% (of which 2% of P2R, which seems

high vs peers). ROE was 12.6% for core businesses in 9M. ROTE was 9.9%. The

company has an amount of EUR700m (22 cents per share) for distribution

beyond the minimum payout ratio of 50% (15 cents) in the absence of external

growth.

Conclusion & Action: The company continues to suffer in asset management,

deemed a strength, and will have trouble meeting its ROTE target of 11.5% in

2017. The potential yield remains attractive. TP of EUR5.3 (P/TBV of 1.2x) and

recommendation unchanged.

Analyst(s):

Pierre Chedeville, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 97

Accumulate

4.62


5.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CNAT.PA/KN FP



Free float 30%









Total Revenue (m) 8,704 8,438 8,276

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 2,749 2,389 2,638

Operating profit (OP) 2,457 2,120 2,397

Earnings Before Tax (m) 2,472 2,157 2,432

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 1,233 1,059 1,228


Tangible BV (m) 15,601 14,547 15,183

RWA (m) 113,300 113,300 113,300

ROTE 6.5% 5.7% 6.7%


Cost/Income 68.4% 71.7% 68.1%


P/PPP 5.8 6.0 5.4

P/E (adj.) 13.0 13.4 11.6

P/BV 1.0 0.9 0.9

P/TBV 1.0 1.0 0.9


PPPPS 0.89 0.78 0.86

EPS (adj.) 0.40 0.34 0.40

BVPS 5.31 5.30 5.30

TBVPS 5.07 4.72 4.93

DPS 0.35 0.24 0.27

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


vvdsvdvsdy

NATIXIS Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: BPCE 70%;

of 50


Poste Italiane


BANKS

Poste Italiane (Accumulate) A lacklustre quarter

3Q 2016 preview: insurance ought to lead the performance

The facts: Poste is due to report its 3Q 16 results today during trading hours. A

conference call is going to be held at 18.00 CET.

Our analysis: we summarize our preview in the following table.

3Q16E Y/Y 9M16E Y/Y 3Q15 9M15

-mail and parcel services 850 -5.3% 2,734 -3.6% 898 2,836

-financial services 1,280 -1.1% 4,110 3.4% 1,294 3,974

-insurance services 5,835 2.0% 18,689 10.4% 5,721 16,930

-other services 55 -5.2% 169 -6.6% 58 181

Total revenues 8,020 0.6% 25,702 7.4% 7,971 23,921

Total expenses -7,716 0.5% -24,555 6.8% -7,679 -22,991

-mail and parcel services -55 14.6% 19 -113.9% -48 -137

-financial services 215 -1.8% 700 1.9% 219 687

-insurance services 138 20.0% 408 16.2% 115 351

-other services 6 0.0% 20 -31.0% 6 29

Operating profit 304 4.1% 1,147 23.3% 292 930

Net profit 205 9.8% 770 23.8% 187 622

Source: Company data, Banca Akros estimates

We expect total revenues of c. EUR 8,020bn, +0.6% Y/Y, mainly thanks to the

insurance services, which, despite the strong increase in the first two quarter of

the year, we expect still growing, better than the Italian market as a whole (-11.7%

at the end of September). The financial services business unit (-11% Y/Y) we

expect is still suffering the low interest rates, while in the mail and parcels

business (-5.3% Y/Y), we believe the growth in parcels is likely to be less strong

than previous expected. After costs we estimate slightly higher than last year

(+0.5% Y/Y), the operating profit ought to close around EUR 304m, +4.1% Y/Y,

mainly thanks to the exploit we estimate in the insurance segment (+20% Y/Y)

again. The net profit is seen around EUR 205m, +9.8% Y/Y.

Conclusion & Action: we expect a good set of results, coherent with our current

FY16 estimates. We believe the expected EPS growth (c. +15% in 2016 -2018)

can be bought at a reasonable price (Adj. P/E 2016 and 2017 at c. 10x and 8x

respectively).The insurance and financial services are likely to play a key role in

focusing and diversifying the offer on more profitable and marketable products,

such as asset management services and P&C (Non-Auto). The capillarity of the

distribution network and one of the largest client bases in Italy ought to underpin

the upside in the medium term. However, it takes time to deliver value. Investors

ought to bet on the group’s enormous potential, which could emerge in 3 years at

least, when Poste is likely to end the current restructuring process and take

further steps towards its competitive repositioning. In the meantime, the huge

amount of unrealised capital gains (c. EUR 17bn at group level at the end of

2015) could temporarily cushion the negative impact from the low interest rates.

In the short term, Poste could also consider some acquisitions in the parcel

business and in payment platform operators. The RE assets could represent

further hidden value in the long term. The offer on Pioneer is still pending: if the

price offered is around EUR 4bn, the stock could react negatively in the short

term, although we believe the acquisition could create value in the medium term.

The delivery of the plan and its execution remain the main risks.

Analyst(s):

Enrico Esposti, CIIA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4022

Accumulate

6.03


7.90



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PST.MI/PST IM



Free float 35%









Total Revenue (m) 30,738 32,667 33,304

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 880 910 1,096

Operating profit (OP) 880 910 1,096

Earnings Before Tax (m) 933 933 1,120

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 825 813 958


Tangible BV (m) 9,658 9,785 10,036

RWA (m) 12,613 13,119 13,639

ROTE 8.5% 8.3% 9.5%


Cost/Income 97.1% 97.2% 96.7%


P/PPP 10.5 8.6 7.2

P/E (adj.) 11.2 9.7 8.2

P/BV 1.0 0.8 0.8

P/TBV 1.0 0.8 0.8


PPPPS 0.67 0.70 0.84

EPS (adj.) 0.63 0.62 0.73

BVPS 7.39 7.49 7.68

TBVPS 7.39 7.49 7.68

DPS 0.34 0.35 0.43

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5


vvdsvdvsdy

POSTE ITALIANE FTSE MIB (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Ministry of Economy and Finance 65%;

of 50


Alstom

France/Electronic & Electrical Equipment Analyser

ELECTRONIC & ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT

Alstom (Buy) 3Q 2016 preview: insurance ought to lead the performance

Very good half-year results

The facts: Highly satisfactory commercial and operating performance levels for

H1 2016/17 results with a sharp rise in order intake (+66%) to EUR6.2bn,

revenues posted the same growth rate as that of Q1, i.e. up by +7%, adjusted

EBIT went up by +20% to stand at EUR200m (vs EUR167m in H1 2015/16 and

EUR366mE at end-2015/16), i.e. a margin of 5.6% (vs 5.3% at end-2015/16) and

lastly exceptional generation of high FCF at EUR333m which benefitted from

advances on important orders.

Our analysis: The order book (EUR33.5bn) recorded two major contracts in the

US (Amtrak contract for EUR1.8bn) and the Middle East (RTA contract for

EUR1.3bn). Revenues benefitted from the growth momentum on the signalling

business, the integration of GE’s activities, good contract execution on the

systems activities (+20%) and train deliveries in Europe. This good commercial

performance and growth in the product mix (more systems and signalling vs.

rolling stock) and productivity gain initiatives have underpinned the rise in

profitability. The strong generation of FCF enables Alstom to have a positive net

cash position over the half-year of EUR54m compared with net debt of EUR203m

at end-March 2016.

Conclusion & Action: These half-year results confirm the strong commercial

momentum begun several quarters ago as well as the first results of initiatives in

terms of profitability despite higher investment (R&D + Capex). Of course, the

high level of FCF generation is not sustainable and cannot be extrapolated to the

2016/17 FY but is good news for 2020. Alstom has confirmed its medium-term

forecasts: growth in revenues of 5% per year, an EBIT margin of close to 7% and

a conversion rate of net income into free cash flow of around 100% in 2020.

Analyst(s):

Ari Agopyan, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 63

Buy

23.74


26.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ALSO.PA/ALO FP



Free float 68%









Sales (m) 6,881 7,328 7,585

EBITDA (m) (61) 438 493

EBITDA margin nm 6.0% 6.5%

EBIT (m) (226) 262 311

EBIT margin nm 3.6% 4.1%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 2,996 91 156

ROCE 15.2% 15.4% 16.3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 194 407 372

Net Debt/Equity 0.1 0.1 0.1

Debt/EBITDA -3.2 0.9 0.8

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (0.3) 2.7 4.2

EV/Sales 0.7 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA nm 12.9 11.4

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.5 9.2 8.7

EV/EBIT nm 21.5 18.0

P/E (adj.) 2.3 nm 47.2

P/BV 2.1 2.1 2.0

OpFCF yield -37.2% -2.7% 1.0%

Dividend yield 0.2% 0.5% 0.9%

EPS (adj.) 9.67 0.29 0.50

BVPS 10.59 11.26 11.74

DPS 0.04 0.12 0.21

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34


vvdsvdvsdy

ALSTOM Stoxx Electronic & Electrical Equip. (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Bouygues 29%; Employees 1.50%; CDC

1.10%;

of 50


Banca Generali

Italy/Financial Services Analyser

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Banca Generali (Not rated) Very good half-year results

3Q 16 results better than consensus

The facts: Banca Generali reported its 3Q 16 numbers yesterday during trading

hours. A conference call was held the same day at 15.00 CET.

3Q16 Y/Y A/E 9M16 3Q16E 9M16E 3Q15 9M15

Total Revenues 121 71% 18% 323 103 305 71 367

Ebit 72 140% 23% 184 58 171 30 244

PBT 59 87% 15% 142 52 134 32 201

Net profit 51 97% 19% 119 43 110 26 166

Our analysis: the total banking income achieved EUR 121m, +71% Y/Y (-7% Y/Y

in 2Q 16; -47% Y/Y in 1Q 16), mainly thanks to the increase in management fees

(EUR 125m, +7.1% Y/Y), leaded by asset growth and stable margins during the

year (28 bps in terms of management fees on total average assets), although a

little less than 3Q15 (30bps). The top line results was also boosted by

performance fees (EUR 27m vs EUR 1m in 3Q15) as well as by a resilient NII

(EUR 14.2m vs EUR 15.4m in 3Q15). The operating expenses rose c.19.8% Y/Y,

in accordance with the business development and also due to one-off items.

Anyway, cost income ratio closed around 39.5% vs 56% of last year, also due to

the reduction in the pay-out to the network (50% vs 57%) justified by the change

in the periodicity of the incentive scheme (from 6 months to 12 months). On the

back of this brief consideration, the net profit closed around EUR 51m vs EUR

26m of last year, better than consensus estimates (EUR 43m), the second best

quarter ever and the best one in the last six quarter. October’s net inflows

achieved EUR 400m vs EUR 415m in October 2015, EUR 4.487bn YTD at the

end of October, +31% Y/Y.

Conclusion & Action: The results were better than consensus and the

management team increased the previous guidance 2016 with net inflows seen

around EUR 5bn from EUR 4bn - EUR 4.5bn of the previous one.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4022

Not rated

21.19



Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BGN.MI/BGN IM



Free float 49%








16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30


vvdsvdvsdy

BANCA GENERALI FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Generali 51%;

of 50


FinecoBank

Italy/Financial Services Analyser

FINANCIAL SERVICES

FinecoBank (Buy) 3Q 16 results better than consensus

3Q16 results in line with expectations

The facts: Fineco reported its 3Q16 results yesterday during trading hours.

3Q16 Y/Y A/E 3Q16E 3Q15

NII 63 -1% 4% 60 63

Net commissions 59 -4% 0% 59 62

Total revenues 132 -6% -1% 133 140

Operating expenses -53 -1% 1% -53 -54

Gross operating profit 78 -8% -2% 80 86

PBT 66 -20% 1% 66 83

Net profit adj. 45 -19% 2% 44 55

Our analysis: the net profit closed around EUR 44.6m (-33% q/q, -19% Y/Y), but

the net profit adj. related to the ordinary business amounted to EUR 52m, the

best quarter of the year excluding deposits guarantee scheme contribution and

other non-recurring items. More in detail, NII closed around EUR 63m (+2.2% q/q

and -1% Y/Y), thanks to the increased volumes and lower cost of term deposits,

which partially offset the reduction in interest income linked to the fall in market

rates. Indeed, the average yield for the investment of all deposits (both sight and

term) was 1.29% in 3Q16 (1.35% in 9M16; 1.51% in 9M15)) compared to 1.49%

for the same period of 2015 and vs 1.33% in 2Q 16. On the other side, the sight

deposits grew to EUR 16.6bn, +3.5% q/q and 18.3% Y/Y. The net commissions

suffered again the decrease in brokerage business (-17% Y/Y; -13% q/q), due to

the lower market volatility, and the reduction in fees for collection and payment

services, mainly relating to credit and debit card transactions. On the other side,

the fees relative to asset management products and advisory services increased

in 3Q16 by 5% q/q (+5.7% Y/Y), thanks in particular to the continual increase in

“Guided products & services” as a proportion of AuM, which amounted to 54%

compared to 51% in the previous quarter and 43% in the same period of last

year. The operating costs closed around EUR 53m, flat Y/Y, with the cost income

ratio down to 42.2% from 42.6% of last year, and compared to 43% in June 2016.

CET1 achieved 23.1% vs 22.7% in June 2016. Conference call take-aways:

Fineco is working to increase the productivity of its FAs’, through the launch of a

new cyborg advisory project. To reduce the exposure to UCG bonds and preserve

the net interest margin, the group is also going on offering mortgages on first and

second home and it will continue to focus on the development of personal loans.

The leverage ratio (8.23%) is unlikely will be impacted by regulation; anyway

Fineco could manage the situation, also considering the issue of a Tier 1 bond.

Mr Foti, Fineco’s CEO, was confident to be able to manage the pressure on NII,

also thanks to the cost of funding near zero.

Conclusion & Action: results were in line with our expectations. We stick to Buy

and we confirm our target price of EUR 5.75. Fineco will be still consolidated by

Unicredit, preserving its strong capital position and its net interest margin. The

development of the financial advisor network and the clear focus on commercial

efforts on the more value added products will drive the strategy in the following

years. Compared to peers, Fineco has a less risky business model with a growth

we deem is more sustainable, due to the lack of non-recurring items such as

performance fees and to the lower margins and more convenient prices, which

can, together with the high quality services, allow stronger potential growth in the

number of clients. The quality of earnings is also better than peers, thanks to the

“cleaner” tax structure.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4022

Buy

5.04


5.75



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FBK.MI/FBK IM



Free float 32%











Operating profit (OP) 289 293 297

Earnings Before Tax (m) 289 293 297

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 195 199 202

Shareholders Equity (m) 633 670 707

Tangible BV (m) 543 580 617

RWA (m) 1,828 2,006 2,095

ROTE 32.8% 30.6% 29.3%


Cost/Income 42.7% 42.2% 41.9%

P/PPP 15.7 10.3 10.1

P/E (adj.) 23.9 15.4 15.2

P/BV 7.3 4.6 4.3

P/TBV 8.6 5.3 5.0


PPPPS 0.49 0.49 0.50

EPS (adj.) 0.32 0.33 0.33

BVPS 1.04 1.10 1.16

TBVPS 0.89 0.95 1.01

DPS 0.26 0.26 0.27

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0


vvdsvdvsdy

FINECOBANK FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Unicredit 56%; Threadneedle AM 2%;

of 50


Campari

Italy/Food & Beverage Analyser

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Campari (Accumulate) 3Q16 results in line with expectations

9M sales higher than expected end EBIT in line

The facts: CAMPARI: 9M 16 results

9M 15a 9M 16a % Chg Akros 9M 16e

Sales 1,144.7 1,180.4 +3.1% 1,149.1 +0.4%

EBIT adj 220.7 234.0 +6.0% 233.1 +5.7%

% margin 19.3% 19.8% 20.3%

9M 16 sales were EUR 1,180.4m, with an increase of 3.1% Y/Y. This sales

performance was due to: 1) strong organic growth +5.4%, driven by the

outperformance of Global Priorities (+8.6%) and Regional Priorities (+9.8%) in

the high margin developed markets, such as North America and Western Europe;

2) negative forex effect -3.7%, mainly due the devaluation of ASR (-38.4%) and

BRL (-11.3%); 3) a positive perimeter impact of +1.4% due to the combined effect

of the Grand Marnier acquisition and the termination of some distribution

agreements and the sale of non-core businesses.

9M 16 EBIT grew by 6.0% Y/Y. The growth was especially due to: 1) the

improvement in the gross profit by +37.3% Y/Y (57.4% in 9M 16 vs 55.2% in 9M

15) due to the favourable sales mix by product (driven by Aperol +19.3% and

Campari +8.1%) in the key high-margin markets and despite a strong growth in

low-margin Argentina and Russia, a decline in single-serve drinks in Italy and the

negative performance in the non-core sugar business in Jamaica (around EUR

10m); 2) A&P expenses up by 9.0% owing to an acceleration in the A&P

investments (e.g. campaigns for Campari and Wild Turkey); 3) SG&A expenses

up by 7.2% for strengthening of the group’s distribution structures in new markets,

enhancement of the on-premise capabilities in the US to leverage Grand Marnier

and the premium spirits’ potential in this strategic channel, and South Africa

ahead of subsidiary set up.

9M 16 Pretax profit was EUR 131.5m, down by -26.3% Y/Y, entirely driven by

overall pretax adjustments of EUR 52.2m due to Grand Marnier acquisition costs,

restructuring projects and debt refinancing.

Higher Net Debt due to SPML acquisition: Net debt at EUR 1,358.6m as of 30

September 2016 (vs EUR 825.8m at the end December 2015), including the

effects of the SPML acquisition on 29 June 2016 for a total amount of EUR

682.9m; therefore, Net debt/EBITDA ratio increased at 3.3x as of 30 September

2016 vs 2.2x as of 31 December 2015.

Outlook on FY 16: during yesterday conference call, the management said that

the outlook on the rest of the year remains broadly unchanged: the volatility in

some emerging markets and the uncertainty on the movements of the group’s key

foreign currencies are expected to continue. At the same time, the management

is confident to deliver a further positive performance in profitability driven by the

continuous growth of high margin Global Priorities and the positive performance

of the group’s core strategic markets. Furthermore, the investments to strengthen

the brand building and distribution capabilities, after the acceleration in Q3, will

continue to be sustained for the rest of the year.

Our analysis: based on the good 9M results and on the management’s outlook,

we set FY 16e Net sales at EUR 1,701.3m and FY 16e EBIT at EUR 352.3m

(20.7% on sales).

Conclusion & Action: based on our estimates, we confirm our target price of

EUR 10.0 per share (DCF model – 2.0% perpetual growth rates and WACC of

6.6%). The stock price shows currently a decent potential upside compared to our

target price, so we move our recommendation from Neutral to Accumulate.

Analyst(s):

Paola Saglietti, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

8.96


10.00


from Neutral

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CPRI.MI/CPR IM



Free float 49%









Sales (m) 1,657 1,701 1,850

EBITDA (m) 357 401 445

EBITDA margin 21.6% 23.6% 24.0%

EBIT (m) 310 352 396

EBIT margin 18.7% 20.7% 21.4%

ROCE 7.2% 6.9% 7.5%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 826 1,167 1,013


Debt/EBITDA 2.3 2.9 2.3

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.9 4.5 9.1

EV/Sales 3.3 3.8 3.4

EV/EBITDA 15.5 16.1 14.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 15.5 16.1 14.1

EV/EBIT 17.9 18.3 15.8

P/E (adj.) 24.3 28.8 21.2

P/BV 2.5 2.6 2.3

OpFCF yield 9.0% -1.6% 8.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.33 0.31 0.42

BVPS 3.18 3.47 3.88

DPS 0.05 0.05 0.05

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5


vvdsvdvsdy

CAMPARI Stoxx Food & Beverage (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Alicros SpA 51%;

of 50


Raisio

Q3/2015a

EURm Q3a vs. Cons. OP Cons. Diff. Low High

Sales

Brands 68 #DIV/0! 72 #DIV/0! 95.9

Raisioagro 37 #DIV/0! 32 #DIV/0! 40.3

Others 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0.3

Eliminations -3 #DIV/0! -2 #DIV/0! -2.1

Sales 103 -3% 102 106 -3% 102 118 134

Sales growth -23.5 % -24.0 % -21.5 %

EBIT

Brands 10.5 #DIV/0! 15.8 #DIV/0! 15.8

Raisioagro 2.3 #DIV/0! 1.7 #DIV/0! 1.3

Others 1.1 #DIV/0! -1.0 #DIV/0! -1.2

Eliminations 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0

EBIT 13.9 -13% 16.5 16.0 3% 16.0 16.6 16.0

EBIT excl. NRI 14.0 -13% 16.5 16.0 3% 16.0 16.6 16.0

EBIT margin

Brands 15.4 % 22.1 % #DIV/0! 16.5 %

Raisioagro 6.2 % 5.3 % #DIV/0! 3.3 %

Eliminations 0.0 % 0.0 % #DIV/0! 0.0 %

EBIT margin 13.5 % 16.1 % 15.2 % 11.9 %

EBIT margin excl. NRI 13.6 % 16.1 % 15.2 % 11.9 %

PTP 13.4 -16% 15.8 15.9 -1% 15.0 16.0 15.2

EPS 0.07 -13% 0.08 0.08 0% 0.07 0.08 0.08

EPS excl. NRI 0.07 -13% 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08

DPS

Source : OP and FactSet

Q3/2016e

Raisio

Finland/Food & Beverage Analyser

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Raisio (Buy) 9M sales higher than expected end EBIT in line

Raisio’s Q3 results below forecasts, guidance downgraded as a result of GBP depreciation

The facts: Raisio reported its Q3 results this morning that were weaker than

anticipated as GBP depreciation affected the Brands Division’s earnings more

than expected.

Our analysis: The company downgrades its euro-denominated earnings

guidance for 2016; the company predicts that its EBIT will exceed the 2015 level

with comparable exchange rates but due to uncertainty caused by GBP

depreciation, the reported comparable EBIT is expected to be about EUR 50m.

Previously, the euro-denominated EBIT was also expected to improve. In 2015,

the group’s comparable EBIT was EUR 51.7m and consensus for 2016 has been

EUR 53.5m (OP: EUR 53.6m).

Conclusion & Action: Even though the depreciation that has taken place in

recent weeks is reflected on the guidance downgrade, a negative share price

reaction is expected after the preliminary election result in the US. Despite of the

downside pressure on earnings forecasts, we do not expect a downside pressure

on dividend forecasts for the spring (consensus and OP: 18c).

Analyst(s):

Niclas Catani, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 8780

Buy

3.74


4.60



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg RAIVV.HE/RAIVV FH



Free float 98%









Sales (m) 494 521 435

EBITDA (m) 28 72 45

EBITDA margin 5.7% 13.8% 10.4%

EBIT (m) 7 42 32

EBIT margin 1.4% 8.1% 7.5%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 1 31 19

ROCE 6.8% 10.2% 11.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 40 41 4



Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) high high high

EV/Sales 1.4 1.2 1.3

EV/EBITDA 24.9 8.7 12.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.5 7.7 8.8


P/E (adj.) nm 18.8 30.9

P/BV 1.9 1.7 1.6

OpFCF yield 3.6% 7.7% 4.7%


EPS (adj.) 0.00 0.20 0.12

BVPS 2.23 2.20 2.29

DPS 0.16 0.18 0.19

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00

4.10

4.20

4.30

4.40

4.50

4.60


vvdsvdvsdy

RAISIO Stoxx Food & Beverage (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Keskinäinen Eläkevakuutusyhtiö

Ilmarinen 4%; Maa- ja

metsätaloustuottajain Keskusliitto MTK

r.y. 2%; Central Union of Agricultural

of 50


Yoox Net-A-Porter

Italy/General Retailers Analyser

GENERAL RETAILERS

Yoox Net-A-Porter (Buy) Raisio’s Q3 results below forecasts, guidance downgraded as a result of GBP depreciation

Further top line growth expected in Q3

The facts: YNAP will release 9M 2016 results today after market close. A CC will

follow the release.

Our analysis: YNAP’s top line is expected to increase by 17.2% Y/Y at constant

FX in Q3, thus exceeding the already strong growth recorded in H1 (+15.8%) and

Q2 (+17.0%). Multi Brand Off-Season and Multi Brand In-Season were confirmed

as the top contributor to top line growth as recorded in H1 leading to +14.6% Y/Y

in 9M at Constant FX.

Operating performance would have been even more impressive if YNAP did not

discontinued - as expected - thecorner.com and shoescribe.com in August 2016,

thus making the comparison base more difficult. We believe most of these

portals’ users have already joined the other 4 currently managed by YNAP, but

changes require time to be fully absorbed by a global customer base.

Data in EUR m (Constant FX) Q3 15A Q3 16E % Chg 9M 15A 9M 16E % Chg

Net Revenues 389.9 456.8 17.2% 1,182 1,354 14.6%

In season 200.6 234.9 17.1% 644.0 725.0 12.6%

Off Season 152.4 179.8 18.0% 420.7 498.1 18.4%

Online Flagship 36.9 42.1 14.0% 117.0 130.8 11.8%


Negative FX contribution is expected to impact the top line by c. 5% in the quarter

thus pointing to EUR 434m net revenues in Q3 (+11.2% Y/Y) or EUR 1,331m in

9M 2016 (+12.6% Y/Y).

This negative contribution from FX was mainly caused by the GBP performance

in the quarter (-18% Y/Y, from 0.72 EURGBP to 0.85). We highlight that YNAP’s

top line is significantly exposed to GBP (c. 25% of net revenues, more than the

16% related to the sole UK market), even though well-balanced GBP

denominated revenues and costs should offset the negative effect at EBITDA

level.

Finally, in terms of geographical breakdown, we believe that APAC and North

America would have significantly contributed to the top line growth in Q3,

outpacing the total net revenues growth. Europe, on the other side, should post a

lower performance in the low teens mainly due to EU core countries lower

demand, also related to mild weather conditions.

Conclusion & Action: Q3 results should confirm solid top line growth and the

strong company’s market positioning in a fast growing reference market, even

though the strong GBP devaluation after Brexit should impact top line by c. 5%.

Despite the material impact on net revenues we remind investors that the high

amount of GBP denominated costs inherited from NAP should allow the company

to offset negative contribution to EBITDA.

Analyst(s):

Enrico Filippi, CEFA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4071

Giada Cabrino, CIIA Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Buy

25.33


31.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg YNAP.MI/YNAP IM



Free float 59%









Sales (m) 1,665 1,878 2,294

EBITDA (m) 126 143 186


EBIT (m) 69 48 67

EBIT margin 4.2% 2.6% 2.9%


ROCE 2.3% 1.8% 2.3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (63) (132) (119)

Net Debt/Equity 0.0 -0.1 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA -0.5 -0.9 -0.6

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (157.9) 71.7 478.1

EV/Sales 1.2 1.7 1.4

EV/EBITDA 15.8 22.7 17.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 15.0 21.1 16.4

EV/EBIT 28.7 67.5 49.2


P/BV 2.2 1.6 1.5

OpFCF yield 1.1% -1.3% -1.0%


EPS (adj.) 0.46 0.50 0.61

BVPS 15.65 16.22 16.56

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36


vvdsvdvsdy

YOOX NET-A-PORTER FTSE MIB (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: CFR 25%; Renzo Rosso 6%; Federico

Marchetti 6%; Alabbar enterprises 4%;

of 50


Epigenomics AG

Germany/Healthcare Analyser

HEALTHCARE

Epigenomics AG (Buy) Further top line growth expected in Q3

Q3 2016, guidance range narrowed, capital increase

The facts: On November 9th

, Epigenomics announced its Q3 2016 results. Sales

rose to €0.9m (+83% yoy) in Q3 2016, bringing the 9 months total to €2.4m (also

+83%), with the sharp rise attributable to an increase in product sales in the wake

of the Epi proColon colorectal cancer screening test in the US earlier this year.

Operating losses reduced slightly in Q3 2016, with EBITDA (before charges for

quasi-share programs) of €-2.4m (Q3 2015: €-2.5m), but widened in 9m 2016 (€-

8.2m, vs €--6.9m in 9m 2015). Whilst the losses fell through to the bottom-line,

this was mitigated at the EPS level by a higher number of shares, with Q3 2016

EPS of €-0.11 (vs €-0.14 in Q3 2015) and a 9m 2016 figure of €-0.50 (9m 2015:

€-0.48). Following cash use of €8.8m in 2016, cash and cash equivalents

amounted to €7.3m at the end of September

The guidance range for FY 2016 was narrowed as follows: expected revenues of

between €3.5m and €5m (previously: €3-7m), EBITDA (before charges for quasi

share program) of €-9.5m to €-10.5m (whereas previously, a more negative of

EBITDA of up to €-11.5m had been included in the range).

Including a capital increase announced in the last couple of days, the company

estimates cash reach well into 2017. On November 7, the company announced its

decision to raise €5m in gross proceeds through a private placement of 1,035,196

new shares at a price of €4.83 per share. The shares will mainly be placed with

Chinese investors: UChip Technology Limited, a subsidiary of SummitView

Capital based in Shanghai, which is thus set to become the company’s second

largest shareholder, and to a lesser extent, Epigenomics’ largest shareholder,

Chinese partner BioChain.

With respect to operating developments, Epigenomics has announced that four

out of the six leading US labs offer its colorectal cancer screening blood test. The

company also signed an exclusive distribution agreement in respect of South

East Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore), with additional distribution

agreements planned for Epi proColon in the international space.

Our analysis: We believe that the recently announced planned capital increase

in conjunction with the solid cash position as of Q3 2016 provides Epigenomics

with additional flexibility to invest into the ongoing US Epi proColon product

launch. We expect to have more visibility on the launch trajectory in 2017 and

note bipartisan draft legislation dated late September 2016 on colorectal cancer

screening that supports reimbursement of blood-based colorectal cancer

screening tests (i.e. Epi proColon) by Medicare as a positive factor. We also

interpret BioChain’s participation in the capital increase (following participation in

earlier fund raising efforts) as a positive signal. Any sales in South East Asia

would be incremental to our forecasts.

Conclusion & Action: With the company’s recent announcement of a planned

capital increase and progress on the operational front, including a new distribution

agreement in South East Asia, we believe that many of the key success factors

for Epi proColon have now been put in place. We continue to expect strong

uptake of Epi proColon in the US in 2017, with any sales in SouthEast Asia or

additional international regions outside of the Western hemisphere providing

upside to our forecasts.

Analyst(s):

Marietta Miemietz CFA, equinet Bank

[email protected]

+49-69-58997-439

Buy

5.06


6.70



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ECX.DE/ECX GR



Free float 86%









Sales (m) 2 5 20

EBITDA (m) (9) (10) (6)

EBITDA margin nm nm nm

EBIT (m) (9) (11) (6)

EBIT margin nm nm nm

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (9) (11) (6)

ROCE -861.0% 5970.4% -1358.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (6) (15) (36)

Net Debt/Equity -0.6 -0.8 -0.9


Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 573.1 1,097.0 148.5

EV/Sales 16.1 17.8 3.3

EV/EBITDA nm nm nm

EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm nm nm

EV/EBIT nm nm nm

P/E (adj.) nm nm nm

P/BV 3.8 5.0 2.5

OpFCF yield -21.2% -9.8% -6.3%


EPS (adj.) (0.52) (0.54) (0.29)

BVPS 0.58 1.02 2.02

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


vvdsvdvsdy

EPIGENOMICS AG Stoxx Biotechnology (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: BioChain 9%; Abingworth 5%;

of 50


Prysmian

Italy/Industrial Engineering Analyser

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

Prysmian (Accumulate) Q3 2016, guidance range narrowed, capital increase

Q3 results: in line with expectations

The facts: PRY released bang-in-line Q3 results yesterday during trading hours.

PRY confirmed that it is likely to post a higher-than EUR 700m Adj. EBITDA in

2016, although not at the top of the FY16 guidance of EUR 670/720m.

Our analysis: Here follow Q3 results compared with our estimates.

(EUR m) Q3 16 Q3 15 Δ% Y/Y Q3 16e 9M16 9M 15

Revenues 1,875 1,833 2.3% 1,955 5,660 5,570

Adj. EBITDA 180 159 12.9% 179 527 473

As a % of revenues 9.6% 8.7%

9.2%

8.5%

Adj. Operating Income 137 122 12.3% 134 398 364


6.9% 7.0% 6.5%

Operating Income Adj. -21 -11 90.9% -14 -65 -80

Operating Income 116 111 4.5% 120 333 284


6.1% 5.9% 5.1%

Net Financial charges (21) (24) -12.5% (20) (58) (77)

Profit before taxes 95 87 9.2% 100 275 207

Taxes (21) (26) -19.2% (30) (77) (68)

Tax rate -22.1% -29.9%

-30.4% -28.0%

Net Income/(loss) 73 61 19.7% 70 188 141

- Energy Projects grew organically ~18% Y/Y in Q3; Adj. EBITDA (EUR 61m,

+15% Y/Y) benefitted from project execution and a stronger installation fleet.

- Energy Products fell organically 3.7% Y/Y in Q3; PRY reduced sales in low-

margin countries; Adj. EBITDA (EUR 66m, -1.5% Y/Y at constant perimeter)

remained flat, with a 50 bps improvement Y/Y in terms of margin.

- Oil & Gas fell organically ~25% Y/Y; Adj. EBITDA was EUR 2m (-50% Y/Y).

- Telecom grew organically 13.8% Y/Y; Adj. EBITDA reached EUR 51m

(+46% Y/Y), at 17% or revenues (+430 bps) thanks to YOC and better

efficiency.

The NFP (EUR -1.03bn as at the end of June) improved to EUR 1.02bn, in line

with estimates. The scenario for Energy Projects and Telecom remain positive,

while the outlook for Energy Products is more mixed in our understanding. We

adjusted our estimates to factor in a stronger impact of metal derivatives on

revenues, lower growth for Products, higher margins for TLC and a lower tax rate.

2016 e 2017 e

New Old ∆ New Old ∆

Revenues 7,584 8,189 -7.4% 7,757 8,418 -7.8%

Adj. EBITDA 710 710 0.0% 778 778 0.0%

Adj. EBIT 552 527 4.7% 618 593 4.2%

Adj. Net Profit 330 302 9.1% 375 347 8.0%

NFP (648) (654) 6 (493) (502) 9

Conclusion & Action: Q3 results were in line; the outlook for EP is not brilliant,

but Projects and TLC bode well. Rating and target confirmed.

Analyst(s):

Gabriele Gambarova, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 43 444 289

Accumulate

22.17


24.50



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PRY.MI/PRY IM



Free float 85%









Sales (m) 7,361 7,584 7,757

EBITDA (m) 622 652 738


EBIT (m) 399 469 553

EBIT margin 5.4% 6.2% 7.1%


ROCE 9.4% 13.2% 14.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 750 648 493




EV/Sales 0.7 0.7 0.7

EV/EBITDA 8.1 8.3 7.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.5 7.6 6.7

EV/EBIT 12.6 11.5 9.5

P/E (adj.) 17.8 14.4 12.7

P/BV 3.4 3.3 2.9

OpFCF yield 3.8% 3.7% 6.8%


EPS (adj.) 1.14 1.54 1.74

BVPS 5.96 6.79 7.74

DPS 0.42 0.42 0.56

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24


vvdsvdvsdy

PRYSMIAN Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: CLUBTRE 6%; BLACKROCK 5%; JP

MORGAN 4%;

of 50


Banca Mediolanum

Italy/Insurance Analyser

INSURANCE

Banca Mediolanum (Accumulate) Q3 results: in line with expectations

3Q 16 results slightly higher than expected

The facts: Mediolanum reported 3Q16 results yesterday during trading hours,

followed by a conference call.

EUR m 3Q16 9M16 Y/Y A/E 3Q16E 9M16E

Fees & Commissions 339 922 22% 2% 333 916

Net Life Revenues ex Commission 7 18 21% 78% 4 15

Net financial income 57 164 -6% 5% 55 161

Total Operating Costs -272 -809 4% 0% -271 -808

PBT 153 350 50% 9% 140 337

Net Profit 135 305 60% 11% 121 291

Our analysis: the numbers were slightly higher than our estimates, mainly due to

the revenues side, with management fees and performance fees better than our

expectations around 1.3% and 3.2% respectively. More in detail, the management

fees closed around EUR 218m, +5% Y/Y and compared to EUR 215m we

estimated. The performance fees achieved EUR 75m vs EUR 20m in 3Q15 and

EUR 73m we expected. The net life revenues also achieved EUR 7m vs EUR vs

EUR 6m in 3Q15 but compared to EUR 4m we estimated. The net financial

income was also slightly higher than expected (EUR 57m vs EUR 55m), despite

lower Y/Y (EUR 61m in 3Q15). On the cost side, the quarter’s numbers were

substantially in line with ours. On the back of these considerations, the net profit

closed at EUR 135m, +60% Y/Y, due also to the lower performance fees in 3Q15.

The interim DPS was set at EUR 0.16 (payable on 23rd

November; ex-dividend

date on 21st November), in line both with our expectation and with last year. The

net inflows in October amounted to c. EUR 321m (EUR 338m ours estimates)

bringing the total year-to-date to EUR 4.2bn, +30% Y/Y.

Outlook. Overall the 2016 outlook was confirmed: NII ought to be lower by c.

10% Y/Y, due to the low interest rates; G&A costs are likely to be higher than last

year; the net inflows, which ought to be strong also in November, are likely to be

around EUR 5bn; DPS confirmed at EUR 0.30 for the time being; CET1 target at

20%, with the prospect to increase the pay-out if the CET1 is around 21% (CET1

c. 20.4% at the end of September). The performance fees matter was still

important during the conference call: Mr Doris confirmed that Banca Mediolanum

is going to reconsider its performance fees scheme, also on the benchmark side;

the bank’s target will be to offset any possible negative impact through the

introduction of other sources of recurring revenues (such as P&C insurance and

lending) relying on the current customer base, with the final aim to reduce

revenues’ volatility.

Conclusion & Action: after the results, we updated our estimates, increasing our

EPS Adj. around 14% and 4% for 2016 and 2017 respectively. Anyway, we

confirm our target price of EUR 7.2 and we stick to accumulate. Banca

Mediolanum has one of the best business-model to face the challenging context

of the banking sector. Some positive surprises could arise from the increase in

the number of clients in the medium term, which are likely to switch from AuA to

the more profitable AuM. The strategic desire to play a key role in the new mobile

and internet banking sector could also make the difference in the long run.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4022

Accumulate

6.27


7.20



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BMED.MI/BMED IM



Free float 30%









Life Gross premiums (m) 2,283 2,246 2,143

Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 0 0 0

Total Net Revenues (m) 3,939 3,753 3,689

EBIT (m) 561 434 413

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 470 356 336


ANAV (m) 1,876 2,012 2,123

ROE (adj.) (%) 25.5 17.6 15.6

Combined ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Solvency Ratio 128.0% 127.9% 134.5%

P/E (adj.) 11.5 13.0 13.7

P/BV 2.6 2.1 2.0

P/ANAV 2.9 2.3 2.2

P/EbV 1.6 1.3 1.2


EPS (adj.) 0.64 0.48 0.46

BVPS 2.81 3.00 3.15

ANAVPS 2.55 2.73 2.89

EbVPS 4.65 4.91 5.13

DPS 0.30 0.30 0.30

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5


vvdsvdvsdy

BANCA MEDIOLANUM Stoxx Insurance (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Doris family 40%; Fininvest 30%;

of 50


Munich Re

Germany/Insurance Analyser

INSURANCE

Munich Re (Neutral) 3Q 16 results slightly higher than expected

Q3 results above our forecast

The facts: Munich Re has just reported Q3 results which were above our forecast

but slightly below consensus on a net profit level. Net profit in Q3 increased by

32% yoy to EUR 684m which was well above our forecast of EUR 400m

(consensus: EUR 753m); main reasons for the better than expected result were a

higher investment income and a better than forecasted non-operating result. Net

investment income increased by 6% yoy to EUR 1,619m which was above our

forecast of EUR 1,480m. C/R in P/C reinsurance stood at 92.0% (equinet:

92.5%). Having achieved a net profit of EUR 2.1bn after 9 months, Munich Re

increases its full-year profit guidance. It now expects to significantly exceed its

original target of a net profit of EUR 2.3bn.

Our analysis:

Conclusion & Action: We stick to our Neutral recommendation with a target

price of EUR 180.00. Mainly due to a higher than forecasted net investment

income Munich Re posted a better than expected Q3 profit and thus increased its

full-year net profit guidance. This is clearly positive news but adequately reflected

in the current share price level, in our view.

Analyst(s):

Philipp Häßler, CFA, equinet Bank

[email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

Neutral

174.80


180.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MUVGn.DE/MUV2 GY



Free float 100%









Life Gross premiums (m) 19,962 20,478 21,011

Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 20,842 21,082 21,325

Total Net Revenues (m) 46,361 46,899 47,516

Life Ins.Tech.Result (m) -4,134 -4,014 -3,869

Non-Life Ins. Tech.Result 1,778 823 1,004

EBIT (m) 4,114 3,673 3,669

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 3,122 2,503 2,479


ANAV (m) 24,515 27,693 28,546

ROE (adj.) (%) 10.3 7.7 7.1

Combined ratio (%) 94.2 98.3 97.6

Solvency Ratio 333.1% 357.4% 356.0%

P/E (adj.) 9.9 11.4 11.3

P/BV 1.0 0.8 0.8

P/ANAV 1.3 1.0 1.0

P/EbV 0.8 0.7 0.7


EPS (adj.) 18.73 15.28 15.41

BVPS 183.97 208.39 219.45

ANAVPS 147.06 169.07 177.53

EbVPS 225.75 248.92 259.89

DPS 8.25 8.25 8.25

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190


vvdsvdvsdy

MUNICH RE Stoxx Insurance (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders:

Munich Re - Preview Q3 2016

EUR m Q3 '16 Q3 16e (eq) 3Q 15 yoy Cons. delta

Net premiums 11,884 11,800 11,956 -1% na na

C/R P/R Reins. 93% 92% 95% -200 BP 92% 0%

C/R P/C Ergo GER 96% 95% 96% 0 BP 98% -3%

C/R P/C Ergo INT 99% 102% 104% -550 BP 100% 2%

Investm. Inc. 1,619 1,480 1,531 6% 1,810 -18%

Operating res. 1,014 700 579 75% 1,115 -37%

Pretax Profit 848 500 424 100% na

Net income 685 400 520 32% 753 -47%

Sources: M unich Re, equinet Research

of 50


Astaldi

Italy/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE

Astaldi (Reduce) Q3 results above our forecast

Decent results expected in Q3

The facts: Astaldi is due to publish its third quarter results today.

Our analysis: we summarize our preview in the following table. We highlight that

the profits arising from associates are no longer accounted above the EBIT but

are included in the EBITDA

Q3 15 Q3 16e Y/Y 9M 15 9M 16e Y/Y

Revenues 675.1 742.0 9.9% 2,066.7 2,142.4 3.7%

Ebitda 63.0 81.0 28.5% 242.8 280.5 15.5%

margin 9.3% 10.9%

11.7% 13.1%

Ebit 44.7 64.6 44.3% 185.0 224.4 21.3%

margin 6.6% 8.7%

9.0% 10.5%

financial charges -34.5 -47.0

-119.6 -142.5

stakes at equity 8.6 0.0

42.2 0.0

PBT 18.8 17.6 -6.7% 107.6 81.8 -24.0%

Taxes -5.2 -4.2

-32.3 -19.6

Net income 13.6 13.3 -1.9% 75.3 44.1 -41.4%

Minorities 0.1 0.3

0.7 -0.4

Net income 13.7 13.0 -4.5% 76.0 44.5 -41.4%


Conclusion & Action: the main issue for Astaldi is still the deleveraging. In this

respect the visibility is very low. Recommendation and target confirmed.

Analyst(s):

Francesco Sala, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Reduce

3.94


3.40



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg AST.MI/AST IM



Free float 48%









Sales (m) 2,855 2,972 3,204

EBITDA (m) 356 350 372

EBITDA margin 12.5% 11.8% 11.6%

EBIT (m) 277 267 288

EBIT margin 9.7% 9.0% 9.0%


ROCE 19.6% 15.3% -29.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 989 1,118 1,156




EV/Sales 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA 4.4 4.3 4.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.4 4.3 4.2

EV/EBIT 5.6 5.7 5.4

P/E (adj.) 6.9 6.1 4.4

P/BV 0.9 0.6 0.5

OpFCF yield -26.9% -40.1% -9.8%


EPS (adj.) 0.81 0.64 0.90

BVPS 6.35 6.73 7.37

DPS 0.20 0.21 0.23

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


vvdsvdvsdy

ASTALDI Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Astaldi family 52%;

of 50


Maire Tecnimont

Italy/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE

Maire Tecnimont (Accumulate) Decent results expected in Q3

Good and better than expected results

The facts: Maire Tecnimont published its third quarter results after market

closing. A conference call is scheduled today at 8am CET.

Our analysis: the company’s results were good and better than expected

Q3 15 Q3 16 Y/Y % Q3 16e 9M 15 9M 16 Y/Y %

Revenues 417.6 586.0 40.3% 562.3 1,117.8 1,702.2 52.3%

EBITDA 28.9 40.0 38.3% 36.8 90.1 112.8 25.2%

margin 6.9% 6.8%

6.5% 8.1% 6.6%

EBIT 21.0 38.3 82.2% 35.1 78.1 108.3 38.7%

margin 5.0% 6.5%

6.2% 7.0% 6.4%

EBT 12.3 33.4 171.4% 29.9 51.3 88.9 73.2%

Taxes -4.7 -12.0

-10.9 -17.8 -32.3

Minorities -0.3 -0.4

0.0 -0.2 -9.1

Net Profit 7.3 20.9 186.7% 19.0 33.3 47.6 42.7%

Net debt down – the net debt came in at EUR 56.2m vs. EUR 96.0m at the end of

June.

Conclusion & Action: the company’s results were sound and better than

expected. Recommendation and target confirmed.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Accumulate

2.28


3.20



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MTCM.MI/MT IM



Free float 35%









Sales (m) 1,670 2,280 2,432

EBITDA (m) 131 150 175


EBIT (m) 115 143 167

EBIT margin 6.9% 6.3% 6.9%


ROCE 35.0% 47.7% 62.5%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 126 53 (39)

Net Debt/Equity 1.0 0.3 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA 1.0 0.4 -0.2


EV/Sales 0.5 0.3 0.3

EV/EBITDA 6.8 5.1 3.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.8 5.1 3.8

EV/EBIT 7.7 5.3 4.0

P/E (adj.) 17.6 10.5 7.7

P/BV 6.2 3.6 2.6

OpFCF yield 38.7% 12.1% 15.0%


EPS (adj.) 0.14 0.22 0.30

BVPS 0.41 0.62 0.87

DPS 0.05 0.05 0.05

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80


vvdsvdvsdy

MAIRE TECNIMONT FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: GLV capital 55%; Ardeco 10%;

of 50


M6-Métropole Télévision

France/Media Analyser

MEDIA

M6-Métropole Télévision (Neutral) Good and better than expected results

Q3 revenues: M6 continues to outperform the TV advertising market

The facts: Publication of Q3 revenues last night. Company contact.

Our analysis: We note in particular: 1) as expected TV advertising slowed to

+0.7% in Q3 (+1.4%e) vs +4.7% in H1, with a difficult month in September for the

entire TV market; 2) a difficult comparison base for Production and Audiovisual

Rights; 3) Diversification: -17% for French football league (Les Girondins) rights

(no Europa League), stabilisation of Ventadis (+0,9%), good performance by M6

Web excluding mobile licence (+12%, dynamic 6play advertising); 4) EBITA (not

detailed) came out at EUR31.1m vs EUR30.5m in Q3-15, the cost of the Euro

was covered by advertising in July.

€m

Q3-16 sales reported

Var. Q3-16e sales

CM-CIC Var.

Q3-16 sales Consensus

Total 262 -1.3% 260 -1.9% 263 TV 173 +1.9% 172 +1.2% 172 Production and Audiovisual rights

20 -8.4% 19 -15.0% 20

Diversification 68 -6.8% 70 -5.1% 70

No guidance for the end of the year: the group anticipates a continuation of

audience trends and that it will continue to outperform a TV advertising market

that offers little visibility. We are lowering our TV advertising growth forecast for

2016E from +3.8% to +3.2%, EBITA almost unchanged at EUR230m.

Conclusion & Action: Publication close to anticipations, confirmation of M6’s

outperformance in relation to the TV advertising market and TF1. We believe that

this relatively strong trend is already incorporated into the price, which is close to

our IV of EUR16.

Analyst(s):

Eric Ravary, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 71

Emmanuel Chevalier CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 72

Neutral

15.55


16.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MMTP.PA/MMT FP



Free float 44%









Sales (m) 1,250 1,264 1,279

EBITDA (m) 323 360 356

EBITDA margin 25.8% 28.5% 27.8%

EBIT (m) 199 230 223

EBIT margin 15.9% 18.2% 17.5%


ROCE 24.9% 25.5% 23.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (129) (116) (105)


Debt/EBITDA -0.4 -0.3 -0.3

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (293.5) (884.8) (787.6)

EV/Sales 1.5 1.5 1.5

EV/EBITDA 5.8 5.1 5.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.8 5.1 5.2

EV/EBIT 9.4 8.1 8.3

P/E (adj.) 17.6 14.5 14.9

P/BV 3.4 3.2 3.1

OpFCF yield 1.5% 4.5% 5.2%


EPS (adj.) 0.90 1.07 1.04

BVPS 4.62 4.85 4.99

DPS 0.85 0.90 1.00

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5


vvdsvdvsdy

M6-METROPOLE TELEVISION Stoxx Media (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: RTL Group 48%; CNP-A.Fr¿re 7%;

Autod¿tention 0.08%;

of 50


Mediaset

Italy/Media Analyser

MEDIA

Mediaset (Accumulate) Q3 revenues: M6 continues to outperform the TV advertising market

9m 2016 Post: mixed picture

The facts: publication of Q3 2016 results. MSE and EIT pre-reported.

Our analysis: Following the decision of Vivendi not to comply with the acquisition

agreement, Mediaset is consolidating Pay-TV in its accounts since Q2. The

company said it sustained a total of EUR 50m one-off costs related to the deal, of

which EUR 8.3m impacted the EBIT, the rest were accounted as financial costs.

The Pay unit posted as expected a very modest growth given the uncertainties in

Q3; however it met our estimates and the consensus. The advertising

performance was slightly negative but still in an acceptable range given the

negative issues of this quarter. A positive surprise at the EBIT line thanks to cost

control. The net income was supported by EUR 24m positive tax item. The net

debt position was in line with estimates at EUR 1.24bn at group level. Mediaset

Espana posted a top-line weak and below estimates (net adv revenues -1.4% Y/Y

vs. TV market +1%), but EBITDA and net profit were above our estimates and the

consensus. EIT pre-reported solid results in line with the previous quarter's trend

and supported by tower acquisition.

Mediaset 9m 2016 results (EUR m)

Q3 15a Q3 16e Q3 16a Y/Y 9M 15a 9M 16a Y/Y

Revenues 693 695 693 0.0% 2,414 2,564 6.2%

Italy 497 503 503 1.2% 1,741 1,853 6.4%

ITA 482 485 486 0.9% 1,696 1,801 6.2%

Adv collection 352 352 349 -0.9% 1,363 1,397 2.6%

Pay 141 145 149 5.9% 406 457 12.7%

EIT 61 63 63 3.8% 180 188 4.4%

Spain 196 192 190 -3.1% 675 712 5.5%

EBIT -54 -80 -65 20% 83 33 -61%

Italy -75 -95 -86 15% -48 -138 190%

ITA -99 -115 -107 8% -102 -199 96%

EIT 19 20 21 9.8% 54 61 12.2%

Spain 20 15 21 0.6% 131 171 29.9%

EBT -66 -90 -75 nm 64 -19 nm

Net Income -60 -120 -89 48% -36 -117 226%

Source: Company data, BANCA AKROS estimates

Outlook. Italy: For Italy, we expect c 2.7% advertising growth for the full year.

Mediaset gave a guidance of 2.8/3.1% based on a TV market growing 2.5% ex-

sports (+4.5% incl. sports). October was positive at +4.1%, implying +2.8% in the

first 10 months. The management indicated no impact from the external

environment in Q4 while signalled "some clouds" on 2017. No guidance on

premium, which will not recover in Q4 the growth pace of the first six months

(+16%). The organic increase (ex-radio, ex-premium) in the cost base is kept at

EUR 10m; Spain. With H1 release, MSE increased the cost base by EUR 10m to

EUR 780m, but the management brought this level back to EUR 770m following

the 9m results. We have cut our estimates on revenues in 2016/17 by 1.7%,

0.4%, but increased the EBITDA by 1.8/2.2% and cut our FCF forecasts due to

worse NWC dynamics. EIT confirmed the targets of EUR 120m EBITDA.

Conclusion & Action: mixed picture, as Q3 adv was light, October was good

and Q4 view encouraging; at the same time the perspectives for next year

become less rosy. Large loss but lower than expected at the EBIT level. We

maintain a positive view assuming that a) Premium will be fixed or sold sooner

or later b) the market is pricing a negative value for this asset. We cut our FV to

EUR4.0 due to the move on MSE (-5% to EUR 13.4m) and other modest

adjustments in Italy. We cut our TP to EUR 3.5 which would include a zero value

for premium.

Analyst(s):

Andrea Devita, CFA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Accumulate

2.42


3.50

4.20from Target Price: EUR


Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MS.MI/MS IM



Free float 63%









Sales (m) 3,525 3,166 3,295

EBITDA (m) 369 551 635

EBITDA margin 10.5% 17.4% 19.3%

EBIT (m) 231 425 510

EBIT margin 6.6% 13.4% 15.5%


ROCE 3.4% 8.1% 9.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 863 822 606




EV/Sales 1.9 1.5 1.4

EV/EBITDA 17.7 8.8 7.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 17.7 8.8 7.3

EV/EBIT 28.2 11.3 9.0

P/E (adj.) nm 35.5 21.4

P/BV 2.0 1.2 1.1

OpFCF yield -21.5% -17.4% -11.7%


EPS (adj.) 0.01 0.07 0.11

BVPS 1.95 2.01 2.14

DPS 0.02 0.02 0.02

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4


vvdsvdvsdy

MEDIASET Stoxx Media (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Silvio Berlusconi 34%; Treasury Shares

4%;

of 50


Mediaset Espana

Spain/Media Analyser

MEDIA

Mediaset Espana (Buy) 9m 2016 Post: mixed picture

Estimates revised: lower revenues, higher profitability

The facts: Following the recent results, we reduce our full year forecasts on

revenues, including margin expansion.

Our analysis: This is due to the opex savings carried out during the year and

despite having acquired the Eurocup’s rights. As a result, our DCF (WACC 8.6%)

points to a FV of EUR13.4/share (-5% vs. EUR14.1/share previous).

TV advertising market, better than expected performance in 4Q’16 Q/Q

(conservative +5% estimates at annual level, Oct/Nov slightly positive). We

expect the situation to improve during the last quarter of the year, based on: 1)

less demanding comparison base Y/Y with +2.8% growths; 2) General Elections

in December 2015 and political doubts and political doubts removed in Spain; 3)

normalised audience with the absence of the Olympic Games and Eurocup (but

with Champions in A3M) in 4Q’16 and finally and most importantly, the

normalised trend in advertising expenditure with the transfer of strong retail

sales (+3% seasonally adjusted) registered in Spain.

Margins not seen since 2008, pre-crisis levels. The ongoing cost savings

(24.7% since 9m’10 proforma) and the revised opex guidance from EUR780m

to EUR770m (despite the Eurocup rights) permits a positive +0.8pp revision of

our estimated operating leverage in 2016e to EBITDA mg 24.6%.

Negative impact from WC expected in annual terms. Although 9m’16 results

included a positive working capital of EUR41.7m, during the conference the

company shed light on the annual trend, indicating it would be negative in 4Q’16

(traditionally negative) as well as for 2016/17 due to the adaptation to the

stricter norm. In this context, our estimates are prudent reflecting a

negative impact of EUR-39m in 2016e.

Conversion of 99.2% FCF in 9m’16. MSE reported a FCF of EUR183m which

implies +21.3% Y/Y. This increase caused a rise in the net cash position above

forecasts (up to EUR118.4m). We expect the company to end 2016 with a net

cash position of EUR141m which reflects its financial strength vs. peers.

Conclusion: We are comfortable with our forecasts as these are conservative in

two areas: +5% advertising market growth in 2016 and WC with a negative EUR-

39m impact. We recommend to Buy considering MSE has a wide margin

expansion space if we have in mind the peak of the cycle (2007/08).

Analyst(s):

Eduardo Garcia Arguelles, GVC Gaesco Beka

[email protected]

+34 914 367 810

Buy

9.67


13.40



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TL5.MC/TL5 SM



Free float 50%









Sales (m) 972 1,009 1,039

EBITDA (m) 223 248 268

EBITDA margin 22.9% 24.6% 25.8%

EBIT (m) 205 230 250

EBIT margin 21.1% 22.8% 24.0%


ROCE 20.2% 18.7% 20.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (198) (141) (150)


Debt/EBITDA -0.9 -0.6 -0.6

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (211.1) (150.4) (108.6)

EV/Sales 3.4 2.9 2.8

EV/EBITDA 14.9 11.9 11.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14.9 11.9 11.0

EV/EBIT 16.2 12.9 11.8

P/E (adj.) 21.0 17.9 15.5

P/BV 3.3 2.7 2.6

OpFCF yield 5.5% 6.1% 7.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.48 0.54 0.62

BVPS 3.06 3.55 3.68

DPS 0.48 0.49 0.56

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5


vvdsvdvsdy

MEDIASET ESPANA IBEX 35 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Mediaset S.p.A. 50%; Treasury Stocks

0.05%;

of 50


Rcs MediaGroup

Italy/Media Analyser

MEDIA

Rcs MediaGroup (Neutral) Estimates revised: lower revenues, higher profitability

Q3 2016 Pre: no big expectations

The facts: Q3 2016 preview (release due today).

Our analysis: we expect a modest top-line decline and broadly stable/slightly up

EBITDA in traditionally light quarter. The change in top management took place in

early August so Mr Cairo could hardly claim the first tangible results in Q3. On the

other hand, the departing CEO left with a faster/higher-than-expected cost cutting

in Q2, basically achieving the full-year savings targets already in H1. The Italian

advertising figures for July/August indicate further deterioration for newspapers (-

7.7% Y/Y vs -5.5% in Q2) and magazines (-6.6% vs. -1.8%) while internet and

radio definitely improved (+1.6% from -4.1% and 3.9% from –0.3% respectively).

In Spain, Infoadex data show a still weak but modestly improving trend in

newspapers (-5.7% Y/Y in Q3 from -6.5% in Q2), positive acceleration in internet

(+21% from +15%) and radio (+7.5% from +1.7%).

We expect net debt to have increased by EUR 10/15m from the June 2016 level,

mainly due to the net working capital dynamics and the cash impact of

restructuring actions.

RCS Media Group 9m 2016 estimates (EUR m)

Q3 2015a Q3 16 Y/Y 9M 2015a 9m 16 Y/Y

Turnover 224 219 -2.2% 743 723 -2.7%

Italian Media 92 84 -9.5% 302 273 -9.5%

Newspapers Spain 47 45 -3.0% 156 150 -3.3%

Sports 74 78 6.0% 245 259 5.6%

EBITDA adjusted 6.8 8.9 31% 17.4 49.1 182%

Margin 3.0% 4.1% 1.0% 2.3% 6.8% 4.4%

Exceptional items -5.7 -2.0 -64.9% -12.9 -8.3 -36%

EBITDA reported 1.1 6.9 527% 4.5 40.8 nm

EBIT -13.5 -6.1 nm -75.4 0.2 nm

Net Income -31.0 -11.6 nm -126 -13.7 nm

Net Debt 500 433 -13.4% 500 433 -13.4%

Source: Company data, Banca Akros estimates (adjusted for Jinny).

Outlook. RCS had said that the total EUR 60m efficiencies originally planned for

2018 should be reached already this year. This achievement should allow the

company to surpass the EBITDA target of EUR 100m in spite of a probably

weaker top-line development.

New management, new targets. The actual economic developments will now be

driven by the new actions to be implemented by the new controlling shareholder

Cairo Communication, which has announced a target of EUR 170m in FY 2018

EBITDA; vs. EUR 140m of the previous plan. Our estimates are still based on an

inertial trend of the past plan, while our target price already considers the

expected value of the recently announced actions by Cairo.

Conclusion & Action: we expect a neutral release, taking into account the

reshuffle of the top management. It is likely that a new plan will be presented with

the publication of full-year results in early 2017.

Analyst(s):

Andrea Devita, CFA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Neutral

0.99


1.05



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg RCSM.MI/RCS IM



Free float 12%









Sales (m) 1,032 1,002 1,006

EBITDA (m) 16 92 107


EBIT (m) (107) 37 55

EBIT margin nm 3.7% 5.5%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (49) 3 16

ROCE -4.0% 4.9% 3.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 487 424 396




EV/Sales 0.8 1.0 0.9

EV/EBITDA 51.9 10.7 8.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 11.8 9.6 8.1



P/BV 3.0 4.5 3.9

OpFCF yield 13.6% -9.6% 5.6%


EPS (adj.) (0.09) 0.01 0.03

BVPS 0.20 0.22 0.25

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10


vvdsvdvsdy

RCS MEDIAGROUP Stoxx Media (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Cairo Communication 60%; IMH 23%;

of 50


Vallourec

France/Oil Services Analyser

OIL SERVICES

Vallourec (Buy) Q3 2016 Pre: no big expectations

Less-strong-than-expected EBITDA loss, transformation plan progress

The facts: For Q3, Vallourec published revenues of EUR693m (-20% y-o-y), an

EBITDA loss of EUR52m (vs EUR-66m in Q3 2015) and a net loss of EUR160m

(EUR-164m in Q3 2015).

Our analysis: These results, which show that market conditions have stopped

deteriorating, are slightly better than our expectations for the year (EBITDA EUR-

271m) and consensus expectations, mainly thanks to more concentrated activity in

Brazil in Q3 to prepare the tie-in between VSB and Vallourec rubis do Brasil which

will take place in Q4. Vallourec will also finalise the acquisition of Tianda Oil Pipe in

China).

Even though still posting a marked fall (-24.6% vs Q3 3015), the contribution of oil

revenues at EUR439m are showing positive signs (9M revenues down by 32%)

and benefitted from a gradual recovery of the drilling activity in North America. In

other regions, Vallourec indicated that the low level of bids for tender, particularly

in the Middle East will result in a still fairly weak level of activity in H1 2017 and

should increase in H2, benefitting from the full effect of transformation plan

measures.

During its conference call, Vallourec gave guidance over its EBITDA forecasts for

the entire year after having reduced the loss in Q3. This should come to under

EUR-230m/EUR-240m in 2016E, whereas we and the consensus were expecting

a lower result (CM-CIC EUR-271m, consensus EUR-244m).

Implementation of the plan continues and after finalisation in Brazil of the VSB

(new Jeceaba facility) and VTB (Belo Horizonte historical facility) merger, which

will enable significant efficiency gains, Vallourec will shortly finalise the 100%

acquisition of Tianda Oil Pipe.

Conclusion & Action: In a still difficult environment over the next few quarters,

signs of improvement in the US and progress made on the transformation plan

are good signs.

Analyst(s):

Jean-Luc Romain, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 66

Buy

4.12


8.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg VLLP.PA/VK FP



Free float 82%









Sales (m) 3,803 3,391 3,756

EBITDA (m) (77) (271) 113

EBITDA margin nm nm 3.0%

EBIT (m) (838) (569) (178)

EBIT margin nm nm nm

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (865) (427) (151)

ROCE -11.9% -8.5% -2.7%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,519 781 842


Debt/EBITDA -19.7 -2.9 7.5

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (0.9) (4.2) 2.4

EV/Sales 0.8 1.5 1.4

EV/EBITDA nm nm 46.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm nm 46.6

EV/EBIT nm nm nm

P/E (adj.) nm nm nm

P/BV 0.2 0.6 0.6

OpFCF yield -41.7% -4.3% -3.4%


EPS (adj.) (6.49) (0.93) (0.33)

BVPS 19.50 6.93 6.59

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.10

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5


vvdsvdvsdy

VALLOUREC CAC Small & Mid 190 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: BPIFrance Participations 5%; CDC Fonds

d'Epargne 2%; Nippon Steel Sumitomo

1.51%; employees 8%; Company held

shares 1.36%;

of 50


Geox

Italy/Personal Goods Analyser

PERSONAL GOODS

Geox (Accumulate) Less-strong-than-expected EBITDA loss, transformation plan progress

9M 16E sales preview

The facts: Geox is due to release its 9M 16E sales today after market closure, a

conference call will follow @ 5:30 pm CET (from Italy: +39 02 805 88 11; UK: +

44 121 281 8003; from the US: +1 718 7058794; from the US -toll-free number- :

+1 855 2656959).

Our analysis: On the back of the brilliant performance of the order backlog, we

expect wholesale sales up double digits in Q3 16E and in 9M 16E. We estimate

flat DOS sales in 9M 16E and revenues from franchising up 2.2% in 9M 16E.

Geox: 9M 16E sales estimates

EUR m Q3 15 Q3 16E % Chg. 9M 15 9M 16E % Chg.

DOS 92.3 90.5 -2.0% 276.6 277.8 0.4%

Franchising 51.2 50.7 -1.0% 121.5 124.2 2.2%

Wholesale 138.4 153.7 11.0% 310.8 343.1 10.4%

Total sales 281.9 294.8 4.6% 708.9 745.1 5.1%

Source: Company data and Banca Akros estimates

Conclusion & Action: we warn investors that, short term, the stock risk profile

has increased: indeed, the management said that profitability expectations for

2016 are challenging and the current year is transitional. We keep our

Accumulate betting on sales surprises in Q3 16E and Q4 16E.

Analyst(s):

Giada Cabrino, CIIA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Accumulate

1.93


3.20



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg GEO.MI/GEO IM



Free float 27%









Sales (m) 824 874 932

EBITDA (m) 43 62 63


EBIT (m) 5 25 25

EBIT margin 0.6% 2.8% 2.7%


ROCE 1.0% 5.3% 4.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 15 (21) (8)

Net Debt/Equity 0.0 -0.1 0.0

Debt/EBITDA 0.3 -0.3 -0.1


EV/Sales 0.9 1.2 0.6

EV/EBITDA 18.1 17.6 8.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 18.1 17.6 8.6



P/BV 1.9 2.9 1.3

OpFCF yield -2.7% 3.9% -2.0%


EPS (adj.) (0.01) 0.04 0.05

BVPS 1.44 1.43 1.48

DPS 0.00 0.06 0.06

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


vvdsvdvsdy

GEOX Stoxx Personal Goods (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Mario Moretti Polegato 71%; FMR LLC

2%;

of 50


Moncler


PERSONAL GOODS

Moncler (Buy) 9M 16E sales preview

9M 16 sales: another good release

The facts: Moncler released its 9M 16 sales yesterday after market closure, a conf. call

followed. Revenues, up 14% (current and constant forex), were in line with our estimates

and consensus.

Our analysis: By area: Europe grew 10% at constant forex in 9M 16 (+10% in Q3 16) with

good performance in the UK (est. 5% of total sales) and Germany in both channels, driven

by tourists and local clientele; France (est. 8% of total sales) and Belgium were still

impacted by lowering tourists flow (although, there were signs of improvement by the local

demand in France). Revenues in Italy decreased in the wholesale, coherently with the

doors selection strategy; despite a reasonable number of wholesalers has been reached,

expectations are for no sales improvements in FY 17E. Asia beat our expectations with

+18% growth at constant forex in 9M 16 and +25% in Q3 16: Mainland China (est. 12% of

total sales) was supported by the local consumption, comps were the best in the region;

Korea ranked second (est. 4% of total sales) in terms of comps. followed by Hong Kong

(est. 5% of total sales); Japan (est. 13% of total sales) suffered from the Yen appreciation.

Moncler didn’t put in place any price adjustments to offset currency movements (neither in

the UK nor in Japan) thus leaving a big price gap between Europe and Japan; however, the

new S/S 17 collection already incorporates price adjustments and the F/W 17 collection will

incorporate price adjustments (in both collections: only for new products and not for carry

over).

Revenues in the Americas grew 18% at constant forex in 9M 16 and 13% in Q3 16, driven

by both channels; Canada, Hawaii and the West Coast outperformed.

The retail channel recorded +20% increase in 9M 16 and +16% in Q3 16, driven by positive

comps and new openings; wholesale grew 5% in 9M 16 and 4% in Q3 16. At the end of

September there were 186 retail stores (+7 in Q3 16) and 40 wholesale stores (+4 in Q3

16).

Moncler 9M 16 sales

EUR m Q3 15 Q3 16 Y/Y Chg. 9M 15 9M 16 Y/Y Chg.

Italy 56.0 55.5 -0.9% 107.4 106.6 -0.7%

% on sales 21.1% 19.0%

19.1% 16.8%

EMEA (ex-Italy) 91.1 97.9 7.5% 190.0 203.8 7.2%

% on sales 34.3% 33.4%

33.8% 32.0%

Americas 50.9 57.2 12.4% 93.6 109.7 17.2%

% on sales 19.2% 19.5%

16.7% 17.2%

Asia and RoW 67.7 82.2 21.4% 170.5 216.2 26.8%

% on sales 25.5% 28.1%

30.4% 34.0%

TOTAL 265.7 292.8 10.2% 561.5 636.3 13.3%

Source: company data

Outlook: FY 16E EUR 1bn revenues is a reasonable target as well as 33.4% FY 16E

EBITDA margin. 12 new store are already secured: they are spread in all the regions (some

in APAC o/w the 1st in Australia; 1 in Mainland China, some in Europe, 2 in North America

o/w 1 in Canada); there will also be some relocations, among them the shop in Milano

Montenapoleone and the one in Hong Kong Caolun. Q4 16E started with October better

than September, a good beginning of November and a better sell-through in the department

stores in the US for the F/W season.

Conclusion & Action: These results testify to still strong brand momentum. The

company’s excellence is one of the main feature our investment case is based on. Buy

confirmed.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Buy

14.86


19.60



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MONC.MI/MONC IM



Free float 59%









Sales (m) 880 977 1,089

EBITDA (m) 300 331 370

EBITDA margin 34.1% 33.9% 34.0%

EBIT (m) 264 287 322

EBIT margin 30.0% 29.4% 29.6%


ROCE 27.7% 29.1% 30.7%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 50 (37) (179)

Net Debt/Equity 0.1 -0.1 -0.2

Debt/EBITDA 0.2 -0.1 -0.5


EV/Sales 3.8 3.8 3.3

EV/EBITDA 11.0 11.2 9.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 11.0 11.2 9.6

EV/EBIT 12.5 13.0 11.1

P/E (adj.) 18.4 19.6 17.4

P/BV 5.9 5.3 4.3

OpFCF yield 3.4% 3.1% 5.1%


EPS (adj.) 0.70 0.76 0.85

BVPS 2.18 2.80 3.49

DPS 0.14 0.17 0.19

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


vvdsvdvsdy

MONCLER FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Remo Ruffini 27%; Eurazeo 10%; T.

Rowe Price Associates Inc. 5%;

of 50


Safilo


PERSONAL GOODS

Safilo (Neutral) 9M 16 sales: another good release

9M 2016 results preview

The facts: Safilo is due to release its 9M 16E results today after market closure,

a conf. call will follow @ 6:30 pm CET (dial in: +39 02 99749000, +44 20

34270503, or +1 646 2543366 - confirmation code: 5733323).

Our analysis: We expect going forward brands to have delivered a positive

performance in Q3 16, in line with Q2 16 (however, we remind readers that Q2

16 benefitted from the partially recovery of the Q1 16 order book, not

accomplished directly in Q1 16 because of a service shortfall).

The small increase in EBITDA in Q3 16E reflects the actions undertaken to

improve operating leverage despite the dilution driven by Gucci (it follows a drop

in Q1 16 and a strong recovery in Q2 16).

Safilo: 9M 16E estimates

EUR m Q3 15 Q3 16E Y/Y 9M 15 9M 16E Y/Y

Total sales 284.8 281.5 -1.1% 959.7 932.6 -2.8%

EBITDA adj. 14.7 14.5 0.7% 77.4 72.8 -6.0%

EBITDA margin adj. 5.2% 5.1%

8.1% 7.8%


Conclusion & Action: We keep our neutral on the stock. Positive licences-

related news flow (=Céline renewal announcement, due to expire at the end of

the year) could be a short term trigger.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Neutral

9.50


8.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SFLG.MI/SFL IM



Free float 49%









Sales (m) 1,279 1,230 1,186

EBITDA (m) 82 85 76


EBIT (m) 1 47 36

EBIT margin 0.1% 3.8% 3.0%


ROCE 0.1% 2.8% -4.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 90 77 26




EV/Sales 0.6 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA 8.9 7.8 8.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.9 7.8 8.2


P/E (adj.) nm 26.6 35.9

P/BV 0.7 0.6 0.6

OpFCF yield -12.0% 6.6% 6.0%


EPS (adj.) (0.25) 0.36 0.26

BVPS 15.95 16.31 17.01

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

6

7

8

9

10

11

12


vvdsvdvsdy

SAFILO Stoxx Personal Goods (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Tabacchi Family 9%; Hal Holding 42%;

of 50


IGD

Italy/Real Estate Analyser

REAL ESTATE

IGD (Buy) 9M 2016 results preview

Good results as expected

The facts: IGD published its third quarter results yesterday before market closing.

The company held a conference call in the afternoon

Our analysis: the company’s results were good and almost in line with our

estimates. The bottom line was slightly worse than expected

Q3 15 Q3 16 Y/Y % Q3 16e 9M 15 9M 16 Y/Y %

Rents 30.4 32.5 7.1% 32.5 90.3 97.5 8.0%

Other rev. 1.9 1.3

1.3 5.4 4.5

Tot Rev. 32.3 33.9 4.8% 33.8 95.6 102.0 6.6%

Op. costs -10.4 -10.3

-10.8 -32.5 -32.0

EBITDA 21.9 23.6 7.5% 23.0 63.2 70.0 10.8%

fair value -1.3 -1.2

0.0 -1.7 -0.8

financial costs -9.7 -10.7

-10.7 -30.0 -30.3

EBT 10.6 11.3 6.3% 12.0 30.2 37.6 24.3%

Net Profit 10.0 10.6 6.2% 11.4 30.4 37.2 22.1%

1.8% like-for-like growth in Italy – the company said that in Italy the like-for-like

growth was 1.8% y/y; particularly Malls were up 2.6% y/y while hypermarkets

were flat

2016 guidance confirmed – the confirmed its guidance of 2016 FFO up 15/16%

y/y

Conclusion & Action: the results were good and in line with our estimates.

Recommendation and target confirmed

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Buy

0.68


1.10



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg IGD.MI/IGD IM



Free float 40%









Gross Rental Income (m) 121 131 139

EBITDA (m) 84 93 101

EBITDA margin 66.8% 68.2% 69.2%

Portfolio Result (m) (0) (2) (3)

Net Financial Result (39) (38) (38)


Funds From Operations 44 55 62

EPS (adj.) 0.09 0.12 0.13

DPS 0.04 0.05 0.06

IFRS NAVPS 1.15 1.18 1.21

EPRA NAVPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Premium/(Discount) (23.0%) (42.4%) (43.9%)

DPS 0.04 0.05 0.06

Earnings adj. yield 13.9% 17.2% 19.2%


EV/EBITDA 20.3 17.2 16.0

P/E (adj.) 9.4 5.8 5.2

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) high high high

Net debt/(cash) (m) 985 1,052 1,057

Net Debt/Total Assets 45.3% 46.2% 45.6%

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00


vvdsvdvsdy

IGD FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Coop Adriatica 42%; Unicoop Tirreno

14%; Soros fund management 5%;

of 50


Atos

France/Software & Computer Services Analyser

SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES

Atos (Buy) Good results as expected

2019 plan: a new model across the entire group

The facts: Atos is looking for organic growth of 2-3% and an operating margin of

10.5-11% by 2019 (vs our 2016 forecast of 9.3%). The transformation of the

model seen in Outsourcing in recent years is set to continue and be extended into

other areas.

Our analysis: Outsourcing: from pure Legacy currently migrating to the Cloud

Canopy, activity stands to benefit from the implementation of the management

platform of various new-generation infrastructures (Legacy/Private-Public Cloud).

The legacy activity will continue to decline, but the mix will allow growth to remain

positive. Automation should reduce its workforce, thereby improving profitability.

Consulting & Systems Integration: a classic ERP integration business, activity is

changing and leveraging the Bull assets. Atos will now focus on the deployment

of SAP HANA, a cloud-hosted ERP platform, allowing new services (data/security

analysis) and requiring significant computing power. This should revitalise its

growth profile (+3-4%) and profitability (+2-2.5pp). Big Data & Cybersecurity:

leveraging Bull technology, Atos is launching Codex, a platform integrating the

foundations needed to offer deals on cybersecurity measurement and analysis of

predictive data to guide business decisions. Worldline: post-IPO objectives

maintained, i.e. organic growth of 5-7% from H1-2017 (VOSA and Radar effect).

Worldline intends to capitalise on a volume effect linked to transaction growth and

recent M&A to achieve an operating margin of c.22% (+350-400bp). Moreover,

Atos expects to maintain its dividend policy (payout of 25-30%) despite acquisitive

momentum that should continue in the image of the recent Anthelio deal.

Conclusion & Action: These announcements are reassuring about the

continuation of the momentum seen in recent quarters. The legacy activity is

declining, but Atos has demonstrated its ability to reposition on disruptive

developments and become a leader (witness the cloud in outsourcing). We are

lifting our BD & CS forecasts to integrate Atos Codex, but remain cautious for now

on Atos’s growth ambitions in C&SI and the profitability of Worldline. We now take

a GARP approach, valuing the share of EUR157 in 2021E, i.e. a present value of

EUR112 (unchanged EV/EBIT multiple of 10x).

Analyst(s):

Kévin Woringer, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 69

Buy

94.70


112.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ATOS.PA/ATO FP



Free float 84%









Sales (m) 10,686 11,731 12,251

EBITDA (m) 911 1,235 1,425


EBIT (m) 589 813 981

EBIT margin 5.5% 6.9% 8.0%


ROCE 12.5% 13.3% 14.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (593) (536) (1,048)


Debt/EBITDA -0.7 -0.4 -0.7


EV/Sales 0.7 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 7.9 7.4 6.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.4 6.5 5.5

EV/EBIT 12.3 11.2 8.8

P/E (adj.) 13.2 12.8 10.9

P/BV 2.1 2.2 2.0

OpFCF yield 5.2% 5.8% 6.9%


EPS (adj.) 5.89 7.42 8.68

BVPS 37.68 42.19 48.02

DPS 1.10 1.40 1.81

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100


vvdsvdvsdy

ATOS Stoxx Software & Computer Services (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Siemens 12%; Board of Directors 0.60%;

Employees 3%; Treasury shares 1.20%;

of 50


Batenburg

Netherlands/Support Services Analyser

SUPPORT SERVICES

Batenburg (Accumulate) 2019 plan: a new model across the entire group

Accumulate

24.65


21.50



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BTBN.AS/BATEN NA



Free float 6%









Sales (m) 133 138 143

EBITDA (m) 5 7 8


EBIT (m) 3 5 6

EBIT margin 2.5% 3.5% 4.1%


ROCE 6.9% 8.6% 10.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (10) (13) (16)


Debt/EBITDA -1.9 -1.9 -2.1

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 194.5 (83.8) (48.1)

EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3

EV/EBITDA 7.0 7.0 5.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.2 7.0 5.7

EV/EBIT 11.1 9.6 7.3

P/E (adj.) 16.5 16.1 13.0

P/BV 1.2 1.5 1.4

OpFCF yield 5.1% 7.6% 8.6%


EPS (adj.) 1.17 1.54 1.90

BVPS 15.44 16.23 17.33

DPS 0.75 0.80 0.95

Positive market trends continued in Q3

The facts: Batenburg published its qualitative Q3 trading update. Positive

revenue trends have continued in the third quarter and both revenues and profits

were higher compared to last year. Batenburg reiterated its full year forecast of

higher operating profit compared to last year.

Our analysis: Management stated that the company experienced a solid third

quarter, which hints on further good growth and margin improvement in the

quarter. Both revenues and profits were indeed higher compared to last year

without giving any more details.

The trend of increasing demand within Industrial Automation has continued into

Q3 with particularly good growth in process automation but horticulture is

stabilising following strong results in 1H. Order book in this division remains well

filled. Within Trade & Assembly the picture remains mixed with good growth in

energy offset by lower revenues in oil services. Order book has remained stable

for this division. Batenburg has shown modest growth in Building-related

Installation where market conditions remained challenging with continued low

price levels. Order book for Q4 is well filled, which suggests that Batenburg might

end up the year with a positive operating result following break-even in the first

half.

For 2016, management reiterated its guidance of a higher operating profit

compared to 2015. Given the improvement in the first half, the higher results in

Q3 and the contribution of Bellt for 2 months (annual revenues of EUR 13m), this

guidance is too conservative. Our estimates currently assume 3.5% revenue

growth and a 70bps improvement in EBIT margin, which are also too

conservative.

Conclusion & Action: Batenburg’s qualitative trading update confirmed the

positive trends in its markets (revenue growth of 12% in 1H). Acquired Bellt will

contribute to results as from November 2016. Company guidance of a higher

operating profit for the full year is too conservative as we think that profits in 2H

will also be clearly higher compared to last year following the doubling in EBIT in

1H. We expect market conditions to further improve and the company’s focus on

the better performing segments industry and infrastructure to gradually pay-off.

The company is valued at an EV/EBITDA 2016 of only 5.5, with a dividend yield

of 3-4%: Accumulate.

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26


vvdsvdvsdy

BATENBURG Amsterdam Small Cap Index (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: Bech NV 77%; Decico 9%; J.L. van den

Heuvel 5%; Oddo Meriten 3%;

Analyst(s):

Johan van den Hooven, NIBC Markets N.V.

[email protected]

+312 0 5508518

of 50


Ericsson

Sweden/Technology Hardware & Equipment Analyser

TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE & EQUIPMENT

Ericsson (Accumulate) Positive market trends continued in Q3

Ericsson organises a Capital Markets Day on Thursday in New York

The facts: Ericsson organises a Capital Markets Day in New York on Thursday,

10 November. The event starts at 4 pm EET and ends at 8 pm EET.

The focus at the CMD will be on the company’s cost savings and indications

about new strategic outlines made by the new CEO, Börje Ekholm. Ericsson aims

to achieve a cost level of SEK 53bn as of H2 in 2017. This means cost savings of

SEK 10bn compared to the level in 2014 when Ericsson initiated the current

efficiency programme.

Our analysis: Ericsson will probably announce the company’s views on the

market growth prospects in 2017. In general, it is expected that the mobile

network market will slightly decline in 2017; for example, Dell'Oro predicts that the

market decline in H1/2017 will be 2–3% whereas the predicted decline for 2016 is

8%. The slower decline in 2017 is justified by the normalisation of the comparison

period. In 2015, the market was still very active and several major network

projects were concluded in the year in question as a result of which the market

decline in 2016 is relatively sharp. The decline in 2017 will be focused on

WCDMA macro radio base stations but there are also expectations for growth

areas in the network market, such as small cell architecture solutions. In our

opinion, LTE network solutions intended for public safety use will also alleviate

the overall decline in the network market along with network building projects

being initiated in India.

Conclusion & Action: Consensus expects Ericsson’s sales to reduce by 3% in

2017 and the profitability excluding NRIs to slightly improve from the forecast of

6.1% for 2016 to 6.8% in 2017. We assume that an assessment of retaining the

sales at the 2016 level would be enough to receive a positive reaction at

Ericsson. We also assume that a sufficiently credible cost savings programme will

satisfy the market. Ericsson’s comments about the market will probably also affect

Nokia’s share price.

Analyst(s):

Hannu Rauhala, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4392

Accumulate

45.03


51.00



Target price: SEK

Share price: SEK

Reuters/Bloomberg ERICb.ST/ERICB SS

Market capitalisation (SEKm) 149,995


Free float 100%



Price high 12 mth (SEK) 86.90

Price low 12 mth (SEK) 43.50




Key financials (SEK) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e

Sales (m) 246,787 216,411 215,737

EBITDA (m) 25,926 11,168 13,877


EBIT (m) 21,805 8,467 11,477

EBIT margin 8.8% 3.9% 5.3%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 13,549 4,399 7,626

ROCE 15.2% 6.7% 9.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (13,987) 361 231

Net Debt/Equity -0.1 0.0 0.0

Debt/EBITDA -0.5 0.0 0.0


EV/Sales 1.0 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 9.1 11.1 8.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.1 11.1 8.9

EV/EBIT 10.8 14.7 10.8

P/E (adj.) 20.1 34.1 19.7

P/BV 1.9 1.2 1.2

OpFCF yield -2.0% 7.1% -20.4%


EPS (adj.) 4.10 1.32 2.29

BVPS 44.33 36.58 36.63

DPS 3.74 2.24 2.47

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90


vvdsvdvsdy

ERICSSON Stoxx Telecom Equipment (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Investor AB 5%; AB Industrivärden 2%;

Handelsbankens Pensionsstiftelse

0.60%;

of 50


Süss MicroTec

Germany/Technology Hardware & Equipment Analyser

TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE & EQUIPMENT

Süss MicroTec (Neutral) Ericsson organises a Capital Markets Day on Thursday in New York

3Q16 Review: Disappointing results – guidance confirmed

The facts: Today Süss MicroTec has published its final results for 3Q 2016. The

company will host the conference call at 9 a.m (dial in: +49 069 222 22 90 43).

Our analysis: Despite our expectations of strong order monetization, group’s

sales have increased only marginally to EUR39.1m (~2.1% yoy) however

declined by more than 5% sequentially. Süss’ profitability has also deteriorated

delivering EBIT margin of only 2.6% compared to 5.7% the year before and

virtually unchanged compared to the last quarter. Such results are significantly

below our estimates and those of a consensus, missing our market estimates by

22% for sales and 78% for EBIT. Earnings figures contain one off effect from

resignation of the CEO in the late August of EU1.8m. Adjusting for those EBIT

margin would have been around 7.2% - which however still below our

expectations.

Süss’ order inflow was also below our expectations of EUR40m generating

around EUR32.2m vs EUR39.2m in the prior quarter and year. Order inflow in

Lithography segment has seen some major deterioration falling by roughly 43%

yoy and 25% qoq with Bonder as well as Photomask Equipment recording

encouraging surge in bookings. The reason for such disappointing order bookings

in Lithography were attributed to the challenging market situation as well as the

lack of new orders for UV projection scanners from the Photonic Systems area.

Outlook 2016/17: The company has reiterated its forecast for FY16 with sales in

the range of EUR 170-180m and EBIT between EUR 9-13m vs. our estimate of

EUR 175m (15.8% yoy) and EBIT EUR 11.1m (margin 6.3%) and FactSet

consensus of EUR 189.1m (27.3% yoy) and EBIT EUR 12.3m (margin 6.5%). For

2017, Süss expects sales of around EUR 160m given slowing down of operating

activity.

For Q4 Süss expects to generate at least EUR50m in new bookings to fulfil its

borderline guidance for new orders. It also needs to generate at least EUR 60m in

sales (~12% yoy) to meet its guidance for FY2016.

Conclusion & Action: The overall performance was very disappointing with the

company didn’t manage to monetize its existing backlog. For the time being we

stick to our Neutral recommendation with the TP EUR 7.00.

Analyst(s):

Victoria Kruchevska (CFA,FRM), equinet Bank

[email protected]

+49 69 5 89 97 416

Neutral

6.00


7.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SMHNn.DE/SMHN GY



Free float 100%









Sales (m) 149 175 160

EBITDA (m) 9 15 11


EBIT (m) 5 11 7

EBIT margin 3.3% 6.3% 4.4%


ROCE 0.3% 7.5% 5.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (40) (40) (48)


Debt/EBITDA -4.4 -2.6 -4.2


EV/Sales 0.8 0.5 0.4

EV/EBITDA 13.5 5.2 6.4

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.5 5.2 6.4

EV/EBIT 24.9 7.2 10.0

P/E (adj.) nm 16.2 25.4

P/BV 1.3 0.9 0.9

OpFCF yield 0.8% -0.1% 6.6%


EPS (adj.) 0.01 0.37 0.24

BVPS 6.21 6.58 6.82

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Okt 15 Nov 15 Dez 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mrz 16 Apr 16 Mai 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Okt 16 Nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

SUESS MICROTEC Tec Dax (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders:

Süss MicroTec - Review Q3 2016

EUR m Q3 2016 Q3 2015 yoy equinet Delta Cons. Delta

Revenues 39.1 38.3 2% 50.0 -22% 50.1 -22%

EBIT 1.0 2.2 -55% 4.6 -78% 4.2 -76%

EBIT Margin 2.6% 5.7% -55% 9.2% -664 BP 8.4% -583 BP

EBT 0.9 2.1 -55% 4.6 -80% 3.4 -72%

EBT Margin 2.4% 5.5% -56% 9.2% -681 BP 6.8% -439 BP

EPS -0.01 0.06 -117% 0.18 -106% 0.16 -106%

Source: Aixtron, Factset, equinet Research Source: Süss, Factset, equinet Research

of 50


Freenet

Germany/Telecommunications Analyser

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Freenet (Buy) 3Q16 Review: Disappointing results – guidance confirmed

Strong results especially in its Media/TV business

The facts: Freenet (FNTN) reported excellent top and bottom line results with

revenues increasing to EUR 867m (equinet: EUR 840m and cons at EUR 843m)

on the back of strong Media Broadcast and mobile service revenue in Q3.

EBITDA rises to EUR 118m (equinet: EUR 110m and cons at EUR 109m) mainly

due to higher operational leverage on the back of higher net adds (+263k yoy and

51k qoq) and stable postpaid ARPU of EUR 21.6 (EUR +0.2 qoq, down -1%).

Increase in customers mainly driven by high margin postpaid (+197k yoy) and no

frills/discount customers (+67k yoy) while prepaid declined significantly.

As stated before, we give FNTN 12 to 18 months for its DVBT2 (Media Broadcast)

and fiber optic infrastructure (Exaring) build-up and show a valid strategy to

penetrate at least 6-7m households (approximately 3m “single source” DVB TV

households and around 3-4m additional “second source” TV HHs) and more than

23m potential fiber network households.

Our analysis: In our latest SOTP calculation, attracting around 500k HHs via new

DVBT2 contracts would result in a share price attribution of EUR 2 per share.

Net income mostly impacted by higher interest expenses due to FNTN's higher

leverage ratios in FY16 and increasing net debt to around EUR 788m (excluding

financial investment in Sunrise Communications, SRCG SW) from EUR 429m last

year.

FCF (EUR 71m) was weaker than expected (equinet: EUR 125m, cons EUR 78m)

as we assumed lower capex, lower financing costs due to realized acquisitions

and lower WC requirements by Media Broadcast

Conclusion & Action: In toto, results confirm our positive stance on FNTN

shares and retain our BUY rating as well as our target price of EUR 36 per share.

FNTN confirms its FY16 guidance of above EUR 400m in EBITDA (plus EUR 10m

from SRCG SW stake), FCF of EUR 300m (plus EUR 30m from Sunrise SRCG

stake) and dividend of EUR 1.60 per share.

Conf call @ 10am CET: dial in +49 30 232 531 508, UK +44 203 367 92 55, US +1 408 916 98 39, http://www.freenet-

group.de/investor/latest-results

Analyst(s):

Cengiz Sen, equinet Bank

[email protected]

+4969 58997 435

Buy

25,47


36,00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FNTGn.DE/FNTN GY

Market capitalisation (EURm) 3.260


Free float 87%


Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 8.836

Price high 12 mth (EUR) 32,45

Price low 12 mth (EUR) 22,35

Abs. perf. 1 mth 0,22%

Abs. perf. 3 mth 2,33%

Abs. perf. 12 mth -18,40%


Sales (m) 3.118 3.351 3.425

EBITDA (m) 370 426 414

EBITDA margin 11,9% 12,7% 12,1%

EBIT (m) 299 325 328

EBIT margin 9,6% 9,7% 9,6%


ROCE 14,5% 12,8% 13,3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 369 720 588

Net Debt/Equity 0,3 0,5 0,4

Debt/EBITDA 1,0 1,7 1,4

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 8,6 47,4 54,8

EV/Sales 1,4 1,2 1,1

EV/EBITDA 12,0 9,5 9,4

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12,0 9,5 9,4

EV/EBIT 14,8 12,4 11,9

P/E (adj.) 18,1 11,8 11,6

P/BV 3,0 2,3 2,2

OpFCF yield 6,5% 8,1% 10,3%

Dividend yield 6,1% 6,3% 6,5%

EPS (adj.) 1,73 2,16 2,19

BVPS 10,35 10,96 11,55

DPS 1,55 1,60 1,65

22

24

26

28

30

32

34


vvdsvdvsdy

FREENET Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Dt. Asset 5%; Allianz GI 5%; Blackrock

Inc., NY 3%;

http://www.freenet-group.de/investor/latest-results

http://www.freenet-group.de/investor/latest-results

of 50


OTE Hellenic Telecom

Greece/Telecommunications Analyser

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

OTE Hellenic Telecom (Buy) Strong results especially in its Media/TV business

Release of 3Q/9M16 results tomorrow before market opening

The facts: OTE will release its 3Q16 results today, before the opening of the

market. We look for revenues of EUR 980m (+0.9% y-o-y), pro-forma EBITDA of

EUR 340m (-2.8% y-o-y) and ‘clean’ net profits of EUR 68m (+0.7% y-o-y). We

note that 3Q16 profitability will be burdened by a EUR 35m cost relating to the

latest voluntary exit scheme at OTE Group. For the 9-month period of 2016, we

forecast revenues of EUR 2,863m (flat y-o-y), pro-forma EBITDA of EUR 960m (-

3.4% y-o-y) and ‘clean’ net profits of EUR 142m (-16% y-o-y).

Our Analysis: Per business unit, OTE-fixed is expected to report revenues of

EUR 390m (+3.5% y-o-y) and pro-forma EBITDA of EUR 164m (+4% y-o-y) in

3Q16 reflecting growing revenues for OTE TV and broadband, as well as cost

cutting efforts. Cosmote Greece’s revenues are seen down by 4% y-o-y at EUR

307m in the quarter, mirroring the combined effect of reduced service revenues

and handset sales, driving EBITDA at EUR 116m (-9% y-o-y). International mobile

revenues are seen up by 5% y-o-y to EUR 138m but EBITDA is expected to drop

6% y-o-y due to the dilutive effect of growing low-margin handset sales and

increased costs in Romania. Finally, we expect another weak quarter for Telekom

Romania (flat revenues, reduced EBITDA are on the back of a tough competitive

environment, while we expect a positive performance for other subsidiaries

(revenues: +4% y-o-y, EBITDA: +11% y-o-y).

3Q / 9M 2016 results: Key P&L estimates

EUR m 9M15a 9M16e IBG % YoY

Revenues 2,866 2,863 -0.1%

EBITDA adj* 995 960 -3.4%

margin 34.7% 33.5%

Net adj** 168 142 -15.5%

Source: The Company, IBG, * Excluding VRS costs, ** Excluding VRS costs and other one-offs

Conclusion & Action: On the whole, we forecast mediocre results for 3Q16

characterized by the positive performance of the Greek-fixed unit (growing

revenues and EBITDA), a soft performance for the Greek mobile business (low-

single digit drop in service revenues, reduced EBITDA) and pressure on the

profitability of the Romanian operations. A conference call will follow tomorrow at

17:00 Athens time (15:00 UK time) today. Dial: Greek participants: 00800 4413

1378, UK participants: 0800 953 0329, US participants: 1866 819 7111.

Analyst(s):

Dimitris Birbos, Investment Bank of Greece

[email protected]

+30 210 81 73 392

Buy

8.03


10.60



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg OTEr.AT/HTO GA



Free float 50%









Sales (m) 3,903 3,880 3,857

EBITDA (m) 1,221 1,241 1,258

EBITDA margin 31.3% 32.0% 32.6%

EBIT (m) 391 408 430

EBIT margin 10.0% 10.5% 11.1%


ROCE 9.3% 9.3% 9.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 860 590 302




EV/Sales 1.5 1.3 1.2

EV/EBITDA 4.8 4.0 3.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.6 4.0 3.8

EV/EBIT 15.0 12.2 10.9

P/E (adj.) 18.8 20.4 18.5

P/BV 2.0 1.7 1.6

OpFCF yield 6.3% 11.4% 12.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.49 0.39 0.43

BVPS 4.60 4.75 4.96

DPS 0.10 0.13 0.15

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0


vvdsvdvsdy

OTE Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Deutsche Telecom 40%; Greek State

10%;

of 50


United Internet

Germany/Telecommunications Analyser

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

United Internet (Buy) Release of 3Q/9M16 results tomorrow before market opening

Hats off to management for fetching a rich valuation

The facts: UTDI and Warburg Pincus (WP) agreed on a EUR 2.55bn enterprise

value deal regarding a 33% stake by WP in a carved out Business Application

unit.

BA generates around EUR 640m in revenue and EUR 200m in EBITDA which

equals around 4x EV/Sales and 12.5x EV/EBITDA.

Looking at the current and past multiples, UTDI in our view fetched a fantastic

price for this low growth business unit (+7% in FY16), while EV/Sales and

EV/EBITDA multiples for US and AUS peers like Endurance, Web.com and

Godaddy are all de-rating (Web.com EV/Sales down from 6x to currently 2.5x,

Endurance 5.5x to 3x and EV/EBITDA from 40x to 15x according to FactSet) and

should further de-rate due to extensive and fierce competition in shared

services/webhosting/cloud/domain segments

This deal gives a good indicator for a planned IPO of that unit at a later stage in

2017/18 and should be a precursor for an alleged bid on Host Europe Group

(HEG) with sales of around EUR 270m in FY15 for HEG on a standalone basis.

Our analysis: We welcome this move by UTDI management to realize a first rich

valuation for their business application business. This valuation has to be seen in

the light of a tough webhosting and overcrowded cloud business in Europe and

the US. This segment is very much price driven and of low growth as overcapacity

was build up in the last years mainly by US competitors like Amazon, Microsoft,

Alphabet and Oracle and some (like HP) even abandoned this segment

completely because of low margin and low growth prospects.

Conclusion & Action: As said before, this deal gives a first indication what PE is

willing to pay and could be applied to HEG group if UTDI should bid for that entity

going forward. Competitors and peers in the US already de-rate coming off from

lofty valuations and should be seen as a clear positive by investors to fetch such

a high multiple for this unit. We believe that the move yesterday was just the

beginning for a re-rating of UTDI shares. We retain our BUY rating and target

price of €55 per share.

Analyst(s):

Cengiz Sen, equinet Bank

[email protected]

+4969 58997 435

Buy

36,81


55,00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg UTDI.DE/UTDI GR

Market capitalisation (EURm) 7.506


Free float 54%


Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 10.411

Price high 12 mth (EUR) 51,35

Price low 12 mth (EUR) 35,48





Sales (m) 3.716 4.019 4.268

EBITDA (m) 771 830 930

EBITDA margin 20,8% 20,7% 21,8%

EBIT (m) 556 638 741

EBIT margin 15,0% 15,9% 17,4%


ROCE 18,2% 24,2% 28,3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1.429 1.055 670

Net Debt/Equity 1,2 0,6 0,3

Debt/EBITDA 1,9 1,3 0,7

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 55,0 30,3 43,2

EV/Sales 2,9 1,8 1,6

EV/EBITDA 14,1 8,9 7,5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14,3 8,9 7,5

EV/EBIT 19,6 11,5 9,4

P/E (adj.) 29,2 15,8 13,7

P/BV 9,1 4,4 3,8

OpFCF yield 4,3% 6,7% 7,7%

Dividend yield 1,9% 2,7% 3,0%

EPS (adj.) 1,74 2,32 2,68

BVPS 5,60 8,37 9,79

DPS 0,70 1,00 1,10

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52


vvdsvdvsdy

UNITED INTERNET Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: R. Dommermuth 40%; Own shares 6%;

of 50


Erg

Italy/Utilities Analyser

UTILITIES

Erg (Accumulate) Hats off to management for fetching a rich valuation

We expect mixed results in Q3 2016

The facts: ERG is unveiling its Q3 16 results today.

Our analysis: based on our estimates, ERG ought to post mixed results in Q3 16:

EUR m 3Q 15A 3Q 16E Y/Y Chg

Revenues 216 236 9.3%

EBITDA 66 81 22.7%

Wind 45 45 0.0%

Hydro 0 20 n.m.

Thermo 27 20 -25.9%

Corporate (6) (4) -33.3%

EBIT 25 17 -32.0%

Net Profit 19 3 -84.2%


It is worth noting that Q3 16 results ought to benefit from the change in the

consolidation perimeter: hydro assets (consolidated since December 2015); wind

assets in France, Germany and Poland.

On the negative side we remind readers that ERG is due to be affected by the

drop in prices in Italy (around -28% in Q3 16 YoY), the change in the green

certificates calculation and the unfavourable wind condition for ERG’s assets.

Net debt. We expect ERG to post a net financial position of about EUR 1.76bn

vs. EUR 1.84bn posted as at the end of H1 16.

Conclusion & Action: we don’t believe Q3 16 results may be considered a

catalyst for the stock, even though they are expected to confirm the company

solidity in a difficult environment. We continue to believe ERG may beat its FY

guidance, which points to EUR 440m in terms of EBITDA. The trigger remains, in

our view, the potential extraordinary dividend arising from the sale of the stake

held in the TotalERG JV (news expected by the end of Q1 17). We reiterate our

positive stance on the stock.

Analyst(s):

Dario Michi, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4237

Accumulate

10.03


11.40



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ERG.MI/ERG IM



Free float 36%









Sales (m) 936 1,044 1,065

EBITDA (m) 308 442 457

EBITDA margin 32.9% 42.3% 42.9%

EBIT (m) 145 184 196

EBIT margin 15.5% 17.6% 18.4%


ROCE 3.1% 4.6% 4.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,448 1,627 1,411




EV/Sales 3.7 3.2 2.8

EV/EBITDA 11.2 7.5 6.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 11.2 7.5 6.5

EV/EBIT 23.9 18.1 15.1

P/E (adj.) nm 9.1 17.5

P/BV 1.2 0.9 0.9

OpFCF yield 4.3% 17.5% 19.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.14 1.10 0.57

BVPS 10.82 10.92 10.99

DPS 1.00 0.50 0.50

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0


vvdsvdvsdy

ERG FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: San Quirico Spa/Polcevera Spa 63%;

Own shares 1.00%; Unicredit 4%;

of 50


Hera

Italy/Utilities Analyser

UTILITIES

Hera (Buy) We expect mixed results in Q3 2016

Efficiencies and M&A ought to sustain 9M 2016 results

The facts: Hera is unveiling its 9M 16 results today.

Our analysis: the company ought to post almost flat results in 9M 2016 YoY:

EUR m 9M 15A 9M 16E Chg

Sales 3,246 3,345 3.1%

EBITDA 640 649 1.4%

Electricity 75 103 37.3%

Gas 204 187 -8.3%

Water Cycle Management 175 174 -0.6%

Waste Management 173 172 -0.6%

Other businesses 13 13 0.0%

EBIT 317 326 2.8%

Pre-tax Profit 218 236 8.3%

Net Profit 125 141 12.8%


Results are due to be affected by the regulatory review in the gas, water and

electricity distribution sectors. We expect the impact in the range of EUR 19m at

an EBITDA level in 9M 16 or around EUR 25m on a yearly basis. This negative is

expected to be offset by the efficiency programme the company is successfully

carrying on and by the M&A deals performed in 2015 (we expect an EBITDA

contribution of roughly EUR 13m in 9M 16).

In 9M 2016, electricity division performance was affected by: lower prices (PUN

ca -27% YoY) and electricity demand (ca -3% YoY). On the positive we mention

the higher volumes sold due to the enlarged customer base and the efficiency

programme the company is successfully carrying on, which more than offset the

negative scenario. Furthermore, still on the positive side, it is worth noting that the

company is due to benefit from a one-off of ca. EUR 14m related to the regulatory

delibera AEEGSI 654/2015, which eliminated the so called “regulatory lag”.

Gas. Hera is expected to post decreasing results mainly as a consequence of the

negative impact of the regulatory review. This ought to be partially offset by cost

cutting and thus higher efficiencies.

In the water division, Hera ought to benefit from the increase in tariffs already

agreed with the reference ATOs and by the efficiency programmes the company

is successfully carrying on, which offset the regulatory review. On the negative

side, the company was hit by the WACC revision (estimated impact around EUR

15m).

Waste. Hera was hit by the lack of landfills availability, which reduced the unitary

margins for the volumes treated (this effect ought to be partially reabsorbed

during the year). Overall, special waste volumes ought to be up by circa 20%

YoY, while we expect urban waste volumes almost flat YoY.

Net profit is due to benefit from slightly lower tax rate (we expect nearly 36% vs.

38% in 9M 15) and from lower financial charges (interest rate dynamic; the cost of

debt was around 3.7%), we estimate roughly EUR 98m vs. 105m in 9M 15.

Net debt ought to be ca. EUR 2.6bn, almost flat vs. the level recorded as at the

end of H1 16 and roughly EUR 2.65bn as at the end of 2015.

Conclusion & Action: the company’s business mix is due to protect from turmoil

related to the economic environment and from negative one-offs (regulatory

review in the distribution and the landfill availability). The sound results expected

and the still present trigger related to the M&A, which we expect to materialise

soon, are strengthening our positive stance on the stock. BUY.

Analyst(s):

Dario Michi, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4237

Buy

2.16


2.80



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg HRA.MI/HER IM



Free float 48%









Sales (m) 4,818 4,838 4,905

EBITDA (m) 884 888 941

EBITDA margin 18.4% 18.4% 19.2%

EBIT (m) 442 462 494

EBIT margin 9.2% 9.6% 10.1%


ROCE 4.9% 5.1% 5.3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 2,652 2,714 2,738




EV/Sales 1.3 1.2 1.2

EV/EBITDA 6.9 6.4 6.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.9 6.4 6.1

EV/EBIT 13.8 12.4 11.6

P/E (adj.) 20.0 16.9 15.4

P/BV 1.5 1.3 1.3

OpFCF yield 3.5% 2.5% 3.7%


EPS (adj.) 0.12 0.13 0.14

BVPS 1.60 1.64 1.69

DPS 0.09 0.09 0.09

Shareholders: Romagna Provinces 21%; Bologna

Provinces 21%; Modena Procinces 14%;

of 50


European Coverage of the Members of ESN

A ero space & D efense M em(*) Bcp CBI Kemira OPG Corbion NIBC

Airbus Group CIC Bnp Paribas CIC Linde EQB Danone CIC

Dassault Aviation CIC Bper BAK Tikkurila OPG Ebro Foods GVC

Latecoere CIC Bpi CBIElectro nic & Electrical

EquipmentM em(*) Enervit BAK

Leonardo BAK Caixabank GVC Alstom CIC Fleury M ichon CIC

Lisi CIC Commerzbank EQB Areva CIC Forfarmers NIBC

M tu EQB Credem BAK Euromicron Ag EQB Heineken NIBC

Ohb Se EQB Credit Agrico le Sa CIC Kontron EQB Hkscan OPG

Safran CIC Creval BAK Legrand CIC La Doria BAK

Thales CIC Deutsche Bank EQB Neways Electronics NIBC Lanson-Bcc CIC

Zodiac Aerospace CIC Deutsche Pfandbriefbank EQB Nexans CIC Laurent Perrier CIC

A irlines M em(*) Eurobank IBG Pkc Group OPG Ldc CIC

Air France Klm CIC Ing Group NIBC Rexel CIC Naturex CIC

Finnair OPG Intesa Sanpaolo BAK Schneider Electric Se CIC Olvi OPG

Lufthansa EQB M ediobanca BAK Vaisala OPG Parmalat BAK

A uto mo biles & P arts M em(*) M erkur Bank EQB Viscom EQB Pernod Ricard CIC

Bittium Corporation OPG National Bank Of Greece IBG F inancial Services M em(*) Raisio OPG

Bmw EQB Natixis CIC Anima BAK Refresco Group NIBC

Brembo BAK Nordea OPG Athex Group IBG Remy Cointreau CIC

Continental EQB Piraeus Bank IBG Azimut BAK Vidrala GVC

Daimler Ag EQB Poste Italiane BAK Banca Generali BAK Vilmorin CIC

Elringklinger EQB Societe Generale CIC Banca Ifis BAK Viscofan GVC

Faurecia CIC Ubi Banca BAK Banca Sistema BAK Vranken Pommery M onopole CIC

Ferrari BAK Unicredit BAK Bb Biotech EQB Wessanen NIBC

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles BAK B asic R eso urces M em(*) Binckbank NIBC F o o d & D rug R etailers M em(*)

Landi Renzo BAK Acerinox GVC Bolsas Y M ercados Espanoles Sa GVC Ahold NIBC

Leoni EQB Altri CBI Capman OPG Carrefour CIC

M ichelin CIC Arcelormittal GVC Christian Dior CIC Casino Guichard-Perrachon CIC

Nokian Tyres OPG Corticeira Amorim CBI Cir BAK Dia GVC

Norma Group EQB Ence GVC Comdirect EQB Jeronimo M artins CBI

Piaggio BAK Europac GVC Corp. Financiera Alba GVC Kesko OPG

Plastic Omnium CIC M etka IBG Deutsche Boerse EQB M arr BAK

Sogefi BAK M etsä Board OPG Deutsche Forfait EQB M etro CIC

Stern Groep NIBC M ytilineos IBG Eq OPG Sligro NIBC

Valeo CIC Outokumpu OPG Euronext CIC Sonae CBI

Volkswagen EQB Semapa CBI Ferratum EQB General Industria ls M em(*)

B anks M em(*) Ssab OPG Finecobank BAK 2G Energy EQB

Aareal Bank EQB Stora Enso OPG Grenke EQB Aalberts NIBC

Abn Amro Group Nv NIBC Surteco EQB Hypoport Ag EQB Accell Group NIBC

Aktia OPG The Navigator Company CBI M lp EQB Ahlstrom OPG

Alpha Bank IBG Tubacex GVC Ovb Holding Ag EQB Arcadis NIBC

Banca Carige BAK Upm-Kymmene OPG Patrizia Ag EQB Aspo OPG

Banca M ps BAK B io techno lo gy M em(*) Rallye CIC Huhtamäki OPG

Banco Popolare BAK 4Sc EQB Unipol Gruppo Finanziario BAK Kendrion NIBC

Banco Popular GVC Cytotools Ag EQB F o o d & B everage M em(*) Nedap NIBC

Banco Sabadell GVC Epigenomics Ag EQB Acomo NIBC Pöyry OPG

Banco Santander GVC Wilex EQB Atria OPG Prelios BAK

Bankia GVC C hemicals M em(*) Bonduelle CIC Rubis CIC

Bankinter GVC Air Liquide CIC Campari BAK Saf-Holland EQB

Bbva GVC Holland Colours NIBC Coca Cola Hbc Ag IBG Serge Ferrari Group CIC

of 50


Siegfried Holding Ag EQB H o useho ld Go o ds M em(*) Axa CIC Thermador Groupe CIC

Tkh Group NIBC Bic CIC Banca M edio lanum BAK Titan Cement IBG

Wendel CIC De Longhi BAK Catto lica Assicurazioni BAK Trevi BAK

General R etailers M em(*) Fila BAK Delta Lloyd NIBC Uponor OPG

Banzai BAK Osram Licht Ag EQB Generali BAK Vicat CIC

Beter Bed Holding NIBC Seb Sa CIC Hannover Re EQB Vinci CIC

Elumeo Se EQB Zumtobel Group Ag EQB M apfre Sa GVC Yit OPG

Fielmann EQB Industria l Engineering M em(*) M unich Re EQB M edia M em(*)

Folli Fo llie Group IBG Accsys Technologies NIBC Nn Group Nv NIBC Ad Pepper EQB

Fourlis Holdings IBG Aixtron EQB Sampo OPG Alma M edia OPG

Groupe Fnac Sa CIC Ansaldo Sts BAK Talanx Group EQB Atresmedia GVC

Inditex GVC Biesse BAK Unipolsai BAK Axel Springer EQB

Jumbo IBG Cargotec Corp OPGM aterials, C o nstruct io n &

InfrastructureM em(*) Brill NIBC

M acintosh NIBC Cnh Industrial BAK Abertis GVC Cofina CBI

Rapala OPG Danieli BAK Acs GVC Cts Eventim EQB

Stockmann OPG Datalogic BAK Aena GVC Editoriale L'Espresso BAK

Yoox Net-A-Porter BAK Deutz Ag EQB Aeroports De Paris CIC Gl Events CIC

H ealthcare M em(*) Dmg M ori Seiki Ag EQB Astaldi BAK Havas CIC

Amplifon BAK Duro Felguera GVC Atlantia BAK Impresa CBI

Bayer EQB Emak BAK Bilfinger Se EQB Ipsos CIC

Biotest EQB Exel Composites OPG Boskalis Westminster NIBC Jcdecaux CIC

Diasorin BAK Gesco EQB Buzzi Unicem BAK Lagardere CIC

Fresenius EQB Ima BAK Caverion OPG M 6-M etropole Television CIC

Fresenius M edical Care EQB Interpump BAK Cramo OPG M ediaset BAK

Gerresheimer Ag EQB Kone OPG Eiffage CIC M ediaset Espana GVC

Korian CIC Konecranes OPG Ellaktor IBG Notorious Pictures BAK

M erck EQB Kuka EQB Eltel OPG Nrj Group CIC

Orio la-Kd OPG M anz Ag EQB Ezentis GVC Publicis CIC

Orion OPG M ax Automation Ag EQB Fcc GVC Rcs M ediagroup BAK

Orpea CIC M etso OPG Ferrovial GVC Relx NIBC

Pihlajalinna OPG Outotec OPG Fraport EQB Rtl Group EQB

Recordati BAK Pfeiffer Vacuum EQB Heidelberg Cement Ag CIC Sanoma OPG

Rhoen-Klinikum EQB Ponsse OPG Heijmans NIBC Solocal Group CIC

H o tels, T ravel & T o urism M em(*) Prima Industrie BAK Hochtief EQB Spir Communication CIC

Accor CIC Prysmian BAK Imerys CIC Syzygy Ag EQB

Autogrill BAK Smt Scharf Ag EQB Italcementi BAK Telegraaf M edia Groep NIBC

Beneteau CIC Technotrans EQB Lafargeholcim CIC Teleperformance CIC

Elior CIC Valmet OPG Lehto OPG Tf1 CIC

Europcar CIC Wärtsilä OPG Lemminkäinen OPG Ubisoft CIC

I Grandi Viaggi BAK Zardoya Otis GVC M aire Tecnimont BAK Vivendi CIC

Iberso l CBI Industria l T ranspo rtat io n M em(*) M ota Engil CBI Wolters Kluwer NIBC

Intralo t IBG Bollore CIC Obrascon Huarte Lain GVC Oil & Gas P ro ducers M em(*)

Kotipizza OPG Caf GVC Ramirent OPG Eni BAK

M elia Hotels International GVC Ctt CBI Royal Bam Group NIBC Galp Energia CBI

Nh Hotel Group GVC Deutsche Post EQB Sacyr GVC Gas Plus BAK

Opap IBG Hhla EQB Saint Gobain CIC Hellenic Petro leum IBG

Snowworld NIBC Logwin EQB Salini Impregilo BAK M aurel Et Prom CIC

Sodexo CIC Insurance M em(*) Sias BAK M otor Oil IBG

Sonae Capital CBI Aegon NIBC Sonae Industria CBI Neste Corporation OPG

Trigano CIC Allianz EQB Srv OPG Petrobras CBI

of 50


Qgep CBI Wcm Ag EQB Enav BAK Falck Renewables BAK

Repsol GVC R enewable Energy M em(*) Fiera M ilano BAK Fortum OPG

Total CIC Daldrup & Soehne EQB Lassila & Tikanoja OPG Gas Natural Fenosa GVC

Oil Services M em(*) Gamesa GVC Openjobmetis BAK Hera BAK

Bourbon CIC So ftware & C o mputer Services M em(*)T echno lo gy H ardware &

EquipmentM em(*)Iberdro la GVC

Cgg CIC Affecto OPG Asm International NIBC Iren BAK

Fugro NIBC Akka Technologies CIC Asml NIBC Public Power Corp IBG

Saipem BAK Alten CIC Besi NIBC Red Electrica De Espana GVC

Sbm Offshore NIBC Altran CIC Elmos Semiconductor EQB Ren CBI

Technip CIC Amadeus GVC Ericsson OPG Snam BAK

Tecnicas Reunidas GVC Assystem CIC Gemalto CIC Terna BAK

Tenaris BAK Atos CIC Gigaset EQB

Vallourec CIC Basware OPG Ingenico CIC

Vopak NIBC Cenit EQB Nokia OPG

P erso nal Go o ds M em(*) Comptel OPG Roodmicrotec NIBC

Adidas EQB Ctac NIBC Slm Solutions EQB

Adler M odemaerkte EQB Digia OPG Stmicroelectronics BAK

Amer Sports OPG Docdata NIBC Suess M icrotec EQB

Basic Net BAK Econocom CIC Teleste OPG

Cie Fin. Richemont CIC Ekinops CIC T eleco mmunicat io ns M em(*)

Geox BAK Esi Group CIC Acotel BAK

Gerry Weber EQB Exprivia BAK Deutsche Telekom EQB

Hermes Intl. CIC F-Secure OPG Drillisch EQB

Hugo Boss EQB Gft Technologies EQB Elisa OPG

Interparfums CIC Ict Group NIBC Euskaltel GVC

Kering CIC Indra Sistemas GVC Freenet EQB

L'Oreal CIC Nemetschek Se EQB Kpn Telecom NIBC

Luxottica BAK Neurones CIC M asmovil GVC

Lvmh CIC Nexus Ag EQB Nos CBI

M arimekko OPG Novabase CBI Oi CBI

M oncler BAK Ordina NIBC Ote IBG

Puma EQB Psi EQB Tele Columbus EQB

Safilo BAK Reply BAK Telecom Italia BAK

Salvatore Ferragamo BAK Rib Software EQB Telefonica GVC

Sarantis IBG Seven Principles Ag EQB Telia OPG

Technogym BAK Software Ag EQB Tiscali BAK

Tod'S BAK Sopra Steria Group CIC United Internet EQB

R eal Estate M em(*) Tie Kinetix NIBC Vodafone BAK

Adler Real Estate EQB Tieto OPG Utilit ies M em(*)

Beni Stabili BAK Tomtom NIBC A2A BAK

Citycon OPG Visiativ CIC Acciona GVC

Deutsche Euroshop EQB Wincor Nixdorf EQB Acea BAK

Grand City Properties EQB Suppo rt Services M em(*) Albioma CIC

Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios GVC Asiakastieto Group OPG Direct Energie CIC

Igd BAK Batenburg NIBC Edp CBI

Lar España GVC Bureau Veritas S.A. CIC Edp Renováveis CBI

Realia GVC Cellnex Telecom GVC Enagas GVC

Sponda OPG Dpa NIBC Endesa GVC

Technopolis OPG Edenred CIC Enel BAK

Vib Vermoegen EQB Ei Towers BAK Eydap IBG

LEGEND: BAK: Banca Akros; CIC: CM CIC Market Solutions; CBI: Caixa-Banca de Investimento; GVC: GVC Gaesco Beksa, SV, SA; EQB: Equinet bank; IBG: Investment Bank of

Greece, NIBC: NIBC Markets N.V: OPG: OP Corporate Bank:; as of 1st September 2016

of 50


List of ESN Analysts (**)

Ari Agopyan CIC +33 1 53 48 80 63 [email protected] Victoria Kruchevska (CFA,FRM) EQB +49 69 5 89 97 416 [email protected]

Artur Amaro CBI +351 213 89 6822 [email protected] Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq CIC +33 1 53 48 80 65 [email protected]

Helena Barbosa CBI +351 21 389 6831 [email protected] Konstantinos Manolopoulos IBG +30 210 817 3388 [email protected]

Javier Bernat GVC +34 91 436 7816 jav [email protected] Dario Michi BAK +39 02 4344 4237 [email protected]

Dimitris Birbos IBG +30 210 81 73 392 [email protected] Marietta Miemietz CFA EQB +49-69-58997-439 [email protected]

Agnès Blazy CIC +33 1 53 48 80 67 [email protected] José Mota Freitas, CFA CBI +351 22 607 09 31 [email protected]

Charles Edouard Boissy CIC +33 01 53 48 80 81 [email protected] Henri Parkkinen OPG +358 10 252 4409 [email protected]

Rafael Bonardell GVC +34 91 436 78 171 [email protected] Victor Peiro Pérez GVC +34 91 436 7812 [email protected]

Louise Boyer CIC +33 1 53 48 80 68 [email protected] Francis Prêtre CIC +33 4 78 92 02 30 [email protected]

Giada Cabrino, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4092 [email protected] Francesco Previtera BAK +39 02 4344 4033 francesco.prev [email protected]

Arnaud Cadart CIC +33 1 53 48 80 86 [email protected] Jari Raisanen OPG +358 10 252 4504 [email protected]

Niclas Catani OPG +358 10 252 8780 [email protected] Hannu Rauhala OPG +358 10 252 4392 [email protected]

Pierre Chedeville CIC +33 1 53 48 80 97 [email protected] Matias Rautionmaa OPG +358 10 252 4408 [email protected]

Emmanuel Chevalier CIC +33 1 53 48 80 72 [email protected] Eric Ravary CIC +33 1 53 48 80 71 [email protected]

David Consalvo CIC +33 1 53 48 80 64 [email protected] Iñigo Recio Pascual GVC +34 91 436 7814 [email protected]

Edwin de Jong NIBC +312 0 5508569 [email protected] Gerard Rijk NIBC + 31 (0)20 550 8572 [email protected]

Martijn den Drijver NIBC +312 0 5508636 [email protected] André Rodrigues CBI +351 21 389 68 39 [email protected]

Christian Devismes CIC +33 1 53 48 80 85 [email protected] Jean-Luc Romain CIC +33 1 53 48 80 66 [email protected]

Andrea Devita, CFA BAK +39 02 4344 4031 [email protected] Jochen Rothenbacher, CEFA EQB +49 69 58997 415 [email protected]

Sebastian Droste EQB +49 69 58 99 74 34 [email protected] Vassilis Roumantzis IBG +30 2108173394 [email protected]

Enrico Esposti, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4022 [email protected] Sonia Ruiz De Garibay GVC +34 91 436 7841 [email protected]

Rafael Fernández de Heredia GVC +34 91 436 78 08 [email protected] Antti Saari OPG +358 10 252 4359 [email protected]

Enrico Filippi, CEFA BAK +39 02 4344 4071 [email protected] Paola Saglietti BAK +39 02 4344 4287 [email protected]

Gabriele Gambarova BAK +39 02 43 444 289 [email protected] Francesco Sala BAK +39 02 4344 4240 [email protected]

Eduardo Garcia Arguelles GVC +34 914 367 810 [email protected] Holger Schmidt, CEFA EQB +49 69 58 99 74 32 [email protected]

Alexandre Gérard CIC +33 1 53 48 80 93 [email protected] Cengiz Sen EQB +4969 58997 435 [email protected]

Philipp Häßler, CFA EQB +49 69 58997 414 [email protected] Pekka Spolander OPG +358 10 252 4351 [email protected]

Simon Heilmann EQB +49 69 58 997 413 [email protected] Kimmo Stenvall OPG +358 10 252 4561 [email protected]

Dr. Knud Hinkel EQB + 49 69 58997 419 [email protected] Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi IBG +30 210 81 73 384 [email protected]

Marcell Houben NIBC +31 20 550 8649 [email protected] Luigi Tramontana BAK +39 02 4344 4239 [email protected]

Carlos Jesus CBI +351 21 389 6812 [email protected] Johan van den Hooven NIBC +312 0 5508518 [email protected]

Mark Josefson EQB +4969-58997-437 [email protected] Kévin Woringer CIC +33 1 53 48 80 69 [email protected]

(**) excluding: strategists, macroeconomists, heads of research not covering specific stocks, credit analysts, technical analysts

of 50


ESN Recommendation System The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of

a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement)

over a 12 month time horizon.

The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy

(B), Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).

Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the

stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.

Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time horizon

Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved

Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of volatility on the markets

ESN Ratings Breakdown

Date and time of production: 9th November 2016 9 :09am CET First date and time of dissemination: 9th November 2016 9 :11am CET

Disclaimer: These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of

European Securities Network LLP (‘ESN’). ESN, its Members and their

affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable

for the proper and complete transmission of these reports nor for any

delay in their receipt. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, copying,

distribution, or taking of any action in reliance on these reports is strictly

prohibited. The views and expressions in the reports are expressions of

opinion and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without

notice. These reports may not be reproduced in whole or in part or passed

to third parties without permission. The information herein was obtained

from various sources. ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any

director, officer or employee thereof) do not guarantee their accuracy or

completeness, and neither ESN, nor its Members, nor its Members’

affiliates (nor any director, officer or employee thereof) shall be liable in

respect of any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential

losses arising from such errors or omissions. Neither the information

contained in these reports nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer,

or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any

options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities (‘related

investments’). These reports are prepared for the clients of the Members

of ESN only. They do not have regard to the specific investment

objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific

person who may receive any of these reports. Investors should seek

financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any

securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in these

reports and should understand that statements regarding future prospects

may not be realised. Investors should note that income from such

securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may

rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally

invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future

performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the

value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in

these reports. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose

value are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively

assume currency risk. ESN, its Members and their affiliates may submit a

pre-publication draft (without mentioning neither the recommendation nor

the target price/fair value) of its reports for review to the Investor Relations

Department of the issuer forming the subject of the report, solely for the

purpose of correcting any inadvertent material inaccuracies. Like all

members employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by

overall firm profitability For further details about the analyst certification,

the specific risks of the company and about the valuation methods used to

determine the price targets included in this report/note, please refer to the

specific disclaimer pages prepared by the ESN Members. In the case of a

short note please refer to the latest relevant published research on single

stock or contact the analyst named on the front of the report/note for

detailed information on the valuation methods, earning estimates and

risks. A full description of all the organisational and administrative

measures taken by the Members of ESN to manage interest and conflicts

of interest are available on the website of the Members. Research is

available through the ESN Members sales representative. ESN will

provide periodic updates on companies or sectors based on company-

specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other

publicly available information. Unless agreed in writing with an ESN

Member, this research is intended solely for internal use by the recipient.

Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into

Australia, Canada or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in

Australia, Canada or Japan or to any resident thereof. This document is

for distribution in the U.K. Only to persons who have professional

experience in matters relating to investments and fall within article 19(5) of

the financial services and markets act 2000 (financial promotion) order

2005 (the “order”) or (ii) are persons falling within article 49(2)(a) to (d) of

the order, namely high net worth companies, unincorporated associations

etc (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”).

This document must not be acted on or relied upon by persons who are

not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this

document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged

in only with relevant persons. The distribution of this document in other

jurisdictions or to residents of other jurisdictions may also be restricted by

law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should

inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. By accepting

this report you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions. You shall

indemnify ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or

employee thereof) against any damages, claims, losses, and detriments

resulting from or in connection with the unauthorized use of this document.

For disclosure upon “conflicts of interest” on the companies under

coverage by all the ESN Members and on each “company

recommendation history”, please visit the ESN website

(www.esnpartnership.eu) or refer to the ESN Members website. Additional

information is always available upon request. For additional information

and individual disclaimers please refer to www.esnpartnership.eu and

to each ESN Member websites:

www.bancaakros.it regulated by the CONSOB - Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa

www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários

www.cmcicms.com regulated by the AMF - Autorité des marchés financiers

www.equinet-ag.de regulated by the BaFin - Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht

www.ibg.gr regulated by the HCMC - Hellenic Capital Market Commission

www.nibcmarkets.com regulated by the AFM - Autoriteit Financiële Markten

www.op.fi regulated by the Financial Supervision Authority

www.valores.gvcgaesco.es regulated by CNMV - Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores

Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)

Caixa-Banco de Investimento

Rua Barata Salgueiro, nº 33

1269-057 Lisboa

Portugal

Phone: +351 21 313 73 00

Fax: +351 21 389 68 98

GVC Gaesco Beka, SV, SA

C/ Marques de Villamagna 3

28001 Madrid

Spain

Phone: +34 91 436 7813

Investment Bank of Greece

32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou,

151 25 Maroussi,

Greece

Tel: +30 210 81 73 383

Banca Akros S.p.A.

Viale Eginardo, 29

20149 MILANO

Italy

Phone: +39 02 43 444 389

Fax: +39 02 43 444 302

NIBC Markets N.V.

Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162

P.O.Box 235

1000 AE Amsterdam

The Netherlands

Phone: +31 20 550 8500

Fax: +31 20 626 8064

CM - CIC Market Solutions

6, avenue de Provence

75441 Paris

Cedex 09

France

Phone: +33 1 53 48 80 78

Fax: +33 1 53 48 82 25

equinet Bank AG

Gräfstraße 97

60487 Frankfurt am Main

Germany

Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 212

Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299

OP Corporate Bank plc

P.O.Box 308

Teollisuuskatu 1, 00013 Helsinki

Finland

Phone: +358 10 252 011

Fax: +358 10 252 2703

http://www.bancaakros.it/

http://www.caixabi.pt/

https://mail.esnpartnership.eu/owa/redir.aspx?C=8Zt3eXAOIkqYEQDE_-yjO4gceHQnAtMIAKuq5wlXoeMctWfJzR5HnUAHD5WapHeCCa8AyfgTFB4.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.cmcicms.com

http://www.equinet-ag.de/

http://www.ibg.gr/

http://www.nibcmarkets.com/

http://www.op.fi/

http://www.valores.gvcgaesco.es/

DEAR CLIENT, INVITATIONEDENRED Zurich Cross-country Company Roadshow 10/11/2016 ... ELTEL SS...

Documents

Transcript of DEAR CLIENT, INVITATIONEDENRED Zurich Cross-country Company Roadshow 10/11/2016 ... ELTEL SS...