Dealing with Urban Mobility Challenges - What can we learn from China?

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Dealing with Urban Mobility Challenges What Can We Learn From China? Xin Ding Consulting Analyst, Frost & Sullivan July 2014

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Transcript of Dealing with Urban Mobility Challenges - What can we learn from China?

Page 1: Dealing with Urban Mobility Challenges - What can we learn from China?

Dealing with Urban Mobility Challenges What Can We Learn From China?

Xin Ding

Consulting Analyst, Frost & Sullivan

July 2014

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Current Challenges in China’s Urban Cities are Similar to the Concerns in

Europe

Parking

- Beijing: 5.3 mn

vehicles vs. 2.7 mn

parking slots

-Shanghai: 2.6 million

vehicles vs. 780, 000

parking slots

Poor air quality Smog

Traffic congestion

80% of the roads and

90 % of the junction

have almost reached

capacity limit in urban

Chinese cities with >1

million inhabitants

Road Safety

Road fatalities at

62,387 in 2011 - 28%

are motorcycle users

Pollution

According to the World

Bank, 16 of the world’s

20 cities with the worst

air quality are in China

Increasing private car ownership and ridership Noise

Fast growing urban population

Decline in walking and bicycle using

Cities combining with suburbs to

form region

Insufficient public transportation linking

cities and suburbs

Increasing disposable

income

Rapid industrial development

Better payment terms to boost car purchase

Increasing usage of motorcycles

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Impact Trend

Fast growing urban population

Increased private car ownership and ridership

Rapid industrial development

Pollution China’s growing urban population is a concern as only 1% of China’s 560 urban cities

reach World Health Organisation’s safety norms for air quality

•Vehicle emissions contribute up to 60% of air pollution in

large cities

60% of particulate from heavy diesel-powered trucks

22% of particulate from passenger vehicles

•PM 2.5 reaches 4 times norm limits in major urban cities:

In 2010, more than 7,770 premature deaths were

directly linked to PM 2.5 pollution in Beijing, Shanghai,

Guangzhou and Xi’an

3 times as high as traffic casualties

Drivers

Beijing, January 2013, central district seen from above

in heavy smog

Source: Greenpeace and Beijing University, 2010 Source: NASA

low high

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Traffic Congestion The imbalance between rapid growing private car ownership and the slower pace of road

construction has caused severe traffic congestion in China’s urban cities

Private car ownership increased from 12 mn in 2003 to 93 mn in 2012

•Shanghai in the past decade:

Growth in private car ownership = 364 %

Increase in road capacity = 110%

•Guangzhou in the past 5 years:

Growth in private car ownership = 100 %

Increase in road capacity = 2 %

A 62-mile-long traffic jam on a highway

leading to Beijing on its ninth day, 2010

Impact Trend

Fast growing urban population

Increased private car ownership and ridership

Imbalance between the fast growing traffic and the

pace of road construction

Insufficient public transportation both inside cities

and linking cities and suburbs

Drivers

low high

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Road Safety Combining insufficient traffic management with inexperienced drivers and lax driving

habits, China has become one of the biggest contributors to the world’s traffic fatalities

• With only 3% of the world’s vehicles, China accounts for 24% of

the world’s traffic fatalities

• Road fatalities at 62,387 in 2011 - 28% are motorcycle users

• In 2011, the mortality rate from traffic accidents was 8.7 per

100,000 people in urban areas

• Traffic accidents cost the Chinese economy $21 billion a year.

Impact Trend

Inefficient regulation/management on vehicles

and circulation: scooters, motorcycles and cars

Inexperienced drivers due to loose execution on

getting driving licenses

Lax driving habits

Inefficient public transportation

Poor road conditions

Drivers

Scooters & bicycles circulate between

passenger cars , going into different directions:

very likely to cause traffic jam and road accident

low high

Source: WTO

September 2012, Shanghai: north-south and

east-west traffic to each other and lack of traffic

police to ease. Source: Dong Fang Daily

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Parking Private car ridership rise, along with the lack of regulations (on parking resources, prices,

proper development) and lack of management have led to a nation wide parking shortage

Impact Trend

Insufficient laws on forcing property owners to

provide adequate parking for cars, scooters,

bicycles and delivery vehicles

Insufficient management on parking lots

Increased private car ownership and ridership

Drivers

• Severe parking shortage in large urban cities:

Beijing:2.7 mn parking spaces (including 780 k in residential

areas) vs. 5.3 mn motor vehicles in the city

Shanghai: 780 k parking slots vs. 2.6 mn vehicles

Chongqing: short 190 k parking spaces and the deficit is

growing by 400 spaces / day

Xi’an: a deficit of 400 k parking spaces

• Parking fees likely account for more than 1/3 of the annual costs of

owning a car for owners who must pay for parking.

An open-air car park in Tianjin City

with 90 parking slots, 2010

Crowded road side parking with car parking

inside a playground, Taiyuan city, 2010

low high

Source: People’s Daily, Xinhua News

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Transport

Management

7 Major Initiatives have been Carried out by the Chinese Government

around 3 Pillars – Reduce Car Footprint Reduction, Transport Management,

Promote Green Transportation

Reduce Car

Footprint

Quota on new car plate

license 1

Restriction on

circulation 2

Improved public

transportation 4

Dedicated lanes for

bus & bikes 5

Government push for

car electrification 6

Small fuel-efficient

vehicles 7

Increased parking fees 3

Promote

Green

Transportation

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1 – Quota on New Car Plate License 4 cities in China have now implemented quota on new car plate licensing, some through a

plate lottery, some through auctions even bidding Resulted in the drop of car sales

2011 2012 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016

Initiatives

Results

Beijing

From 2011, new

registration limited at

240,000 per year

through license plate

lottery

Beijing

By the end of

2017, total motor

vehicle park at 6

mn (vs. 5.2 mn

end of 2012)

Guangzhou

From 2012, new registration

limited at 120,000 per year.

(50% license plate lottery

including 10% green vehicles

+ 50% plate auction)

Nationwide

8 new cities intent to

implement quota on

new registration in

2014

Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking

Beijing

Car sales dropped

56% in 2012

Guangzhou

• Car sales dropped 30% in

2012

• 60% mobility using public

transportation in 2012

Nationwide

Car sales expected to

drop approximately

400,000, which

accounts for 2% of

national sales

Beijing

25% reduction of

total amount of

pollutants

emission from

motor vehicle

Transferability to European cities

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Wenzhou

Guangdong Guangzhou

Harbin

Shenyang

Shenzhen Zhuhai

Beijing

Tianjin

Shanghai

Dalian

Nanjing

Suzhou

Jiangsu

Hefei Hangzhou

Urumqi Hohhot

Fuzhou

Xiamen

Changchun

Jinan Qingdao Shijiazhuang

Zhengzhou

Taiyuan

Guiyang Changsha

Nanchang

Wuhan

Haikou

Chengdu

Nanning

Chongqing

Yinchuan

Lanzhou

Xi’an

Kunming

Xining

Beijing

During restriction

period in 2009:

• Traffic volume

↓19.5%

• Average speed on

road network ↑15%

• PM10 emission ↓7%

2 - Restriction on Circulation Most tier 1 & 2 cities limited motorcycle use due to safety & environmental concerns. Some

also limited car use Reduced traffic and decreased pollution level for short-term.

Motorcycle authorized

Motorcycle limited (by time period, areas and license)

Motorcycle banned in central areas and/or stopped releasing license

Electric Scooters banned or limited

Car circulation limited

Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking

Initiatives

Nationwide

Restriction of

motorcycle circulation in

most urban cities

Results

Foshan:

Weigh of motorcycle in

urban mobility dropped

from 38.6% to 19.7%

Guangzhou:

• ↓20% accidents related

to motorcycles,

• ↓8% related death

Kunming:

↓35% death related to

motorcycles

Beijing

Car Use Restriction

based on odd and

even-numbered

license plates (during

certain periods)

Transferability to European cities

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Beijing

Started in April 2011 charge higher parking

fees in non-residential areas from 7am-9pm:

Parking fee paid per car / day raised to

100-150 yuan

3 – Increased Parking Fees Beijing has tripled its parking price in 13 central districts through a policy carried out in April

2011 Reduced parking usage and traffic volume after first month of implementation.

Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking

Initiatives Results

Beijing

1st month of implementation:

• Traffic volume ↓12% on average

• ↓25-35 minutes traffic jam in central areas

• Usage of car parking ↓23%

Roadside Parking

Open-air Ground Parking

Underground Parking

5

6

5

5

8

15 (from the 2nd hour)

Before

After

Before

After

Before

After

Parking price in central areas (price/hr in yuan)

Transferability to European cities

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4 – Improved Public Transportation The initiatives to improve public transportation not only include building new infrastructures

but also increasing convenience in links between different public transportation modes

City Suburbs Travel distance

Intercity

•Bus •Metro •Tramway •Bicycle

•Bicycle

•Suburb buses •Suburb trains

•Intercity Trains •Intercity Buses

Initiatives Results

Beijing

•7 new subway lines between 2009-2012

•153 new bus lines between 2009-2012

• 16 subway lines in 2012 covering 397 km (+50%

compared to 2009)

• Metro + Bus accounts for 39.7% of mobility

methods in 2012, compared to 29.8% in 2005

Hangzhou

Bicycle stands next to subway entrances

& bus stops

to ease commute between residence

and the closest public transportation

• Number of bicycle rent has doubled in 4 years

2009 (3.5 mn / year) vs. 2012 (7 mn / year)

• Bicycle rent helped reduce CO2 emission

370 k tonne saving from 2009-2012 if

compared with private car ride

Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking

Transferability to European cities

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5 – Dedicated Lanes for Buses & Bikes Traffic management has been improved by prioritising buses with dedicated lanes and by

separating motor vehicles from non-motor vehicles.

Initiatives Results Transferability to

European cities

• Installed dedicated lane for buses to

prioritise public transportation

ease traffic management

• 14 urban cities in China now have

developed BRT systems

• 5 on the plan

Kunming (first Chinese city to install dedicated

bus lane, in 1999)

Public transit mode share increased from

6% (1999) to 24% (2010).

Average waiting time for bus ↓59%

The bus lane increased capacity from

2,000 passengers/h per direction to 7,500

Bus Lane

Bikes and Scooters

BRT in Kunming City

Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking

Transferability to European cities

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6 – Government Push for Car Electrification Electric vehicles have been promoted by the government through subsidiaries & tax

reductions However, it hasn’t been effective to push the individual purchase of EVs

Initiatives Results Transferability to

European cities

Governmental objective in the

development of EVs

By 2015, sales target of 500,000

electric & hybrid vehicles

(5-year-plan 2011-2015)

• 80% of 27,800 new energy vehicles

(electric, hybrid, fuel cell & natural gas)

sold in 2012 were buses

• Sales of electric vehicles:

17,642 in 2013 vs. 12,791 in 2012

(38% increase)

less than 1% of total vehicle sales

Incentives and tax reductions

To promote EV sales

To ease R&D of EV industry and

industries supporting this matter (such

as battery suppliers)

Incentives on purchase of electric vehicle

implemented in urban cities (Shanghai,

Changchun, Shenzhen, Hefei, Hangzhou,

Guangzhou, etc)

Up to 60,000 yuan per vehicle for

100% electric passenger cars

Electric cars exempted from 10%

purchase tax up to end 2017

Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking

Transferability to European cities

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7 – Small Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Many automotive constructors see opportunities in small vehicles in China due to severe

pollution, congestion and parking shortage

Initiatives

Results

Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking

Increased sales of 1.6L and below passenger

cars in 2009-2010:

In 2009, ↑71% sales volume, reaching 7.2

mn units

=70% of total passenger car sales, reaching

its highest market share in history

Governmental

3000 yuan state

subsidy to owners

of 1.6L and below

passenger cars that

consume 20% less

energy than the

current standard

Governmental

2-year-long tax

reduction program for

purchase of 1.6L and

below passenger cars

Vehicle purchasing

tax at 5% (2009) and

7.5% (2010) instead of

10%

Industrial

• Vehicle constructors see rising opportunities in small

vehicles in China due to high level of pollution and

congestion, as well as increasing parking shortage

• Toyota, Dongfeng, Ford, Nissan, VW etc intend to

increase proportion of small vehicles in their product

portfolio in China to reduce emission and promote

energy saving

2009 2010 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014

Toyota China released in

2013 a small car strategy:

A New VIOS and Toyota

YARIS was released

GAC Toyota plans to

sell 500,000 units in

2015, of which 40%

are small & medium

cars

Transferability to European cities

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Most Efficient Solutions to Urban Mobility Challenges Restriction on car circulation, improved public transportation, dedicated lane for bus & bikes

and small fuel-efficient vehicles

European Countries Solutions from China

Already in place

Good idea?

Transferable Pollution Congestion Safety Parking

Quota on new vehicle purchase

1

Restriction on circulation

2

Increased parking fees

3

Improved public transportation

4

Dedicated lane for bus & bikes

5

Government push for car electrification

6

Small fuel-efficient vehicles

7